Time to death and its determinants of under-five children in rural Ethiopia by using shared frailty

Under-five (U5M) is one of the most significant and sensitive measures of the community's health. Children who live in rural areas are more likely than those who live in urban areas to die before the age of five. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and its determinants in rural Ethiopia. The 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey was used in this study as a secondary source (EMDHS). A total of 4426 weighted under-five children were included in the study. To determine survival time and identify predictors of death among children under the age of five, the Cox's gamma shared frailty model and the Kaplan Meier model, respectively, were used. An adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) along with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were used to measure the size and direction of the association. The Study showed that in rural Ethiopia, 6.03% of children died before celebrating their first birthday. The median age of under-five mortality in rural Ethiopia was estimated to be 29 Months. The hazard of death among under-five children and those who had given birth to two children in the last five years was 4.99 times less likely to be at risk of dying than those who had given birth to one Child in the previous five years (AHR 4.99, 95% CI 2.97, 8.83). The Study Concluded that under-five mortality remained high in rural Ethiopia. In the final model, the Age of Mothers, Sex of Household, Breastfeeding, Types of Birth, Sex of Child, Educational Level of Mothers, Wealth Index, Child ever born, Marital Status, and Water Source were significant predictors of under-five mortality. Twins and children who are not breastfed should receive additional attention, along with improving water resources for households and mothers income.

Predictors and disparities in neonatal and under 5 mortality in rural Pakistan: cross sectional analysis

Background

Adopted in 2015, the sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set specific targets (SDG 3.2) for countries to reduce their neonatal mortality rate (NMR) to below 12 deaths per 1000 live births and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) to below 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. For Pakistan to achieve these targets, there is a need to measure these rates and understand the predictors of child mortality at sub-national level. Launched in 2016, the Umeed-e-Nau (UeN) or New Hope project is based on scaling up proven and effective Maternal and Newborn Child Health (MNCH) interventions in 8 of the highest burden districts of the country, using existing public sector platforms in Pakistan at both the community and facility level. The primary aim of the project is to reduce perinatal mortality in these districts by 20% from baseline.

Methods

We report overall neonatal and post neonatal mortality rates for the two years preceding the UeN baseline household survey. Rates were calculated using the synthetic cohort probability method and predictors of neonatal and post neonatal mortality examined using Cox regression. To investigate spatial variations in the mortality rates, we calculated Moran's I at the district level using predicted probabilities of mortality. Finally, we create district level maps of predicted under 5 child mortality using a stochastic partial differentiation approach.

Findings

A total of 26,258 children contributed to the analysis of mortality with 838 deaths in the neonatal period and 2236 under-5 deaths during the observation period from March 1, 2015 to March 17, 2017. Overall, we estimated the NMR to be 29.2 per 1000 live births (95% CI: 26.9-31.4) and the U5MR to be 86.1 per 1000 live births (95% CI: 85.5-86.8). We found evidence of within-district geospatial clustering of under 5 mortality (P < 0.0001) and that social factors (poverty, illiteracy, multiparity), poor coverage of community health workers and distance from health facilities were strongly associated with child mortality.

Interpretation

Important factors associated with neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in our study population included maternal education, parity, household size and gender. Additionally, antenatal care coverage (at least 4 visits) was specifically associated with neonatal mortality only, whereas, LHW coverage and distance to health facility were strongly associated with post-neonatal mortality. These findings emphasise the need for comprehensive, multisectoral strategies to be implemented for future maternal and child health programs and outreach services in rural areas.

Funding

The study was funded by an unrestricted grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the Aga Khan University (Grant OPP 1148892).

Under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: is maternal age at first childbirth below 20 years a risk factor?

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed at examining the association between young maternal age at first childbirth and under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DESIGN AND SETTING

This cross-sectional study pooled nationally-representative data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 30 countries in SSA from 2010 to 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

116 379 mothers of children under 5.

RESULTS

The prevalence of adolescent childbirth and death in children under 5 in SSA were 57.36% (95% CI 53.73% to 60.99%) and 4.10% (95% CI 3.65% to 4.54%), respectively. Children born to mothers whose first childbirth occurred at <20 years were 11% more likely to die before the age of 5 compared with those whose mothers' first childbirth occurred at age ≥20 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.11; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.18). In terms of the covariates, the likelihood of under-5 mortality was higher among children born to single (aOR 1.54; 95% CI 1.41 to 1.67) and cohabiting mothers (aOR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.21) compared with married mothers. Children born to mothers who were obese were more likely to die before the age of 5 compared with those born to mothers with normal body weight (aOR 1.17; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.26). The odds of under-5 mortality were higher among children whose weight at birth was <2500 g compared with those whose weight was ≥2500 g at birth (aOR 1.83; 95% CI 1.64 to 2.03).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings call for the need to enhance policies aimed at reducing under-5 mortality in SSA by reducing adolescent pregnancy and childbirth through family planning, comprehensive sexuality education, and the elimination of child marriage. Again, Since under-5 mortality among adolescent mothers is linked with their poor socio-economic status, there is the need for government and non-governmental organisations in SSA to introduce poverty alleviation programmes and improve access to both formal and informal education as a way of enhancing the socioeconomic status of adolescent mothers. Public health education, through continuous advocacy programmes should be done to encourage adolescent mothers to access antenatal care and health facility deliveries as a way of enhancing the survival status of their children. These interventions should be implemented, taking into consideration other characteristics of mothers such marital status and BMI and child's characteristics such as child's weight, which were found to be associated with high under-5 mortality.

Association between household air pollution and child mortality in Myanmar using a multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression with robust variance

Household air pollution (HAP) from solid fuel use (SFU) for cooking is a major public health threat for women and children in low and middle-income countries. This study investigated the associations between HAP and neonatal, infant, and under-five child mortality in Myanmar. The study consisted of 3249 sample of under-five children in the households from the first Myanmar Demographic and Health Survey 2016. Fuel types and levels of exposure to SFU (no, moderate and high) were proxies for HAP. We estimated covariate-adjusted relative risks (aRR) of neonatal, infant, and under-five child mortality with 95% confidence intervals, accounting for the survey design. The prevalence of SFU was 79.0%. The neonatal, infant, and under-five child mortality rates were 26, 45, and 49 per 1000 live births, respectively. The risks of infant (aRR 2.02; 95% CI 1.01-4.05; p-value = 0.048) and under-five mortality (aRR 2.16; 95% CI 1.07-4.36; p-value = 0.031), but not neonatal mortality, were higher among children from households with SFU compared to children from households using clean fuel. Likewise, children highly exposed to HAP had higher risks of mortality than unexposed children. HAP increases the risks of infant and under-five child mortality in Myanmar, which could be reduced by increasing access to clean cookstoves and fuels.