A Comparison of XGBoost, Random Forest, and Nomograph for the Prediction of Disease Severity in Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia: Implications of Cytokine and Immune Cell Profile

An XGBoost Approach to Predictive Modelling of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks in Kenya Using Climatic Factors

Reports of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a highly climate-sensitive zoonotic disease, have been rather frequent in Kenya. Although multiple empirical analyses have shown that machine learning methods outperform time series models in forecasting time series data, there is limited evidence of their application in predicting disease outbreaks in Africa. In recent times, the literature has reported several applications of machine learning in facilitating intelligent decision-making within the healthcare sector and public health. However, there is a scarcity of information regarding the utilization of the XGBoost model for predicting disease outbreaks. Within the provinces of Kenya, the incidence of Rift Valley fever was more prominent in the Rift Valley (26.80%) and Eastern (20.60%) regions. This study investigated the correlation between the occurrence of RVF (rapid vegetation failure) and several climatic variables, including humidity, clay content, elevation, slope, and rainfall. The correlation matrix revealed a modest linear dependence between different climatic variables and RVF cases, with the highest correlation, a mere 0.02903, observed for rainfall. The XGBoost model was trained using these climate variables and achieved outstanding performance measures including an AUC of 0.8908, accuracy of 99.74%, precision of 99.75%, and recall of 99.99%. The analysis of feature importance revealed that rainfall was the most significant predictor. These findings align with previous studies demonstrating the significance of weather conditions in RVF outbreaks. The study’s results indicate that incorporating advanced machine learning models that consider several climatic variables can significantly enhance the prediction and management of RVF incidence.

Development and validation of machine learning-based prediction model for severe pneumonia: A multicenter cohort study

Severe pneumonia (SP) is a prevalent respiratory ailment characterized by high mortality and poor prognosis. Current scoring systems for pneumonia are not only time-consuming but also exhibit limitations in early SP prediction. To address this gap, this study aimed to develop a machine-learning model using inflammatory markers from peripheral blood for early prediction of SP. A total of 204 pneumonia patients from seven medical centers were studied, with 143 (68 SP cases) in the training cohort and 61 (32 SP cases) in the test cohort. Clinical characteristics and laboratory test results were collected at diagnosis. Various models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Decision Tree were built and evaluated. Seven predictors-age, sex, WBC count, T-lymphocyte count, NLR, CRP, TNF-α, IL-4/IFN-γ ratio, IL-6/IL-10 ratio-were selected through LASSO regression and clinical insight. The XGBoost model, exhibiting best performance, achieved an AUC of 0.901 (95 % CI: 0.827 to 0.985) in the test cohort, with an accuracy of 0.803, sensitivity of 0.844, specificity of 0.759, and F1_score of 0.818. Indeed, SHAP analysis emphasized the significance of elevated WBC counts, older age, and elevated CRP as the top predictors. The use of inflammatory biomarkers in this concise predictive model shows significant potential for the rapid assessment of SP risk, thereby facilitating timely preventive interventions.

Feature Identification Using Interpretability Machine Learning Predicting Risk Factors for Disease Severity of In-Patients with COVID-19 in South Florida

Objective: The objective of the study was to establish an AI-driven decision support system by identifying the most important features in the severity of disease for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) with Mechanical Ventilation (MV) requirement, ICU, and InterMediate Care Unit (IMCU) admission for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in South Florida. The features implicated in the risk factors identified by the model interpretability can be used to forecast treatment plans faster before critical conditions exacerbate. Methods: We analyzed eHR data from 5371 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from South Florida Memorial Healthcare Systems admitted between March 2020 and January 2021 to predict the need for ICU with MV, ICU, and IMCU admission. A Random Forest classifier was trained on patients' data augmented by SMOTE, collected at hospital admission. We then compared the importance of features utilizing different model interpretability analyses, such as SHAP, MDI, and Permutation Importance. Results: The models for ICU with MV, ICU, and IMCU admission identified the following factors overlapping as the most important predictors among the three outcomes: age, race, sex, BMI, diarrhea, diabetes, hypertension, early stages of kidney disease, and pneumonia. It was observed that individuals over 65 years ('older adults'), males, current smokers, and BMI classified as 'overweight' and 'obese' were at greater risk of severity of illness. The severity was intensified by the co-occurrence of two interacting features (e.g., diarrhea and diabetes). Conclusions: The top features identified by the models' interpretability were from the 'sociodemographic characteristics', 'pre-hospital comorbidities', and 'medications' categories. However, 'pre-hospital comorbidities' played a vital role in different critical conditions. In addition to individual feature importance, the feature interactions also provide crucial information for predicting the most likely outcome of patients' conditions when urgent treatment plans are needed during the surge of patients during the pandemic.

