Interim estimates of 2013/14 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 from Canada s sentinel surveillance network, January 2014

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Persons Aged 15-64 Years: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Influenza is a respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, which is highly transmissible in humans. This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and test-negative designs (TNDs) to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of seasonal influenza vaccines (SIVs) in humans aged 15 to 64 years. An electronic search to identify all relevant studies was performed. The outcome measure of interest was VE on laboratory-confirmed influenza (any strain). Quality assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for RCTs and the ROBINS-I tool for TNDs. The search identified a total of 2993 records, but only 123 studies from 73 papers were included in the meta-analysis. Of these studies, 9 were RCTs and 116 were TNDs. The pooled VE was 48% (95% CI: 42-54) for RCTs, 55.4% (95% CI: 43.2-64.9) when there was a match between the vaccine and most prevalent circulating strains and 39.3% (95% CI: 23.5-51.9) otherwise. The TNDs' adjusted VE was equal to 39.9% (95% CI: 31-48), 45.1 (95% CI: 38.7-50.8) when there was a match and 35.1 (95% CI: 29.0-40.7) otherwise. The match between strains included in the vaccine and strains in circulation is the most important factor in the VE. It increases by more than 25% when there is a match with the most prevalent circulating strains. The laboratorial method for confirmation of influenza is a possible source of bias when estimating VE.

Age-Specific Etiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Infections and Influenza Vaccine Effectivity in Prevention of Hospitalization in Russia, 2018-2019 Season

The expansion and standardization of clinical trials, as well as the use of sensitive and specific molecular diagnostics methods, provide new information on the age-specific roles of influenza and other respiratory viruses in development of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI). Here, we present the results of the multicenter hospital-based study aimed to detect age-specific impact of influenza and other respiratory viruses (ORV). The 2018-2019 influenza season in Russia was characterized by co-circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) virus subtypes which were detected among hospitalized patients with SARI in 19.3% and 16.4%, respectively. RSV dominated among ORV (15.1% of total cases and 26.8% in infants aged ≤ 2 years). The most significant SARI agents in intensive care units were RSV and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, (37.3% and 25.4%, respectively, of PCR-positive cases). Hyperthermia was the most frequently registered symptom for influenza cases. In contrast, hypoxia, decreased blood O₂ concentration, and dyspnea were registered more often in RSV, rhinovirus, and metapneumovirus infection in young children. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against hospitalization of patients with PCR-confirmed influenza was evaluated using test-negative case-control design. IVE for children and adults was estimated to be 57.0% and 62.0%, respectively. Subtype specific IVE was higher against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, compared to influenza A(H3N2) (60.3% and 45.8%, respectively). This correlates with delayed antigenic drift of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and genetic heterogeneity of the influenza A(H3N2) population. These studies demonstrate the need to improve seasonal influenza prevention and control in all countries as states by the WHO Global Influenza Strategy for 2019-2030 initiative.

Antigenic drift of hemagglutinin and neuraminidase in seasonal H1N1 influenza viruses from Saudi Arabia in 2014 to 2015

Antigenic drift of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins of the influenza virus cause a decrease in vaccine efficacy. Since the information about the evolution of these viruses in Saudi is deficient so we investigated the genetic diversity of circulating H1N1 viruses. Nasopharyngeal aspirates/swabs collected from 149 patients hospitalized with flu-like symptoms during 2014 and 2015 were analyzed. Viral RNA extraction was followed by a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and genetic sequencing. We analyzed complete gene sequences of HA and NA from 80 positive isolates. Phylogenetic analysis of HA and NA genes of 80 isolates showed similar topologies and co-circulation of clades 6b. Genetic diversity was observed among circulating viruses belonging to clade 6B.1A. The amino acid residues in the HA epitope domain were under purifying selection. Amino acid changes at key antigenic sites, such as position S101N, S179N (antigenic site-Sa), I233T (antigenic site-Sb) in the head domain might have resulted in antigenic drift and emergence of variant viruses. For NA protein, 36% isolates showed the presence of amino acid changes such as V13I (n = 29), I314M (n = 29) and 12% had I34V (n = 10). However, H257Y mutation responsible for resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors was missing. The presence of amino acid changes at key antigenic sites and their topologies with structural mapping of residues under purifying selection highlights the importance of antigenic drift and warrants further characterization of recently circulating viruses in view of vaccine effectiveness. The co-circulation of several clades and the predominance of clade 6B.1 suggest multiple introductions in Saudi.

Interim estimates of 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, Canada, January 2019

Using a test-negative design, the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network assessed interim 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against predominant influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Adjusted VE was 72% (95% confidence interval: 60 to 81) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 illness. This substantial vaccine protection was observed in all age groups, notably young children who appeared to be disproportionately affected. Sequence analysis identified heterogeneity in emerging clade 6B.1 viruses but no dominant drift variant.

Using population-wide administrative and laboratory data to estimate type- and subtype-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness: a surveillance protocol

INTRODUCTION

The appropriateness of using routinely collected laboratory data combined with administrative data for estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is still being explored. This paper outlines a protocol to estimate influenza VE using linked laboratory and administrative data which could act as a companion to estimates derived from other methods.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will use the test-negative design to estimate VE for each influenza type/subtype and season. Province-wide individual-level records of positive and negative influenza tests at the Provincial Laboratory for Public Health in Alberta will be linked, by unique personal health numbers, to administrative databases and vaccination records held at the Ministry of Health in Alberta to determine covariates and influenza vaccination status, respectively. Covariates of interests include age, sex, immunocompromising chronic conditions and healthcare setting. Cases will be defined based on an individual's first positive influenza test during the season, and potential controls will be defined based on an individual's first negative influenza test during the season. One control for each case will be randomly selected based on the week the specimen was collected. We will estimate VE using multivariable logistic regression.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained from the University of Alberta's Health Research Ethics Board-Health Panel under study ID Pro00075997. Results will be disseminated by public health officials in Alberta.

