COVID-19 and Rising Incidence of Diabetes: Despite Evolving Data, an Enigma Still to Be Solved

Risk of New-Onset Diabetes Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Real-World Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Studies of new-onset diabetes as a post-acute sequela of SARS-CoV-2 infection are difficult to generalize to all socio-demographic subgroups.

OBJECTIVE

To study the risk of new-onset diabetes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in a socio-demographically diverse sample.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of electronic health record (EHR) data available from the OneFlorida + clinical research network within the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet).

SUBJECTS

Persons aged 18 or older were included as part of an Exposed cohort (positive SARS-CoV-2 test or COVID-19 diagnosis between 1 March 2020 and 29 January 2022; n = 43,906), a contemporary unexposed cohort (negative SARS-CoV-2 test; n = 162,683), or an age-sex matched historical control cohort (index visits between 2 Mar 2018 and 30 Jan 2020; n = 40,957).

MAIN MEASURES

The primary outcome was new-onset type 2 diabetes ≥ 30 days after index visit. Hazard ratios and cases per 1000 person-years of new-onset diabetes were studied using target trial approaches for observational data. Associations were reported by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and hospitalization status subgroups.

KEY RESULTS

The sample was 62% female, 21.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 21.4% Hispanic; mean age was 51.8 (SD, 18.9) years. Relative to historical controls (cases, 28.2 [26.0-30.5]), the unexposed (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.18-1.39]; excess cases, [5.1-10.3]), and exposed cohorts (HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.50-1.80]; excess cases, 17.3 [13.7-20.8]) had higher risk of new-onset T2DM. Relative to the unexposed cohort, the exposed cohort had a higher risk (HR, 1.28 [1.19-1.37]); excess cases, 9.5 [6.4-12.7]). Findings were similar across subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The pandemic period was associated with increased T2DM cases across all socio-demographic subgroups; the greatest risk was observed among individuals exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

Incidence of new-onset hypertension before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic: a 7-year longitudinal cohort study in a large population

BACKGROUND

While the augmented incidence of diabetes after COVID-19 has been widely confirmed, controversial results are available on the risk of developing hypertension during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We designed a longitudinal cohort study to analyze a closed cohort followed up over a 7-year period, i.e., 3 years before and 3 years during the COVID-19 pandemic, and during 2023, when the pandemic was declared to be over. We analyzed medical records of more than 200,000 adults obtained from a cooperative of primary physicians from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2023. The main outcome was the new diagnosis of hypertension.

RESULTS

We evaluated 202,163 individuals in the pre-pandemic years and 190,743 in the pandemic years, totaling 206,857 when including 2023 data. The incidence rate of new hypertension was 2.11 (95% C.I. 2.08-2.15) per 100 person-years in the years 2017-2019, increasing to 5.20 (95% C.I. 5.14-5.26) in the period 2020-2022 (RR = 2.46), and to 6.76 (95% C.I. 6.64-6.88) in 2023. The marked difference in trends between the first and the two successive observation periods was substantiated by the fitted regression lines of two Poisson models conducted on the monthly log-incidence of hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

We detected a significant increase in new-onset hypertension during the COVID-19 pandemic, which at the end of the observation period affected ~ 20% of the studied cohort, a percentage higher than the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection within the same time frame. This observation suggests that increased attention to hypertension screening should not be limited to individuals who are aware of having contracted the infection but should be extended to the entire population.

Endothelial Extracellular Vesicles Enriched in microRNA-34a Predict New-Onset Diabetes in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Patients: Novel Insights for Long COVID Metabolic Sequelae

Emerging evidence indicates that the relationship between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and diabetes is 2-fold: 1) it is known that the presence of diabetes and other metabolic alterations poses a considerably high risk to develop a severe COVID-19; 2) patients who survived a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection have an increased risk of developing new-onset diabetes. However, the mechanisms underlying this association are mostly unknown, and there are no reliable biomarkers to predict the development of new-onset diabetes. In the present study, we demonstrate that a specific microRNA (miR-34a) contained in circulating extracellular vesicles released by endothelial cells reliably predicts the risk of developing new-onset diabetes in COVID-19. This association was independent of age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking status, and D-dimer. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: We demonstrate for the first time that a specific microRNA (miR-34a) contained in circulating extracellular vesicles released by endothelial cells is able to reliably predict the risk of developing diabetes after having contracted coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This association was independent of age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking status, and D-dimer. Our findings are also relevant when considering the emerging importance of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19, with systemic manifestations observed even months after viral negativization (long COVID).

