Role of APACHE II scoring system in the prediction of severity and outcome of acute intracerebral hemorrhage

Red Blood Cell Transfusions Are Not Associated With Incident Complications or Poor Outcomes in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Background Anemia is associated with poor intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) outcomes, yet the relationship of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions to ICH complications and functional outcomes remains unclear. We investigated the impact of RBC transfusion on hospital thromboembolic and infectious complications and outcomes in patients with ICH. Methods and Results Consecutive patients with spontaneous ICH enrolled in a single-center, prospective cohort study from 2009 to 2018 were assessed. Primary analyses assessed relationships of RBC transfusions on incident thromboembolic and infectious complications occurring after the transfusion. Secondary analyses assessed relationships of RBC transfusions with mortality and poor discharge modified Rankin Scale score 4 to 6. Multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for baseline demographics and medical disease severity (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), and ICH severity (ICH score).Of 587 patients with ICH analyzed, 88 (15%) received at least one RBC transfusion. Patients receiving RBC transfusions had worse medical and ICH severity. Though patients receiving RBC transfusions had more complications at any point during the hospitalization (64.8% versus 35.9%), we found no association between RBC transfusion and incident complications in our regression models (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.71 [95% CI, 0.42-1.20]). After adjusting for disease severity and other relevant covariates, we found no significant association between RBC transfusion and mortality (aOR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.45-1.66]) or poor discharge modified Rankin Scale score (aOR, 2.45 [95% CI, 0.80-7.61]). Conclusions In our cohort with ICH, RBC transfusions were expectedly given to patients with higher medical and ICH severity. Taking disease severity and timing of transfusions into account, RBC transfusion was not associated with incident hospital complications or poor clinical ICH outcomes.

Scoping Review and Commentary on Prognostication for Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage with Advances in Surgical Techniques

INTRODUCTION

The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score provides an estimate of 30-day mortality for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage in order to guide research protocols and clinical decision making. Several variations of such scoring systems have attempted to optimize its prognostic value. More recently, minimally invasive surgical techniques are increasingly being used with promising results. As more patients become candidates for surgical intervention, there is a need to re-discuss the best methods for predicting outcomes with or without surgical intervention.

METHODS

We systematically performed a scoping review with a comprehensive literature search by two independent reviewers using the PubMed and Cochrane databases for articles pertaining to the "intracerebral hemorrhage score." Relevant articles were selected for analysis and discussion of potential modifications to account for increasing surgical indications.

RESULTS

A total of 64 articles were reviewed in depth and identified 37 clinical grading scales for prognostication of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. The original ICH score remains the most widely used and validated. Various authors proposed modifications for improved prognostic accuracy, though no single scale showed consistent superiority. Most recently, scales to account for advances in surgical techniques have been developed but lack external validation.

CONCLUSION

We provide the most comprehensive review to date of prognostic grading scales for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. Current prognostic tools for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage remain limited and may overestimate risk of a poor outcome. As minimally invasive surgical techniques are developed, prognostic scales should account for surgical candidacy and outcomes.

Prognostication after intracerebral hemorrhage: a review

Background

Approximately half of patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) die within 1 year. Prognostication in this context is of great importance, to guide goals of care discussions, clinical decision-making, and risk stratification. However, available prognostic scores are hardly used in clinical practice. The purpose of this review article is to identify existing outcome prediction scores for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) discuss their shortcomings, and to suggest how to create and validate more useful scores.

Main text

Through a literature review this article identifies existing ICH outcome prediction models. Using the Essen-ICH-score as an example, we demonstrate a complete score validation including discrimination, calibration and net benefit calculations. Score performance is illustrated in the Erlangen UKER-ICH-cohort (NCT03183167). We identified 19 prediction scores, half of which used mortality as endpoint, the remainder used disability, typically the dichotomized modified Rankin score assessed at variable time points after the index ICH. Complete score validation by our criteria was only available for the max-ICH score. Our validation of the Essen-ICH-score regarding prediction of unfavorable outcome showed good discrimination (area under the curve 0.87), fair calibration (calibration intercept 1.0, slope 0.84), and an overall net benefit of using the score as a decision tool. We discuss methodological pitfalls of prediction scores, e.g. the withdrawal of care (WOC) bias, physiological predictor variables that are often neglected by authors of clinical scores, and incomplete score validation. Future scores need to integrate new predictor variables, patient-reported outcome measures, and reduce the WOC bias. Validation needs to be standardized and thorough. Lastly, we discuss the integration of current ICH scoring systems in clinical practice with the awareness of their shortcomings.