Beyond Antigenic Match: Possible Agent-Host and Immuno-epidemiological Influences on Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness During the 2015-2016 Season in Canada

Background

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates for 2015-2016 seasonal influenza vaccine are reported from Canada's Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN). This season was characterized by a delayed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) epidemic and concurrent influenza B(Victoria) virus activity. Potential influences on VE beyond antigenic match are explored, including viral genomic variation, birth cohort effects, prior vaccination, and epidemic period.

Methods

VE was estimated by a test-negative design comparing the adjusted odds ratio for influenza test positivity among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated participants. Vaccine-virus relatedness was assessed by gene sequencing and hemagglutination inhibition assay.

Results

Analyses included 596 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 305 B(Victoria) cases and 926 test-negative controls. A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses were considered antigenically related to vaccine (unchanged since 2009), despite phylogenetic clustering within emerging clade 6B.1. The adjusted VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25%-57%). Compared to other age groups, VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was lower for adults born during 1957-1976 (25%; 95% CI, -16%-51%). The VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was also lower for participants consecutively vaccinated during both the current and prior seasons (41%; 95% CI, 18%-57%) than for those vaccinated during the current season only (75%; 95% CI, 45%-88%), and the VE among participants presenting in March-April 2016 (19%; 95% CI, -15%-44%) was lower than that among those presenting during January-February 2016 (62%; 95% CI, 44%-74%). The adjusted VE for B(Victoria) viruses was 54% (95% CI, 32%-68%), despite lineage-level mismatch to B(Yamagata) vaccine. The further variation in VE as observed for A(H1N1)pdm09 was not observed for B(Victoria).

Conclusions

Influenza VE findings may require consideration of other agent-host and immuno-epidemiologic influences on vaccine performance beyond antigenic match, including viral genomic variation, repeat vaccination, birth (immunological) cohort effects, and potential within-season waning of vaccine protection.

Early season co-circulation of influenza A(H3N2) and B(Yamagata): interim estimates of 2017/18 vaccine effectiveness, Canada, January 2018

Using a test-negative design, we assessed interim vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the 2017/18 epidemic of co-circulating influenza A(H3N2) and B(Yamagata) viruses. Adjusted VE for influenza A(H3N2), driven by a predominant subgroup of clade 3C.2a viruses with T131K + R142K + R261Q substitutions, was low at 17% (95% confidence interval (CI): −14 to 40). Adjusted VE for influenza B was higher at 55% (95% CI: 38 to 68) despite prominent use of trivalent vaccine containing lineage-mismatched influenza B(Victoria) antigen, suggesting cross-lineage protection.

Evaluation of the field-protective effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine among Korean children aged < 5 years during the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 influenza seasons: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

A field effectiveness evaluation of the influenza vaccine among children younger than five years is important due to the high burden of influenza in this age group. The epidemiology of influenza virus changes rapidly each year. Moreover, the development of a new type of influenza vaccine is accelerating, necessitating a new field effectiveness evaluation.

METHODS

This multi-center, open-label cohort study was conducted in the northern part of Seoul from December 2014 to May 2015 and in Gyeong-gi Province from December 2015 to May 2016. The cohort comprised an influenza vaccinated group and non-vaccinated group. During the influenza seasons, we conducted influenza rapid tests and polymerase chain reaction assays for individuals with suspected influenza and checked for the presence of influenza virus. We calculated the influenza vaccine effectiveness by comparing the incidence rates of influenza between the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups.

RESULTS

During the 2014-2015 season, the field effectiveness of the influenza vaccine was 38.4%. In particular, the vaccine effectiveness against type A influenza virus was 50.7%. During the 2015-2016 season, the vaccine effectiveness reached 23.8% and the vaccine effectiveness against type A influenza virus was 48.5%. The vaccine effectiveness against influenza B virus was markedly reduced in both seasons.

CONCLUSION

The influenza vaccine was supposed to be effective against influenza A, but may have a limited effectiveness against influenza B among Korean children aged < 5 years.

Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations - Latin America, 2013

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread utilization of influenza vaccines, effectiveness (VE) has not been routinely measured in Latin America.

METHODS

We used a case test-negative control design to estimate trivalent inactivated influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza among hospitalized children aged 6months-5years and adults aged ≥60years which are age-groups targeted for vaccination. We sought persons with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), hospitalized at 71 sentinel hospitals in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Paraguay during January-December 2013. Cases had an influenza virus infection confirmed by real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); controls had a negative rRT-PCR result for influenza viruses. We used a two-stage random effects model to estimate pooled VE per target age-group, adjusting for the month of illness onset, age and preexisting medical conditions.

