Interleukin-6 is better than C-reactive protein for the prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis

Prediction of in-hospital Mortality of Intensive Care Unit Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Based on an Explainable Machine Learning Algorithm

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is potentially fatal. Therefore, early identification of patients at a high mortality risk and timely intervention are essential. This study aimed to establish an explainable machine-learning model for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with AP.

METHODS

Data on patients with AP, including demographics, vital signs, laboratory tests, comorbidities, treatment, complication, and severity scores, were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and the eICU collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Based on the data from MIMIC-IV, we used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm to select variables and then established 9 machine-learning models and screened the optimal model. Data from the eICU-CRD were used for external validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, decision curve, and calibration plots were used to assess the models' efficacy. Shapley's additive explanation values were used to explain the model.

RESULTS

Gaussian naive Bayes (GNB) model had the best performance on the data from MIMIC-IV, with an AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.840, 0.787, 0.839, and 0.792, respectively. The GNB model also performed well on the data from the eICU-CRD, with an AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.862, 0.833, 0.848, and 0.763, respectively. According to Shapley's additive explanation values, the top 4 predictive factors were maximum red cell distribution width, minimum saturation of blood oxygen, maximum blood urea nitrogen, and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.

CONCLUSION

The GNB model demonstrated excellent performance and generalizability in predicting mortality in ICU patients with AP. Therefore, it can identify patients at a high mortality risk.

Infected pancreatic necrosis-Current trends in management

Acute necrotizing pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal disease requiring hospitalization and multiple interventions resulting in higher morbidity and mortality. Development of infection in such necrotic tissue is one of the sentinel events in natural history of necrotizing pancreatitis. Infected necrosis develops in around 1/3rd of patients with necrotizing pancreatitis resulting in higher mortality. So, timely diagnosis of infected necrosis using clinical, laboratory and radiological parameters is of utmost importance. Though initial conservative management with antibiotics and organ support system is effective in some patients, a majority of patients still requires drainage of the collection by various modalities. Mode of drainage of infected pancreatic necrosis depends on various factors such as the clinical status of the patient, location and characteristics of collection and availability of the expertise and includes endoscopic, percutaneous and minimally invasive or open surgical approaches. Endoscopic drainage has proved to be a game changer in the management of infected pancreatic necrosis in the last decade with rapid evolution in procedure techniques, development of novel metal stent and dedicated necrosectomy devices for better clinical outcome. Despite widespread adoption of endoscopic transluminal drainage of pancreatic necrosis with excellent clinical outcomes, peripheral collections are still not amenable for endoscopic drainage and in such scenario, the role of percutaneous catheter drainage or minimally invasive surgical necrosectomy cannot be understated. In a nutshell, the management of patients with infected pancreatic necrosis involves a multi-disciplinary team including a gastroenterologist, an intensivist, an interventional radiologist and a surgeon for optimum clinical outcomes.

Effect of cytokines on advanced hepatocellular carcinoma prognosis receiving radiotherapy and tislelizumab plus anlotinib: a single-center phase II clinical trial

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between circulating cytokines and liver function and prognosis of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with radiotherapy combined with tislelizumab and anlotinib. The liver function indexes and pre-treatment levels of cytokines in 47 patients were measured by chemical method and flow cytometry. The median follow-up was 23.1 months. The objective response and the disease control rates were 46.8% and 68.1%, while overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 12.6 and 11.4 months, respectively. Adverse events (2.1%) were grade 3-4. In addition to stage, intrahepatic metastasis and Child-Pugh score, pre-treatment interleukin-6 (IL-6) was the main cytokine affecting OS and PFS (p < 0.05). The OS (14.63 pg/mL as cutoff value) and PFS (9.85 pg/mL as cutoff value) of patients with low IL-6 levels exceeded those with high levels (21.0 and 6.9, 15.8 and 10.0 months, respectively). The risks of death and disease progression were reduced by 63.0% (HR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.19-0.72) and 43.0% (HR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.22-1.47), respectively. Pre-treatment IL-6 levels may be a simple and effective prognostic indicator for patients with advanced HCC treated with radiotherapy combined with immunotargeted therapy.