COVID-19, Pregnancy, and Diabetes Mellitus

During the severe acute respiratory distress virus coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, many women were infected during their pregnancies. The SARS-CoV-2-induced coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has an impact on maternal health and pregnancy outcomes; peripartum and perinatal morbidity and mortality are increased. Pregnancy is considered a risk factor for severe COVID-19 course. Additional risk factors during pregnancy are diabetes mellitus, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), and obesity. Systemic inflammation can lead to severe metabolic dysregulation with ketoacidosis. The endocrine pancreas is a target organ for SARS-CoV-2 and the fetal risk depends on inflammation of the placenta. Up to now there is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy leads to permanent diabetes in mothers or their offspring via triggering autoimmunity or beta cell destruction. The frequently observed increased prevalence of GDM compared to the years before the pandemic is most likely due to changed lifestyle during lockdown. Furthermore, severe COVID-19 may be associated with the development of GDM due to worsening of glucose tolerance. Vaccination with a mRNA vaccine is safe and highly effective to prevent infection and to reduce hospitalization. Registries support offering evidence-based recommendations on vaccination for pregnant women. Even with the current omicron virus variant, there are increased risks for symptomatic and unvaccinated pregnant women.

Incidence of type 2 diabetes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Naples, Italy: a longitudinal cohort study

Background

The association of COVID-19 with the development of new-onset diabetes has been recently investigated by several groups, yielding controversial results. Population studies currently available in the literature are mostly focused on type 1 diabetes (T1D), comparing patients with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test to individuals without COVID-19, especially in paediatric populations. In this study, we sought to determine the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

In this longitudinal cohort study, we analysed a cohort followed up over a 6-year period using an Interrupted Time Series approach, i.e. 3-years before and 3-years during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analysed data obtained from >200,000 adults in Naples (Italy) from January 1st 2017 to December 31st 2022. In this manner, we had the opportunity to compare the incidence of newly diagnosed T2D before (2017-2019) and during (2020-2022) the COVID-19 pandemic. The key inclusion criteria were age >18-year-old and data availability for the period of observation; patients with a diagnosis of diabetes obtained before 2017 were excluded. The main outcome of the study was the new diagnosis of T2D, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases 10 (ICD-X), including prescription of antidiabetic therapies for more than 30 days.

Findings

A total of 234,956 subjects were followed-up for at least 3-years before or 3-years during the COVID-19 pandemic and were included in the study; among these, 216,498 were analysed in the pre-pandemic years and 216,422 in the pandemic years. The incidence rate of T2D was 4.85 (95% CI, 4.68-5.02) per 1000 person-years in the period 2017-2019, vs 12.21 (95% CI, 11.94-12.48) per 1000 person-years in 2020-2022, with an increase of about twice and a half. Moreover, the doubling time of the number of new diagnoses of T2D estimated by unadjusted Poisson model was 97.12 (95% CI, 40.51-153.75) months in the prepandemic period vs 23.13 (95% CI, 16.02-41.59) months during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, these findings were also confirmed when examining patients with prediabetes.

Interpretation

Our data from this 6-year study on more than 200,000 adult participants indicate that the incidence of T2D was significantly higher during the pandemic compared to the pre-COVID-19 phase. As a consequence, the epidemiology of the disease may change in terms of rates of outcomes as well as public health costs. COVID-19 survivors, especially patients with prediabetes, may require specific clinical programs to prevent T2D.

Funding

The US National Institutes of Health (NIH: NIDDK, NHLBI, NCATS), Diabetes Action Research and Education Foundation, Weill-Caulier and Hirschl Trusts.