An agent-based model evaluation of economic control strategies for paratuberculosis in a dairy herd

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

A candidate subunit vaccine induces protective immunity against Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in mice

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) causes paratuberculosis (PTB), which is a granulomatous enteritis in ruminants that threatens the dairy industry's healthy development and public health safety worldwide. Because the commercial inactivated vaccines are not completely protective and interfere with bovine tuberculosis diagnostics, we tested four fusion proteins, namely 66NC, 66CN, 90NC, and 90CN, which were constructed with MAP3527, Ag85B, and Hsp70 of MAP in different tandem combinations. Notably, 66NC, which encodes a 66 kDa fusion protein that combines in linear order MAP3527_N40-232, Ag85B_41-330, and MAP3527_C231-361, induced a powerful and specific IFN-γ response. Immunization of C57BL/6 mice with the 66NC fusion protein formulated in Montanide ISA 61 VG adjuvant generated robust Th1, Th2, and Th17 type immune responses and strong antibody responses. The 66NC vaccine protected C57BL/6 mice against virulent MAP K-10 infection. This resulted in a reduction of bacterial load and improvement of pathological damage in the liver and intestine, in addition to a reduction of body weight loss; significantly better protection than the reported 74 F vaccine was also induced. Furthermore, vaccine efficacy correlated with the levels of IFN-γ-, TNF-α-, and IL-17A-secreting antigen-specific CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T lymphocytes as well as with serum IFN-γ and TNF-α levels after vaccination. These results demonstrate that recombinant protein 66NC is an efficient candidate for further development into a protective vaccine in terms of inducing specific protection against MAP.

Investigating effective testing strategies for the control of Johne's disease in western Canadian cow-calf herds using an agent-based simulation model

Johne's disease is an insidious infectious disease of ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Johne's disease can have important implications for animal welfare and risks causing economic losses in affected herds due to reduced productivity, premature culling and replacement, and veterinary costs. Despite the limited accuracy of diagnostic tools, testing and culling is the primary option for controlling Johne's disease in beef herds. However, evidence to inform specific test and cull strategies is lacking. In this study, a stochastic, continuous-time agent-based model was developed to investigate Johne's disease and potential control options in a typical western Canadian cow-calf herd. The objective of this study was to compare different testing and culling scenarios that included varying the testing method and frequency as well as the number and risk profile of animals targeted for testing using the model. The relative effectiveness of each testing scenario was determined by the simulated prevalence of cattle shedding MAP after a 10-year testing period. A second objective was to compare the direct testing costs of each scenario to identify least-cost options that are the most effective at reducing within-herd disease prevalence. Whole herd testing with individual PCR at frequencies of 6 or 12 months were the most effective options for reducing disease prevalence. Scenarios that were also effective at reducing prevalence but with the lowest total testing costs included testing the whole herd with individual PCR every 24 months and testing the whole herd with pooled PCR every 12 months. The most effective method with the lowest annual testing cost per unit of prevalence reduction was individual PCR on the whole herd every 24 months. Individual PCR testing only cows that had not already been tested 4 times also ranked well when considering both final estimated prevalence at 10 years and cost per unit of gain. A more in-depth economic analysis is needed to compare the cost of testing to the cost of disease, taking into account costs of culling, replacements and impacts on calf crops, and to determine if testing is an economically attractive option for commercial cow-calf operations.

Rewiring cattle trade movements helps to control bovine paratuberculosis at a regional scale

