Excess total mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy: updated estimates indicate persistent excess in recent months

Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe

While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions with seemingly mild winters. The study aimed to establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences in vulnerability to low temperature. European weekly mortality data (2000-2019) were matched with meteorological data to determine for each region vulnerability to temperature decrease and the optimal temperature with lowest mortality. Regression models were developed to generalize and explain these findings considering regional temperature characteristics. Optimal temperature could be predicted based on local average summer temperature (R2 = 85.6%). Regional vulnerability to temperature decrease could be explained by combination of winter and summer temperatures (R2 = 86.1%). Regions with warm winters and cold summers showed the highest vulnerability to decrease of temperature during winter. Contrary to theories about economic disparities Eastern Europe exhibited resistance comparable to Scandinavia. The southern edges of Europe demonstrated serious low temperature vulnerability to decreased temperatures, even if temperature was relatively high around 20 °C. This suggests that the observed connection primarily reflects the modulation of the length of respiratory virus infection seasons by climate conditions, counterbalanced by varying levels of acquired immunity and the presence of heatwaves eliminating the most frail individuals. Thus, relatively low vulnerability and a flat mortality cycle in countries with harsh climates paradoxically imply the presence of threats throughout the whole year.

COVID-19 Marked a Change in the Scope of Occupational Medicine from Occupational to Work-Related Diseases and Total Worker Health®

The COVID-19 pandemic challenged occupational medicine, while its focus had already shifted from occupational diseases to work-related illnesses. Such a broader scope allowed the inclusion of transmissible diseases among the causes for concern in working settings. COVID-19 has had a profound impact globally, resulting in millions of infections, often lethal. From its appearance, COVID-19 was found to affect specific groups of workers at higher risk of contracting the virus due to their occupation or workplace conditions, which accounts for its consideration as a potential work-related disease. This overview examines various aspects of COVID-19 based on articles published in our journal. Specifically, the epidemiology of COVID-19 is discussed, including mortality rates and groups at higher risk. The diagnosis, measures to prevent contagion, vaccination efforts, long-term effects, and psychosocial factors are also summarized. The emerging picture is that COVID-19 has been a trigger accelerating the change of paradigm of occupational medicine, which is more and more concerned with prevention. Occupational Health contributes to health promotion and Total Worker Health®.

The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy: Updated Estimates for the Year 2021

Excess mortality estimates are considered relevant indicators of direct and indirect pandemic effects on the population. Scant data have been published on cause-specific excess mortality. Using individual-level administrative data covering the Pavia province of Italian northern Lombardy region, we provided all-cause and cause-specific raw (RMR) and age-standardized (ASMR) mortality rates in 2021 and 2015-2019, the rate ratio, and 95% confidence intervals, overall and by sex. We obtained the excess deaths in 2021 as the difference between the number of observed and expected deaths from all causes and the two leading causes of death (all neoplasms and circulatory system diseases) by fitting over-dispersed quasi-Poisson regression models, accounting for temporal, seasonal and demographic changes. The total ASMR in 2021 was 972.4/100,000 (6836 certified deaths), with the highest ASMRs for circulatory system diseases (272.6/100,000) and all neoplasms (270.3/100,000), followed by COVID-19 (94.8/100,000 and 662 deaths). Compared to the expected, we estimated a total of 6.2% excess deaths in 2021 (7.2% in males and 5.4% in females), with no excess deaths from all neoplasms and a 6.2% reduction from circulatory system diseases. COVID-19 continued to affect total mortality in 2021, albeit to a lesser extent than in 2020, consistently with national patterns.

Vaccinating Front-Line Healthcare Workers: Results of a Pre-Pandemic Cross-Sectional Study from North-Eastern Italy on First Responders

First responders are front-line healthcare workers who are potentially exposed to different infectious agents. Characterizing their knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) towards immunization, therefore, has the potential to significantly improve occupational health and safety. A cross-sectional study was performed in October 2018 using a sample of 161 first responders from the Parma Province (mean age 45.1 ± 14.1 years; seniority 10.8 ± 8.6 years). The participants were questioned on three recommended vaccinations (i.e., the seasonal influenza, measles, and pertussis vaccines) and on meningococcal vaccines (not officially recommended for first responders). The participant’s knowledge status and risk perception were assessed as percentage values through a specifically designed questionnaire. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for factors associated with vaccination status were calculated by means of a binary logistic regression analysis. The internal consistency result, calculated using a general knowledge test, was good (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.894), but the corresponding score was unsatisfying (46.5% ± 32.4), evidencing uncertainties surrounding the recommendations for measles and meningococcal vaccines (39.1% and 34.2% incorrect answers, respectively). While the large majority of respondents were favorable towards the meningococcal (89.4%), measles (87.5%), and pertussis vaccines (83.0%), 55.3% exhibited a favorable attitude toward the seasonal influenza vaccine, the uptake of which in 2018, was reported by 28.0% of respondents, compared to the self-reported lifetime status for meningitis (26.1%), measles (42.2%), and pertussis (34.8%). Not coincidentally, all assessed infections were associated with a low-risk perception score, particularly influenza (33.9% ± 18.4). Interestingly enough, neither knowledge status nor risk perception were associated with vaccination rates. More precisely, the main predictor for being vaccinated against seasonal influenza in 2018 was a seniority of ≥10 years (aOR 3.26, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.35–7.91), while both pertussis and measles were positively associated with higher educational achievement (aOR 3.27, 95%CI 1.29–8.30; and aOR 2.69, 95%CI 1.09–6.65, respectively). The reasons for vaccination gaps among the sampled first responders, apparently, did not find their roots in inappropriate knowledge status and risk perception alone. However, the very low rates of sampled immunization lead us to recommend stronger and more appropriate information campaigns.

