Constraining the Capacity of Global Croplands to CO2 Drawdown via Mineral Weathering

Terrestrial enhanced weathering of alkaline silicate minerals is a promising climate change mitigation strategy with the potential to limit the global temperature rise. The formation and accumulation of pedogenic carbonate and bicarbonate in soils/subsoils and groundwater offers a large sink for C storage; the amount of soil inorganic carbon (SIC) presently held within soils has been estimated to be 720-950 Gt of C. These values can be augmented by the addition of a variety of calcium and magnesium silicates via enhanced weathering. While the concept of the application of finely milled silicate rocks for faster weathering rates is well established, there has been limited discussion on the role of local climate, natural SIC content (i.e., the SIC innately present in the soil), and soil pH (among other important agronomic factors) on silicate weathering when applied to croplands, especially in view that the aim is to establish terrestrial enhanced weathering as a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy on a global scale. In this work, we emphasized the importance of soil pH and soil temperature on silicate weathering and looked to estimate an upper limit of (i.e., constrain) the global capacity until the year 2100 for enhanced rock weathering (ERW) to draw down CO2 in the form of accumulated pedogenic carbonate or soluble bicarbonate. We assessed the global spatial distribution of cropland soil pH, which serves as a proxy for local innate SIC; annual rate of pluvial (rainfall) precipitation; and soil temperature, and found that the potential CO2 drawdown difference between faster and slower weathering silicates is narrower in Asia, Africa, and South America, while the gap is larger for Europe, North America, and Oceania.

The role of soil temperature in mediterranean vineyards in a climate change context

The wine sector faces important challenges related to sustainability issues and the impact of climate change. More frequent extreme climate conditions (high temperatures coupled with severe drought periods) have become a matter of concern for the wine sector of typically dry and warm regions, such as the Mediterranean European countries. Soil is a natural resource crucial to sustaining the equilibrium of ecosystems, economic growth and people's prosperity worldwide. In viticulture, soils have a great influence on crop performance (growth, yield and berry composition) and wine quality, as the soil is a central component of the terroir. Soil temperature (ST) affects multiple physical, chemical and biological processes occurring in the soil as well as in plants growing on it. Moreover, the impact of ST is stronger in row crops such as grapevine, since it favors soil exposition to radiation and favors evapotranspiration. The role of ST on crop performance remains poorly described, especially under more extreme climatic conditions. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of ST in vineyards (vine plants, weeds, microbiota) can help to better manage and predict vineyards' performance, plant-soil relations and soil microbiome under more extreme climate conditions. In addition, soil and plant thermal data can be integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) to support vineyard management. In this paper, the role of ST in Mediterranean vineyards is reviewed namely in terms of its effect on vines' ecophysiological and agronomical performance and its relation with soil properties and soil management strategies. The potential use of imaging approaches, e.g. thermography, is discussed as an alternative or complementary tool to assess ST and vertical canopy temperature profiles/gradients in vineyards. Soil management strategies to mitigate the negative impact of climate change, optimize ST variation and crop thermal microclimate (leaf and berry) are proposed and discussed, with emphasis on Mediterranean systems.

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database (n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Soil moisture-atmosphere feedback dominates land N2 O nitrification emissions and denitrification reduction

Soil moisture (SM) is essential to microbial nitrogen (N)-cycling networks in terrestrial ecosystems. Studies have found that SM-atmosphere feedbacks dominate the changes in land carbon fluxes. However, the influence of SM-atmosphere feedbacks on the N fluxes changes, and the underlying mechanisms remain highly unsure, leading to uncertainties in climate projections. To fill this gap, we used in situ observation coupled with gridded and remote sensing data to analyze N₂ O fluxes emissions globally. Here, we investigated the synergistic effects of temperature, hydroclimate on global N₂ O fluxes, as the result of SM-atmosphere feedback impact on N fluxes. We found that SM-temperature feedback dominates land N₂ O emissions by controlling the balance between nitrifier and denitrifier genes. The mechanism is that atmospheric water demand increases with temperature and thereby reduces SM, which increases the dominant N₂ O production nitrifier (containing amoA AOB gene) and decreases the N₂ O consumption denitrifier (containing the nosZ gene), consequently will potential increasing N₂ O emissions. However, we find that the spatial variations of soil-water availability as a result of the nonlinear response of SM to vapor pressure deficit caused by temperature are some of the greatest challenges in predicting future N₂ O emissions. Our data-driven assessment deepens the understanding of the impact of SM-atmosphere interactions on the soil N cycle, which remains uncertain in earth system models. We suggest that the model needs to account for feedback between SM and atmospheric temperature when estimating the response of the N₂ O emissions to climatic change globally, as well as when conducting field-scale investigations of the response of the ecosystem to warming.

