Ethnic Variations in Prognosis of Patients with Dementia: A Prospective Nationwide Registry Linkage Study in The Netherlands

Study protocol for the development and validation of a clinical prediction tool to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality among hospitalized patients with dementia

BACKGROUND

Patients with dementia and their caregivers could benefit from advance care planning though may not be having these discussions in a timely manner or at all. A prognostic tool could serve as a prompt to healthcare providers to initiate advance care planning among patients and their caregivers, which could increase the receipt of care that is concordant with their goals. Existing prognostic tools have limitations. We seek to develop and validate a clinical prediction tool to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality among hospitalized patients with dementia.

METHODS

The derivation cohort will include approximately 235,000 patients with dementia, who were admitted to hospital in Ontario from April 1st, 2009, to December 31st, 2017. Predictor variables will be fully prespecified based on a literature review of etiological studies and existing prognostic tools, and on subject-matter expertise; they will be categorized as follows: sociodemographic factors, comorbidities, previous interventions, functional status, nutritional status, admission information, previous health care utilization. Data-driven selection of predictors will be avoided. Continuous predictors will be modelled as restricted cubic splines. The outcome variable will be mortality within 1 year of admission, which will be modelled as a binary variable, such that a logistic regression model will be estimated. Predictor and outcome variables will be derived from linked population-level healthcare administrative databases. The validation cohort will comprise about 63,000 dementia patients, who were admitted to hospital in Ontario from January 1st, 2018, to March 31st, 2019. Model performance, measured by predictive accuracy, discrimination, and calibration, will be assessed using internal (temporal) validation. Calibration will be evaluated in the total validation cohort and in subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. The final model will be based on the full cohort.

DISCUSSION

We seek to develop and validate a clinical prediction tool to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality among hospitalized patients with dementia. The model would be integrated into the electronic medical records of hospitals to automatically output 1-year mortality risk upon hospitalization. The tool could serve as a trigger for advance care planning and inform access to specialist palliative care services with prognosis-based eligibility criteria. Before implementation, the tool will require external validation and study of its potential impact on clinical decision-making and patient outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT05371782.

Differences in survival and mortality in minority ethnic groups with dementia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Although there are disparities in both risk of developing dementia and accessibility of dementia services for certain minority ethnic groups in the United States and United Kingdom, disparities in survival after a dementia diagnosis are less well-studied. Our objective was to systematically review the literature to investigate racial/ethnic differences in survival and mortality in dementia.

METHODS

We searched Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, Global Health and PsycINFO from inception to November 2018 for studies comparing survival or mortality over time in at least two race/ethnicity groups. Studies from any country were included but analysed separately. We used narrative synthesis and random-effects meta-analysis to synthesise findings. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess quality and risk of bias in individual studies.

RESULTS

We identified 22 articles, most from the United States (n = 17), as well as the United Kingdom (n = 3) and the Netherlands (n = 1). In a meta-analysis of US studies, hazard of mortality was lower in Black/African American groups (Pooled Hazard Ratio = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.82-0.91, I²  = 17%, from four studies) and Hispanic/Latino groups (Pooled HR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.50-0.84, I²  = 86%, from four studies) versus comparison groups. However, study quality was mixed, and in particular, quality of reporting of race/ethnicity was inconsistent.

CONCLUSION

Literature indicates that Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino groups may experience lower mortality in dementia versus comparison groups in the United States, but further research, using clearer and more and consistent reporting of race/ethnicity, is necessary to understand what drives these patterns and their implications for policy and practice.

Obesity and Race May Explain Differential Burden of White Matter Hyperintensity Load

OBJECTIVE

Compared to European Americans, research indicates that African Americans have higher white matter hyperintensity (WMH) load; however, the clinical and biological bases underlying this higher burden are poorly understood. We hypothesize that obesity may explain differences in WMH between African and European Americans.

METHODS

Participants enrolled in longitudinal brain aging studies (n=292; 61% Female; 92% European American; mean age=69.6±7.7) completed evaluations including medical exams, neuroimaging, and sociodemographic surveys. Overweight/obese status defined as body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, and WMH load, captured by FLAIR images, as sum of deep and periventricular volumes, scored using the Fazekas scale (0-6), WMH≥4 considered high.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analyses, adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, and smoking history, indicated that age and interaction between race and obesity were significant predictors of WMH, demonstrating that obesity significantly moderated the relationship between race and WMH. Age independently increased the odds of high WMH by 16% (OR=1.16, 95% CI=1.09-1.23, p<0.001). Stratified analysis indicates that older European Americans had increased WMH (OR=1.17, 95% CI=1.09-1.23, p<0.001), while obese African Americans had increased WMH (OR=27.65, 95% CI=1.47-519.13, p<0.05). In a case controlled subgroup matched by age, sex, and education (n=48), African Americans had significantly higher WMH load (27% vs 4%, Χ 2=5.3, p=0.02).

