Closing gaps for performing a risk assessment on Listeria monocytogenes in ready‐to‐eat (RTE) foods: activity 2, a quantitative risk characterization on L. monocytogenes in RTE foods; starting from the retail stage

Combined stochastic modelling of pathogenic and spoilage microorganisms

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of pathogens in food safety is well established, but steps are being taken to expand this methodology to food spoilage. Parallels can be drawn between the steps involved in a QMRA for pathogens and its application to specific spoilage organisms (SSO). During hazard characterisation for pathogens, the appropriate dose-response model is used to link the hazard level to the health outcome by estimating the probability of illness, resulting from the ingestion of a certain dose of the hazard. The dose-response model, in the case of food spoilage, may be translated into a spoilage-response relationship linking the spoilage-level with the probability the consumer will discard the food and not consume it. Such models are developed with sensory testing, assessing consumers sensitivity to microbial spoilage quality defects and correlating them to the SSO concentration. Ignoring food spoilage before the stated expiration date can lead to the final health risk being overestimated, since cases in which the food item poses a real risk to the consumer but is not consumed due to perceived spoilage are not excluded. Plenty of risk assessments have been carried out for pathogens in different RTE foods. What is missing is the integration of the two approaches into a single model that can estimate the risk of illness, factoring in the variability of consumer responses to spoilage. The spoilage-response relationship was combined with a stochastic modelling approach for lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and Listeria monocytogenes growth, also taking into account microbial interaction between LAB and L. monocytogenes (Jameson effect) to increase accuracy. The comparison of results between the 'Baseline' and the 'Spoilage-informed' approach showed significant difference in listeriosis cases, both for consumers under and over 65 years old. These results may suggest, that the hypothesis about overestimation of listeriosis risk in case of not taking into account product spoilage is correct. The combined QMRA model developed in the present study can be a useful tool for risk management decisions in the meat industry.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Salmonella in fresh chicken patties

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has witnessed rapid development within the context of food safety in recent years. As a means of contributing to these advancements, a QMRA for Salmonella spp. in fresh chicken patties for the general European Union (EU) population was developed. A two-dimensional (Second Order) Monte-Carlo simulation method was used for separating variability and uncertainty of model's parameters. The stages of industrial processing, retail storage, domestic storage, and cooking in the domestic environment were considered in the exposure assessment. For hazard characterization, a dose-response model was developed by combining 8 published dose-response models using a Pert distribution for describing uncertainty. The QMRA model predicted a mean probability of illness of 1.19*10-4 (5.28*10-5 - 3.57*10-4 95 % C.I.), and a mean annual number of illnesses per 100,000 people of 2.13 (0.96 - 6.59 95 % C.I.). Moreover, sensitivity analysis was performed, and variability in cooking preferences was found to be the most influential model parameter (r = -0.39), followed by dose-response related variability (r = 0.22), and variability in the concentration of Salmonella spp. at the time of introduction at the processing facility (r = 0.11). Various mitigation strategy scenarios were tested, from which, "increasing the internal temperature of cooking" and "decreasing shelf life" were estimated to be the most effective in reducing the predicted risk of illness. Salmonella-related illnesses exhibit particularly high severity, making them some of the most prominent zoonotic diseases in the EU. Regular monitoring of this hazard in order to further highlight its related parameters and causes is a necessary procedure. This study not only provides an updated assessment of Salmonella spp. risk associated with chicken patties, but also facilitates the identification of crucial targets for scientific investigation and implementation of real-world intervention strategies.

