Secular Trends in the Epidemiologic Patterns of Thyroid Cancer in China Over Three Decades: An Updated Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data

Temporal trends of thyroid cancer in China and globally from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of Disease Study 2021

The incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) is increasing annually worldwide, with a growing burden. This study aims to analyze temporal trends in the burden of TC by age and sex in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, and to predict future trends. We obtained data on TC in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Using the Joinpoint regression model, we calculated and analyzed the trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). Specifically, we estimated the annual percent change (APC), the average annual percent change (AAPC), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each metric. Additionally, we conducted a decomposition analysis to investigate the impact of aging, population growth, and epidemiological factors on the incidence and mortality rates of TC. Furthermore, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the burden of TC from 2022 to 2036.  From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR for TC in China increased from 1.249 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.009-1.473) per 100,000 to 2.473 (95% UI: 1.993-3.088) per 100,000. Conversely, the ASMR decreased from 0.473 (95% UI: 0.403-0.550) per 100,000 to 0.387 (95% UI: 0.307-0.472) per 100,000. Both males and females demonstrated an upward trajectory in ASIR. However, while the ASMR for females decreased, that for males showed an overall increase despite a decline in the last decade. The age of peak onset for TC ranged from 30 to 79 years, whereas the age of peak mortality was between 50 and 89 years. The analysis using the AAPC indicates that the growth in the ASIR (AAPC = 2.242, 95% CI: 2.112-2.371) and ASPR (AAPC = 2.975, 95% CI: 2.833-3.117) in China exceeds the global rate. Furthermore, the reduction in ASMR (AAPC = -0.651, 95% CI: -0.824 - -0.479) and ASDR (AAPC = -0.590, 95% CI: -0.787 - -0.392) in China is also more pronounced than globally. Decomposition analysis indicates that the increasing TC burden in China is primarily driven by population aging, whereas globally, population growth plays a more significant role. Projections based on predictive models suggest that from 2021 to 2036, the ASIR for both China and the global population is expected to continue rising, while the ASMR is anticipated to decline further.  The incidence rates of TC in China and globally have shown a continuous upward trend, which is expected to persist over the next 15 years. Additionally, although the number of male TC cases is relatively lower compared to females, the overall ASMR and ASDR for males have shown an upward trend, despite a slight decline in recent years. This highlights the need to enhance prevention, diagnosis, and treatment measures, and to develop differentiated screening and treatment strategies based on age and sex.

Analysis of the ideal cutoff age as a predictor of differentiated thyroid cancer using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database

Background

It has been discovered that the prognosis of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) correlates with age at initial diagnosis. However, there are disagreements over the optimal cutoff age among the numerous staging and risk stratification criteria, which make it inconsistent to predict the clinical prognosis of specific DTC patients. This study aimed to determine the optimum cutoff age for diagnosis in relation to the clinical outcomes of DTC using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database.

Methods

The best age cutoff value was determined by the X-tile software. The link between clinical characteristics and cancer-specific survival (CSS) was examined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. An additional application of the independent prognostic criteria, such as age stratifications, was applied to construct a nomogram model for predicting the chances of patient survival.

Results

The most accurate diagnosis cutoff age for DTC patients was suggested to be 67 years old. The multivariate analysis, using factors determined by univariate analysis, showed that age [>67 years, hazard rate (HR) =5.049, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.509-5.653, P<0.001], sex (female, HR =0.651, 95% CI: 0.584-0.727, P<0.001), tumor size (>20 and ≤40 mm, HR =2.296, 95% CI: 1.983-2.658, P<0.001; >40 mm, HR =4.976, 95% CI: 4.304-5.752, P<0.001), lymphadenectomy (HR =1.337, 95% CI: 1.186-1.506, P<0.001), distant metastasis (HR =12.166, 95% CI: 10.749-13.769, P<0.001) and surgical treatment (HR =0.173, 95% CI: 0.144-0.210, P<0.001) were independent factors for CSS. Patients in the high-risk group had worse survival rates, and the C-index for the CSS prediction model with age (cutoff of 67) and other independent clinicopathological variables was 0.906.

Conclusions

Accordingly, the optimal cutoff age for predicting death from DTC specifically is 67 years old at the time of the initial diagnosis. It might be a more suitable factor when used in risk stratification for patients with DTC.