Paratuberculosis is a worldwide disease mainly introduced through trade. Due to the low sensitivity of diagnostic tests, it is difficult to protect herds from purchasing infected animals. Our objective was to assess if rewiring trade networks to promote risk-based movements could reduce the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) between dairy cattle herds at a regional scale. Two levels of control strategies were assessed. At the between-herd scale, trade rewiring aimed to prevent animals from high-risk herds moving into low-risk herds. At the within-herd scale, complementary additional measures were considered based on the herd infection status, aiming to limit the within-herd spread by reducing calf exposure to adult faeces and culling more rapidly after positive test results. We used a stochastic individual-based and between-herd mechanistic epidemiological model adapted to the 12,857 dairy cattle herds located in Brittany, western France. We compared the regional spread of MAP using observed trade movements against a rewiring algorithm rendering trade movements risk-based. All females over two years old were tested. Based on the results, and taking into account the low test sensitivity, herds were annually assigned one of three statuses: A if the estimated true prevalence was below 7%, B if it ranged from 7 to 21 %, C otherwise. We also identified herds with a high probability of being MAP-free (AAA herds that had obtained an A status over three consecutive years) to assess the effect of decreasing their risk of purchasing infected animals on MAP regional spread. We showed that movement rewiring to prevent the sale of animals from high to low-prevalence herds reduces MAP regional spread. Targeting AAA herds made it possible to minimize the control effort to decrease MAP regional spread. However, animals purchased by AAA herds should have a moderate to high probability of being MAP-free, especially if the risk of purchasing animals from herds of unknown status cannot be managed. Improved hygiene and early culling of positive animals were relevant complementary on-farm control options to further decrease MAP spread. Future studies should identify how to define herd statuses to target optimal control measure combinations that could reduce the spread of MAP on a regional scale most effectively.

The EDN2 rs110287192 gene polymorphism is associated with paratuberculosis susceptibility in multibreed cattle population

Paratuberculosis (pTB), also known as Johne's disease (JD), is a contagious, chronic, and granulomatous inflammatory disease of the intestines of ruminants which is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection, resulting in billions of dollars in economic losses worldwide. Since, currently, no effective cure is available for MAP infection, it is important to explore the genetic variants that affect the host MAP susceptibility. The aim of this study was to analyze a potential association between EDN2 synonymous gene mutations (rs110287192, rs109651404 and rs136707411), that modifies susceptibility to pTB. EDN2 rs110287192, rs109651404 and rs136707411 mutations were genotyped in 68 infected and 753 healthy animals from East Anatolian Red crossbred, Anatolian Black crossbred and Holstein breed cattle by using Custom TaqMan SNP Genotyping Assays. For pTB status, serum antibody levels S/P ≥ 1.0 were assessed in carriers of the different EDN2 genotypes. EDN2 rs110287192 mutation showed a significant association with bovine pTB (adj. p < 0.05). For rs110287192 locus, the odd ratios for GG and TG genotypes versus TT genotypes were 1.73; (95% CI = 0.34–8.59) and 0.53 (95% CI = 0.12–2.37) respectively, which indicated that proportion of TG heterozygotes were significantly higher in control animals as compared to pTB animals. On the other hand, while rs136707411 mutation showed a suggestive association with pTB status in the examined cattle population (nominal p < 0.05); no association was detected between rs109651404 genotypes and pTB status. Selecting animals against rs110287192-GG genotype may decrease the risk of pTB in cattle of the Bos taurus taurus subspecies.

Implications of Cattle Trade for the Spread and Control of Infectious Diseases in Slovenia

The objectives of this study were to gain insight into the structure of the cattle trade network in Slovenia and to evaluate the potential for infectious disease spread through movements. The study considered cattle movements between different types of premises that occurred between August 1, 2011 and July 31, 2016 with the exclusion of the movements to the end nodes (e.g., slaughterhouses). In the first part, we performed a static network analysis on monthly and yearly snapshots of the network. These time scales reflect our interest in slowly spreading pathogens; namely Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), which causes paratuberculosis, a worldwide economically important disease. The results showed consistency in the network measures over time; nevertheless, it was evident that year to year contacts between premises were changing. The importance of individual premises for the network connectedness was highly heterogeneous and the most influential premises in the network were collection centers, mountain pastures, and pastures. Compared to random node removal, targeted removal informed by ranking based on local network measures from previous years was substantially more effective in network disassociation. Inclusion of the latest movement data improved the results. In the second part, we simulated disease spread using a Susceptible-Infectious (SI) model on the temporal network. The SI model was based on the empirically estimated true prevalence of paratuberculosis in Slovenia and four scenarios for probabilities of transmission. Different probabilities were realized by the generation of new networks with the corresponding proportion of contacts which were randomly selected from the original network. These diluted networks served as substrates for simulation of MAP spread. The probability of transmission had a significant influence on the velocity of disease spread through the network. The peaks in daily incidence rates of infected herds were observed at the end of the grazing period. Our results suggest that network analysis may provide support in the optimization of paratuberculosis surveillance and intervention in Slovenia. The approach of simulating disease spread on a diluted network may also be used to model other transmission pathways between herds.