RESULTS

We identified 2620 SARI patients across sites: 246 influenza cases and 720 influenza-negative controls aged ≤5years and 448 cases and 1206 controls aged ≥60years. The most commonly identified subtype among participants (48%) was the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus followed by influenza A(H3N2) (34%) and influenza B (18%) viruses. Among children, the adjusted VE of full vaccination (one dose for previously vaccinated or two if vaccine naïve) against any influenza virus SARI was 47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14-71%); VE was 58% (95% CI: 16-79%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 65% (95% CI: -9; 89%) against influenza A(H3N2) viruses associated SARI. Crude VE of full vaccination against influenza B viruses associated SARI among children was 3% (95% CI: -150; 63). Among adults aged ≥60years, adjusted VE against any influenza SARI was 48% (95% CI: 34-60%); VE was 54% (95% CI: 37-69%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 43% (95% CI: 18-61%) against influenza A(H3N2) and 34% (95% CI: -4; 58%) against B viruses associated SARI.

CONCLUSION

Influenza vaccine provided moderate protection against severe influenza illness among fully vaccinated young children and older adults, supporting current vaccination strategies.

Association between Haemagglutination inhibiting antibodies and protection against clade 6B viruses in 2013 and 2015

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of the pandemic A(H1N1) virus has been changing as population immunity continues to co-evolve with the virus. The impact of genetic changes in the virus on human's susceptibility is an outstanding important question in vaccine design. In a community-based study, we aim to (1) determine the genetic characteristics of 2009-2015 pandemic H1N1 viruses, (2) assess antibody response following natural infections and (3) assess the correlation of A/California/07/09 antibody titers to protection in the 2013 and 2015 epidemics.

METHODS

In a household transmission study, serum specimens from 253 individuals in Managua, Nicaragua were analyzed. Combined nose and throat swabs were collected to detect RT-PCR confirmed influenza infection and virus sequencing. Hemagglutination inhibition assays were performed and the protective titer for circulating H1N1pdm was determined.

RESULTS

Clade 6B pandemic H1N1 viruses predominated in Nicaragua during the 2013 and 2015 seasons. Our household transmission study detected a household secondary attack rate of 17% in 2013 and 33% in 2015. Infected individuals, including vaccinees, showed an apparent antibody response to A/California/07/09. Baseline titers of A/California/07/09 antibodies were found to associate with protection in both seasons. A titer of ≥1:40 correlated to a 44% protection in children, a 29% protection in adults 15-49years old and a 51% protection in adults 50-85years old.

CONCLUSION

In 2013 and 2015, antibody titers to A/California/07/09 associated with an infection risk reduction amongst exposed household contacts. This is consistent with a detectable vaccine effectiveness reported in a number of studies. Genetic changes in clade 6B viruses might have led to a reduced immunity in some whereas others might have been less affected. The use of human serologic data is important in virus characterization and if performed in a timely manner, could assist in vaccine strain selection.

National assessment of Canadian pandemic preparedness: Employing InFluNet to identify high-risk areas for inter-wave vaccine distribution

BACKGROUND

Influenza pandemics emerge at irregular and unpredictable intervals to cause substantial health, economic and social burdens. Optimizing health-system response is vital to mitigating the consequences of future pandemics.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model to assess the preparedness of Canadian health systems to accommodate pandemic-related increases in patient demand. We identify vulnerable areas, assess the potential of inter-wave vaccination to mitigate impacts and evaluate the association between demographic and health-system characteristics in order to identify predictors of pandemic consequences.

RESULTS

Modelled average attack rates were 23.7-37.2% with no intervention and 2.5-6.4% with pre-vaccination. Peak acute-care demand was 7.5-19.5% of capacity with no intervention and 0.6-2.6% with pre-vaccination. The peak ICU demand was 39.3-101.8% with no intervention and 2.9-13.3% with pre-vaccination. Total mortality was 2258-7944 with no intervention and 88-472 with pre-vaccination. Regions of Southern Ontario were identified as most vulnerable to surges in patient demand. The strongest predictors of peak acute-care demand and ICU demand were acute-care bed capacity (R = -0.8697; r2 = 0.7564) and ICU bed capacity (R = -0.8151; r2 = 0.6644), respectively. Demographic characteristics had mild associations with predicted pandemic consequences.

CONCLUSION

Inter-wave vaccination provided adequate acute-care resource protection under all scenarios; ICU resource adequacy was protected under mild disease assumptions, but moderate and severe diseases caused demand to exceed expected availability in 21% and 49% of study areas, respectively. Our study informs priority vaccine distribution strategies for pandemic planning, emphasizing the need for targeted early vaccine distribution to high-risk individuals and areas.

Concordance of interim and final estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review

The World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System meets twice a year to generate a recommendation for the composition of the seasonal influenza vaccine. Interim vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates provide a preliminary indication of influenza vaccine performance during the season and may be useful for decision making. We reviewed 17 pairs of studies reporting 33 pairs of interim and final estimates using the test-negative design to evaluate whether interim estimates can reliably predict final estimates. We examined features of the study design that may be correlated with interim estimates being substantially different from their final estimates and identified differences related to change in study period and concomitant changes in sample size, proportion vaccinated and proportion of cases. An absolute difference of no more than 10% between interim and final estimates was found for 18 of 33 reported pairs of estimates, including six of 12 pairs reporting VE against any influenza, six of 10 for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, four of seven for influenza A(H3N2) and two of four for influenza B. While we identified inconsistencies in the methods, the similarities between interim and final estimates support the utility of generating and disseminating preliminary estimates of VE while virus circulation is ongoing.