CONCLUSION

Results denote that age predicted WMH among European Americans, while obesity predicted WMH among African Americans. Matched sample analyses indicate that obesity increases the odds of WMH, though more pronounced in African Americans. These findings suggest that obesity may explain the differential burden of white matter hyperintensity load, signifying public health and clinical importance.

Access to Health Services in Older Minority Ethnic Groups with Dementia: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

While it is acknowledged that minority ethnic (ME) groups across international settings face barriers to accessing care for dementia, it is not clear whether ME groups access services less frequently as a result. The objective of this review is to examine whether ME groups have longer delays before accessing dementia/memory services, higher use of acute care and crisis services and lower use of routine care services based on existing literature. We also examined whether ME groups had higher dementia severity or lower cognition when presenting to memory services.

DESIGN

Systematic review with narrative synthesis.

SETTING

Nonresidential medical, psychiatric, memory, and emergency services.

PARTICIPANTS

Twenty studies totaling 94,431 older adults with dementia or mild cognitive impairment.

MEASUREMENTS

We searched Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, Global Health, and PsycINFO from inception to November 2018 for peer-reviewed observational studies which quantified ethnic minority differences in nonresidential health service use in people with dementia. Narrative synthesis was used to analyze findings.

RESULTS

Twenty studies were included, mostly from the U.S. (n = 13), as well as the UK (n = 4), Australia (n = 1), Belgium (n = 1), and the Netherlands (n = 1). There was little evidence that ME groups in any country accessed routine care at different rates than comparison groups, although studies may have been underpowered. There was strong evidence that African American/Black groups had higher use of hospital inpatient services versus U.S. comparison groups. Primary care and emergency services were less well studied. Study quality was mixed, and there was a large amount of variability in the way ethnicity and service use outcomes were ascertained and defined.

CONCLUSION

There is evidence that some ME groups, such as Black/African American groups in the U.S., may use more acute care services than comparison populations, but less evidence for differences in routine care use. Research is sparse, especially outside the U.S.

Urgent care for patients with dementia: a scoping review of associated factors and stakeholder experiences

OBJECTIVES

People with dementia are more vulnerable to complications in urgent health situations due to older age, increased comorbidity, higher dependency on others and cognitive impairment. This review explored the factors associated with urgent care use in dementia and the experiences of people with dementia, informal carers and professionals.

DESIGN

Scoping review. The search strategy and data synthesis were informed by people with dementia and carers.

DATA SOURCES

Searches of CINAHL, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO, PubMed were conducted alongside handsearches of relevant journals and the grey literature through 15 January 2019.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Empirical studies including all research designs, and other published literature exploring factors associated with urgent care use in prehospital and emergency room settings for people with dementia were included. Two authors independently screened studies for inclusion.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data were extracted using charting techniques and findings were synthesised according to content and themes.

RESULTS

Of 2967 records identified, 54 studies were included in the review. Specific factors that influenced use of urgent care included: (1) common age-related conditions occurring alongside dementia, (2) dementia as a diagnosis increasing or decreasing urgent care use, (3) informal and professional carers, (4) patient characteristics such as older age or behavioural symptoms and (5) the presence or absence of community support services. Included studies reported three crucial components of urgent care situations: (1) knowledge of the patient and dementia as a condition, (2) inadequate non-emergency health and social care support and (3) informal carer education and stress.

CONCLUSIONS

The scoping review highlighted a wider variety of sometimes competing factors that were associated with urgent care situations. Improved and increased community support for non-urgent situations, such as integrated care, caregiver education and dementia specialists, will both mitigate avoidable urgent care use and improve the experience of those in crisis.

Risk factors of mortality in older patients with dementia in psychiatric care

OBJECTIVE

To examine the mortality risk, and its risk factors, of older patients with dementia in psychiatric care.