Targeting Sagebrush (Artemisia Spp.) Restoration Following Wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus Urophasianus) Nest Selection and Survival Models

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Impact of Climate Change on Soil Water Content in Southern Saskatchewan, Canada

The main objective of this research was to understand the effects of climate change on soil water content (SWC) across the Qu’Appelle River basin in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and output from 11 high-resolution (0.22°) regional climate models (RCM) were used over three 30-year periods: the near future (2021–2050) and distant future (2051–2080) and the historical reference (1975–2005). The RCM data are from the CORDEX North American domain, which employs the RCP8.5 high-emission scenario. SWC was modeled at the hydrological response units (HRU) level and at daily and monthly (warm season only) intervals for 2015–2020. The model was calibrated and validated using SUFI-2 in SWAT-CUP based on observations for streamflow and SWC, including measured data and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 for surface (up to 5 cm deep) soil moisture. Values of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NS) ranged from 0.616 and 0.784 and the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.8 for calibration and 0.82 for validation. Likewise, the correlation coefficients between ground measurements and SWAT were 0.698 and 0.633, respectively. Future climate forcing of the calibrated SWAT model revealed that warmer and drier growing seasons will prevail in the region. Similarly, the ensemble of all RCMs indicated that the mean temperature will increase by 2.1 °C and 3.4 °C for the middle and late periods, respectively, along with a precipitation increase of 10% and 11.2%. SWC is expected to decrease with an increase in potential evapotranspiration, despite an increase in precipitation. Likewise, the annual SWC is expected to decrease by 3.6% and 4% in the middle and late periods, respectively. The monthly SWC changes showed the highest decreases (5.4%) in April in the late period. The spatial pattern of SWC for 11 RCMs was similar such that the northwest and west of the river basin are wetter than the south and east. SWC projections suggest that southern Saskatchewan could experience significant SWC deficiencies in the summer by the end of this century.

Long-term manipulation of mean climatic conditions alters drought effects on C- and N-cycling in an arable soil

Climate is changing and predicted future scenarios include both changes in long-term mean climatic conditions and intensification of extreme events such as drought. Drought can have a major impact on soil functional processes; soil microorganisms, key to these processes, depend on water and temperature dynamics. Consequently, feedback mechanisms regarding microbially mediated carbon and nitrogen cycling in soils may be affected. There are indications that microbial exposure to increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions influences their stress responses. Here, the long-term field experiment Hohenheim Climate Change (HoCC) provided a research platform to explore how microbial exposure to long-term reduced water availability and soil warming modifies microbially driven soil processes, especially gas fluxes from soil, both during drought and after rewetting. The HoCC experiment is an agroecosystem in which the soil microbiome has been exposed to reduced annual mean precipitation and elevated temperature since 2008. Treatment levels were chosen based on a realistic future climate scenario. In June 2019, we exposed this system to a drought period of four weeks. We found that even after 11 years, warming remained a driver of CO₂ and N₂ O fluxes across the different soil moisture conditions in our drought experiment. Importantly, however, microbial exposure to long-term reduced water availability limited the stimulatory effect of warming on gas fluxes during drought and after rewetting. Our results were neither related to a legacy effect within overall microbial biomass carbon levels nor a shift towards enhanced fungal abundance. We found no indications that extracellular enzyme activities or microbial substrate availability explained the gas flux dynamics observed in our drought experiment. Our study indicates that soil warming promotes gaseous C and N loss even under extreme drought conditions. We suspect, however, that a shift in microbial function following long-term water limitation can hamper the enhancing effect of warming on soil gas fluxes.

