Economic impact of psychiatric relapse and recidivism among adults with schizophrenia recently released from incarceration: a Markov model analysis

[Dynamic Prediction of Recidivism in Violence in Community-Based Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorder Patients: A Joint Model]

Objective

To construct a model for predicting recidivism in violence in community-based schizophrenia spectrum disorder patients (SSDP) by adopting a joint modeling method.

Methods

Based on the basic data on severe mental illness in Southwest China between January 2017 and June 2018, 4565 community-based SSDP with baseline violent behaviors were selected as the research subjects. We used a growth mixture model (GMM) to identify patterns of medication adherence and social functioning. We then fitted the joint model using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model and compared it with traditional static models. Finally, we used a 10-fold training-test cross validation framework to evaluate the models' fitting and predictive performance.

Results

A total of 157 patients (3.44%) experienced recidivism in violence. Medication compliance and social functioning were fitted into four patterns. In the counting model, age, marital status, educational attainment, economic status, historical types of violence, and medication compliance patterns were predictive factors for the frequency of recidivism of violence (P<0.05). In the zero-inflated model, age, adverse drug reactions, historical types of violence, medication compliance patterns, and social functioning patterns were predictive factors for the recidivism in violence (P<0.05). For the joint model, the average value of Akaike information criterion (AIC) for the train set was 776.5±9.4, the average value of root mean squared error (RMSE) for the testing set was 0.168±0.013, and the average value of mean absolute error (MAE) for the testing set was 0.131±0.018, which were all lower than those of the traditional static models.

Conclusion

Joint modeling is an effective statistical strategy for identifying and processing dynamic variables, exhibiting better predictive performance than that of the traditional static models. It can provide new ideas for promoting the construction of comprehensive intervention systems.

Modeling disease progression and treatment pathways for depression jointly using agent based modeling and system dynamics

Introduction

Depression is a common mental health condition that affects millions of people worldwide. Care pathways for depression are complex and the demand across different parts of the healthcare system is often uncertain and not entirely understood. Clinical progression with depression can be equally complex and relates to whether or not a patient is seeking care, the care pathway they are on, and the ability for timely access to healthcare services. Considering both pathways and progression for depression are however rarely studied together in the literature.

Methods

This paper presents a hybrid simulation modeling framework that is uniquely able to capture both disease progression, using Agent Based Modeling, and related care pathways, using a System Dynamics. The two simulation paradigms within the framework are connected to run synchronously to investigate the impact of depression progression on healthcare services and, conversely, how any limitations in access to services may impact clinical progression. The use of the developed framework is illustrated by parametrising it with published clinical data and local service level data from Wales, UK.

Results and discussion

The framework is able to quantify demand, service capacities and costs across all care pathways for a range of different scenarios. These include those for varying service coverage and provision, such as the cost-effectiveness of treating patients more quickly in community settings to reduce patient progression to more severe states of depression, and thus reducing the costs and utilization of more expensive specialist settings.

Inpatient early intervention for serious mental illnesses and post-discharge criminal involvement in a high-volume psychiatric hospital setting

Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) are at increased risk for arrest and incarceration relative to the same-community population without SMI. Publicly-funded inpatient psychiatric hospitals usually feature short lengths of stay and limited opportunities for extended services that might impact criminal justice involvement after discharge. This study examined the influence of an early intervention program for SMI at a high-volume public psychiatric hospital on involvement in the criminal justice system post-discharge. The Early Onset Treatment Program (EOTP) is an extended service intervention program for uninsured patients who are within 5 years of SMI onset. Criminal justice records (number of arrests with conviction, days of incarceration) were obtained for EOTP participants (n = 164) and comparison patients (n = 164) matched on demographics, diagnosis, and discharge date via propensity score matching. Data were zero-inflated and analyzed using hurdle models, controlling for prior arrests. The EOTP group was less likely to be convicted of at least one crime post-discharge (0 arrests vs. > 0, p < .001), and spent fewer days incarcerated (if incarcerated ≥1 day, p < .03). Participation in the EOTP service was linked to reduced likelihood of post-discharge arrest and days incarcerated. Several alternative variables may contribute to this preliminary observation, including length of stay, medication adherence, longer environmental stability, and individual patient characteristics.