Immunoprofiles of COVID-19 uniquely differentiated from other viruses: A machine learning investigation of multiplex immunoassay data

Cytokines and chemokines are vital in maintaining a healthy state by efficiently controlling invading microbes. In addition, the dysregulation of these immune mediators can contribute to viral infection pathology. We comprehensively analyzed the profiles of host immunomodulators in response to infections with members of several virus families, particularly if the SARS-CoV-2 infection produces a unique immune profile compared with other viral infections. Multiplex microbead immunoassay results from 219 datasets with a range of viruses were curated systematically. The curated immunoassay data, obtained using Luminex technology, include 35 different viruses in 18 different viral families; this analysis also incorporated data from studies performed in 7 different cell model systems with 28 different sample types. A multivariate statistical analysis was performed with a specific focus involving many investigations (>10), which include the viral families of Coronaviridae, Orthomyxoviridae, Retroviridae, Flaviviridae, and Hantaviridae. A random forest-based classification of the profiles indicates that IL1-RA, C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 9, C-C motif chemokine ligand 4, interferon (IFN)-λ1, IFN-γ-inducing protein 10, and interleukin (IL)-27 are the top immunomodulators among human samples. Similar approaches only between Coronaviridae (COVID-19) and Orthomyxoviridae (influenza A/B) indicated that transforming growth factor-β, IFN-λ1, IL-9, and eotaxin-1 are important features. In particular, the IFN-λ1 protein was implicated as one of the significant immunomodulators differentiating viral family infection. It is evident that Coronaviridae infection, including SARS-CoV-2, induces a unique cytokine-chemokine profile and can lead to specific immunoassays for diagnosing and prognosis of viral diseases based on host immune responses. Alternatively, we can use diagnosing and prognosing. It is also essential to note that meta-analysis-based predictions must be appropriately validated before clinical implementation.

Towards Improved XAI-Based Epidemiological Research into the Next Potential Pandemic

By applying AI techniques to a variety of pandemic-relevant data, artificial intelligence (AI) has substantially supported the control of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Along with this, epidemiological machine learning studies of SARS-CoV-2 have been frequently published. While these models can be perceived as precise and policy-relevant to guide governments towards optimal containment policies, their black box nature can hamper building trust and relying confidently on the prescriptions proposed. This paper focuses on interpretable AI-based epidemiological models in the context of the recent SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We systematically review existing studies, which jointly incorporate AI, SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, and explainable AI approaches (XAI). First, we propose a conceptual framework by synthesizing the main methodological features of the existing AI pipelines of SARS-CoV-2. Upon the proposed conceptual framework and by analyzing the selected epidemiological studies, we reflect on current research gaps in epidemiological AI toolboxes and how to fill these gaps to generate enhanced policy support in the next potential pandemic.

Prediction of short-term progression of COVID-19 pneumonia based on chest CT artificial intelligence: during the Omicron epidemic

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The persistent progression of pneumonia is a critical determinant of adverse outcomes in patients afflicted with COVID-19. This study aimed to predict personalized COVID-19 pneumonia progression between the duration of two weeks and 1 month after admission by integrating radiological and clinical features.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis, approved by the Institutional Review Board, encompassed patients diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia between December 2022 and February 2023. The cohort was divided into training and validation groups in a 7:3 ratio. A trained multi-task U-Net network was deployed to segment COVID-19 pneumonia and lung regions in CT images, from which quantitative features were extracted. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was employed to construct a radiological model. A clinical model was constructed by LASSO method and stepwise regression analysis, followed by the subsequent construction of the combined model. Model performance was assessed using ROC and decision curve analysis (DCA), while Shapley's Additive interpretation (SHAP) illustrated the importance of CT features.

RESULTS

A total of 214 patients were recruited in our study. Four clinical characteristics and four CT features were identified as pivotal components for constructing the clinical and radiological models. The final four clinical characteristics were incorporated as well as the RS_radiological model to construct the combined prediction model. SHAP analysis revealed that CT score difference exerted the most significant influence on the predictive performance of the radiological model. The training group's radiological, clinical, and combined models exhibited AUC values of 0.89, 0.72, and 0.92, respectively. Correspondingly, in the validation group, these values were observed to be 0.75, 0.72, and 0.81. The DCA curve showed that the combined model exhibited greater clinical utility than the clinical or radiological models.