Conclusion

Presently available prognostic scores for ICH do not fulfill essential quality standards. Novel prognostic scores need to be developed to inform the design of research studies and improve clinical care in patients with ICH.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42466-021-00120-5.

Clinical Correlation Analysis of Complications in Elderly Patients with Sequelae of Stroke with Different Barthel Index in Tianjin Emergency Department

OBJECTIVE

The Barthel index (BI) is the most commonly used measure of poststroke disability. The purpose of this article is to explore the different complications and severity of the sequelae of elderly stroke patients with different BI in the emergency department, so as to provide a theoretical basis for strengthening the treatment of elderly patients with stroke sequelae.

METHODS

A retrospective study was adopted, and 1896 patients were divided into two groups according to the BI: 823 patients in the bedridden group (BI ≤ 40 points) and 1073 patients in the nonbedridden group (BI > 40 points). The type and number of complications and APACHE II score were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

Compared with the two groups, pneumonia, renal insufficiency, respiratory failure, and decubitus ulcer in the bedridden group had a higher incidence, but the incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding and fractures in the nonbedridden group was significantly higher (P < 0.05). The APACHE II score of the patients in the bedridden group was higher than that of the nonbedridden group, and they were critical (P < 0.001). And the number of complications was higher than that in the nonbedridden group. Moreover, the BI was negatively correlated with the APACHE-II score and the number of complications, and the APACHE II score was positively correlated with the number of complications (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Different complications and severity of illness occur in elderly patients with sequelae of stroke after different BI in the emergency department.

Comparison of Conventional Intensive Care Scoring Systems and Prognostic Scores Specific for Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Predicting One-Year Mortality

Background

Specific prognostic models for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) have short and simple features, whereas intensive care unit (ICU) severity scales include more complicated parameters. Even though newly developed ICU severity scales have disease-specific properties, they still lack radiologic parameters, which is crucial for ICH.

Aims

To compare the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) III, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV, Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS), ICH, max-ICH, ICH functional outcome score (ICH-FOS), and Essen-ICH for prediction of in-hospital and one-year mortality of patients with ICH.

Methods

A single-center analysis of 137 patients with ICH was conducted over 5 years. The performance of scoring systems was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic analysis. The independent predictors of one-year mortality were investigated with a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The SAPS-III score was calculated both in the emergency department (ED) and ICU.

Results

Among the independent variables, the need for mechanical ventilation, hematoma volume, the presence of intraventricular hemorrhage, and hematoma originating from both lobar and nonlobar regions were found as the strongest predictor of one-year mortality. For in-hospital mortality, the discriminative power of SAPS-II, APACHE-IV, and LODS was excellent, and for SAPS-III-ICU and SAPS-III-ED, it was good. For one-year mortality, the discriminative power of SAPS-II, APACHE-IV, LODS, and SAPS-III-ICU was good, and for SAPS-III-ED, Essen-ICH, ICH, max-ICH, and ICH-FOS, it was fair.

Conclusions

Although all three ICH-specific prognostic scales performed satisfactory results for predicting one-year mortality, the common intensive care severity scoring showed better performance. SAPS-III scores may be recommended for use in EDs after proper customization.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12028-020-00987-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Administrative and Claims Data Help Predict Patient Mortality in Intensive Care Units by Logistic Regression: A Nationwide Database Study

Background

Increasing attention has been paid to the predictive power of different prognostic scoring systems for decades. In this study, we compared the abilities of three commonly used scoring systems to predict short-term and long-term mortalities, with the intention of building a better prediction model for critically ill patients. We used the data from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) in Taiwan, which included information on patient age, comorbidities, and presence of organ failure to build a new prediction model for short-term and long-term mortalities.

Methods

We retrospectively collected the medical records of patients in the intensive care unit of a regional hospital in 2012 and linked them to the claims data from the NHIRD. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI), and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were compared for their predictive abilities. Multiple logistic regression tests were performed, and the results were presented as receiver operating characteristic curves and C-statistic.