Risk factors for listeriosis due to sausage consumption in Mexico: consumer practices, bacterial survival, and quantitative microbial risk assessment

Listeriosis is a foodborne disease caused by Listeria monocytogenes (Lm), which represents a public health problem. Lm has been identified as an important contaminating bacterium of ready-to-eat meat products (RTEM) in Mexico. The objective was to explore the risk factors for acquiring listeriosis due to sausage consumption by defining the consumer profile, evaluating the survival of Lm in sausage (5, 10, and 25 °C for 32 days) and performing a quantitative microbiological risk assessment. The survey of 100 participants revealed that the factors compromising the safety of the RTEM by the consumer are the extension of the shelf life. Acquiring packaged RTEM was observed as a safe habit. All respondents stated that they were unaware of listeriosis, but 18% reported infections linked to RTEM, mainly sausage. The sausage supports the growth of Lm, whose population increases in congruence with temperature (25 °C > 10 °C >5 °C) and storage time (P ≤ 0.05). The increase in temperature decreases the adaptation time (Lag25 °C = 1.0 h, Lag10 °C= 92.5 h, Lag5 °C = 226.1 h) and increases the growth rate (μ25 °C = 4.43 CFU/h, μ10 °C = 0.075 CFU/h, μ5 °C = 0.0026 CFU/h) of Lm on the sausage. The risk of listeriosis due to sausage consumption increased according to the increase in temperature: 5.53 × 10-8-1.42 × 10-5 (5 °C), 0.00616-0.111 (10 °C), and 0.109-1.00 (25 °C). Consumer education in the hygienic management of RTEM and information on associated pathogens will minimize the risk of disease.

From Cheese-Making to Consumption: Exploring the Microbial Safety of Cheeses through Predictive Microbiology Models

Cheeses are traditional products widely consumed throughout the world that have been frequently implicated in foodborne outbreaks. Predictive microbiology models are relevant tools to estimate microbial behavior in these products. The objective of this study was to conduct a review on the available modeling approaches developed in cheeses, and to identify the main microbial targets of concern and the factors affecting microbial behavior in these products. Listeria monocytogenes has been identified as the main hazard evaluated in modelling studies. The pH, a_w, lactic acid concentration and temperature have been the main factors contemplated as independent variables in models. Other aspects such as the use of raw or pasteurized milk, starter cultures, and factors inherent to the contaminating pathogen have also been evaluated. In general, depending on the production process, storage conditions, and physicochemical characteristics, microorganisms can grow or die-off in cheeses. The classical two-step modeling has been the most common approach performed to develop predictive models. Other modeling approaches, including microbial interaction, growth boundary, response surface methodology, and neural networks, have also been performed. Validated models have been integrated into user-friendly software tools to be used to obtain estimates of microbial behavior in a quick and easy manner. Future studies should investigate the fate of other target bacterial pathogens, such as spore-forming bacteria, and the dynamic character of the production process of cheeses, among other aspects. The information compiled in this study helps to deepen the knowledge on the predictive microbiology field in the context of cheese production and storage.

Modelling the piezo-protection effect exerted by lactate on the high pressure resistance of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked ham

Food safety is often based on the application of several preservative (hurdle) factors whose combination must be smartly selected. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of lactate and diacetate on the high pressure processing (HPP) inactivation of three L. monocytogenes strains (CTC1011, CTC1034 and Scott A) in sliced cooked ham. Inoculated vacuum-packed slices of cooked ham formulated without organic acids and with lactate, diacetate or the combination of both were pressurized at 400 MPa for different holding times and the inactivation kinetics were characterised by fitting primary and secondary models. The shape of the inactivation curves for L. monocytogenes depended on both product formulation and strain. Interestingly, lactate caused a dose-dependent piezo-protection in all three strains, as the HPP inactivation rate decreased in cooked ham formulated with increasing amounts of lactate and in comparison with the control product. The design, validation and implementation of HPP requires a tailor-made approach, considering product formulation and selection of strain/s.