CONCLUSION

Our novel combined model, fusing quantitative CT features with clinical characteristics, demonstrated effective prediction of COVID-19 pneumonia progression from 2 weeks to 1 month after admission. This comprehensive model can potentially serve as a valuable tool for clinicians to develop personalized treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes.

Implementation of a Machine Learning Approach Evaluating Risk Factors for Complications after Single-Stage Augmentation Mastopexy

BACKGROUND

Single-stage mastopexy augmentation is a much-debated intervention due to its complexity and the associated relatively high complication rates. This study aimed to reevaluate the risk factors for these complications using a novel approach based on artificial intelligence and to demonstrate its possible limitations.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Complete datasets of patients who underwent single-staged augmentation mastopexy during 2014-2023 at one institution by a single surgeon were collected retrospectively. These were subsequently processed and analyzed by CART, RF and XGBoost algorithms.

RESULTS

A total of 342 patients were included in the study, of which 43 (12.57%) reported surgery-associated complications, whereby capsular contracture (n = 19) was the most common. BMI represented the most important variable for the development of complications (FIS = 0.44 in CART). 2.9% of the patients expressed the desire for implant change in the course, with absence of any complications. A statistically significant correlation between smoking and the desire for implant change (p < 0.001) was revealed.

CONCLUSION

The importance of implementing artificial intelligence into clinical research could be underpinned by this study, as risk variables can be reclassified based on factors previously considered less or even irrelevant. Thereby we encountered limitations using ML approaches. Further studies will be needed to investigate the association between smoking, BMI and the current implant size with the desire for implant change without any complications. Moreover, we could show that the procedure can be performed safely without high risk of developing major complications.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE IV

This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

Prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus at the first trimester: machine-learning algorithms

PURPOSE

Short- and long-term complications of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) involving pregnancies and offspring warrant the development of an effective individualized risk prediction model to reduce and prevent GDM together with its associated co-morbidities. The aim is to use machine learning (ML) algorithms to study data gathered throughout the first trimester in order to predict GDM.

METHODS

Two independent cohorts with forty-five features gathered through first trimester were included. We constructed prediction models based on three different algorithms and traditional logistic regression, and deployed additional two ensemble algorithms to identify the importance of individual features.

RESULTS

4799 and 2795 pregnancies were included in the Xinhua Hospital Chongming branch (XHCM) and the Shanghai Pudong New Area People's Hospital (SPNPH) cohorts, respectively. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) predicted GDM with moderate performance (the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) = 0.75) at pregnancy initiation and good-to-excellent performance (AUC = 0.99) at the end of the first trimester in the XHCM cohort. The trained XGBoost showed moderate performance in the SPNPH cohort (AUC = 0.83). The top predictive features for GDM diagnosis were pre-pregnancy BMI and maternal abdominal circumference at pregnancy initiation, and FPG and HbA1c at the end of the first trimester.

CONCLUSION

Our work demonstrated that ML models based on the data gathered throughout the first trimester achieved moderate performance in the external validation cohort.

A prognostic model for SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection: Analyzing a prospective cellular immunity cohort

BACKGROUND

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, studies have identified several prevalent characteristics, especially related to lymphocyte subsets. However, limited research is available on the focus of this study, namely, the specific memory cell subsets among individuals who received COVID-19 vaccine boosters and subsequently experienced a SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection.

METHODS

Flow cytometry (FCM) was employed to investigate the early and longitudinal pattern changes of cellular immunity in patients with SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections following COVID-19 vaccine boosters. XGBoost (a machine learning algorithm) was employed to analyze cellular immunity prior to SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough, aiming to establish a prognostic model for SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections.

RESULTS

Following SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection, naïve T cells and TEMRA subsets increased while the percentage of TCM and TEM cells decreased. Naïve and non-switched memory B cells increased while switched and double-negative memory B cells decreased. The XGBoost model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78, with an accuracy rate of 81.8 %, a sensitivity of 75 %, and specificity of 85.7 %. TNF-α, CD27-CD19+cells, and TEMRA subsets were identified as high predictors. An increase in TNF-α, cTfh, double-negative memory B cells, IL-6, IL-10, and IFN-γ prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with enduring clinical symptoms; conversely, an increase in CD3+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, and IL-2 was associated with clinical with non-enduring clinical symptoms.