Modelling Bovine Granuloma Formation In Vitro upon Infection with Mycobacterium Avium Subspecies Paratuberculosis

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) causes chronic granulomatous disease in cattle and ruminant livestock, causing substantial economic losses. Current vaccines delay clinical signs but cannot train the immune system to fully eradicate latent Map. During latency, Map uses host defenses, cage-like macrophage clusters called granuloma, as incubators for months or years. We used an in vitro model to investigate the early coordination of macrophages into granuloma upon Map infection over ten days. We found that at multiplicities of infection (MOI; Map:macrophages) of 1:2 and below, the macrophages readily form clusters and evolve pro-inflammatory cytokines in keeping with a cell-mediated immune response. At higher MOIs, viability of host macrophages is negatively impacted. At 1:4 MOI, we quantified viable Map in our model and confirmed that intracellular Map reproduced over the first five days of infection. Host cells expressed Type 1-specific cytokines, and Map-infected macrophages displayed reduced motility compared to Map-exposed, uninfected macrophages, suggesting an important role for uninfected macrophages in the early aggregative response. Reported is the first in vitro JD granuloma model capturing Map and macrophage viability, size distribution of resulting clusters, motility of monocyte-derived macrophages, and cytokine response during clustering, allowing quantitative analysis of multiple parameters of the Map-specific granulomatous response.

Mastitis risk effect on the economic consequences of paratuberculosis control in dairy cattle: A stochastic modeling study

The benefits and efficacy of control programs for herds infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) have been investigated under various contexts. However, most previous research investigated paratuberculosis control programs in isolation, without modeling the potential association with other dairy diseases. This paper evaluated the benefits of MAP control programs when the herd is also affected by mastitis, a common disease causing the largest losses in dairy production. The effect of typically suggested MAP controls were estimated under the assumption that MAP infection increased the rate of clinical mastitis. We evaluated one hundred twenty three control strategies comprising various combinations of testing, culling, and hygiene, and found that the association of paratuberculosis with mastitis alters the ranking of specific MAP control programs, but only slightly alters the cost-benefit difference of particular MAP control components, as measured by the distribution of net present value of a representative U.S. dairy operation. In particular, although testing and culling for MAP resulted in a reduction in MAP incidence, that control led to lower net present value (NPV) per cow. When testing was used, ELISA was more economically beneficial than alternative testing regimes, especially if mastitis was explicitly modeled as more likely in MAP-infected animals, but ELISA testing was only significantly associated with higher NPV if mastitis was not included in the model at all. Additional hygiene was associated with a lower NPV per cow, although it lowered MAP prevalence. Overall, the addition of an increased risk of mastitis in MAP-infected animals did not change model recommendations as much as failing to consider.

Traps and Opportunities of Czech Small-Scale Beef Cattle Farming

Small farmers represent a majority of the European Union (EU) farming sector and are considered the cornerstone of both the current and future sustainable EU agriculture. The dynamic complexity of livestock systems hinders the understanding of its behaviour, as well as recognizing the causes of problems and sources of resistance to applied policies and strategies. Livestock system behaviour needs to be understood in order to find leverage points and identify efficient solutions. The presented study depicts issues of small-scale beef cattle farmers in the market environment from a systemic perspective. The common complexity of managing a company increases with biological processes characterized by very long time periods, especially in the case of beef cattle farming. The scenarios analysed by the computer simulation model presented in the study evaluate the benefits of basic diversification into meat processing and a farm-to-table approach. The direct contact of the farmer with the final consumers represents increased demand and requirements on farmers’ entrepreneurship; nevertheless, such a strategy is a significant growth driver that allows faster maximisation of the farm’s output, accelerates the return of the investments, strengthens the market position of the farmer, and increases the farm’s sustainability.