Patterns and Predictors of Reincarceration among Prisoners with Serious Mental Illness: A Cohort Study: Modèles et prédicteurs de réincarcération chez les prisonniers souffrant de maladie mentale grave : Une étude de cohorte

BACKGROUND

A small proportion of people who have serious mental illness and rapid and frequent incarcerations account for a disproportionate amount of overall service use and cost. It is important to describe such individuals, so that services can respond more effectively.

METHODS

We investigated a cohort of 4,704 incarcerated men and women who were discharged from a correctional mental health service and followed for a median of 535 days. We investigated social, clinical, demographic, and offense characteristics as predictors of return to the service using Cox survival analyses. Secondly, we characterized individuals as high-frequency service users as those who had 3 or more incarcerations during a 1-year period and investigated their characteristics.

RESULTS

We found that a higher rate of return to custody was associated with schizophrenia spectrum/bipolar affective disorder (BPAD), personality disorder traits, crack cocaine and methamphetamine use, and unstable housing. Charges of theft/robbery and breach of probation were also positively associated, and sex assault was negatively associated with return to custody. Within a 1-year time period, we found 7.2% of individuals were high-frequency service users, which accounted for 19.5% of all reincarcerations.

CONCLUSION

Identification of the characteristics of those with mental illness in custody, especially those who have high-frequency returns to custody, may provide opportunity to target resources more effectively. The primary targets of intervention would be to treat those with schizophrenia/BPAD and substance use problems, particularly those using stimulants, and addressing homelessness. This could reduce the problem of repeated criminalization of the mentally ill and reduce the overall incarceration rate.

Modeling the Choice Between Risperidone Long-Acting Injectable and Generic Risperidone from the Perspective of a Japanese Hospital

INTRODUCTION

The Japanese government's current policy is to encourage hospitals to discharge hospital patients with schizophrenia earlier and provide them with community care. This study aims to analyze clinical and economic outcomes of different discharge strategies in psychiatric hospitals in Japan.

METHODS

A simulation was conducted to compare patient relapse and hospital revenues for different discharge plans. We constructed a decision tree where each tree consists of a different Markov chain that models hospital revenue for four different discharge plans: discharge of the patient after 1, 2, or 3 months, or 4 months or more. The simulation also included variations in the medical treatment regimen in an outpatient setting as part of the discharge strategy. In particular, we looked at the choice between risperidone long-acting injectable (RLAI) and generic risperidone (RIS GE).

RESULTS

The use of RLAI in an outpatient setting reduced the number of rehospitalizations compared to generic risperidone use under all discharge plans. Different discharge plans were associated with differences in economic outcomes as well. One of the key revenue drivers for the hospital was the continuation of treatment in the outpatient setting after discharge.

CONCLUSION

The use of RLAI in an outpatient setting could help to prevent rehospitalization, thereby contributing to better community care.

FUNDING

The Rapid Service Fee was funded by Janssen KK.

Outcome of serious violent offenders with psychotic illness and cognitive disorder dealt with by the New South Wales criminal justice system

BACKGROUND

The few studies of the recidivism by people with psychotic illness and cognitive disorder who are convicted of serious violent offences and sentenced by the courts.

METHOD

Re-imprisonment data were obtained for 661 individuals convicted of serious non-lethal violent offences in the District Courts of New South Wales in the years 2006 and 2007. Rates of re-imprisonment of offenders known to psychotic illness or cognitive disorder (intellectual disability or acquired brain injury) was compared to those not known to have those conditions. A survival analysis was performed controlling for the effects of male sex, having a report by a mental health professional at the initial sentencing and receiving a custodial sentence for the initial offence.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in the overall likelihood of further imprisonment between those with psychotic disorder (53.7%), those with cognitive disorder (50.7%) or among those with neither condition (45.2%; χ² = 2.22, p = 0.33). A Kaplan-Meier analysis found that people with a psychotic disorder were returned to custody earlier than those not known to have psychosis ( p = 0.002). People with psychosis spent a non-significantly greater time in custody (mean 477 days) than those with a cognitive disorder (mean 334 days) or among those with neither condition (mean 348 days) (Mann-Whitney Z-score = 1.5, η² = 0.003, p value = 0.13). For the entire sample of 661 offenders, those who received non-custodial sentences for their initial offences had a lower likelihood of spending any time in custody in the follow-up period.