METHODS

We constructed a cohort of dementia patients through data linkage of four Dutch registers: the Psychiatric Case Register Middle Netherlands (PCR-MN), the hospital discharge register, the population register, and the national cause of death register. All dementia patients in PCR-MN aged between 60 and 100 years between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2010 were included. Risk factors of mortality were investigated using Cox proportional hazard regression models with adjustment for age, sex, setting of care, nationality, marital status, dementia type, and psychiatric and somatic comorbidities.

RESULTS

In total, 4297 patients were included with a median age of 80 years. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year mortality were 16.4%, 44.4%, and 63.5%, respectively. Determinants that increased the 1-year mortality were: male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.49; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.26-1.76), higher age (HR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.07-1.09), inpatient psychiatric care (HR 1.52; 95% CI, 1.19-1.93), more somatic comorbidities (HR 1.67; 95% CI, 1.49-1.87), and cardiovascular disease separately (HR 1.54; 95% CI, 1.30-1.82). Results for 3-year and 5-year mortality were comparable. Living together/married increased the 3- and 5-year mortality, and Dutch nationality increased the 5-year mortality. There were no differences in mortality with different types of psychiatric comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Mortality of dementia patients in psychiatric care was high, much higher than mortality in the general older population. The results of this study should raise awareness about their unfavourable prognosis, particularly older patients, men, inpatients, and patients with more somatic comorbidity.

Hospital readmission in persons with dementia: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Hospital readmission in persons with dementia is becoming a critical safety and cost issue. The purpose of this review is to systematically assess published evidence on hospital readmissions in persons with dementia, including rate, clinical reasons, risk factors, and prevention programs.

METHODS

A systematic review of relevant literature was conducted. Literature were searched in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Embase as well as hand searching. Quality of reviewed studies were assessed independently by reviewers using quality assessment checklists.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies met the inclusion criteria and were reviewed. In persons with dementia, all-cause 30-day readmission rate was most frequently reported and ranged from 7% to 35%. Compared with those without dementia, persons with dementia had significantly higher rate of readmission. Reported risk factors of readmission varied across studies from patient sociodemographic and clinical status, history of health care utilization, to family caregivers. Reasons for readmission were rarely documented. Programs of home-based individualized care and interdisciplinary team care were used for preventing readmissions. Findings from some of the studies were limited by small sample sizes, single data source, and other methodologic flaws.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with dementia are at high risk for hospital readmission, but many of the readmissions are potentially preventable. Multiple strategies such like identifying high-risk individuals and the clinical reasons for index admission and readmission and implementing home-based individualized care by interdisciplinary team can reduce preventable hospital readmissions. Future studies should use multiple national data sources and advanced methodology to identify risk factors and clinical reasons of hospital readmissions.

Clinical profile and outcomes in octogenarians with atrial fibrillation: A community-based study in a specific European health care area

BACKGROUND

Age increases risk of stroke and bleeding. Clinical trial data have had relatively low proportions of elderly subjects. We sought to study a Spanish population of octogenarians with atrial fibrillation (AF) by combining different sources of electronic clinical records from an area where all medical centres utilized electronic health record systems.

METHODS

Data was derived from the Galician Healthcare Service information system.

RESULTS

From 383,000 subjects, AF was coded in 7990 (2.08%), 3640 (45.6%) of whom were ≥80 and 4350 (54.4%)<80. All CHA2DS2-VASc's components were more prevalent in the elderly except for diabetes. Of those ≥80, 2178 (59.8%) were women. Mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc was 4.2±1.1. Distribution of CHA₂DS₂-VASc components varied between genders. 2600 (71.4%) were on oral anticoagulant (OA). During a median follow up of 696days (124.23), all-cause mortality was higher in ≥80 (1011/3640 (27.8%) vs 350/4350 (8.05%) (p<0.001). There were differences in rate of thromboembolic (TE) and haemorrhagic events (2.3% vs 0.9%, p<0.01 and 2.5% vs 1.7%, p=0.01 respectively). In octogenarian, differences between genders were observed with regard to TE, but not in haemorrhagic or all-cause mortality rates. Age, heart failure, non-valvular AF, dementia, and OA were independent predictors of all-cause mortality. In regard to TE, female gender, hypertension, previous TE and OA were independent predictive factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Octogenarians with AF had very different characteristics and outcomes from their younger counterparts. These results also provide reassurance about the effectiveness of OA in preventing TE events and maintaining a reasonable haemorrhagic event rate in the extremely elderly.