Effects of previous episodes of influenza and vaccination in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in Navarre, Spain, 2013/14 season

We estimated whether previous episodes of influenza and trivalent influenza vaccination prevented laboratory-confirmed influenza in Navarre, Spain, in season 2013/14. Patients with medically-attended influenza-like illness (MA-ILI) in hospitals (n = 645) and primary healthcare (n = 525) were included. We compared 589 influenza cases and 581 negative controls. MA-ILI related to a specific virus subtype in the previous five seasons was defined as a laboratory-confirmed influenza infection with the same virus subtype or MA-ILI during weeks when more than 25% of swabs were positive for this subtype. Persons with previous MA-ILI had 30% (95% confidence interval (CI): -7 to 54) lower risk of MA-ILI, and those with previous MA-ILI related to A(H1N1)pdm09 or A(H3N2) virus, had a, respectively, 63% (95% CI: 16-84) and 65% (95% CI: 13-86) lower risk of new laboratory-confirmed influenza by the same subtype. Overall adjusted vaccine effectiveness in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza was 31% (95% CI: 5-50): 45% (95% CI: 12-65) for A(H1N1)pdm09 and 20% (95% CI: -16 to 44) for A(H3N2). While a previous influenza episode induced high protection only against the same virus subtype, influenza vaccination provided low to moderate protection against all circulating subtypes. Influenza vaccine remains the main preventive option for high-risk populations.

Evaluation of influenza vaccine-immunogenicity in cell-mediated immunity

The immunological effect of influenza vaccines cannot be evaluated accurately using an antibody titer. Therefore, we used a new method that measures cell-mediated immunity to investigate changes in the amount of interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) produced after vaccination in response to the vaccine antigen. The study was conducted during the 2014-2015 influenza season in 23 adults, using a vaccine that contained three types of antigen. The IFN-γ level increased by at least 1.5 times in 65% (15/23) of cases in response to the H1N1 antigen, in 57% (13/23) of cases in response to the H3N2 antigen, and in 57% (13/23) of cases in response to the B antigen. During the study period, 4 subjects developed type A influenza. Our data showed that the IFN-γ level did not increase by 1.5 times in these subjects. We propose that the efficacy of influenza vaccines may be evaluated by measuring changes in the level of IFN-γ produced in response to influenza vaccine.

Interim estimates of 2015/16 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, Canada, February 2016

Using a test-negative design, the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN) assessed interim 2015/16 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Adjusted VE showed significant protection of 64% (95% confidence interval (CI): 44-77%) overall and 56% (95%CI: 26-73%) for adults between 20 and 64 years-old against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 illness. Among the 67 A(H1N1)pdm09-positive specimens that were successfully sequenced, 62 (> 90%) belonged to the emerging genetic 6B.1 subclade, defined by S162N (potential gain of glycosylation) and I216T mutations in the haemagglutinin protein. Findings from the Canadian SPSN indicate that the 2015/16 northern hemisphere vaccine provided significant protection against A(H1N1)pdm09 illness despite genetic evolution in circulating viruses.

Re-emergence of H3N2 strains carrying potential neutralizing mutations at the N-linked glycosylation site at the hemagglutinin head, post the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

Background

Seasonally prevalent H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses have evolved by antigenic drift; this evolution has resulted in the acquisition of asparagine (N)-linked glycosylation sites (NGSs) in the globular head of hemagglutinin (HA), thereby affecting the antigenic and receptor-binding properties, as well as virulence. An epidemiological survey indicated that although the traditional seasonal H1N1 strain had disappeared, H3N2 became predominant again in the seasons (2010–11 and 2011–12) immediately following the H1N1 pandemic of 2009. Interestingly, although the 2009 pandemic H1N1 strain (H1N1pdm09) lacks additional NGSs, clinically isolated H3N2 strains obtained during these seasons gained N (Asn) residues at positions 45 and 144 of HA that forms additional NGSs.

Methods

To investigate whether these NGSs are associated with re-emergence of H3N2 within the subtype, we tested the effect of amino acid substitutions on neutralizing activity by using the antisera raised against H3N2 strains with or without additional NGSs. Furthermore, because the N residue at position 144 of HA was identified as the site of mismatch between the vaccine and epidemic strains of 2011–2012, we generated mutant viruses by reverse genetics and tested the functional importance of this particular NGS for antibody-mediated neutralization by intranasal inoculation of mice.

Results

The results indicated that amino acid substitution at residue 144 significantly affected neutralization activity, acting as an escape mutation.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that the newly acquired NGSs in the HA globular head may play an important role in the re-emergence of endemic seasonal H3N2 strain by aiding the escape from humoral immunity.

Pooled influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates for Australia, 2012-2014

Data were pooled from three Australian sentinel general practice influenza surveillance networks to estimate Australia-wide influenza vaccine coverage and effectiveness against community presentations for laboratory-confirmed influenza for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Patients presenting with influenza-like illness at participating GP practices were swabbed and tested for influenza. The vaccination odds of patients testing positive were compared with patients testing negative to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) by logistic regression, adjusting for age group, week of presentation and network. Pooling of data across Australia increased the sample size for estimation from a minimum of 684 to 3,683 in 2012, from 314 to 2,042 in 2013 and from 497 to 3,074 in 2014. Overall VE was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24-49] in 2012, 60% (95% CI 45-70) in 2013 and 44% (95% CI 31-55) in 2014. For A(H1N1)pdm09 VE was 54% (95% CI-28 to 83) in 2012, 59% (95% CI 33-74) in 2013 and 55% (95% CI 39-67) in 2014. For A(H3N2), VE was 30% (95% CI 14-44) in 2012, 67% (95% CI 39-82) in 2013 and 26% (95% CI 1-45) in 2014. For influenza B, VE was stable across years at 56% (95% CI 37-70) in 2012, 57% (95% CI 30-73) in 2013 and 54% (95% CI 21-73) in 2014. Overall VE against influenza was low in 2012 and 2014 when A(H3N2) was the dominant strain and the vaccine was poorly matched. In contrast, overall VE was higher in 2013 when A(H1N1)pdm09 dominated and the vaccine was a better match. Pooling data can increase the sample available and enable more precise subtype- and age group-specific estimates, but limitations remain.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness for hospital and community patients using control groups with and without non-influenza respiratory viruses detected, Auckland, New Zealand 2014