Thyroid cancer trends in China and its comparative analysis with G20 countries: Projections for 2020-2040

Background

Thyroid cancer, a leading type of endocrine cancer, accounts for 3-4% of all cancer diagnoses. This study aims to analyse and compare thyroid cancer patterns in China and the Group twenty (G20) countries, and predict these trend for the upcoming two decades.

Methods

This observational longitudinal study utilised data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We used metrics including incidence, mortality, mortality-incidence ratio (MIR), age-standardised rate (ASR) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to examine thyroid cancer trends. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods manifesting notable changes. The association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and AAPC were investigated. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict thyroid cancer trends from 2020 to 2040.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, thyroid cancer incidence cases in China increased by 289.6%, with a higher AAPC of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) in men. Contrastingly, the G20 demonstrated a smaller increase, particularly among women over 50. Despite the overall age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was higher in the G20, the increase in mortality was less pronounced than in China. Age-standardised incidence rate increased across all age groups and genders, with a notable rise among men aged 15-49. ASMR decreased in specific age groups and genders, especially among women. Conversely, the ASMR significantly increased in group aged over 70. The MIR exhibited a declining trend, but this decrease was less noticeable in men and the group aged over 70. Joinpoint analysis pinpointed significant shifts in overall ASIR and ASMR, with the most pronounced increase in ASIR during 2003-2011 in China and 2003-2010 in the G20. Predictions suggested a continual ASIR uptrend, especially in the 50-69 age group, coupled with a predicted ASMR downturn among the elderly by 2040. Moreover, the proportion of thyroid cancer deaths attributable to high body mass index (BMI) escalated, with significant increase in Saudi Arabia and a rise to 7.4% in China in 2019.

Conclusions

Thyroid cancer cases in incidence and mortality are escalating in both China and the G20. The increasing trend may be attributed to factors beyond overdiagnosis, including environmental and genetic factors. These findings emphasise the necessity for augmenting prevention, control, and treatment strategies. They also highlight the significance of international collaboration in addressing the global challenge posed by thyroid cancer.

Trends in injury-related mortality among residents of Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021: an age-period-cohort analysis

Objective

We investigated the temporal trends and examined age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects of injury-related deaths among residents in Jiangsu to provide evidence for future injury prevention.

Methods

This study included 406,936 injury deaths from the Jiangsu provincial population death registration system. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) was analyzed using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models were generated to explore the effects of age, period, and birth cohort effects on mortality risk.

Results

ASMRs for all injuries (AAPC = -2.3%), road traffic accidents (AAPC = -5.3%), suicide (AAPC = -3.8%), and drowning (AAPC = -3.9%) showed a downward trend during 2012-2021(all p < 0.05), while unintentional falls showed an upward trend (AAPC = 5.1%, p < 0.05). From 2012 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for four primary types of injuries consistently exhibited higher among males compared to females, with rural regions displaying higher ASMRs than urban areas. Trends in ASMRs for road traffic accidents, drowning, and unintentional falls by sex and urban/rural areas were consistent with overall trends. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were identified in the trends of injury-related deaths for both sexes in Jiangsu. The age effect showed that the highest age effect for injury-related deaths was for the ages of 85 years and above, except for suicide, which was for the ages 80-84 years. Between 2012 and 2021, the period effect on road traffic accidents declined, while that on accidental falls increased. Initially, the period effect on suicide decreased but then rose, peaking in 2012 with a Relative Risk (RR) of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04-1.19). Similarly, the period effect on drowning initially declined before rising, with the highest effect observed in 2013, at an RR of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.07-1.19). The highest cohort effects for road traffic accidents were observed in the 1957-1961 group, for accidental falls in the 1952-1956 group, and for both drowning and suicide in the 1927-1931 group.

Conclusion

The mortality rate of unintentional falls has been increasing. Older adults are at high risk for the four leading injuries. The improvements in mortality rates can be attributed to advancements in education, urbanization, and the promulgation and implementation of laws and policies.

Global spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma from 1990 to 2019: A Joinpoint regression analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019, and projections until 2044

Lymphoma is a dissimilar collection of malignant neoplasms arising from the clonal propagation of lymphocytes. It is conventionally classified into two categories: Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal patterns in the incidence of lymphoma worldwide over the past few decades and forecast the future trends from 2020 to 2044. Data on HL and NHL were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In an effort to estimate the incidence rate trend, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was exploited. What's more, to project the disease burden by 2044, the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed. In 2019, higher incidence rates were observed in males and the elderly for both subtypes. Over the last three decades, a significant decline in the age-standardized incidence rate of HL was observed, while NHL has shown an increasing trend. By 2044, the age-standardized incidence rate of HL is anticipated to decrease in males and increase in females, while that of NHL is expected to rise. This study presents a new assessment of the spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma. Significant emphasis should be placed on the effective management and long-term monitoring of patients to mitigate the potential future impact of the disease.