The public health risk posed by Listeria monocytogenes in frozen fruit and vegetables including herbs, blanched during processing

A multi-country outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes ST6 linked to blanched frozen vegetables (bfV) took place in the EU (2015-2018). Evidence of food-borne outbreaks shows that L. monocytogenes is the most relevant pathogen associated with bfV. The probability of illness per serving of uncooked bfV, for the elderly (65-74 years old) population, is up to 3,600 times greater than cooked bfV and very likely lower than any of the evaluated ready-to-eat food categories. The main factors affecting contamination and growth of L. monocytogenes in bfV during processing are the hygiene of the raw materials and process water; the hygienic conditions of the food processing environment (FPE); and the time/Temperature (t/T) combinations used for storage and processing (e.g. blanching, cooling). Relevant factors after processing are the intrinsic characteristics of the bfV, the t/T combinations used for thawing and storage and subsequent cooking conditions, unless eaten uncooked. Analysis of the possible control options suggests that application of a complete HACCP plan is either not possible or would not further enhance food safety. Instead, specific prerequisite programmes (PRP) and operational PRP activities should be applied such as cleaning and disinfection of the FPE, water control, t/T control and product information and consumer awareness. The occurrence of low levels of L. monocytogenes at the end of the production process (e.g. < 10 CFU/g) would be compatible with the limit of 100 CFU/g at the moment of consumption if any labelling recommendations are strictly followed (i.e. 24 h at 5°C). Under reasonably foreseeable conditions of use (i.e. 48 h at 12°C), L. monocytogenes levels need to be considerably lower (not detected in 25 g). Routine monitoring programmes for L. monocytogenes should be designed following a risk-based approach and regularly revised based on trend analysis, being FPE monitoring a key activity in the frozen vegetable industry.

An Assessment of Listeriosis Risk Associated with a Contaminated Production Lot of Frozen Vegetables Consumed under Alternative Consumer Handling Scenarios

Frozen foods do not support the growth of Listeria monocytogenes (LM) and should be handled appropriately for safety. However, consumer trends regarding preparation of some frozen foods may contribute to the risk of foodborne listeriosis, specifically when cooking instructions are not followed and frozen products are instead added directly to smoothies or salads. A quantitative microbial risk assessment model FFLLoRA (Frozen Food Listeria Lot Risk Assessment) was developed to assess the lot-level listeriosis risk due to LM contamination in frozen vegetables consumed as a ready-to-eat food. The model was designed to estimate listeriosis risk per serving and the number of illnesses per production lot of frozen vegetables contaminated with LM, considering individual facility factors such as lot size, prevalence of LM contamination, and consumer handling prior to consumption. A production lot of 1 million packages with 10 servings each was assumed. When at least half of the servings were cooked prior to consumption, the median risk of invasive listeriosis per serving in both the general and susceptible population was <1.0 × 10^-16 with the median (5th, 95th percentiles) predicted number of illnesses per lot as 0 (0, 0) and 0 (0, 1) under the exponential and Weibull-gamma dose-response functions, respectively. In scenarios in which all servings are consumed as ready-to-eat, the median predicted risk per serving was 1.8 × 10^-13 and 7.8 × 10^-12 in the general and susceptible populations, respectively. The median (5th, 95th percentile) number of illnesses was 0 (0, 0) and 0 (0, 6) for the exponential and Weibull-Gamma models, respectively. Classification tree analysis highlighted initial concentration of LM in the lot, temperature at which the product is thawed, and whether a serving is cooked as main predictors for illness from a lot. Overall, the FFLLoRA provides frozen food manufacturers with a tool to assess LM contamination and consumer behavior when managing rare and/or minimal contamination events in frozen foods.

A State-of-Art Review on Multi-Drug Resistant Pathogens in Foods of Animal Origin: Risk Factors and Mitigation Strategies