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the protection afforded by inactivated influenza vaccine, in both community and hospital settings, in a well characterised urban population in Auckland during 2014.

METHODS

We used two different comparison groups, all patients who tested negative for influenza and only those patients who tested negative for influenza and had a non-influenza respiratory virus detected, to calculate the vaccine effectiveness in a test negative study design. Estimates were made separately for general practice outpatient consultations and hospitalised patients, stratified by age group and by influenza type and subtype. Vaccine status was confirmed by electronic record for general practice patients and all respiratory viruses were detected by real time polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

1039 hospitalised and 1154 general practice outpatient consultations met all the study inclusion criteria and had a respiratory sample tested for influenza and other respiratory viruses. Compared to general practice patients, hospitalised patients were more likely to be very young or very old, to be Māori or Pacific Islander, to have a low income and to suffer from chronic disease. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) adjusted for age and other participant characteristics using all influenza negative controls was 42% (95% CI: 16 to 60%) for hospitalised and 56% (95% CI: 35 to 70%) for general practice patients. The vaccine appeared to be most effective against the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strain with an adjusted VE of 62% (95% CI:38 to 77%) for hospitalised and 59% (95% CI:36 to 74%) for general practice patients, using influenza virus negative controls. Similar results found when patients testing positive for a non-influenza respiratory virus were used as the control group.

CONCLUSION

This study contributes to validation of the test negative design and confirms that inactivated influenza vaccines continue to provide modest but significant protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccination amongst Medical Students: A Social Network Analysis Based on a Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction

The Chief Medical Officer for England recommends that healthcare workers have a seasonal influenza vaccination in an attempt to protect both patients and NHS staff. Despite this, many healthcare workers do not have a seasonal influenza vaccination. Social network analysis is a well-established research approach that looks at individuals in the context of their social connections. We examine the effects of social networks on influenza vaccination decision and disease dynamics.

Methods

We used a social network analysis approach to look at vaccination distribution within the network of the Lancaster Medical School students and combined these data with the students’ beliefs about vaccination behaviours. We then developed a model which simulated influenza outbreaks to study the effects of preferentially vaccinating individuals within this network.

Results

Of the 253 eligible students, 217 (86%) provided relational data, and 65% of responders had received a seasonal influenza vaccination. Students who were vaccinated were more likely to think other medical students were vaccinated. However, there was no clustering of vaccinated individuals within the medical student social network. The influenza simulation model demonstrated that vaccination of well-connected individuals may have a disproportional effect on disease dynamics.

Conclusions

This medical student population exhibited vaccination coverage levels similar to those seen in other healthcare groups but below recommendations. However, in this population, a lack of vaccination clustering might provide natural protection from influenza outbreaks. An individual student’s perception of the vaccination coverage amongst their peers appears to correlate with their own decision to vaccinate, but the directionality of this relationship is not clear. When looking at the spread of disease within a population it is important to include social structures alongside vaccination data. Social networks influence disease epidemiology and vaccination campaigns designed with information from social networks could be a future target for policy makers.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Low-Income, Urban Community Cohort

In this community-based cohort study of 275 primarily low-income, urban households in New York City, overall 2013-2014 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 62.5% (95% confidence interval, 21.7%-82.0%). VE point estimates were highest against 2009 H1N1 and for those who were vaccinated in 2013-2014 but not in 2012-2013.

Effectiveness of Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Children Estimated by a Test-Negative Case-Control Design Study Based on Influenza Rapid Diagnostic Test Results

We assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza in children 6 months to 15 years of age in 22 hospitals in Japan during the 2013-14 season. Our study was conducted according to a test-negative case-control design based on influenza rapid diagnostic test (IRDT) results. Outpatients who came to our clinics with a fever of 38 °C or over and had undergone an IRDT were enrolled in this study. Patients with positive IRDT results were recorded as cases, and patients with negative results were recorded as controls. Between November 2013 and March 2014, a total of 4727 pediatric patients (6 months to 15 years of age) were enrolled: 876 were positive for influenza A, 66 for A(H1N1)pdm09 and in the other 810 the subtype was unknown; 1405 were positive for influenza B; and 2445 were negative for influenza. Overall VE was 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39-52). Adjusted VE against influenza A, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and influenza B was 63% (95% CI, 56-69), 77% (95% CI, 59-87), and 26% (95% CI, 14-36), respectively. Influenza vaccine was not effective against either influenza A or influenza B in infants 6 to 11 months of age. Two doses of influenza vaccine provided better protection against influenza A infection than a single dose did. VE against hospitalization influenza A infection was 76%. Influenza vaccine was effective against influenza A, especially against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, but was much less effective against influenza B.