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection leads to disturbances in cellular immunity. Assessing cellular immunity prior to breakthrough infection serves as a valuable prognostic tool for SARS-CoV-2 infection, which facilitates clinical decision-making.

Assessing the risk of concurrent mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children with tracheobronchial tuberculosis: retrospective study

Objective

This study aimed to create a predictive model based on machine learning to identify the risk for tracheobronchial tuberculosis (TBTB) occurring alongside Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in pediatric patients.

Methods

Clinical data from 212 pediatric patients were examined in this retrospective analysis. This cohort included 42 individuals diagnosed with TBTB and Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (combined group) and 170 patients diagnosed with lobar pneumonia alone (pneumonia group). Three predictive models, namely XGBoost, decision tree, and logistic regression, were constructed, and their performances were assessed using the receiver's operating characteristic (ROC) curve, precision-recall curve (PR), and decision curve analysis (DCA). The dataset was divided into a 7:3 ratio to test the first and second groups, utilizing them to validate the XGBoost model and to construct the nomogram model.

Results

The XGBoost highlighted eight significant signatures, while the decision tree and logistic regression models identified six and five signatures, respectively. The ROC analysis revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.996 for XGBoost, significantly outperforming the other models (p < 0.05). Similarly, the PR curve demonstrated the superior predictive capability of XGBoost. DCA further confirmed that XGBoost offered the highest AIC (43.226), the highest average net benefit (0.764), and the best model fit. Validation efforts confirmed the robustness of the findings, with the validation groups 1 and 2 showing ROC and PR curves with AUC of 0.997, indicating a high net benefit. The nomogram model was shown to possess significant clinical value.

Conclusion

Compared to machine learning approaches, the XGBoost model demonstrated superior predictive efficacy in identifying pediatric patients at risk of concurrent TBTB and Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia. The model's identification of critical signatures provides valuable insights into the pathogenesis of these conditions.

Evaluating Machine Learning Stability in Predicting Depression and Anxiety Amidst Subjective Response Errors

Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) pose significant burdens on individuals and society, necessitating accurate prediction methods. Machine learning (ML) algorithms utilizing electronic health records and survey data offer promising tools for forecasting these conditions. However, potential bias and inaccuracies inherent in subjective survey responses can undermine the precision of such predictions. This research investigates the reliability of five prominent ML algorithms-a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Random Forest, XGBoost, Logistic Regression, and Naive Bayes-in predicting MDD and GAD. A dataset rich in biomedical, demographic, and self-reported survey information is used to assess the algorithms' performance under different levels of subjective response inaccuracies. These inaccuracies simulate scenarios with potential memory recall bias and subjective interpretations. While all algorithms demonstrate commendable accuracy with high-quality survey data, their performance diverges significantly when encountering erroneous or biased responses. Notably, the CNN exhibits superior resilience in this context, maintaining performance and even achieving enhanced accuracy, Cohen's kappa score, and positive precision for both MDD and GAD. This highlights the CNN's superior ability to handle data unreliability, making it a potentially advantageous choice for predicting mental health conditions based on self-reported data. These findings underscore the critical importance of algorithmic resilience in mental health prediction, particularly when relying on subjective data. They emphasize the need for careful algorithm selection in such contexts, with the CNN emerging as a promising candidate due to its robustness and improved performance under data uncertainties.

Predicting Co-Occurring Mental Health and Substance Use Disorders in Women: An Automated Machine Learning Approach

Significant clinical overlap exists between mental health and substance use disorders, especially among women. The purpose of this research is to leverage an AutoML (Automated Machine Learning) interface to predict and distinguish co-occurring mental health (MH) and substance use disorders (SUD) among women. By employing various modeling algorithms for binary classification, including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Trees, XGBoost, Extra Trees, SGD, Deep Neural Network, Single-Layer Perceptron, K Nearest Neighbors (grid), and a super learning model (constructed by combining the predictions of a Random Forest model and an XGBoost model), the research aims to provide healthcare practitioners with a powerful tool for earlier identification, intervention, and personalised support for women at risk. The present research presents a machine learning (ML) methodology for more accurately predicting the co-occurrence of mental health (MH) and substance use disorders (SUD) in women, utilising the Treatment Episode Data Set Admissions (TEDS-A) from the year 2020 (n = 497,175). A super learning model was constructed by combining the predictions of a Random Forest model and an XGBoost model. The model demonstrated promising predictive performance in predicting co-occurring MH and SUD in women with an AUC = 0.817, Accuracy = 0.751, Precision = 0.743, Recall = 0.926 and F1 Score = 0.825. The use of accurate prediction models can substantially facilitate the prompt identification and implementation of intervention strategies.