CONCLUSION

The likelihood of returning to custody of sentenced violent offenders with psychotic illness or cognitive disorder is higher than that of released forensic patients in New South Wales followed up for a similar period. The results suggest an opportunity to improve the outcome of offenders with psychosis by better treatment and rehabilitation.

Clozapine in Reducing Aggression and Violence in Forensic Populations

Popular media often portray people with a mental illness as being aggressive, violent, and incarcerated as a result of their behavior. Despite exaggeration in the media, risks for some aggressive behaviors are in fact higher in individuals with schizophrenia. This is often the case with influence of comorbid substance use disorders. It is essential that mental health professionals are aware of treatments that may help with attenuating and treating behaviors that contribute to violence, aggression and incarceration. This paper reviews violence and incarceration in individuals with schizophrenia as well as recommendations, guidelines and benefits for the use of clozapine in this population. Clozapine remains one of the most underutilized evidence-based medications available in the psychiatric arena in the United States. It is a viable and recommended option in the forensic population and it may be helpful on the path to recovery as well as bring substantial savings to the criminal justice system.

Drug Utilization of Japanese Patients Diagnosed with Schizophrenia: An Administrative Database Analysis

Background and objective

Patient characteristics require consideration for optimal treatment in order to achieve clinical remission for an improved quality of life and social functioning. Prior evidence supports long-acting injectable antipsychotics (LAIs) in the relapse prevention of schizophrenia. This study aimed to characterize Japanese patients diagnosed with schizophrenia and to compare the outcomes of LAIs and oral antipsychotics (AP) in re-hospitalization or emergency room visit rates.

Methods

Diagnostic Procedure Combination (DPC) designated hospital data in Japan with ICD-10 code F20x between July 2013 and June 2015 were obtained from the Medical Data Vision Co. Ltd. Patients were divided into sub-groups in order to filter co-diagnostic conditions. Differences across sub-groups were assessed using a Chi square test or ANOVA. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was calculated to compare the re-hospitalization (30 days post discharge) or emergency room visit rates between pharmacotherapy groups of oral versus LAI or typical versus atypical within LAI patients. Adjusted estimates were provided by propensity scores that were assigned for age, gender, and Charlson co-morbidity index (CCI) scores.

Results

A quarter of the data sourced were attributed to co-diagnosis with dementia/delirium with antipsychotic prescriptions despite reported risks of antipsychotic use. After adjusting for age, gender, and co-morbidity, LAI reduced re-hospitalization and emergency (ER) visit rates more than oral APs (LAI vs. oral IRR = 0.38 (95% CI 0.17–0.74), IRR = 0.56 (95% CI 0.34–0.91), respectively).

Conclusion

The study findings demonstrate usage of DPC hospital data in schizophrenia pharmacotherapy based on classification of co-diagnoses. In comparison with oral APs only, LAI utilization can provide an opportunity for reduced re-hospitalization and ER visit rates among patients with schizophrenia.

The RANZCP guidelines for Schizophrenia: Why is our practice so far short of our recommendations, and what can we do about it?

The new RANZCP guidelines for the treatment of schizophrenia and related disorders highlights what we know works. In this paper, we examine why patients so often fail to benefit from this knowledge and why clinical practice falls so far short of the recommended standard. Instead of the continuous improvement that we expect of health care in general, in psychiatry we face an accelerating decline in systems of care. There has been a sustained underinvestment in public mental health care and a shared failure by State and Federal governments to construct and commit to a governance and funding model that can deliver the standard of care that is available in other major non-communicable diseases, and which we know is equally possible for severe mental illness. This paper sets out some of the reasons for the poor quality of care received by many people with schizophrenia and related disorders in Australia, and describes ways that care could be improved. In particular, we recommend an explicit statement of what constitutes an adequate standard of care, for people at all stages of these illnesses. This would help provide transparency about whether the care provided by mental health services achieves these benchmarks, and enable publication of results comparing the performance of different states and regional services. Patients and families, as well as professional, consumer and carer organizations would then be able to see clearly where the deficits are and demand resources and care that match the recommendations.