Control of paratuberculosis: who, why and how. A review of 48 countries

Paratuberculosis, a chronic disease affecting ruminant livestock, is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). It has direct and indirect economic costs, impacts animal welfare and arouses public health concerns. In a survey of 48 countries we found paratuberculosis to be very common in livestock. In about half the countries more than 20% of herds and flocks were infected with MAP. Most countries had large ruminant populations (millions), several types of farmed ruminants, multiple husbandry systems and tens of thousands of individual farms, creating challenges for disease control. In addition, numerous species of free-living wildlife were infected. Paratuberculosis was notifiable in most countries, but formal control programs were present in only 22 countries. Generally, these were the more highly developed countries with advanced veterinary services. Of the countries without a formal control program for paratuberculosis, 76% were in South and Central America, Asia and Africa while 20% were in Europe. Control programs were justified most commonly on animal health grounds, but protecting market access and public health were other factors. Prevalence reduction was the major objective in most countries, but Norway and Sweden aimed to eradicate the disease, so surveillance and response were their major objectives. Government funding was involved in about two thirds of countries, but operations tended to be funded by farmers and their organizations and not by government alone. The majority of countries (60%) had voluntary control programs. Generally, programs were supported by incentives for joining, financial compensation and/or penalties for non-participation. Performance indicators, structure, leadership, practices and tools used in control programs are also presented. Securing funding for long-term control activities was a widespread problem. Control programs were reported to be successful in 16 (73%) of the 22 countries. Recommendations are made for future control programs, including a primary goal of establishing an international code for paratuberculosis, leading to universal acknowledgment of the principles and methods of control in relation to endemic and transboundary disease. An holistic approach across all ruminant livestock industries and long-term commitment is required for control of paratuberculosis.

Assessment of the bovine tuberculosis elimination protocol in the United States

In this study, we analyzed the performance of the USDA's bovine tuberculosis (bTB) elimination protocol in a 1,000-cow closed dairy herd using an agent-based simulation model under different levels of initial bTB infection. We followed the bTB test sensitivity and specificity values used by the USDA in its model assessment. We estimated the net present value over a 20-yr horizon for a bTB-free milking herd and for bTB-infected herds following the USDA protocol. We estimated the expected time to identify the infection in the herd once it is introduced, its elimination time, the reproductive number (R₀), and effective reproduction number (R_e) under the USDA protocol. The optimal number of consecutive negative whole-herd tests (WHT) needed to declare a herd bTB-free with a 95% confidence under different bTB prevalence levels was derived. Our results support the minimum number of consecutive negative WHT required by the USDA protocol to declare a herd bTB-free; however, the number of consecutive negative WHT needed to eliminate bTB in a herd depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the tests. The robustness of the protocol was analyzed under conservative bTB test parameters from the literature. The cost of implementing the USDA protocol when 1 infected heifer is introduced in a 1,000-cow dairy herd is about $1,523,161. The average time until detection and the time required to eliminate bTB-infected animals from the herd, after 1 occult animal is introduced in the herd, were 735 and 119 d, respectively.

A data-driven individual-based model of infectious disease in livestock operation: A validation study for paratuberculosis

Chronic livestock diseases cause large financial loss and affect animal health and welfare. Controlling these diseases mostly requires precise information on both individual animal and population dynamics to inform the farmer’s decisions, but even successful control programmes do by no means assure elimination. Mathematical models provide opportunities to test different control and elimination options rather than implementing them in real herds, but these models require robust parameter estimation and validation. Fitting these models to data is a difficult task due to heterogeneities in livestock processes. In this paper, we develop an infectious disease modeling framework for a livestock disease (paratuberculosis) that is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Infection with MAP leads to reduced milk production, pregnancy rates, and slaughter value and increased culling rates in cattle and causes significant economic losses to the dairy industry. These economic effects are particularly important motivations in the control and elimination of MAP. In this framework, an individual-based model (IBM) of a dairy herd was built and MAP infection dynamics was integrated. Once the model produced realistic dynamics of MAP infection, we implemented an evaluation method by fitting it to data from three dairy herds from the Northeast region of the US. The model fitting exercises used least-squares and parameter space searching methods to obtain the best-fitted values of selected parameters. The best set of parameters were used to model the effect of interventions. The results show that the presented model can complement real herd statistics where the intervention strategies suggest a reduction in MAP prevalence without elimination. Overall, this research not only provides a complete model for MAP infection dynamics in a dairy herd but also offers a method for estimating parameters by fitting IBM models.