Predicting factors of present hepatitis C virus infection among patients positive for the hepatitis C virus antibody

A potential new way to facilitate HCV elimination: The prediction of viremia in anti-HCV seropositive patients using machine learning algorithms

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

The present study was undertaken to design a new machine learning (ML) model that can predict the presence of viremia in hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody (anti-HCV) seropositive cases.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted between January 2012-January 2022 with 812 patients who were referred for anti-HCV positivity and were examined for HCV ribonucleic acid (HCV RNA). Models were constructed with 11 features with a predictor (presence and absence of viremia) to predict HCV viremia. To build an optimal model, this current study also examined and compared the three classifier data mining approaches: RF, SVM and XGBoost.

RESULTS

The highest performance was achieved with XGBoost (90%), which was followed by RF (89%), SVM Linear (85%) and SVM Radial (83%) algorithms, respectively. The four most important key features contributing to the models were: alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin (ALB) and anti-HCV levels, respectively, while "ALB" was replaced by the "AGE" only in the XGBoost model.

CONCLUSION

This study has shown that XGBoost and RF based ML models, incorporating anti-HCV levels and routine laboratory tests (ALT, AST, ALB), and age are capable of providing HCV viremia diagnosis with 90% and 89% accuracy, respectively. These findings highlight the potential of ML models in the early diagnosis of HCV viremia, which may be helpful in optimizing HCV elimination programs.

A cost-effectiveness study of universal screening for hepatitis C virus infection in South Korea: A societal perspective

BACKGROUND/AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening compared to no screening in the Korean population from societal and healthcare system perspectives.

METHODS

A published decision-tree plus Markov model was used to compare the expected costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) between one-time universal HCV screening and no screening in the population aged 40-65 years using the National Health Examination (NHE) program. Input parameters were obtained from analyses of the National Health Insurance claims data, Korean HCV cohort data, or from the literature review. The population aged 40-65 years was simulated in a model spanning a lifetime from both the healthcare system and societal perspectives, which included the cost of productivity loss due to HCV-related deaths. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between universal screening and no screening was estimated.

RESULTS

The HCV screening strategy had an ICER of $2,666/QALY and $431/QALY from the healthcare system and societal perspectives, respectively. Both ICERs were far less than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $25,000/QALY, showing that universal screening was highly cost-effective compared to no screening. In various sensitivity analyses, the most influential parameters on cost-effectiveness were the antibodies to HCV (anti-HCV) prevalence, screening costs, and treatment acceptance; however, all ICERs were consistently less than the threshold. If the anti-HCV prevalence was over 0.18%, screening could be cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

One-time universal HCV screening in the Korean population aged 40-65 years using NHE program would be highly cost-effective from both healthcare system and societal perspectives.

Preliminary Evidence for a Relationship between Elevated Plasma TNFα and Smaller Subcortical White Matter Volume in HCV Infection Irrespective of HIV or AUD Comorbidity

Classical inflammation in response to bacterial, parasitic, or viral infections such as HIV includes local recruitment of neutrophils and macrophages and the production of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines. Proposed biomarkers of organ integrity in Alcohol Use Disorders (AUD) include elevations in peripheral plasma levels of proinflammatory proteins. In testing this proposal, previous work included a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals as positive controls and identified elevations in the soluble proteins TNFα and IP10; these cytokines were only elevated in AUD individuals seropositive for hepatitis C infection (HCV). The current observational, cross-sectional study evaluated whether higher levels of these proinflammatory cytokines would be associated with compromised brain integrity. Soluble protein levels were quantified in 86 healthy controls, 132 individuals with AUD, 54 individuals seropositive for HIV, and 49 individuals with AUD and HIV. Among the patient groups, HCV was present in 24 of the individuals with AUD, 13 individuals with HIV, and 20 of the individuals in the comorbid AUD and HIV group. Soluble protein levels were correlated to regional brain volumes as quantified with structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In addition to higher levels of TNFα and IP10 in the 2 HIV groups and the HCV-seropositive AUD group, this study identified lower levels of IL1β in the 3 patient groups relative to the control group. Only TNFα, however, showed a relationship with brain integrity: in HCV or HIV infection, higher peripheral levels of TNFα correlated with smaller subcortical white matter volume. These preliminary results highlight the privileged status of TNFα on brain integrity in the context of infection.