Prediction of severe hypertriglyceridemia-associated acute pancreatitis using a nomogram based on CT findings and blood biomarkers

Hypertriglyceridemia is a common cause of acute pancreatitis (AP). Fatty liver, a manifestation of metabolic syndrome, is related to the severity of AP. The present study aimed to construct an accurate predictive model for severe AP (SAP) by combining the fatty liver infiltration on a computerized tomography (CT) scan with a series of blood biomarkers in patients with hypertriglyceridemia-associated AP (HTG-AP). A total of 213 patients diagnosed with HTG-AP were included in the present retrospective study. Clinical information and imageological findings were retrospectively analyzed. The model was constructed from independent risk factors using univariate analysis, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. Subsequently, the data from the training group of 111 patients with HTG-AP was analyzed using logistic regression analysis. The efficacy of the model was verified using an external validation group of 102 patients through the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Independent predictors, including serum calcium, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase and liver-to-spleen CT attenuation ratio (L/S ratio), were incorporated into the nomogram model for SAP in HTG-AP. The model achieved a sensitivity of 91.3% and a specificity of 88.6% in the training group. Compared with the Ranson model, the established nomogram model exhibited a better discriminative ability in the training group [area under the curve (AUC): 0.957] and external validation group (AUC: 0.930), as well as better calibration and clinical benefits. The present study demonstrates that the constructed nomogram based on CT findings and blood biomarkers is useful for the accurate prediction of SAP in HTG-AP.

The Role of Inflammatory Biomarkers in Mediating the Effect of Inflammatory Bowel Disease on nonmalignant Digestive System Diseases: A Multivariable Mendelian Randomized Study

Background

While observation studies have shown a positive correlation between inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and the risk of nonmalignant digestive system diseases, a definitive causal relationship has not yet been clearly established.

Methods

Mendelian randomization (MR) was employed to investigate the potential causal association between genetic susceptibility to IBD and nonmalignant gastrointestinal diseases. Genetic variants were extracted as instrumental variables (IVs) from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis, which included 12,194 cases of Crohn's disease (CD) and 28,072 control cases of European ancestry. The GWAS for ulcerative colitis (UC) included 12,366 UC and 33,609 control cases of European ancestry. All IVs reached genome-wide significance (GWAS p value <5 × 10-8). Summary-level data for acute pancreatitis (AP), irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), gastroesophageal reflux disease, cholelithiasis, and CeD (celiac disease) were obtained from the GWAS meta-analysis and the FinnGen dataset. Summary-level data on relevant inflammatory factors were provided by the International Genetic Consortium. Univariate MR analysis was conducted using inverse variance weighting as the primary method for estimating causal effects. Multivariate MR analyses were also performed to detect possible mediators.

Results

Genetic susceptibility to UC was associated with an increased risk of AP (OR = 1.08; 95% CI = 1.03-1.13; p=0.002) and IBS odds ratio (OR] = 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI] = 1.03-1.11; (p < 0.001). In terms of potential mediators, interleukin 6 (IL-6) had a driving effect on the association between UC and AP. There was no apparent evidence of increased risk with CD. Meanwhile, genetic susceptibility to CD increases the risk of CeD (OR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.03-1.25; p=0.01).

Conclusions

The evidence suggests that UC is associated with an elevated risk of AP and IBS, and IL-6 may be responsible in AP. CD is associated with an increased risk of developing CeD. Implementing a proactive monitoring program for assessing the risk of gastrointestinal diseases in UC patients, particularly those with elevated IL-6 levels, may be of interest. In addition, the presence of AP and IBS may indicate the presence of UC. Preventing CeD is an essential consideration in the therapeutic management of patients with CD.