Bacterial Alginate-Based Hydrogel Reduces Hydro-Mechanical Soil-Related Problems in Agriculture Facing Climate Change

Agricultural systems are facing the negative impacts of erosion and water scarcity, directly impacting the hydro-mechanical behavior of soil aggregation. Several technologies have been proposed to reduce hydro-mechanical soil-related problems in agriculture. Biopolymer-based hydrogels have been reported to be a great tool to tackle these problems in soils. In this study, we investigated the hydro-mechanical behavior of different soils media treated with Ca-bacterial alginate hydrogel. We used an unconfined uniaxial compression test, aggregate stability test and hydraulic conductivity measurements to investigate the mechanical and hydraulic behavior of treated soils media. Our results from unconfined uniaxial compression test showed that yield stress (i.e., strength) increased in treated soils with higher kaolinite and water content (i.e., HCM3), compared with untreated coarse quartz sand (i.e., CM1). Furthermore, we found that temperature is an important factor in the gelation capacity of our hydrogel. At room temperature, HCM3 displayed the higher aggregate stability, almost 5.5-fold compared with treated coarse quartz sand (HCM1), while this differential response was not sustained at warm temperature. In general, the addition of different quantities of kaolinite decreased the saturated hydraulic conductivity for all treatments. Finally, bright field microscopy imaging represents the soil media matrix between sand and clay particles with Ca-bacterial alginate hydrogel that modify the hydro-mechanical behavior of different soils media. The results of this study could be helpful for the soil-related problems in agriculture facing the negative effects of climate change.

Seed bank bias: Differential tracking of functional traits in the seed bank and vegetation across a gradient

A goal in trait-based ecology is to understand and predict plant community responses to environmental change; however, diversity stored within seed banks that may expand or limit these responses is typically overlooked. If seed banks store attributes that are more advantageous or vulnerable under future conditions, they could impact community adaptability to change and disturbance. We explored compositional differences between seed banks and vegetation (i.e. seed bank bias) across a twelve-site gradient of increasingly higher and older soil terraces, asking: How do seed banks contribute to taxonomic and functional composition, and what do shifts in seed bank biases along the gradient (i.e. tracking) reveal about the processes driving seed bank variation and its implications for community adaptability? Across the gradient, seed banks stored distinct pools of species that added to species richness but not functional dispersion. Seed banks were generally biased towards short-life histories and 'fast' species with small seeds, thinner and more acquisitive roots, and lower root biomass allocation; however, trait means in the seed bank and vegetation sometimes shifted along the gradient, amplifying or reversing these biases. For example, species with higher specific leaf area (tied to rapid resource acquisition) tended to dominate vegetation on lower soil terraces but were more common in the seed bank on higher terraces - at least when patterns were weighted by species' relative abundances. Although seed banks were generally characterized by 'fast' attributes, observed shifts in seed bank biases across the gradient - particularly in leaf traits - demonstrate that environment can impact stored diversity, and consequently, our expectations for future vegetative turnover. The seed bank bias patterns that we characterized could be the result of many potential processes, including environment- or trait-driven variation in seed bank inputs (seed production, dispersal) or losses (seed desiccation, germination), and may have important implications for a system's adaptive capacity. Only by integrating seed banks into the functional ecology agenda will we be able to unpack these processes and use seed banks more effectively in both prediction and ecosystem management.

Gender-specific determinants of Zai technology use intensity for improved soil water management in the drylands of Upper Eastern Kenya