Cost-effectiveness of increased screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Korea

Background: Given a hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination goal by 2030, World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines recommend scaling up HCV screening and treatment with highly-effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of various screening and treatment strategies for chronic HCV patients in South Korea in patients aged over 40 as compared to currently screening only high-risk patients.Methods: A published Markov disease progression model was used with a screening/treatment decision-tree to model different screening and treatment strategies for Korean HCV patients (aged over 40) from a national payer perspective over a lifetime time horizon. The screening strategies included "screen-all" (upfront only: "once"; or upfront and age 65: "twice") or a "high-risk only" screening strategy followed by treatment. Treatment strategies included either ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF), SOF + ribavirin (SOF + RBV; in GT2 only), or glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (GLE/PIB). Model inputs were sourced from published literature and costing databases and validated by Korean hepatologists.Results: Regardless of treatment strategy, a "screen all twice" scenario led to the lowest rates of advanced liver disease events compared to "screen all once" and "high-risk only" screening scenarios. In this screening scenario, treatment with LDV/SOF for GT1/2 dominates (i.e. is more effective and less4costly) LDV/SOF in GT1 and SOF + RBV in GT2, while GLE/PIB is not cost-effective relative to LDV/SOF (₩105,124,920/QALY) at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1xGDP per capita.Conclusion: Screening all South Korean patients twice followed by LDV/SOF treatment is cost-effective as compared current high-risk screening. Adopting this strategy can help achieve WHO HCV elimination goals.

International Liver Transplantation Society Asian Consensus on the Management of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Resource Limited Setting-From Noncirrhotic to Decompensated Disease and After Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

The population of Asia exceeds 4.4 billion people. Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Asia is characterized by specific distribution of genotypes, lack of access to specific therapeutic agents, relatively high cost of treatment, and lack of experienced healthcare providers. Clear consensus on the diagnosis, management, and monitoring of HCV infection specific to the Asian region is a major unmet need. The consensus guidelines documents that have been published to date by major medical societies presume access to an array of direct acting antiviral agents and diagnostic tests that are not broadly applicable to resource limited settings, including Asia.

METHODS

To address the lack of an Asia-specific set of HCV treatment guidelines, we assembled a panel of 15 HCV experts in the field of hepatology from India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Pakistan, Philippines, and Mongolia convened in April 2017 to review the updated literature and provide recommendations on the diagnosis and management of chronic HCV infection that reflects local conditions.

RESULTS

An evidence-based comprehensive compilation of the literature supported by the graded recommendations from the expert panel for the optimization of the diagnosis, pretreatment, on treatment, and posttreatment assessments, and management of chronic HCV infection has been presented in this article.

CONCLUSIONS

With the evolving treatment landscape and addition of several new direct-acting antiviral agents and combination regimens into the therapeutic armamentarium, the current article may serve as a guide to the clinicians in optimizing the diagnosis and treatment selection for the management of chronic HCV infection in resource-limited settings.

Cost-effectiveness and health-related outcomes of screening for hepatitis C in Korean population

BACKGROUND/AIM

In the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), active screening for hidden hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is important for HCV elimination. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness and health-related outcomes of HCV screening and DAA treatment of a targeted population in Korea, where anti-HCV prevalence was 0.6% in 2015.

METHODS

A Markov model simulating the natural history of HCV infection was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of two strategies: no screening vs screening and DAA treatment. Screening was performed by integration of the anti-HCV test into the National Health Examination Program. From a healthcare system's perspective, the cost-utility and the impact on HCV-related health events of one-time anti-HCV screening and DAA treatment in Korean population aged 40-65 years was analysed with a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

The HCV screening and DAA treatment strategy increased quality-adjusted life years (QALY) by 0.0015 at a cost of $11.27 resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $7435 per QALY gained compared with no screening. The probability of the screening strategy to be cost-effective was 98.8% at a willingness-to-pay of $27 205. Deterministic sensitivity analyses revealed the ICERs were from $4602 to $12 588 and sensitive to screening costs, discount rates and treatment acceptability. Moreover, it can prevent 32 HCV-related deaths, 19 hepatocellular carcinomas and 15 decompensated cirrhosis per 100 000 screened persons.