Pancreatitis affects gut microbiota via metabolites and inflammatory cytokines: an exploratory two-step Mendelian randomisation study

Previous studies have observed relationships between pancreatitis and gut microbiota; however, specific changes in gut microbiota abundance and underlying mechanisms in pancreatitis remain unknown. Metabolites are important for gut microbiota to fulfil their biological functions, and changes in the metabolic and immune environments are closely linked to changes in microbiota abundance. We aimed to clarify the mechanisms of gut-pancreas interactions and explore the possible role of metabolites and the immune system. To this end, we conducted two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to evaluate the casual links between four different types of pancreatitis and gut microbiota, metabolites, and inflammatory cytokines. A two-step MR analysis was conducted to further evaluate the probable mediating pathways involving metabolites and inflammatory cytokines in the causal relationship between pancreatitis and gut microbiota. In total, six potential mediators were identified in the causal relationship between pancreatitis and gut microbiota. Nineteen species of gut microbiota and seven inflammatory cytokines were genetically associated with the four types of pancreatitis. Metabolites involved in glucose and amino acid metabolisms were genetically associated with chronic pancreatitis, and those involved in lipid metabolism were genetically associated with acute pancreatitis. Our study identified alterations in the gut microbiota, metabolites, and inflammatory cytokines in pancreatitis at the genetic level and found six potential mediators of the pancreas-gut axis, which may provide insights into the precise diagnosis of pancreatitis and treatment interventions for gut microbiota to prevent the exacerbation of pancreatitis. Future studies could elucidate the mechanism underlying the association between pancreatitis and the gut microbiota.

Interleukins: pathophysiological role in acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common inflammatory state characterized by a clinical course that can lead to serious local and extrapancreatic organ malfunction and failure. Interleukins (ILs) are biologically active glycoproteins primarily produced by macrophages and lymphocytes. According to the literature, there are many ILs. However, this article represents a summary of the role of ILs in AP, such as IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-10, IL-11, IL-12, IL-13, IL-14, IL-15, IL-16, IL-17, IL-18, IL-19, and IL-20. The ways to modulate IL activity to reduce inflammation and improve outcomes in individuals with this condition are under investigation. Drugs that target specific ILs might be developed to mitigate the effects of AP.

Persistently High Procalcitonin and C-Reactive Protein Are Good Predictors of Infection in Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP) is associated with an increased risk of organ failure and mortality. Its early recognition and timely initiation of antibiotic therapy can save patients' lives. We systematically searched three databases on 27 October 2022. In the eligible studies, the presence of infection in necrotizing pancreatitis was confirmed via a reference test, which involved either the identification of gas within the necrotic collection through computed tomography imaging or the examination of collected samples, which yielded positive results in Gram staining or culture. Laboratory biomarkers compared between sterile necrotizing pancreatitis and INP were used as the index test, and our outcome measures included sensitivity, specificity, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC). Within the first 72 hours (h) after admission, the AUC of C-reactive protein (CRP) was 0.69 (confidence interval (CI): 0.62-0.76), for procalcitonin (PCT), it was 0.69 (CI: 0.60-0.78), and for white blood cell count, it was 0.61 (CI: 0.47-0.75). After the first 72 h, the pooled AUC of CRP showed an elevated level of 0.88 (CI: 0.75-1.00), and for PCT, it was 0.86 (CI: 0.60-1.11). The predictive value of CRP and PCT for infection is poor within 72 h after hospital admission but seems good after the first 72 h. Based on these results, infection is likely in case of persistently high CRP and PCT, and antibiotic initiation may be recommended.

Prognostic potential of inflammatory markers, oxidative status, thrombocyte indices, and renal biochemical markers in neonatal calf diarrhoea-induced systemic inflammatory response syndrome