Incidence of medically attended influenza infection and cases averted by vaccination, 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

We estimated the burden of outpatient influenza and cases prevented by vaccination during the 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 influenza seasons using data from the United States Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (US Flu VE) Network.

METHODS

We defined source populations of persons who could seek care for acute respiratory illness (ARI) at each of the five US Flu VE Network sites. We identified all members of the source population who were tested for influenza during US Flu VE influenza surveillance. Each influenza-positive subject received a sampling weight based on the proportion of source population members who were tested for influenza, stratified by site, age, and other factors. We used the sampling weights to estimate the cumulative incidence of medically attended influenza in the source populations. We estimated cases averted by vaccination using estimates of cumulative incidence, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness.

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence of medically attended influenza ranged from 0.8% to 2.8% across sites during 2011/2012 and from 2.6% to 6.5% during the 2012/2013 season. Stratified by age, incidence ranged from 1.2% among adults 50 years of age and older in 2011/2012 to 10.9% among children 6 months to 8 years of age in 2012/2013. Cases averted by vaccination ranged from 4 to 41 per 1000 vaccinees, depending on the study site and year.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of medically attended influenza varies greatly by year and even by geographic region within the same year. The number of cases averted by vaccination varies greatly based on overall incidence and on vaccine coverage.

Mid-Season Estimates of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness against Influenza A(H3N2) Hospitalization in the Elderly in Quebec, Canada, January 2015

BACKGROUND

The 2014/15 influenza season in Canada was characterized by an early epidemic due to vaccine-mismatched influenza A(H3N2) viruses, disproportionately affecting elderly individuals ≥65-years-old. We assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) against A(H3N2) hospitalization among elderly individuals during the peak weeks of the 2014/15 epidemic in Quebec, Canada.

METHODS

Nasal specimens and clinical/epidemiological data were collected within 7 days of illness onset from elderly patients admitted with respiratory symptoms to one of four participating hospitals between November 30, 2014 and January 13, 2015. Cases tested RT-PCR positive for influenza A(H3N2) and controls tested negative for any influenza. VE was assessed by test-negative case-control design.

RESULTS

There were 314 participants including 186 cases (62% vaccinated) and 128 controls (59% vaccinated) included in primary VE analysis. Median age was 81.5 years, two-thirds were admitted from the community and 91% had underlying comorbidity. Crude VE against A(H3N2) hospitalization was -17% (95%CI: -86% to 26%), decreasing to -23% (95%CI: -99 to 23%) with adjustment for age and comorbidity, and to -39% (95%CI: -142 to 20%) with additional adjustment for specimen collection interval, calendar time, type of residence and hospital. In sensitivity analyses, VE estimates were improved toward the null with restriction to participants admitted from the community (-2%; 95%CI: -105 to 49%) or with specimen collection ≤4 days since illness onset (- 8%; 95%CI: -104 to 43%) but further from the null with restriction to participants with comorbidity (-51%; 95%CI: -169 to 15%).

CONCLUSION

The 2014/15 mismatched influenza vaccine provided elderly patients with no cross-protection against hospitalization with the A(H3N2) epidemic strain, reinforcing the need for adjunct protective measures among high-risk individuals and improved vaccine options.

Evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness and description of circulating strains in outpatient settings in South Africa, 2014

The effectiveness of the trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2014 season in South Africa was assessed using a test-negative case-control study design including 472 cases and 362 controls. Influenza A(H3N2) was the dominant strain circulating. The overall vaccine effectiveness estimate, adjusted for age and underlying conditions, was 43·1% (95% CI: -26·8-74·5). 2014 H3N2 viruses from South Africa were mainly in sublineage 3C.3 with accumulation of amino acid changes that differentiate them from the vaccine strain in 3C.1.

Strengths and limitations of assessing influenza vaccine effectiveness using routinely collected, passive surveillance data in Ontario, Canada, 2007 to 2012: balancing efficiency versus quality

Prompt evaluation of annual influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) is important. IVE is estimated in Ontario using a test-negative design (TND) within a national sentinel surveillance network (SPSN). To explore alternative approaches, we applied the screening method (SM) during five seasons spanning 2007 to 2012 to passive surveillance data to determine whether routinely collected data could provide unbiased IVE estimates. Age-adjusted SM-IVE estimates, excluding 2008/09 pandemic cases and cases with missing immunisation status, were compared with TND-IVE estimates in SPSN participants, adjusted for age, comorbidity, week of illness onset and interval to specimen collection. In four seasons, including the 2009 pandemic, the SM underestimated IVE (22–39% seasonal; 72% pandemic) by 20 to 35% relative to the TND-IVE (58–63% seasonal; 93% pandemic), except for the 2010/11 season when both estimates were low (33% and 30%, respectively). Half of the cases in the routine surveillance data lacked immunisation information; imputing all to be unimmunised better aligned SM-IVE with TND-IVE, instead overestimating in four seasons by 4 to 29%. While the SM approach applied to routine data may offer the advantage of timeliness, ease and efficiency, methodological issues related to completeness of vaccine information and/or case ascertainment may constitute trade-offs in reliability.

Integrated Sentinel Surveillance Linking Genetic, Antigenic, and Epidemiologic Monitoring of Influenza Vaccine-Virus Relatedness and Effectiveness During the 2013-2014 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

Canada's Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network links genetic, antigenic, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) measures in an integrated platform of influenza monitoring, described here for the 2013-2014 influenza season of resurgent A(H1N1)pdm09 and late-season type B activity.