Human Endocrine-Disrupting Effects of Phthalate Esters through Adverse Outcome Pathways: A Comprehensive Mechanism Analysis

Phthalate esters (PAEs) are widely exposed in the environment as plasticizers in plastics, and they have been found to cause significant environmental and health hazards, especially in terms of endocrine disruption in humans. In order to investigate the processes underlying the endocrine disruption effects of PAEs, three machine learning techniques were used in this study to build an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) for those effects on people. According to the results of the three machine learning techniques, the random forest and XGBoost models performed well in terms of prediction. Subsequently, sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the initial events, key events, and key features influencing the endocrine disruption effects of PAEs on humans. Key features, such as Mol.Wt, Q+, QH+, ELUMO, minHCsats, MEDC-33, and EG, were found to be closely related to the molecular structure. Therefore, a 3D-QSAR model for PAEs was constructed, and, based on the three-dimensional potential energy surface information, it was discovered that the hydrophobic, steric, and electrostatic fields of PAEs significantly influence their endocrine disruption effects on humans. Lastly, an analysis of the contributions of amino acid residues and binding energy (BE) was performed, identifying and confirming that hydrogen bonding, hydrophobic interactions, and van der Waals forces are important factors affecting the AOP of PAEs' molecular endocrine disruption effects. This study defined and constructed a comprehensive AOP for the endocrine disruption effects of PAEs on humans and developed a method based on theoretical simulation to characterize the AOP, providing theoretical guidance for studying the mechanisms of toxicity caused by other pollutants.

Glutamine and amino acid metabolism as a prognostic signature and therapeutic target in endometrial cancer

INTRODUCTION

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the most common female reproductive system cancer in developed countries with growing incidence and associated mortality, which may be due to the growing prevalence of obesity. Metabolism reprogramming including glucose, amino acid, and lipid remodeling is a hallmark of tumors. Glutamine metabolism has been reported to participate in tumor proliferation and development. This study aimed to develop a glutamine metabolism-related prognostic model for EC and explore potential targets for cancer treatment.

METHOD

Transcriptomic data and survival outcome of EC were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Differentially expressed genes related to glutamine metabolism were recognized and utilized to build a prognostic model by univariate and multivariate Cox regressions. The model was confirmed in the training, testing, and the entire cohort. A nomogram combing prognostic model and clinicopathologic features was established and tested. Moreover, we explored the effect of a key metabolic enzyme, PHGDH, on the biological behavior of EC cell lines and xenograft model.

RESULTS

Five glutamine metabolism-related genes, including PHGDH, OTC, ASRGL1, ASNS, and NR1H4, were involved in prognostic model construction. Kaplan-Meier curve suggested that patients recognized as high risk underwent inferior outcomes. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed the model was sufficient to predict survival. Enrichment analysis recognized DNA replication and repair dysfunction in high-risk patients whereas immune relevance analysis revealed low immune scores in the high-risk group. Finally, a nomogram integrating the prognostic model and clinical factors was created and verified. Further, knockdown of PHGDH showed cell growth inhibition, increasing apoptosis, and reduced migration. Promisingly, NCT-503, a PHGDH inhibitor, significantly repressed tumor growth in vivo (p = 0.0002).

CONCLUSION

Our work established and validated a glutamine metabolism-related prognostic model that favorably evaluates the prognosis of EC patients. DNA replication and repair may be the crucial point that linked glutamine metabolism, amino acid metabolism, and EC progression. High-risk patients stratified by the model may not be sufficient for immune therapy. PHGDH might be a crucial target that links serine metabolism, glutamine metabolism as well as EC progression.

Molecular characterization of colorectal adenoma and colorectal cancer via integrated genomic transcriptomic analysis

Introduction

Colorectal adenoma can develop into colorectal cancer. Determining the risk of tumorigenesis in colorectal adenoma would be critical for avoiding the development of colorectal cancer; however, genomic features that could help predict the risk of tumorigenesis remain uncertain.

Methods

In this work, DNA and RNA parallel capture sequencing data covering 519 genes from colorectal adenoma and colorectal cancer samples were collected. The somatic mutation profiles were obtained from DNA sequencing data, and the expression profiles were obtained from RNA sequencing data.