Results

The APACHE II score has the best predictive power for inhospital mortality (0.79; C − statistic = 0.77 − 0.83) and 1-year mortality (0.77; C − statistic = 0.74 − 0.79). The ECI and CCI alone have poorer predictive power and need to be combined with other variables to be comparable to the APACHE II score, as predictive tools. Using CCI together with age, sex, and whether or not the patient required mechanical ventilation is estimated to have a C-statistic of 0.773 (95% CI 0.744-0.803) for inhospital mortality, 0.782 (95% CI 0.76-0.81) for 30-day mortality, and 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.80) for 1-year mortality.

Conclusions

We present a new prognostic model that combines CCI with age, sex, and mechanical ventilation status and can predict mortality, comparable to the APACHE II score.

Effects of sepsis on hippocampal volume and memory function

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the effects of sepsis on brain integrity, memory, and executive function.

METHODS

Twenty sepsis patients who were not diagnosed with sepsis-associated encephalopathy (SAE) but had abnormal electroencephalograms (EEGs) were included. The control group included twenty healthy persons. A neuropsychological test of memory and executive function and a brain magnetic resonance imaging scan were performed. The volumes of cortex and subcortex were measured using the FreeSurfer software. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score was used to determine the disease severity.

RESULTS

In the sepsis group, the levels of immediate free recall, immediate cued recall, and delayed cued recall in the California Verbal Learning Test-II (CVLT-II) were significantly lower; the explicit memory (recollection process) in the process dissociation procedure test was lower; and the volumes of the left and right hippocampi were significantly lower compared with the control group. The volume of the presubiculum in the hippocampus of sepsis patients showed statistically significant decrease. In the sepsis group, the volumes of the left and right hippocampi were negatively correlated with the APACHE II score and positively with immediate free recall, immediate cued recall, and delayed cued recall in the CVLT-II; moreover, the hippocampal volume was significantly correlated with recollection but not with familiarity.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with abnormal EEGs during hospitalization but with no SAE still have reduced hippocampal volume and memory deficits. This finding indicates that sepsis leads to damage to specific parts of the hippocampus.

The association between the APACHE-II scores and age groups for predicting mortality in an intensive care unit: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether the age or the APACHE-II score was a better predictor of mortality in each group. The secondary objective was to investigate the factors affecting the mortality in each individual age group.

METHODS

We designed this retrospective study between 2016-2017. Age groups were classified into 3 classes: Patients < 60 years were Group 1, patients between 60-70 years were Group 2, and patients > 70 years were Group 3. We recorded patients' age, ICU indication, demographic data, APACHE-II, ASA, length of hospital stays and mortality.

RESULTS

We analysed 150 patients and reported mortality for 58 patients (38.7%). We did not detect any association between age and mortality for all groups. ASA, length of ICU stays and predicted mortality rate, were significantly higher for exitus patients (p < 0.001). The ROC curve for the APACHE-II score, with a cut-off point of 23, demonstrated 74.14% sensitivity, 60.87% specificity, an area under the curve (AUC) of 67.3%, with 4.5% standard deviation (SD). The ODDS ratio for APACHE-II scores was 4.459 (95% CI: 2.167-9.176). For the adjusted mortality rate, ROC analysis identified a cut-off of 60.8 with 70.69% sensitivity, 52.17% specificity, AUC of 61.2% and 4.6% SD. The ODDS ratio for the adjusted mortality rate was 2.631 (95% CI: 1.309-5.287).

CONCLUSION

We could not demonstrate any correlation between age and mortality. We consider APACHE-II as a valuable scoring system to predict mortality. We do not consider age as a predictor of mortality. Therefore, we do not suggest its use as a sole prognostic marker in ICU patients.

