Analyses of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Among Korean Military Personnel After Mass Vaccination

Cost-benefit analysis of human adenovirus vaccine development in a Korean military setting

BACKGROUND

Human adenovirus (HAdV) is a prevalent causative agent of acute respiratory disease (ARD) and is frequently responsible for outbreaks, particularly in military environments. Current vaccines do not effectively cover HAdV subtypes commonly found among Korean military personnel, highlighting the need for a new targeted vaccine. This study presents a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the economic viability of developing and implementing such a vaccine within a military context.

METHODS

We adopted a societal perspective for this cost-benefit analysis, which included estimating costs associated with vaccine development, production, and distribution over a projected timeline. We assumed a development period of five years, after which vaccine production and administration were initiated in the sixth year. The cost associated with vaccine development, production, and dispensation was considered. The benefits were calculated based on both direct and indirect cost savings from preventing HAdV infections through vaccination. All financial figures were expressed in 2023 US dollars. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the impact of varying factors such as vaccination rate, incidence of infection, vaccine efficacy, and discount rate.

RESULTS

For the base case scenario, we assumed a vaccination rate of 100 %, an incidence rate of 0.02, and a vaccine efficacy of 95 %, applying a 3 % discount rate. Initially, in the sixth year, the benefit-cost ratio stood at 0.71, suggesting a cost disadvantage at the onset of vaccination. However, this ratio improved to 1.32 in the following years, indicating a cost benefit from the seventh year onward. The cumulative benefit-cost ratio over a decade reached 2.72. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis were consistent with these findings.

CONCLUSION

Our cost-benefit analysis demonstrates that the introduction of an HAdV vaccine for the Korean military is economically advantageous, with substantial cost benefits accruing from the seventh year after the commencement of vaccination.

Trends in Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the Korean Military Before and After the Emergence of the Omicron Variant

BACKGROUND

Due to the higher transmissibility and increased immune escape of the omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the number of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has skyrocketed in the Republic of Korea. Here, we analyzed the change in trend of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Korean military after the emergence of the omicron variant on December 5, 2021.

METHODS

An interrupted time-series analysis was performed of the daily number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Korean military from September 1, 2021 to April 10, 2022, before and after the emergence of the omicron variant. Moreover, the daily number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Korean military and in the population of Korean civilians adjusted to the same with military were compared.

RESULTS

The trends of COVID-19 occurrence in the military after emergence of the omicron variant was significantly increased (regression coefficient, 23.071; 95% confidence interval, 16.122-30.020; P < 0.001). The COVID-19 incidence rate in the Korean military was lower than that in the civilians, but after the emergence of the omicron variant, the increased incidence rate in the military followed that of the civilian population.

CONCLUSION

The outbreak of the omicron variant occurred in the Korean military despite maintaining high vaccination coverage and intensive non-pharmacological interventions.

A Historical Review of Military Medical Strategies for Fighting Infectious Diseases: From Battlefields to Global Health

The environmental conditions generated by war and characterized by poverty, undernutrition, stress, difficult access to safe water and food as well as lack of environmental and personal hygiene favor the spread of many infectious diseases. Epidemic typhus, plague, malaria, cholera, typhoid fever, hepatitis, tetanus, and smallpox have nearly constantly accompanied wars, frequently deeply conditioning the outcome of battles/wars more than weapons and military strategy. At the end of the nineteenth century, with the birth of bacteriology, military medical researchers in Germany, the United Kingdom, and France were active in discovering the etiological agents of some diseases and in developing preventive vaccines. Emil von Behring, Ronald Ross and Charles Laveran, who were or served as military physicians, won the first, the second, and the seventh Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine for discovering passive anti-diphtheria/tetanus immunotherapy and for identifying mosquito Anopheline as a malaria vector and plasmodium as its etiological agent, respectively. Meanwhile, Major Walter Reed in the United States of America discovered the mosquito vector of yellow fever, thus paving the way for its prevention by vector control. In this work, the military relevance of some vaccine-preventable and non-vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, as well as of biological weapons, and the military contributions to their control will be described. Currently, the civil-military medical collaboration is getting closer and becoming interdependent, from research and development for the prevention of infectious diseases to disasters and emergencies management, as recently demonstrated in Ebola and Zika outbreaks and the COVID-19 pandemic, even with the high biocontainment aeromedical evacuation, in a sort of global health diplomacy.

Multi-Faceted Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic in Korea Considering Omicron Variant: Mathematical Modeling-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The most recent variant of concern, omicron (B.1.1.529), has caused numerous cases worldwide including the Republic of Korea due to its fast transmission and reduced vaccine effectiveness.

METHODS

A mathematical model considering age-structure, vaccine, antiviral drugs, and influx of the omicron variant was developed. We estimated transmission rates among age groups using maximum likelihood estimation for the age-structured model. The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; in community and border), quantified by a parameter μ in the force of infection, and vaccination were examined through a multi-faceted analysis. A theory-based endemic equilibrium study was performed to find the manageable number of cases according to omicron- and healthcare-related factors.

RESULTS

By fitting the model to the available data, the estimated values of μ ranged from 0.31 to 0.73, representing the intensity of NPIs such as social distancing level. If μ < 0.55 and 300,000 booster shots were administered daily from February 3, 2022, the number of severe cases was forecasted to exceed the severe bed capacity. Moreover, the number of daily cases is reduced as the timing of screening measures is delayed. If screening measure was intensified as early as November 24, 2021 and the number of overseas entrant cases was contained to 1 case per 10 days, simulations showed that the daily incidence by February 3, 2022 could have been reduced by 87%. Furthermore, we found that the incidence number in mid-December 2021 exceeded the theory-driven manageable number of daily cases.

CONCLUSION

NPIs, vaccination, and antiviral drugs influence the spread of omicron and number of severe cases in the Republic of Korea. Intensive and early screening measures during the emergence of a new variant is key in controlling the epidemic size. Using the endemic equilibrium of the model, a formula for the manageable daily cases depending on the severity rate and average length of hospital stay was derived so that the number of severe cases does not surpass the severe bed capacity.