Excess Mortality on Italian Small Islands during the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An Ecological Study

Small islands have been considered at an advantage when dealing with infectious diseases, including COVID-19, but the evidence is still lacking. Crude mortality rates (CMRs) and excess mortality rates (EMRs) were calculated for 35 municipalities on the Italian small islands for 2020 and 2021, and the corresponding estimates were compared to those of the parent provinces and the national estimates. Notification rates for COVID-19 were retrieved, but detailed data at the municipality level were not available. A relatively low CMR (1.069 per 100 per year, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.983−1.164) was identified in 2020, compared to 1.180, 95% CI 1.098−1.269 for 2021. EMRs of small islands ranged between −25.6% and +15.6% in 2020, and between −13.0% and +20.9% in 2021, with an average gain of +0.3% (95% CI −5.3 to +5.8) for the entirety of the assessed timeframe, and no substantial differences between 2020 and 2021 (pooled estimates of −4.1%, 95% CI −12.3 to 4.1 vs. 4.6%, 95% CI −3.1 to 12.4; p = 0.143). When dealing with COVID-19 notification rates, during the first wave, parent provinces of Italian small islands exhibited substantially lower estimates than those at the national level. Even though subsequent stages of the pandemic (i.e., second, third, and fourth waves) saw a drastic increase in the number of confirmed cases and CMR, estimates from small islands remained generally lower than those from parent provinces and the national level. In regression analysis, notification rates and mortality in the parent provinces were the main effectors of EMRs in the small islands (β = 0.469 and β = 22.768, p < 0.001 and p = 0.007, respectively). Contrarily, the management of incident cases in hospital infrastructures and ICUs was characterized as a negative predictor for EMR (β = −11.208, p = 0.008, and −59.700, p = 0.003, respectively). In summary, the study suggests a potential role of small geographical and population size in strengthening the effect of restrictive measures toward countering the spread and mortality rate of COVID-19.

No excess mortality among working-age Italians during the Omicron wave of Covid-19

BACKGROUND

This study provides updated estimates of the excess deaths in Italy with a focus on the working-age population.

METHODS

Over-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted on 2011-2019 mortality data, and including terms for age, calendar year and a smooth function of the week of the year, were used to estimate the expected number of deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. The excess deaths were then obtained by the difference between observed and expected deaths and reported according to the pandemic periods defined by the predominant circulating variant of SARS-CoV-2.

RESULTS

Around 170,700 excess deaths at all ages were estimated between March 2020 and March 2022 in Italy with most of the excess occurring during the pre-Delta and Delta period, and 2930 excess deaths (+2.5%) during the Omicron wave. The excesses among the working age population were: 10,425 deaths (+11.8%) during the pre-Delta period, 2460 (+9.4%) during the Delta wave, 283 (+2.2%) during the transition period to Delta. Mortality was lower than expected during the Omicron wave (-6.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Over the periods preceding the Omicron wave, Covid-19 caused around 12,800 excess deaths among individuals of working age, accounting for over 10% excess death. This excess was no longer observed during the Omicron wave.

Updated estimates of excess total mortality in Italy during the circulation of the BA.2 and BA.4-5 Omicron variants: April-July 2022

BACKGROUND

The impact of new lineages and sub-lineages of Omicron on total and excess mortality is largely unknown. This study aims to provide estimates of excess mortality during the circulation of the Omicron variant in Italy updated to July 2022.

METHODS

Over-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted separately for men and women, on 2011-2019 mortality data were used to estimate the expected number of deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. The excess deaths were then obtained by the difference between observed and expected deaths and computed at all ages and at working ages (25-64 years).

RESULTS

Between April and June 2022, we estimated 9,631 excess deaths (+6.3%) at all ages (4,400 in April, 3,369 in May, 1,862 in June) and 12,090 in July 2022 (+23.4%). At working ages, the excess was 763 (+4.9%) in April-June 2022 and 679 (+13.0%) in July 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

Excess total mortality persisted during the circulation of different lineages and sub-lineages of the Omicron variant in Italy. This excess was not limited to the elderly population but involved also working age individuals, though the absolute number of deaths was small. The substantial excess found in July 2022 is, however, largely attributable to high temperatures. At the end of the year, this may translate into 30 to 35,000 excess deaths, i.e. over 5% excess mortality. This reversed the long-term trend toward increasing life expectancy, with the relative implications in social security and retirement schemes.