METHODS

VE was estimated as [1 - odds ratio] × 100% and compared vaccination status between individuals who tested positive (cases) and those who tested negative (controls) for influenza virus. Vaccine-virus relatedness was assessed by genomic sequence analysis and hemagglutination inhibition assays.

RESULTS

Analyses included 1037 controls (of whom 33% were vaccinated) and 663 cases (of whom 14% were vaccinated). A total of 415 cases tested positive for A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, 15 tested positive for A(H3N2) virus, 191 tested positive for B/Yamagata-lineage virus, 6 tested positive for B/Victoria-lineage virus, and 36 tested positive for viruses of unknown subtype or lineage. A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B, distinguished by a K163Q substitution, but remained antigenically similar to the A/California/07/2009-like vaccine strain, with an adjusted VE of 71% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58%-80%). Most B/Yamagata-lineage viruses (83%) clustered phylogenetically with the prior (ie, 2012-2013) season's B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like clade 3 vaccine strain, while only 17% clustered with the current (ie, 2013-2014) season's B/Massachusetts/02/2012-like clade 2 vaccine strain. The adjusted VE for B/Yamagata-lineage virus was 73% (95% CI, 57%-84%), with a lower VE obtained after partial calendar-time adjustment for clade-mismatched B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like virus (VE, 63%; 95% CI, 41%-77%), compared with that for clade-matched B/Massachusetts/02/2012-like virus (VE, 88%; 95% CI, 48%-97%). No A(H3N2) viruses clustered with the A/Texas/50/2012-like clade 3C.1 vaccine strain, and more than half were antigenically mismatched, but sparse data did not support VE estimation.

CONCLUSIONS

VE corresponded with antigenically conserved A(H1N1)pdm09 and lineage-matched B/Yamagata viruses with clade-level variation. Surveillance linking genotypic, phenotypic, and epidemiologic measures of vaccine-virus relatedness and effectiveness could better inform predictions of vaccine performance and reformulation.

Interim estimates of 2014/15 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) from Canada's Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network, January 2015

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Understanding influenza vaccine protection in the community: an assessment of the 2013 influenza season in Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND

The influenza virus undergoes frequent antigenic drift, necessitating annual review of the composition of the influenza vaccine. Vaccination is an important strategy for reducing the impact and burden of influenza, and estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) each year informs surveillance and preventative measures. We aimed to describe the influenza season and to estimate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in Victoria, Australia, in 2013.

METHODS

Routine laboratory notifications, general practitioner sentinel surveillance (including a medical deputising service) data, and sentinel hospital admission surveillance data for the influenza season (29 April to 27 October 2013) were collated in Victoria, Australia, to describe influenza-like illness or confirmed influenza during the season. General practitioner sentinel surveillance data were used to estimate VE against medically-attended laboratory confirmed influenza. VE was estimated using the case test negative design as 1-adjusted odds ratio (odds of vaccination in cases compared with controls) × 100%. Cases tested positive for influenza while non-cases (controls) tested negative. Estimates were adjusted for age group, week of onset, time to swabbing and co-morbidities.

RESULTS

The 2013 influenza season was characterised by relatively low activity with a late peak. Influenza B circulation preceded that of influenza A(H1)pdm09, with very little influenza A(H3) circulation. Adjusted VE for all influenza was 55% (95%CI: -11, 82), for influenza A(H1)pdm09 was 43% (95%CI: -132, 86), and for influenza B was 56% (95%CI: -51, 87) Imputation of missing data raised the influenza VE point estimate to 64% (95%CI: 13, 85).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians can continue to promote a positive approach to influenza vaccination, understanding that inactivated influenza vaccines prevent at least 50% of laboratory-confirmed outcomes in hospitals and the community.

Interim estimates of the effectiveness of seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in preventing influenza hospitalisations and primary care visits in Auckland, New Zealand, in 2014

We present preliminary results of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in New Zealand using a case test-negative design for 28 April to 31 August 2014. VE adjusted for age and time of admission among all ages against severe acute respiratory illness hospital presentation due to laboratory-confirmed influenza was 54% (95% CI: 19 to 74) and specifically against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 65% (95% CI:33 to 81). For influenza-confirmed primary care visits, VE was 67% (95% CI: 48 to 79) overall and 73% (95% CI: 50 to 85) against A(H1N1)pdm09.

Pre- and postpandemic estimates of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) seroprotection to inform surveillance-based incidence, by age, during the 2013-2014 epidemic in Canada

To understand the epidemic resurgence of influenza due to the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) strain (A[H1N1]pdm09) during the 2013-2014 influenza season, we compared age-related cross-sectional estimates of seroprotection before the pandemic (during 2009) and after the pandemic (during 2010 and 2013) to subsequent surveillance-based, laboratory-confirmed incidence of influenza due to A(H1N1)pdm09 in British Columbia, Canada. Prepandemic seroprotection was negligible except for very old adults (defined as adults aged ≥ 80 years), among whom 80% had seroprotection. Conversely, postpandemic seroprotection followed a U-shaped distribution, with detection in approximately 35%-45% of working-aged adults but in ≥ 70% of very old adults and young children, excluding children aged <5 years in 2013, among whom seroprotection again decreased to <20%. The incidence was 5-fold higher during 2013-2014, compared with 2010-2011, and was highest among children aged <5 years and working-aged adults, reflecting a mirror image of the age-based seroprotection data.