Most of the foodborne microbial diseases are linked to foods of animal origin such as milk, meat, and poultry. Nowadays, the presence of multi-drug resistant (MDR) pathogens in foods is becoming an increasingly public health concern worldwide due to the overuse of antimicrobial drugs in animal feed. MDR pathogens can enter the food chain by posing a significant risk to both animals and consumers. MDR pathogens causing infections are untreatable due to their resistance to various antibiotics, primarily cephalosporin and carbapenems and to their extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing capability. In addition, foods of animal origin and food-related environments can be likely vehicles for spreading of multi-drug resistance genes, which accelerates the thriving of global antibiotic resistance. This paper reviews the role of foods of animal origin as a vehicle for MDR pathogens, stressing the contribution of food processes, environments, and storage conditions in dissemination and reduction of antimicrobial resistances (AMRs). Controlling the growth of MDR microorganisms and limiting the transmission/expression of AMR genes in food ecosystems could be an effective mitigation strategy, putting the focus on food processes as a part of the solution for AMR in foods. Bioprotective cultures are also a promising and environmentally friendly technology to reduce the incidence of MDR pathogens, though caution is taken as microbial starters and probiotics can also carry AMR. Finally, applying Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) and predictive microbiology, within a Risk Assessment framework, is key to get insight into those mechanisms and conditions along the food chain favoring or reducing AMR.

Listeria monocytogenes contamination of ready-to-eat foods and the risk for human health in the EU

Food safety criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) foods have been applied from 2006 onwards (Commission Regulation (EC) 2073/2005). Still, human invasive listeriosis was reported to increase over the period 2009-2013 in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). Time series analysis for the 2008-2015 period in the EU/EEA indicated an increasing trend of the monthly notified incidence rate of confirmed human invasive listeriosis of the over 75 age groups and female age group between 25 and 44 years old (probably related to pregnancies). A conceptual model was used to identify factors in the food chain as potential drivers for L. monocytogenes contamination of RTE foods and listeriosis. Factors were related to the host (i. population size of the elderly and/or susceptible people; ii. underlying condition rate), the food (iii. L. monocytogenes prevalence in RTE food at retail; iv. L. monocytogenes concentration in RTE food at retail; v. storage conditions after retail; vi. consumption), the national surveillance systems (vii. improved surveillance), and/or the bacterium (viii. virulence). Factors considered likely to be responsible for the increasing trend in cases are the increased population size of the elderly and susceptible population except for the 25-44 female age group. For the increased incidence rates and cases, the likely factor is the increased proportion of susceptible persons in the age groups over 45 years old for both genders. Quantitative modelling suggests that more than 90% of invasive listeriosis is caused by ingestion of RTE food containing > 2,000 colony forming units (CFU)/g, and that one-third of cases are due to growth in the consumer phase. Awareness should be increased among stakeholders, especially in relation to susceptible risk groups. Innovative methodologies including whole genome sequencing (WGS) for strain identification and monitoring of trends are recommended.

Guidance on the requirements for the development of microbiological criteria

The European Food Safety Authority asked the Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ) to deliver a scientific opinion providing: (i) a review of the approaches used by the BIOHAZ Panel to address requests from risk managers to suggest the establishment of microbiological criteria; (ii) guidance on the required scientific evidence, data and methods/tools necessary for considering the development of microbiological criteria for pathogenic microorganisms and indicator microorganisms; (iii) recommendations on methods/tools to design microbiological criteria and (iv) guidelines for the requirements and tasks of risk assessors, compared to risk managers, in relation to microbiological criteria. This document provides guidance on approaches when: (i) a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is available, (ii) prevalence and concentration data are available, but not a QMRA model, and (iii) neither a QMRA nor prevalence and/or concentration data are available. The role of risk assessors should be focused on assessing the impact of different microbiological criteria on public health and on product compliance. It is the task of the risk managers to: (1) formulate unambiguous questions, preferably in consultation with risk assessors, (2) decide on the establishment of a microbiological criterion, or target in primary production sectors, and to formulate the specific intended purpose for using such criteria, (3) consider the uncertainties in impact assessments on public health and on product compliance and (4) decide the point in the food chain where the microbiological criteria are intended to be applied and decide on the actions which should be taken in case of non‐compliance. It is the task of the risk assessors to support risk managers to ensure that questions are formulated in a way that a precise answer can be given, if sufficient information is available, and to ensure clear and unambiguous answers, including the assessment of uncertainties, based on available scientific evidence.