Modeling the budget impact of long-acting injectable paliperidone palmitate in the treatment of schizophrenia in Japan

Background

The cost of schizophrenia in Japan is high and new long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics might be able to reduce costs by causing a reduction of hospital stays. We aim to estimate budget effects of the introduction of a new 1-month LAI, paliperidone palmitate, in Japan.

Methods

A budget impact analysis was conducted from a payer perspective. The model took direct costs of illness into account (ie, costs for inpatient and outpatient services, as well as drug costs). The robustness of the model was checked using a sensitivity analysis.

Results

According to our calculations, direct total costs of schizophrenia reach 710,500 million yen a year (US$6 billion). These costs decrease to 691,000 million yen (US$5.9 billion) 3 years after the introduction of paliperidone palmitate.

Conclusion

From a payer point of view, the introduction of a new treatment for schizophrenia in Japan helps to save resources and is not associated with a higher financial burden.

Cost effectiveness of paliperidone palmitate versus oral antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia and a history of criminal justice involvement

OBJECTIVE

Conduct a cost effectiveness analysis for the Paliperidone palmitate Research In Demonstrating Effectiveness (PRIDE) trial.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

PRIDE was a 15 month, prospective, randomized, open-label study in which once monthly paliperidone palmitate significantly delayed the time to first treatment failure (healthcare or criminal justice system [HC/CJS] events) versus oral antipsychotics in recently incarcerated adults with schizophrenia. The present analysis used a state government perspective and HC/CJS event data that were collected on a resource use questionnaire (RUQ) every 3 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Since cost information was not collected in the trial, cost estimates from published literature and an analysis of multistate Medicaid data for CJS and HC events, respectively, were applied to RUQ event data. Effectiveness and costs were adjusted to 456 days (trial duration). Incremental cost effectiveness was calculated as the adjusted cost difference divided by the adjusted effectiveness difference.

RESULTS

Adjusted costs (in US dollars) in the paliperidone palmitate group (n = 198) and the oral antipsychotic group (n = 193), respectively, were: non-drug costs $22,331 and $25,027; drug costs $18,592 and $7833; and total costs $40,923 and $32,860. Adjusted effectiveness differences and corresponding incremental cost effectiveness per event avoided (in parentheses) for paliperidone palmitate versus oral antipsychotics were as follows: 0.33 fewer CJS events ($24,409), 0.13 fewer psychiatric hospitalizations ($60,484), 0.46 fewer psychiatric hospitalizations or CJS events combined ($17,391), and 0.30 fewer incarcerations ($26,754).

CONCLUSIONS

Costs for HC/CJS events avoided offset 25% of the greater drug cost for the paliperidone palmitate versus oral antipsychotic treatment group in this vulnerable population. Use of a recall-dependent RUQ for event rates and cost estimates instead of actual costs are potential limitations and may make the results conservative from a state government perspective. Indirect costs are likely to be substantial for this population, but were not considered in the analysis.

Adherence and rehospitalizations in patients with schizophrenia: evidence from Japanese claims data

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to analyze if there is a relationship between adherence to antipsychotic medication and rehospitalization for patients diagnosed with schizophrenia in Japan.

METHODS

Based on Japanese claims data, we constructed three patient groups based on their medication possession ratio (MPR). Controlling for potential confounders, a Cox proportional hazard model was employed to assess if medication adherence affects the risk of rehospitalization.

RESULTS

Patients with good adherence (MPRs from 0.8-1.1) had the lowest rates of admission. Both poor adherence (MPRs <0.8) and overadherence (MPRs >1.1) were associated with a significant higher risk of rehospitalization with hazard ratios of 4.7 and 2.0, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study support the notion that good adherence to antipsychotic medication reduces the risk of rehospitalization of schizophrenia patients. Appropriate measures should be taken to improve adherence of schizophrenia patients.