Results

Despite some similarities between the adenoma samples and the cancer samples, different mutation frequencies, co-occurrences, and mutually exclusive patterns were detected in the mutation profiles of patients with colorectal adenoma and colorectal cancer. Differentially expressed genes were also detected between the two patient groups using RNA sequencing. Finally, two random forest classification models were built, one based on mutation profiles and one based on expression profiles. The models distinguished adenoma and cancer samples with accuracy levels of 81.48% and 100.00%, respectively, showing the potential of the 519-gene panel for monitoring adenoma patients in clinical practice.

Conclusion

This study revealed molecular characteristics and correlations between colorectal adenoma and colorectal cancer, and it demonstrated that the 519-gene panel may be used for early monitoring of the progression of colorectal adenoma to cancer.

XGBoost-based machine learning test improves the accuracy of hemorrhage prediction among geriatric patients with long-term administration of rivaroxaban

BACKGROUND

Hemorrhage is a potential and serious adverse drug reaction, especially for geriatric patients with long-term administration of rivaroxaban. It is essential to establish an effective model for predicting bleeding events, which could improve the safety of rivaroxaban use in clinical practice.

METHODS

The hemorrhage information of 798 geriatric patients (over the age of 70 years) who needed long-term administration of rivaroxaban for anticoagulation therapy was constantly tracked and recorded through a well-established clinical follow-up system. Relying on the 27 collected clinical indicators of these patients, conventional logistic regression analysis, random forest and XGBoost-based machine learning approaches were applied to analyze the hemorrhagic risk factors and establish the corresponding prediction models. Furthermore, the performance of the models was tested and compared by the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

A total of 112 patients (14.0%) had bleeding adverse events after treatment with rivaroxaban for more than 3 months. Among them, 96 patients had gastrointestinal and intracranial hemorrhage during treatment, which accounted for 83.18% of the total hemorrhagic events. The logistic regression, random forest and XGBoost models were established with AUCs of 0.679, 0.672 and 0.776, respectively. The XGBoost model showed the best predictive performance in terms of discrimination, accuracy and calibration among all the models.

CONCLUSION

An XGBoost-based model with good discrimination and accuracy was built to predict the hemorrhage risk of rivaroxaban, which will facilitate individualized treatment for geriatric patients.

Multidimensional analysis of immune cells from COVID-19 patients identified cell subsets associated with the severity at hospital admission

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 emerged as a new coronavirus causing COVID-19, and it has been responsible for more than 760 million cases and 6.8 million deaths worldwide until March 2023. Although infected individuals could be asymptomatic, other patients presented heterogeneity and a wide range of symptoms. Therefore, identifying those infected individuals and being able to classify them according to their expected severity could help target health efforts more effectively.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Therefore, we wanted to develop a machine learning model to predict those who will develop severe disease at the moment of hospital admission. We recruited 75 individuals and analysed innate and adaptive immune system subsets by flow cytometry. Also, we collected clinical and biochemical information. The objective of the study was to leverage machine learning techniques to identify clinical features associated with disease severity progression. Additionally, the study sought to elucidate the specific cellular subsets involved in the disease following the onset of symptoms. Among the several machine learning models tested, we found that the Elastic Net model was the better to predict the severity score according to a modified WHO classification. This model was able to predict the severity score of 72 out of 75 individuals. Besides, all the machine learning models revealed that CD38+ Treg and CD16+ CD56neg HLA-DR+ NK cells were highly correlated with the severity.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The Elastic Net model could stratify the uninfected individuals and the COVID-19 patients from asymptomatic to severe COVID-19 patients. On the other hand, these cellular subsets presented here could help to understand better the induction and progression of the symptoms in COVID-19 individuals.

Identification of intestinal microbiome associated with lymph-vascular invasion in colorectal cancer patients and predictive label construction

Objective

To identify differences between the composition, abundance, and biological function of the intestinal microbiome of patients with and without lymph-vascular invasion (LVI) colorectal cancer (CRC) and to construct predictive labels to support accurate assessment of LVI in CRC.

Method

134 CRC patients were included, which were divided into two groups according to the presence or absence of LVI, and their intestinal microbiomes were sequenced by 16SrRNA and analyzed for differences. The transcriptome sequencing data of 9 CRC patients were transformed into immune cells abundance matrix by CIBERSORT algorithm, and the correlation among LVI-associated differential intestinal microbiomes, immune cells, immune-related genes and LVI-associated differential GO items and KEGG pathways were analyzed. A random forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model were constructed to predict the LVI of CRC patients based on the differential microbiome.