Influenza A H1N1 pandemic strain evolution--divergence and the potential for antigenic drift variants

The emergence of a novel A(H1N1) strain in 2009 was the first influenza pandemic of the genomic age, and unprecedented surveillance of the virus provides the opportunity to better understand the evolution of influenza. We examined changes in the nucleotide coding regions and the amino acid sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), and nucleoprotein (NP) segments of the A(H1N1)pdm09 strain using publicly available data. We calculated the nucleotide and amino acid hamming distance from the vaccine strain A/California/07/2009 for each sequence. We also estimated Pepitope-a measure of antigenic diversity based on changes in the epitope regions-for each isolate. Finally, we compared our results to A(H3N2) strains collected over the same period. Our analysis found that the mean hamming distance for the HA protein of the A(H1N1)pdm09 strain increased from 3.6 (standard deviation [SD]: 1.3) in 2009 to 11.7 (SD: 1.0) in 2013, while the mean hamming distance in the coding region increased from 7.4 (SD: 2.2) in 2009 to 28.3 (SD: 2.1) in 2013. These trends are broadly similar to the rate of mutation in H3N2 over the same time period. However, in contrast to H3N2 strains, the rate of mutation accumulation has slowed in recent years. Our results are notable because, over the course of the study, mutation rates in H3N2 similar to that seen with A(H1N1)pdm09 led to the emergence of two antigenic drift variants. However, while there has been an H1N1 epidemic in North America this season, evidence to date indicates the vaccine is still effective, suggesting the epidemic is not due to the emergence of an antigenic drift variant. Our results suggest that more research is needed to understand how viral mutations are related to vaccine effectiveness so that future vaccine choices and development can be more predictive.

Substantial Morbidity and Mortality Associated with Pandemic A/H1N1 Influenza in Mexico, Winter 2013-2014: Gradual Age Shift and Severity

BACKGROUND

A recrudescent wave of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 is underway in Mexico in winter 2013-14, following a mild 2012-13 A/H3N2 influenza season. Mexico previously experienced several waves of pandemic A/H1N1 activity in spring, summer and fall 2009 and winter 2011-2012, with a gradual shift of influenza-related hospitalizations and deaths towards older ages. Here we describe changes in the epidemiology of the 2013-14 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak, relative to previous seasons dominated by the A/H1N1 pandemic virus. The analysis is intended to guide public health intervention strategies in near real time.

METHODS

We analyzed demographic and geographic data on hospitalizations with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza hospitalizations, and inpatient deaths, from a large prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security medical system during 01-October 2013 to 31-Jan 2014. We characterized the age and regional patterns of influenza activity relative to the preceding 2011-2012 A/H1N1 influenza epidemic. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of daily case incidence by date of symptoms onset.

RESULTS

A total of 7,886 SARI hospitalizations and 529 inpatient-deaths (3.2%) were reported between 01-October 2013 and 31-January 2014 (resulting in 3.2 laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 hospitalizations per 100,00 and 0.52 laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1-positive deaths per 100,000). The progression of daily SARI hospitalizations in 2013-14 exceeded that observed during the 2011-2012 A/H1N1 epidemic. The mean age of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 patients in 2013-14 was 41.1 y (SD=20.3) for hospitalizations and 49.2 y (SD=16.7) for deaths. Rates of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths were significantly higher among individuals aged 30-59 y and lower among younger age groups for the ongoing 2013-2014 epidemic, compared to the 2011-12 A/H1N1 epidemic (Chi-square test, P<0.001). The reproduction number of the winter 2013-14 wave in central Mexico was estimated at 1.3-1.4 which is slightly higher than that reported for the 2011-2012 A/H1N1 epidemic.

CONCLUSIONS

We have documented a substantial and ongoing increase in the number of A/H1N1-related hospitalizations and deaths during the period October 2013-January 2014 and a proportionate shift of severe disease to middle aged adults, relative to the preceding A/H1N1 2011-2012 epidemic in Mexico. In the absence of clear antigenic drift in globally circulating A/H1N1 viruses in the post-pandemic period, the gradual change in the age distribution of A/H1N1 infections observed in Mexico suggests a slow build-up of immunity among younger populations, reminiscent of the age profile of past pandemics.

Interim estimates of 2013/14 influenza clinical severity and vaccine effectiveness in the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalisation, Canada, February 2014

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Influenza vaccine effectiveness in Spain 2013/14: subtype-specific early estimates using the cycEVA study

Adjusted early estimates of the 2013/14 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Spain for all age groups was 35% (95% CI: -9 to 62), 33% (95% CI: -33 to 67) and 28% (95% CI: -33 to 61) against any influenza virus type, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses, respectively. For the population targeted for vaccination, the adjusted VE was 44% (95% CI: -11 to 72), 36% (95% CI: -64 to 75) and 42% (95% CI: -29 to 74), respectively. These preliminary results in Spain suggest a suboptimal protective effect of the vaccine against circulating influenza viruses.

Vaccine effectiveness in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in Navarre, Spain: 2013/14 mid-season analysis

We estimate mid-2013/14 season vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the influenza trivalent vaccine in Navarre, Spain. Influenza-like illness cases attended in hospital (n=431) and primary healthcare (n=344) were included. The overall adjusted VE in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza was 24% (95% CI: -14 to 50). The VE was 40% (95% CI: -12 to 68) against influenza A(H1)pdm09 and 13% (95% CI: -36 to 45) against influenza A(H3). These results suggest a moderate preventive effect against influenza A(H1)pdm09 and low protection against influenza A(H3).