Estimating the Force of Infection for Dengue Virus Using Repeated Serosurveys, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection over two epidemic waves in Manaus, Brazil: A serological study of seven thousand blood donors

BACKGROUND

Most longitudinal studies of COVID-19 incidence have used unlinked samples. The city of Manaus, Brazil, has a blood donation program which allows sample linkage, and was struck by two large COVID-19 epidemic waves between mid-2020 and early 2021.

METHODS

We estimated the changing force of infection, i.e. incidence in susceptible individuals. Seroconversion was inferred by a mixture model for serial values from the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) IgG assay. We estimated the number of suspected COVID-19 hospitalizations arising from each infection over calendar time.

RESULTS

Whole blood donations between April 2020 and March 2021 were included from 6734 people, 2747 with two or more donations. The inferred criterion for seroconversion, and thus an incident infection, was a 6.07 fold increase in N IgG reactivity. The overall force of infection was 1.19 per person year (95% confidence interval 1.14-1.24) during the two main waves. The estimated number of suspected hospitalizations per infection, was approximately 4.1 times higher in the second wave than in the first.

CONCLUSIONS

Serial values from this assay can be used to infer seroconversion over time, and in Manaus show a higher number of suspected COVID-19 hospitalizations per infection in the second wave relative to the first.

A scoping literature review of global dengue age-stratified seroprevalence data: estimating dengue force of infection in endemic countries

BACKGROUND

Dengue poses a significant burden worldwide, and a more comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneity in the intensity of dengue transmission within endemic countries is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions.

METHODS

This scoping literature review aimed to update a previous study of dengue transmission intensity by collating global age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data published in the Medline, Embase and Web of Science databases from 2014 to 2023. These data were then utilised to calibrate catalytic models and estimate the force of infection (FOI), which is the yearly per-capita risk of infection for a typical susceptible individual.

FINDINGS

We found a total of 66 new publications containing 219 age-stratified seroprevalence datasets across 30 endemic countries. Together with the previously available average FOI estimates, there are now more than 250 dengue average FOI estimates obtained from seroprevalence studies from across the world.

INTERPRETATION

The results show large heterogeneities in average dengue FOI both across and within countries. These new estimates can be used to inform ongoing modelling efforts to improve our understanding of the drivers of the heterogeneity in dengue transmission globally, which in turn can help inform the optimal implementation of public health interventions.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Community Jameel, Drugs for Neglected Disease initiative (DNDi) funded by the French Development Agency, Médecins Sans Frontières International; Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and UK aid.

From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021-2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000-648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8-1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900-3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Seroprevalence of Dengue and Chikungunya Virus Infections in Children Living in Sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Dengue and chikungunya viruses are frequent causes of malarial-like febrile illness in children. The rapid increase in virus transmission by mosquitoes is a global health concern. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the childhood prevalence of dengue and chikungunya in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A comprehensive search of the MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), and Cochrane Library (Wiley) databases was conducted on 28 June 2019, and updated on 12 February 2022. The search strategy was designed to retrieve all articles pertaining to arboviruses in SSA children using both controlled vocabulary and keywords. The pooled (weighted) proportion of dengue and chikungunya was estimated using a random effect model. The overall pooled prevalence of dengue and chikungunya in SSA children was estimated to be 16% and 7%, respectively. Prevalence was slightly lower during the period 2010-2020 compared to 2000-2009. The study design varied depending on the healthcare facility reporting the disease outbreak. Importantly, laboratory methods used to detect arbovirus infections differed. The present review documents the prevalence of dengue and chikungunya in pediatric patients throughout SSA. The results provide unprecedented insight into the transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses among these children and highlight the need for enhanced surveillance and controlled methodology.

Mosquito-Associated Viruses and Their Related Mosquitoes in West Africa

Mosquito-associated viruses (MAVs), including mosquito-specific viruses (MSVs) and mosquito-borne (arbo)viruses (MBVs), are an increasing public, veterinary, and global health concern, and West Africa is projected to be the next front for arboviral diseases. As in-depth knowledge of the ecologies of both western African MAVs and related mosquitoes is still limited, we review available and comprehensive data on their diversity, abundance, and distribution. Data on MAVs’ occurrence and related mosquitoes were extracted from peer-reviewed publications. Data on MSVs, and mosquito and vertebrate host ranges are sparse. However, more data are available on MBVs (i.e., dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, Zika, and Rift Valley fever viruses), detected in wild and domestic animals, and humans, with infections more concentrated in urban areas and areas affected by strong anthropogenic changes. Aedes aegypti, Culex quinquefasciatus, and Aedes albopictus are incriminated as key arbovirus vectors. These findings outline MAV, related mosquitoes, key knowledge gaps, and future research areas. Additionally, these data highlight the need to increase our understanding of MAVs and their impact on host mosquito ecology, to improve our knowledge of arbovirus transmission, and to develop specific strategies and capacities for arboviral disease surveillance, diagnostic, prevention, control, and outbreak responses in West Africa.