CONCLUSIONS

A one-time HCV screening and DAA treatment of a Korean population aged 40-65 years would be highly cost-effective, and significantly reduce the HCV-related morbidity and mortality compared with no screening.

Peripheral TNFα elevations in abstinent alcoholics are associated with hepatitis C infection

Substantial evidence supports the view that inflammatory processes contribute to brain alterations in HIV infection. Mechanisms recently proposed to underlie neuropathology in Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) include elevations in peripheral cytokines that sensitize the brain to the damaging effects of alcohol. This study included 4 groups: healthy controls, individuals with AUD (abstinent from alcohol at examination), those infected with HIV, and those comorbid for HIV and AUD. The aim was to determine whether inflammatory cytokines are elevated in AUD as they are in HIV infection. Cytokines showing group differences included interferon gamma-induced protein 10 (IP-10) and tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα). Follow-up t-tests revealed that TNFα and IP-10 were higher in AUD than controls but only in AUD patients who were seropositive for Hepatitis C virus (HCV). Specificity of TNFα and IP-10 elevations to HCV infection status was provided by correlations between cytokine levels and HCV viral load and indices of liver integrity including albumin/globulin ratio, fibrosis scores, and AST/platelet count ratio. Because TNFα levels were mediated by HCV infection, this study provides no evidence for elevations in peripheral cytokines in "uncomplicated", abstinent alcoholics, independent of liver disease or HCV infection. Nonetheless, these results corroborate evidence for elevations in IP-10 and TNFα in HIV and for IP-10 levels in HIV+HCV co-infection.

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of One-Time Screening and Treatment for Hepatitis C in Korea

Background and Aims

This study aims to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a one-time hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment program in South Korea where hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevails, in people aged 40–70, compared to current practice (no screening).

Methods

A published Markov model was used in conjunction with a screening and treatment decision tree to model patient cohorts, aged 40–49, 50–59 and 60–69 years, distributed across chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and compensated cirrhosis (CC) health states (82.5% and 17.5%, respectively). Based on a published seroepidemiology study, HCV prevalence was estimated at 0.60%, 0.80% and 1.53%, respectively. An estimated 71.7% of the population was screened. Post-diagnosis, 39.4% of patients were treated with a newly available all-oral direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimen over 5 years. Published rates of sustained virologic response, disease management costs, transition rates and utilities were utilised.

Results

Screening resulted in the identification of 43,635 previously undiagnosed patients across all cohorts. One-time HCV screening and treatment was estimated to be cost-effective across all cohorts; predicted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $5,714 to $8,889 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Incremental costs associated with screening, treatment and disease management ranged from $156.47 to $181.85 million USD; lifetime costs-offsets associated with the avoidance of end stage liver disease complications ranged from $51.47 to $57.48 million USD.

Conclusions

One-time HCV screening and treatment in South Korean people aged 40–70 is likely to be highly cost-effective compared to the current practice of no screening.

Diagnosis and Management of Hepatitis C Virus Infection

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects more than 200 million people globally, with increasing incidence, especially in developing countries. HCV infection frequently progresses to chronic liver disease, creating a heavy economic burden on resource-poor countries and lowering patient quality of life. Effective HCV diagnosis, treatment selection, and treatment monitoring are important in stopping disease progression. Serological assays, which detect anti-HCV antibodies in the patient after seroconversion, are used for initial HCV diagnosis. Qualitative and quantitative molecular assays are used to confirm initial diagnosis, determine viral load, and genotype the dominant strain. Viral load and genotype information are used to guide appropriate treatment. Various other biomarker assays are performed to assess liver function and enable disease staging. Most of these diagnostic methods are mature and routinely used in high-resource countries with well-developed laboratory infrastructure. Few technologies, however, are available that address the needs of low-resource areas with high HCV prevalence, such as Africa and Southeast Asia.