Severe Hypoglycemia and Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Diabetes

A novel electronic health record-based, machine-learning model to predict severe hypoglycemia leading to hospitalizations in older adults with diabetes: A territory-wide cohort and modeling study

BACKGROUND

Older adults with diabetes are at high risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH). Many machine-learning (ML) models predict short-term hypoglycemia are not specific for older adults and show poor precision-recall. We aimed to develop a multidimensional, electronic health record (EHR)-based ML model to predict one-year risk of SH requiring hospitalization in older adults with diabetes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We adopted a case-control design for a retrospective territory-wide cohort of 1,456,618 records from 364,863 unique older adults (age ≥65 years) with diabetes and at least 1 Hong Kong Hospital Authority attendance from 2013 to 2018. We used 258 predictors including demographics, admissions, diagnoses, medications, and routine laboratory tests in a one-year period to predict SH events requiring hospitalization in the following 12 months. The cohort was randomly split into training, testing, and internal validation sets in a 7:2:1 ratio. Six ML algorithms were evaluated including logistic-regression, random forest, gradient boost machine, deep neural network (DNN), XGBoost, and Rulefit. We tested our model in a temporal validation cohort in the Hong Kong Diabetes Register with predictors defined in 2018 and outcome events defined in 2019. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) statistics, and positive predictive value (PPV). We identified 11,128 SH events requiring hospitalization during the observation periods. The XGBoost model yielded the best performance (AUROC = 0.978 [95% CI 0.972 to 0.984]; AUPRC = 0.670 [95% CI 0.652 to 0.688]; PPV = 0.721 [95% CI 0.703 to 0.739]). This was superior to an 11-variable conventional logistic-regression model comprised of age, sex, history of SH, hypertension, blood glucose, kidney function measurements, and use of oral glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) (AUROC = 0.906; AUPRC = 0.085; PPV = 0.468). Top impactful predictors included non-use of lipid-regulating drugs, in-patient admission, urgent emergency triage, insulin use, and history of SH. External validation in the HKDR cohort yielded AUROC of 0.856 [95% CI 0.838 to 0.873]. Main limitations of this study included limited transportability of the model and lack of geographically independent validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our novel-ML model demonstrated good discrimination and high precision in predicting one-year risk of SH requiring hospitalization. This may be integrated into EHR decision support systems for preemptive intervention in older adults at highest risk.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Cumulative HbA1c exposure as a CVD risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of ACCORD trial

AIMS

The study aimed to investigate the relationship between cumulative HbA1c exposure and cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

This study included 9307 participants from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. Cumulative HbA1c exposure was calculated as the area under the curve during exposure time.

RESULTS

After adjusting for covariates, a 1-SD increase in cumulative HbA1c exposure was significantly associated with a higher risk of the primary outcome (HR 1.32, 95 % CI: 1.22-1.43, P < 0.001), all-cause mortality (HR 1.33, 95 % CI: 1.21-1.46, P < 0.001), and cardiovascular death (HR 1.45, 95 % CI: 1.27-1.67, P < 0.001). These associations were independent of baseline HbA1c and the first HbA1c level after enrollment. Cross-tabulation analysis showed that participants in the intensive-therapy group with high baseline HbA1c and cumulative HbA1c exposure had a significantly higher risk of primary outcome, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cumulative HbA1c exposure was significantly associated with an increased risk of the primary outcome, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death among T2D patients. Patients with T2D should strive for stable glycemic control to reduce their risk of cardiovascular events, and that those with high baseline HbA1c may require more intensive therapy to achieve this goal.

Pioglitazone reduces cardiovascular events and dementia but increases bone fracture in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a national cohort study

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in elderly people has expanded rapidly. Considering cognitive impairment and being prone to hypoglycemia of the elder, the pros and cons of oral hypoglycemic agents (OHA) should be reassessed in this population. Pioglitazone might be appropriate for elderly DM patients because of its insulin-sensitizing effect and low risk of hypoglycemia. By using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, 191,937 types 2 diabetes patients aged ≥65 years under treatment between 2005 and 2013 were identified and further divided into two groups according to whether they received pioglitazone (pioglitazone group) or other OHAs (non-pioglitazone group) in the 3 months preceding their first outpatient visit date after 65 years of age, with a diagnosis of T2DM. Propensity score stabilization weight (PSSW) was used to balance the baseline characteristics. In results, the pioglitazone group (n = 17,388) exhibited a lower rate (per person-years) of major advanced cardiovascular events MACCE (2.76% vs. 3.03%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87-0.95), new- diagnosis dementia (1.32% vs. 1.46%, HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.98) but a higher rate of new-diagnosis bone fractures (5.37% vs. 4.47%, HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.19-1.28) than the non-pioglitazone group (n = 174,549). In conclusion, using pioglitazone may reduce the risks of MACCE and dementia but increases the probability of bone fractures in the elderly DM population.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2022 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2022 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population and an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, and the global burden of cardiovascular disease and healthy life expectancy.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Hypoglycemia, Vascular Disease and Cognitive Dysfunction in Diabetes: Insights from Text Mining-Based Reconstruction and Bioinformatics Analysis of the Gene Networks

Hypoglycemia has been recognized as a risk factor for diabetic vascular complications and cognitive decline, but the molecular mechanisms of the effect of hypoglycemia on target organs are not fully understood. In this work, gene networks of hypoglycemia and cardiovascular disease, diabetic retinopathy, diabetic nephropathy, diabetic neuropathy, cognitive decline, and Alzheimer's disease were reconstructed using ANDSystem, a text-mining-based tool. The gene network of hypoglycemia included 141 genes and 2467 interactions. Enrichment analysis of Gene Ontology (GO) biological processes showed that the regulation of insulin secretion, glucose homeostasis, apoptosis, nitric oxide biosynthesis, and cell signaling are significantly enriched for hypoglycemia. Among the network hubs, INS, IL6, LEP, TNF, IL1B, EGFR, and FOS had the highest betweenness centrality, while GPR142, MBOAT4, SLC5A4, IGFBP6, PPY, G6PC1, SLC2A2, GYS2, GCGR, and AQP7 demonstrated the highest cross-talk specificity. Hypoglycemia-related genes were overrepresented in the gene networks of diabetic complications and comorbidity; moreover, 14 genes were mutual for all studied disorders. Eleven GO biological processes (glucose homeostasis, nitric oxide biosynthesis, smooth muscle cell proliferation, ERK1 and ERK2 cascade, etc.) were overrepresented in all reconstructed networks. The obtained results expand our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying the deteriorating effects of hypoglycemia in diabetes-associated vascular disease and cognitive dysfunction.