Feature selection for the accurate prediction of septic and cardiogenic shock ICU mortality in the acute phase

Circulatory shock is a life-threatening disease that accounts for around one-third of all admissions to intensive care units (ICU). It requires immediate treatment, which is why the development of tools for planning therapeutic interventions is required to deal with shock in the critical care environment. In this study, the ShockOmics European project original database is used to extract attributes capable of predicting mortality due to shock in the ICU. Missing data imputation techniques and machine learning models were used, followed by feature selection from different data subsets. Selected features were later used to build Bayesian Networks, revealing causal relationships between features and ICU outcome. The main result is a subset of predictive features that includes well-known indicators such as the SOFA and APACHE II scores, but also less commonly considered ones related to cardiovascular function assessed through echocardiograpy or shock treatment with pressors. Importantly, certain selected features are shown to be most predictive at certain time-steps. This means that, as shock progresses, different attributes could be prioritized. Clinical traits obtained at 24h. from ICU admission are shown to accurately predict cardiogenic and septic shock mortality, suggesting that relevant life-saving decisions could be made shortly after ICU admission.

Validation of the ICH score in patients with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage admitted to the intensive care unit in Southern Spain

OBJECTIVE

Validation of the intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) score in patients with a diagnosis of spontaneous ICH admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

A multicentre cohort study was conducted in all consecutive patients with ICH admitted to the ICUs of three hospitals with a neurosurgery department between 2009 and 2012 in Andalusia, Spain. Data collected included ICH, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) scores. Demographic data, location and volume of haematoma and 30-day mortality rate were also collated.

RESULTS

A total of 336 patients were included. 105 of whom underwent surgery. Median (IQR) age: 62 (50-70) years.

APACHE-II

21(15-26) points, GCS: 7 (4-11) points, ICH score: 2 (2-3) points. 11.1% presented with bilateral mydriasis on admission (mortality rate=100%). Intraventricular haemorrhage was observed in 58.9% of patients. In-hospital mortality was 54.17% while the APACHE-II predicted mortality was 57.22% with a standardised mortality ratio (SMR) of 0.95 (95% CI 0.81 to 1.09) and a Hosmer-Lemenshow test value (H) of 3.62 (no significant statistical difference, n.s.). 30-day mortality was 52.38% compared with the ICH score predicted mortality of 48.79%, SMR: 1.07 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.23), n.s. Mortality was higher than predicted at the lowest scores and lower than predicted in the more severe patients, (H=55.89, p<0.001), Gruppo Italiano per la Valutazione degli Interventi in Terapia Intensiva calibration belt (p<0.001). The area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.74 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

ICH score shows an acceptable discrimination as a tool to predict mortality rates in patients with spontaneous ICH admitted to the ICU, but its calibration is suboptimal.

Common intensive care scoring systems do not outperform age and glasgow coma scale score in predicting mid-term mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage treated in the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Intensive care scoring systems are widely used in intensive care units (ICU) around the world for case-mix adjustment in research and benchmarking. The aim of our study was to investigate the usefulness of common intensive care scoring systems in predicting mid-term mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) treated in intensive care units (ICU).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational study including adult patients with spontaneous ICH treated in Finnish ICUs during 2003-2012. We used six-month mortality as the primary outcome of interest. We used logistic regression to customize Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) for six-month mortality prediction. To assess the usefulness of the scoring systems, we compared their discrimination and calibration with two simpler models consisting of age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, and premorbid functional status.

RESULTS

Totally 3218 patients were included. Overall six-month mortality was 48%. APACHE II and SAPS II outperformed SOFA (area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0.83 and 0.84, respectively, vs. 0.73) but did not show any benefit over the simpler models in terms of discrimination (AUC 0.84, p > 0.05 for all models). SAPS II showed satisfactory calibration (p = 0.058 in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test), whereas all other models showed poor calibration (p < 0.05).

DISCUSSION

In this retrospective multi-center study, we found that SAPS II and APACHE II were of no additional prognostic value to a simple model based on only age and GCS score for patients with ICH treated in the ICU. In fact, the major predictive ability of APACHE II and SAPS II comes from their age and GCS score components. SOFA performed significantly poorer than the other models and is not applicable as a prognostic model for ICH patients. All models displayed poor calibration, highlighting the need for improved prognostic models for ICH patients.

CONCLUSION

The common intensive care scoring systems did not outperform a simpler model based on only age and GCS score. Thus, the use of previous intensive care scoring systems is not warranted in ICH patients.