Impact of fellowship training for specialists on thyroidectomy outcomes of patients with thyroid cancer

We aimed to evaluate the impact of fellowship training (FT) for thyroid specialists on the outcomes of patients with thyroid cancer. We reviewed surgeries performed for thyroid cancer before (non-FT group) and after (FT group) fellowship training and compared several variables, including length of stay of patients, tumor diameter, surgical method, lymph node dissection, parathyroid implantation, surgical duration, intraoperative blood loss, and postoperative complications. Compared with the non-FT group, the FT group had a shorter hospital stay, more adequate fine needle aspiration biopsy of the thyroid, less intraoperative blood loss, higher rate of parathyroid implantation, higher lymph node dissection rate, and lower nerve injury and hypoparathyroidism rates. When the surgical duration was < 200 min and/or only central lymph node dissection was performed, the FT group had a lower incidence of postoperative complications than the non-FT group. When, the incidence of postoperative complications, including postoperative nerve injury and hypoparathyroidism. In conclusion, FT for thyroid specialists is beneficial for patients with thyroid cancer and may allow a shorter hospital stay and reduced incidence of postoperative complication. Accordingly, FT may facilitate a more appropriate surgical approach with a preoperative pathological diagnosis.

Secular trends of morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in five Asian countries from 1990 to 2019 and their predictions to 2035

BACKGROUND

The rising burden of thyroid cancer (TC) is a public health problem in Asia. Predicting the future burden of TC in Asian countries is essential for disease prevention.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 for five Asian countries. We applied Bayesian age-period-cohort models to predict morbidity and mortality to 2035 and calculated age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Furthermore, the estimated annual percentage change was calculated to evaluate the variation of ASIR and ASMR.

RESULTS

By 2035, predictions suggest that cases of TC will reach 75.56 × 103 in China, 70.22 × 103 in India, 15.78 × 103 in the Republic of Korea, 9.01 × 103 in Japan and 5.55 × 103 in Thailand, respectively. Except Japan, a significant upward trend of ASIR of TC will be observed in five Asian countries. The deaths from TC will increase in five countries and India will become the highest reaching 14.07 × 103 . The ASMR will rise to 0.83/100 000 in India and 1.06/100 000 in the Republic of Korea, while it will drop to 0.35/100 000 in China, 0.43/100 000 in Japan and 0.50/100 000 in Thailand. In further predictions projected by sex, the growth rate of ASIR is reported higher in males than in females among most countries. ASMR of male will exceed that of females in China and Thailand by 2035.

CONCLUSION

The disease burden caused by TC will further increase in five Asian countries, especially for men. It is necessary to develop more rational and timely disease prevention and manage strategies facing this disease trend.

Clinicopathological profile and management of thyroid carcinoma: a Sub-Saharan country experience

BACKGROUND

In Sudan, there is limited knowledge on the epidemiology, clinical characteristics and pathological patterns of thyroid cancer. To address this shortcoming, we studied the clinical, pathological and treatment patterns of thyroid cancer at the National Cancer Institute ‒ University of Gezira (NCI-UG), Sudan.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective health facility-based study of patients with thyroid cancer who were treated at NCI-UG from January 2009 to December 2017.

RESULTS

A total of 139 patients with thyroid cancer were identified during the study period. Tumors were more common among women (69%). Goiter was the main presenting symptom (85%). The most common type of thyroid cancer was follicular carcinoma (41%), followed by papillary carcinoma (24%), then anaplastic carcinoma (20%). The mean age of the women was 56.3 years (SD ± 14.7), compared to 52.5 years (SD ± 16.6) for the men. The frequencies of stage I, II, III, and IV were 17%, 22%, 16%, and 45%, respectively. Different types of thyroidectomies were performed in 79% of the cases, lobectomy in 4%, and no surgery in 17%. Only 28% of the cases received radioactive iodine. Palliative chemotherapy and radiotherapy were prescribed to 17% and 37% of the cases, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Thyroid cancer is more prevalent among women and most patients present at later stages. The dominance of follicular type suggests that the majority of this population is iodine-deficient.