The study aimed to assess the prognostic value of inflammatory markers, indicators of oxidative stress, thrombocyte indices, and renal biochemical markers in neonatal calf diarrhoea (NCD) induced by systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) upon admission. A prospective, observational, and case-control study was conducted on 56 calves diagnosed with NCD. Mean concentrations of interleukin-6 (IL-6), malondialdehyde (MDA), glutathione (GSH), mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet distribution width (PDW), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and creatinine (Crea) were measured. Furthermore, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were also calculated for SIRS survivors [SIRS (survivor)] and non-survivors [SIRS (non-survivor)] induced by NCD. A prognostic cut-off value for predicting the prognosis of the SIRS's induced by NCD was obtained via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Upon admission, the SIRS (non-survivor) calves had significantly higher (P < .001) average levels of IL-6, MDA, BUN, Crea, MPV, and PDW compared to the SIRS (survivor) calves and significantly lower (P < .001) average levels of GSH. Despite an apparent increase in the NLR and PLR values of calves diagnosed with SIRS, no significant difference was found between the survival and non-survivor SIRS cases. Positive predictive values (PPVs) for survival were determined as 100 %, 100 %, 80 %, 100 %, 80 %, and 80 %, respectively, using cut-off values of IL-6 (≤259.67 ng/L), MDA (≤2.87 nmol/mL), MPV (≤12.5 fL), PDW (≤34.25 %), BUN (≤168.3 mg/dL), and Crea (≤2.11 mg/dL). The determined threshold values are those obtained upon admission to the hospital. Based on the sensitivity, specificity, and PPVs derived from the ROC analysis, it has been concluded that IL-6, MDA, MPV, PDW, BUN, and Crea are the most relevant biomarkers used for predicting the prognosis of NCD-induced SIRS in calves. Furthermore, it is also noteworthy that IL-6 exhibited the highest effectiveness among all biomarkers.

C-Reactive Protein: Pathophysiology, Diagnosis, False Test Results and a Novel Diagnostic Algorithm for Clinicians

The current literature provides a body of evidence on C-Reactive Protein (CRP) and its potential role in inflammation. However, most pieces of evidence are sparse and controversial. This critical state-of-the-art monography provides all the crucial data on the potential biochemical properties of the protein, along with further evidence on its potential pathobiology, both for its pentameric and monomeric forms, including information for its ligands as well as the possible function of autoantibodies against the protein. Furthermore, the current evidence on its potential utility as a biomarker of various diseases is presented, of all cardiovascular, respiratory, hepatobiliary, gastrointestinal, pancreatic, renal, gynecological, andrological, dental, oral, otorhinolaryngological, ophthalmological, dermatological, musculoskeletal, neurological, mental, splenic, thyroid conditions, as well as infections, autoimmune-supposed conditions and neoplasms, including other possible factors that have been linked with elevated concentrations of that protein. Moreover, data on molecular diagnostics on CRP are discussed, and possible etiologies of false test results are highlighted. Additionally, this review evaluates all current pieces of evidence on CRP and systemic inflammation, and highlights future goals. Finally, a novel diagnostic algorithm to carefully assess the CRP level for a precise diagnosis of a medical condition is illustrated.

Ascites Volume Quantification via Abdominal CT: A Novel Approach to Predict Severity in Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis, a sudden inflammation of the pancreas, can result in severe complications. The presence and volume of ascites, an abnormal accumulation of fluid in the abdomen, has been linked to disease severity. Our study investigates ascites volume, quantified via abdominal CT scans, as a potential predictive tool for disease severity. MATERIAL AND METHODS In this retrospective analysis, patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were evaluated. Patients were categorized into groups with and without ascites, with comparisons made regarding clinical characteristics. We further compared the mean ascitic volume against various outcome parameters in patients with ascites. Ascites volume and other predictive systems were assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for different predictive systems being analyzed. RESULTS The ascites group had higher severity scores and related serological indexes (P<0.05 for all). Among patients with ascites, a significant correlation was observed between ascites volume and outcome parameters (P<0.05 for all). The area under the ROC curve for predicting severe acute pancreatitis was 0.896, with 93% sensitivity and 79% specificity. Ascites volume yielded the highest diagnostic odds ratio (53.1; 95% confidence interval: 13.2,199.6). CONCLUSIONS Early-stage acute pancreatitis patients with ascites are indicative of severe illness and poor prognosis. An increase in ascites volume correlates with adverse clinical outcomes, thus highlighting the significance of ascites volume as a prognostic marker. This underscores the importance of abdominal CT in measuring ascites volume to predict disease severity.