The role of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide in evaluating the prognosis of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

A prognostic biomarker that can provide a good prediction of prognosis in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) would be beneficial in guiding the initial management decisions in the setting of ICH. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a biomarker of prognosis in patients with cardiovascular disease and ischemic stroke. However, the prognostic role of NT-proBNP in patients with spontaneous ICH is still a controversial issue. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of NT-proBNP in patients with spontaneous ICH. A total of 132 patients from 571 ICH cases in inpatient settings were enrolled in this study. Blood samples from each subject were obtained and analyzed for NT-proBNP on admission and on days 4 and 7. The first end point was functional outcome at discharge, which was dichotomized into favorable or unfavorable; the secondary end point was mortality within 6 months after ICH. Compared with the baseline levels on admission after ICH, the NT-proBNP levels increased markedly on day 4 (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the NT-proBNP level on day 4, the ICH score, and the APACHE II score were independent prognostic factors of functional outcome and 6-month mortality in ICH patients. A cutoff NT-proBNP level of 999.85 pg/ml predicted an unfavorable functional outcome (with 66.1% sensitivity and 98.7% specificity) and 6-month mortality (with 93.8% sensitivity and 92.0% specificity) in ICH patients. Thus, the NT-proBNP level on day 4 was found to be a powerful prognostic predictor of functional outcome and 6-month mortality in ICH patients, which would be beneficial to guiding the initial management decisions in the setting of ICH.

Biomarkers of Functional Outcome in Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Interplay between Clinical Metrics, CD163, and Ferritin

BACKGROUND

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is associated with neurological decline and poor prognosis. Although many etiologic models have been explored, secondary damage caused by continued inflammation and iron exposure from red blood cell lysis may explain poor outcomes at distant follow-up. Examining serum samples of patients with ICH for biomarkers of iron physiology may yield relationships between iron exposure and functional outcomes.

METHODS

The following study retrospectively evaluated 41 patient serum samples obtained 1 day and 7 days post-ictus for CD163, ferritin, and hepcidin concentrations. Functional outcomes, using the modified Rankin Scale, were dichotomized into good (0-3) and poor (4-6). Correlation analysis and logistic regression were used to explore relationships between biomarker values, clinical metrics (such as ICH Score), and functional outcomes at 3 and 12 months.

RESULTS

Clinical metrics (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, ICH Score, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale) were correlated with elevated ferritin levels 7 days post-ictus. Furthermore, it was found that mean CD163 levels on day 1 were significantly associated with functional outcomes at 3 and 12 months; mean serum ferritin concentrations on days 1 and 7 were elevated in those with poor outcomes at 3 months, and day 7 levels were independently correlated with 12-month outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Although this study serves to contribute to a growing body of evidence that CD163 and ferritin are biomarkers of functional outcomes, prospective cohort studies may clarify the role of iron-related inflammatory biomarkers as they pertain to neurological decline in patients with ICH.

Prognosticating Functional Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The ICHOP Score

BACKGROUND

The morbidity, mortality, and monetary cost associated with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is devastatingly high. Several scoring systems have been proposed to prognosticate outcomes after ICH, although the original ICH Score is still the most widely used. However, recent research suggests that systemic physiologic factors, such as those included in the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, may also influence outcome. In addition, no scoring systems to date have included premorbid functional status. Therefore, we propose a scoring system that incorporates these factors to prognosticate 3-month and 12-month functional outcomes.

METHODS

We used the Random Forest machine-learning technique to identify factors from a dataset of more than 200 data points per patient that were most strongly affiliated with functional outcome. We then used linear regression to create an initial model based on these factors and modified weightings to improve accuracy. Our scoring system was compared with the ICH Score for prognosticating functional outcomes.

RESULTS

Two separate scoring systems (Intracerebral Hemorrhage Outcomes Project 3 [ICHOP₃] and ICHOP₁₂) were developed for 3-month and 12-month functional outcomes using Glasgow Coma Scale, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, premorbid modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and hematoma volume (3-month only). Patient outcomes were dichotomized into good (mRS score, 0-3) and poor (mRS score, 4-6) categories based on functional status. Areas under the curve in the derivation cohort for predicting mRS score were 0.89 (3-month) and 0.87 (12-month); both were significantly more discriminatory than the original ICH Score.

CONCLUSIONS

The ICHOP scores may provide more comprehensive evaluation of a patient's long-term functional prognosis by taking into account systemic physiologic factors as well as premorbid functional status.