Global thyroid cancer incidence trend and age-period-cohort model analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019

Background

In view of the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) and the spread of overdiagnosis around the world, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of TC, and the analysis of the role of different factors in the incidence trend can provide scientific basis and data support for the national health departments to formulate reasonable prevention and treatment policies.

Methods

The study collated the global burden disease study data of TC incidence from 1990 to 2019, and used APC model to analyze the contribution of age, period and birth cohort to the incidence trend of TC.

Results

There was an obvious unfavorable upward trend in terms of age and cohort effect all over the world. Since 2007, the growth rate of risk slowed down and the risk in female even decreased since 2012, which mainly contributed to the developed countries. In all SDI countries, 2002 is the dividing point of risk between male and female. In 2019, The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of TC in the 5 SDI countries all showed a significant upward trend, with the largest upward trend in the middle SDI countries.

Conclusion

The trend of rapid increase in the incidence of TC has begun to slow down, but the global incidence of TC has obvious gender and regional/national heterogeneity. Policy makers should tailor specific local strategies to the risk factors of each country to further reduce the burden of TC.

Diagnostic Value of AngioPLUS Microvascular Imaging in Thyroid Nodule Diagnosis Using Quantitative and Qualitative Vascularity Grading

This study investigated the diagnostic value of the Angio Planewave Ultrasensitive (AngioPLUS) Doppler ultrasound in improving the efficacy of grey scale ultrasound in thyroid nodule diagnosis. The EU TIRADS was used for the grey scale ultrasound assessment of 94 thyroid nodules. conventional Doppler and AngioPLUS Doppler ultrasound images were evaluated using qualitative vascularity grading, where predominant central vascularity indicated malignancy-suspicion, and quantitative regional vascularity assessment, where predominant peripheral vascularity using a ratio vascularity index (RVI) of > 1 indicated benign disease. Diagnostic performance outcomes of sole and combination approaches were calculated based on final pathologic results. Using sole EU TIRADS and AngioPLUS + power Doppler imaging (APDI) based on qualitative vascularity and RVI, the results were a sensitivity of 83.3% vs. 83.3 vs. 66.7% and a specificity of 50% vs. 81.3% vs. 73.4, respectively. EU TIRADS combined with APDI significantly improved the specificity using both qualitative vascularity and RVI assessment approaches (84.4% and 81%, respectively, p < 0.05); and slightly reduced the sensitivity (76.7% and 58.1%). For cytologically-equivocal thyroid nodules, the combination approach using qualitative vascularity assessment outperformed the EU TIRADS (sensitivity: both were 88.9%; specificity: 77.4% vs. 38.7%, p < 0.05; and AUROC: 0.83 vs. 0.62, p < 0.05). APDI combined with EU TIRADS is diagnostically efficient in stratifying thyroid nodules, particularly cytologically-equivocal nodules.

Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: Current Position in Epidemiology, Genomics, and Classification

Papillary thyroid carcinoma is the most common type of thyroid malignancy both in adults and pediatric population. Since the 1980s, there are changes in criteria in labelling thyroid lesions as "papillary thyroid carcinomas." Radiation exposure is a well-established risk factor for papillary thyroid carcinoma. Other environmental risk factors include dietary iodine, obesity, hormones, and environmental pollutants. Papillary thyroid carcinomas could occur in familial settings, and 5% of these familial cases have well-studied driver germline mutations. In sporadic papillary thyroid carcinoma, BRAF mutation is common and is associated with clinicopathologic and prognostic markers. The mutation could aid in the clinical diagnosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma. Globally, thyroid cancer is among the top ten commonest cancer in females. In both adult and pediatric populations, there are variations of prevalence of thyroid cancer and rising incidence rates of thyroid cancer worldwide. The increase of thyroid cancer incidence was almost entirely due to the increase of papillary thyroid carcinoma. The reasons behind the increase are complex, multifactorial, and incompletely understood. The most obvious reasons are increased use of diagnostic entities, change in classification of thyroid neoplasms, as well as factors such as obesity, environmental risk factors, and radiation. The prognosis of the patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma is generally good after treatment. Nevertheless, cancer recurrence and comorbidity of second primary cancer may occur, and it is important to have awareness of the clinical, pathological, and molecular parameters of papillary thyroid carcinoma.