Result

There was no significant difference in α-diversity and β-diversity of intestinal microbiome between CRC patients with and without LVI (P > 0.05). Linear discriminant analysis Effect Size (LEfSe) analysis showed 34 intestinal microbiomes enriched in CRC patients of the LVI group and 5 intestinal microbiomes were significantly enriched in CRC patients of the non-lymph-vascular invasion (NLVI) group. The RF and XGB prediction models constructed with the top 15% of the LVI-associated differential intestinal microbiomes ranked by feature significance had good efficacy.

Conclusions

There are 39 intestinal flora with significantly different species abundance between the LVI and NLVI groups. g:Alistipes.s:Alistipes_indistinctus is closely associated with colorectal cancer vascular invasion. LVI-associated differential intestinal flora may be involved in regulating the infiltration of immune cells in CRC and influencing the expression of immune-related genes. LVI-associated differential intestinal flora may influence the process of vascular invasion in CRC through a number of potential biological functions. RF prediction models and XGB prediction models constructed based on microbial markers of gut flora can be used to predict CRC-LVI conditions.

Potential predictors of severe course and outcome of community-acquired pneumonia

Severe pneumonia is a condition with a high risk of death and mandatory hospitalization in the intensive care unit. The incidence of severe pneumonia has increased dramatically during the pandemic of new coronavirus infection. Timely diagnosis and early initiation of adequate treatment of severe pneumonia are crucial for improving survival of critically ill patients.

The aim of this review was to analyze published scientific research on molecular markers that allow to objectively assess the severity of pneumonia and to determine treatment tactics based on the predicted outcome upon admission to the hospital. A systematic search was conducted in the electronic databases PubMed, Medline, Web of Science for the period 2019 - 2022.

Conclusion. The review focuses on the prognostic role of a number of markers of immune response, vascular transformation, as well as angiotensin II and angiotensin converting enzyme-2. Further prospective studies of potential predictors of severe pneumonia will enable using marker molecules in a comprehensive clinical and laboratory diagnosis for early prediction of the hospitalized patient’s condition and expected outcome.

OWL: an optimized and independently validated machine learning prediction model for lung cancer screening based on the UK Biobank, PLCO, and NLST populations

BACKGROUND

A reliable risk prediction model is critically important for identifying individuals with high risk of developing lung cancer as candidates for low-dose chest computed tomography (LDCT) screening. Leveraging a cutting-edge machine learning technique that accommodates a wide list of questionnaire-based predictors, we sought to optimize and validate a lung cancer prediction model.

METHODS

We developed an Optimized early Warning model for Lung cancer risk (OWL) using the XGBoost algorithm with 323,344 participants from the England area in UK Biobank (training set), and independently validated it with 93,227 participants from UKB Scotland and Wales area (validation set 1), as well as 70,605 and 66,231 participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian cancer screening trial (PLCO) control and intervention subpopulations, respectively (validation sets 2 & 3) and 23,138 and 18,669 participants in the United States National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) control and intervention subpopulations, respectively (validation sets 4 & 5). By comparing with three competitive prediction models, i.e., PLCO modified 2012 (PLCOm2012), PLCO modified 2014 (PLCOall2014), and the Liverpool Lung cancer Project risk model version 3 (LLPv3), we assessed the discrimination of OWL by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at the designed time point. We further evaluated the calibration using relative improvement in the ratio of expected to observed lung cancer cases (RIEO), and illustrated the clinical utility by the decision curve analysis.

