Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Wastewater Surveillance Data, Denmark, October 2021-June 2022

Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Timely and informed public health responses to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 necessitate reliable information about infection dynamics. The case ascertainment rate (CAR), the proportion of infections that are reported as cases, is typically much less than one and varies with testing practices and behaviours, making reported cases unreliable as the sole source of data. The concentration of viral RNA in wastewater samples provides an alternate measure of infection prevalence that is not affected by clinical testing, healthcare-seeking behaviour or access to care.

METHODS

We construct a state-space model with observed data of levels of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and reported case incidence and estimate the hidden states of the effective reproduction number, R, and CAR using sequential Monte Carlo methods.

RESULTS

We analyse data from 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2023 from Aotearoa New Zealand. Our model estimates that R peaks at 2.76 (95% CrI 2.20, 3.83) around 18 February 2022 and the CAR peaks around 12 March 2022. We calculate that New Zealand's second Omicron wave in July 2022 is similar in size to the first, despite fewer reported cases. We estimate that the CAR in the BA.5 Omicron wave in July 2022 is approximately 50% lower than in the BA.1/BA.2 Omicron wave in March 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimating R, CAR, and cumulative number of infections provides useful information for planning public health responses and understanding the state of immunity in the population. This model is a useful disease surveillance tool, improving situational awareness of infectious disease dynamics in real-time.

JN.1 and the ongoing battle: unpacking the characteristics of a new dominant COVID-19 variant

In the fourth year of the COVID-19 occurrence, a new COVID-19 variant, JN.1, has emerged and spread globally and become the dominant strain in several regions. It has some specific mutations in its spike proteins, empowering it with higher transmissibility. Regarding the significance of the issue, understanding the clinical and immunological traits of JN.1 is critical for enhancing health strategies and vaccination efforts globally, with the ultimate goal of bolstering our collective response to the pandemic. In this study, we take a look at the latest findings of JN.1 characteristics and mutations as well as its consequences on bypassing immune system. We demonstrate the importance of continual surveillance and strategic adaptation within healthcare frameworks along with the significance of wastewater sampling for the rapid identification of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Online dashboards for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based epidemiology

Aim: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is increasingly used to monitor pandemics. In this manuscript, we review methods and limitations of WBE, as well as their online dashboards. Materials & methods: Online dashboards were retrieved using PubMed and search engines, and annotated for timeliness, availability of English version, details on SARS-CoV-2 sublineages, normalization by population and PPMoV load, availability of case/hospitalization count charts and of raw data for export. Results: We retrieved 51 web portals, half of them from Europe. Africa is represented from South Africa only, and only seven portals are available from Asia. Conclusion: WBS provides near-real-time cost-effective monitoring of analytes across space and time in populations. However, tremendous heterogeneity still persists in the SARS-CoV-2 WBE literature.

Results from the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system in Denmark, July 2021 to June 2022

The microbiological analysis of wastewater samples is increasingly used for the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 globally. We described the setup process of the national SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system in Denmark, presented its main results during the first year of activities, from July 2021 to June 2022, and discussed their operational significance. The Danish SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system was designed to cover 85 % of the population in Denmark and it entailed taking three weekly samples from 230 sites. Samples were RT-qPCR tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, targeting the genetic markers N1, N2 and RdRp, and for two faecal indicators, Pepper Mild Mottle Virus and crAssphage. We calculated the weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in the wastewater from each sampling site and monitored it in view of the results from individual testing, at the national and regional levels. We attempted to use wastewater results to identify potential local outbreaks, and we sequenced positive wastewater samples using Nanopore sequencing to monitor the circulation of viral variants in Denmark. The system reached its full implementation by October 2021 and covered up to 86.4 % of the Danish population. The system allowed for monitoring of the national and regional trends of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Denmark. However, the system contribution to the identification of potential local outbreaks was limited by the extensive information available from clinical testing. The sequencing of wastewater samples identified relevant variants of concern, in line with results from sequencing of human samples. Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, Denmark implemented a nationwide SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system that integrated routine surveillance from individual testing. Today, while testing for COVID-19 at the community level has been discontinued, the system is on the frontline to monitor the occurrence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark.

Timely Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA Fragments in Wastewater Shows the Emergence of JN.1 (BA.2.86.1.1, Clade 23I) in Berlin, Germany

The importance of COVID-19 surveillance from wastewater continues to grow since case-based surveillance in the general population has been scaled back world-wide. In Berlin, Germany, quantitative and genomic wastewater monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 is performed in three wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) covering 84% of the population since December 2021. The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineage JN.1 (B.2.86.1.1), was first identified from wastewater on 22 October 2023 and rapidly became the dominant sublineage. This change was accompanied by a parallel and still ongoing increase in the notification-based 7-day-hospitalization incidence of COVID-19 and COVID-19 ICU utilization, indicating increasing COVID-19 activity in the (hospital-prone) population and a higher strain on the healthcare system. In retrospect, unique mutations of JN.1 could be identified in wastewater as early as September 2023 but were of unknown relevance at the time. The timely detection of new sublineages in wastewater therefore depends on the availability of new sequences from GISAID and updates to Pango lineage definitions and Nextclade. We show that genomic wastewater surveillance provides timely public health evidence on a regional level, complementing the existing indicators.

Evaluation of the pilot wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Norway, June 2022 - March 2023

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based surveillance gained great international interest as an additional tool to monitor SARS-CoV-2. In autumn 2021, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health decided to pilot a national wastewater surveillance (WWS) system for SARS-CoV-2 and its variants between June 2022 and March 2023. We evaluated the system to assess if it met its objectives and its attribute-based performance.

METHODS

We adapted the available guidelines for evaluation of surveillance systems. The evaluation was carried out as a descriptive analysis and consisted of the following three steps: (i) description of the WWS system, (ii) identification of users and stakeholders, and (iii) analysis of the system's attributes and performance including sensitivity, specificity, timeliness, usefulness, representativeness, simplicity, flexibility, stability, and communication. Cross-correlation analysis was performed to assess the system's ability to provide early warning signal of new wave of infections.

RESULTS

The pilot WWS system was a national surveillance system using existing wastewater infrastructures from the largest Norwegian municipalities. We found that the system was sensitive, timely, useful, representative, simple, flexible, acceptable, and stable to follow the general trend of infection. Preliminary results indicate that the system could provide an early signal of changes in variant distribution. However, challenges may arise with: (i) specificity due to temporary fluctuations of RNA levels in wastewater, (ii) representativeness when downscaling, and (iii) flexibility and acceptability when upscaling the system due to limited resources and/or capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that the pilot WWS system met most of its surveillance objectives. The system was able to provide an early warning signal of 1-2 weeks, and the system was useful to monitor infections at population level and complement routine surveillance when individual testing activity was low. However, temporary fluctuations of WWS values need to be carefully interpreted. To improve quality and efficiency, we recommend to standardise and validate methods for assessing trends of new waves of infection and variants, evaluate the WWS system using a longer operational period particularly for new variants, and conduct prevalence studies in the population to calibrate the system and improve data interpretation.

First cases of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 in Denmark, 2023

We describe 10 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant BA.2.86 detected in Denmark, including molecular characteristics and results from wastewater surveillance that indicate that the variant is circulating in the country at a low level. This new variant with many spike gene mutations was classified as a variant under monitoring by the World Health Organization on 17 August 2023. Further global monitoring of COVID-19, BA.2.86 and other SARS-CoV-2 variants is highly warranted.