FINDINGS

For general population, with validation set 1, OWL (AUC = 0.855, 95% CI: 0.829-0.880) presented a better discriminative capability than PLCOall2014 (AUC = 0.821, 95% CI: 0.794-0.848) (p < 0.001); with validation sets 2 & 3, AUC of OWL was comparable to PLCOall2014 (AUCPLCOall2014-AUCOWL < 1%). For ever-smokers, OWL outperformed PLCOm2012 and PLCOall2014 among ever-smokers in validation set 1 (AUCOWL = 0.842, 95% CI: 0.814-0.871; AUCPLCOm2012 = 0.792, 95% CI: 0.760-0.823; AUCPLCOall2014 = 0.791, 95% CI: 0.760-0.822, all p < 0.001). OWL remained comparable to PLCOm2012 and PLCOall2014 in discrimination (AUC difference from -0.014 to 0.008) among the ever-smokers in validation sets 2 to 5. In all the validation sets, OWL outperformed LLPv3 among the general population and the ever-smokers. Of note, OWL showed significantly better calibration than PLCOm2012, PLCOall2014 (RIEO from 43.1% to 92.3%, all p < 0.001), and LLPv3 (RIEO from 41.4% to 98.7%, all p < 0.001) in most cases. For clinical utility, OWL exhibited significant improvement in average net benefits (NB) over PLCOall2014 in validation set 1 (NB improvement: 32, p < 0.001); among ever smokers of validation set 1, OWL (average NB = 289) retained significant improvement over PLCOm2012 (average NB = 213) (p < 0.001). OWL had equivalent NBs with PLCOm2012 and PLCOall2014 in PLCO and NLST populations, while outperforming LLPv3 in the three populations.

INTERPRETATION

OWL, with a high degree of predictive accuracy and robustness, is a general framework with scientific justifications and clinical utility that can aid in screening individuals with high risks of lung cancer.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, the US NIH.

Predicting pneumonia during hospitalization in flail chest patients using machine learning approaches

Objective

Pneumonia is a common pulmonary complication of flail chest, causing high morbidity and mortality rates in affected patients. The existing methods for identifying pneumonia have low accuracy, and their use may delay antimicrobial therapy. However, machine learning can be combined with electronic medical record systems to identify information and assist in quick clinical decision-making. Our study aimed to develop a novel machine-learning model to predict pneumonia risk in flail chest patients.

Methods

From January 2011 to December 2021, the electronic medical records of 169 adult patients with flail chest at a tertiary teaching hospital in an urban level I Trauma Centre in Chongqing were retrospectively analysed. Then, the patients were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 7:3. Using the Fisher score, the best subset of variables was chosen. The performance of the seven models was evaluated by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The output of the XGBoost model was shown using the Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method.

Results

Of 802 multiple rib fracture patients, 169 flail chest patients were eventually included, and 86 (50.80%) were diagnosed with pneumonia. The XGBoost model performed the best among all seven machine-learning models. The AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.895 (sensitivity: 84.3%; specificity: 80.0%).Pneumonia in flail chest patients was associated with several features: systolic blood pressure, pH value, blood transfusion, and ISS.

Conclusion

Our study demonstrated that the XGBoost model with 32 variables had high reliability in assessing risk indicators of pneumonia in flail chest patients. The SHAP method can identify vital pneumonia risk factors, making the XGBoost model's output clinically meaningful.

Application of Machine Learning to Improve Appropriateness of Treatment in an Orthopaedic Setting of Personalized Medicine

The rise of personalized medicine and its remarkable advancements have revealed new requirements for the availability of appropriate medical decision-making models. Computer science is an area that plays an essential role in the field of personalized medicine, where one of the goals is to provide algorithms and tools to extrapolate knowledge and improve the decision-support process. The minimum clinically important difference (MCID) is the smallest change in PROM scores that patients perceive as meaningful. Treatment that does not achieve the minimum level of improvement is considered inappropriate as well as a potential waste of resources. Using the MCID threshold to identify patients who fail to achieve the minimum change in PROM that results in a meaningful outcome may aid in pre-surgical shared decision-making. The decision tree algorithm is a method for extracting valuable information and providing further meaningful information to the domain expert that supports the decision-making. In the present study, different tools based on machine learning were developed. On the one hand, we compared three XGBoost models to predict the non-achievement of the MCID at six months post-operation in the SF-12 physical score. The prediction score threshold was set to 0.75 to provide three decision-making areas on the basis of the high confidence (HC) intervals; the minority class was re-balanced by weighting the positive class to penalize the loss function (XGBoost cost-sensitive), oversampling the minority class (XGBoost with SMOTE), and re-sampling the negative class (XGBoost with undersampling). On the other hand, we modeled the data through a decision tree (assessment tree), based on different complexity levels, to identify the hidden pattern and to provide a new way to understand possible relationships between the gathered features and the several outcomes. The results showed that all the proposed models were effective as binary classifiers, as they showed moderate predictive performance both regarding the minority or positive class (i.e., our targeted patients, those who will not benefit from surgery) and the negative class. The decision tree visualization can be exploited during the patient assessment status to better understand if those patients will benefit or not from the medical intervention. Both of these tools can come in handy for increasing knowledge about the patient’s psychophysical state and for creating an increasingly specialized assessment of the individual patient.