Degraded landscapes and soil water stress are long-standing problems to smallholder agriculture in the drylands. Despite the important roles of zai technology in restoring degraded landscapes and improving agricultural productivity, the technology is yet to be adopted to its fullest extent. This can be attributed to gender-linked disparities in agricultural technology utilization. The study, therefore, sought to determine gender-specific determinants of zai technology choice and use-intensity. A multistage sampling technique was employed in randomly selecting 133 female-headed households and 267 male-headed households in Tharaka South sub-county. Quantitative data were collected in a cross-sectional survey using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Using sex-disaggregated data, Chi-square and t-test statistic were employed to test the statistical significance of dummy and mean value of continuous variables, respectively. Gender specific determinants of zai technology choice and use-intensity were determined using the Heckman-two-step econometric model. The results revealed that, more women farmers (44%) were using zai technology as compared to men (38%). Among women farmers, total cultivated land, access to animal-drawn farm implements, and group membership had an influence on zai technology choice. For men, total cultivated land, group membership and access to extension services positively influenced choice of zai technology. With regard to zai technology use-intensity, total land cultivated, livestock densities, group membership and frequency of trainings on soil and water management were important determinants among women farmers. For men, zai technology use-intensity was determined by total cultivated land and farmers’ perceptions on soil erosion. We recommend that, gender-sensitive farm-level policies oriented towards farmer socioeconomic profiles are important deliberations towards choice and intense application of soil and water conservation strategies such as the zai technology.

Toward a Universal Theoretical Framework to Understand Robustness and Resilience: From Cells to Systems

Research across a range of biological subdisciplines and scales, ranging from molecular to ecosystemic, provides ample evidence that living systems generally exhibit both a degree of resistance to disruption and an ability to recover following disturbance. Not only do mechanisms of robustness and resilience exist across and between systems, but those mechanisms exhibit ubiquitous and scalable commonalities in pattern and function. Mechanisms such as redundancy, plasticity, interconnectivity, and coordination of subunits appear to be crucial internal players in the determination of stability. Similarly, factors external to the system such as the amplitude, frequency, and predictability of disruptors, or the prevalence of key limiting resources, may constrain pathways of response. In the face of a rapidly changing environment, there is a pressing need to develop a common framework for describing, assessing, and predicting robustness and resilience within and across living systems.

Post-Fire Vegetation Response in a Repeatedly Burned Low-Elevation Sagebrush Steppe Protected Area Provides Insights About Resilience and Invasion Resistance

Sagebrush steppe ecosystems are threatened by human land-use legacies, biological invasions, and altered fire and climate dynamics. Steppe protected areas are therefore of heightened conservation importance but are few and vulnerable to the same impacts broadly affecting sagebrush steppe. To address this problem, sagebrush steppe conservation science is increasingly emphasizing a focus on resilience to fire and resistance to non-native annual grass invasion as a decision framework. It is well-established that the positive feedback loop between fire and annual grass invasion is the driving process of most contemporary steppe degradation. We use a newly developed ordinal zero-augmented beta regression model fit to large-sample vegetation monitoring data from John Day Fossil Beds National Monument, USA, spanning 7 years to evaluate fire responses of two native perennial foundation bunchgrasses and two non-native invasive annual grasses in a repeatedly burned, historically grazed, and inherently low-resilient protected area. We structured our model hierarchically to support inferences about variation among ecological site types and over time after also accounting for growing-season water deficit, fine-scale topographic variation, and burn severity. We use a state-and-transition conceptual diagram and abundances of plants listed in ecological site reference conditions to formalize our hypothesis of fire-accelerated transition to ecologically novel annual grassland. Notably, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and other woody species were entirely removed by fire. The two perennial grasses, bluebunch wheatgrass (Pseudoroegneria spicata) and Thurber's needlegrass (Achnatherum thurberianum) exhibited fire resiliency, with no apparent trend after fire. The two annual grasses, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), increased in response to burn severity, most notably medusahead. Surprisingly, we found no variation in grass cover among ecological sites, suggesting fire-driven homogenization as shrubs were removed and annual grasses became dominant. We found contrasting responses among all four grass species along gradients of topography and water deficit, informative to protected-area conservation strategies. The fine-grained influence of topography was particularly important to variation in cover among species and provides a foothold for conservation in low-resilient, aridic steppe. Broadly, our study demonstrates how to operationalize resilience and resistance concepts for protected areas by integrating empirical data with conceptual and statistical models.

Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperature and aridity because they are tightly controlled by moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models, defined here as when >90% of models agree in the direction of change. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of drylands in the United States and Canada. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long-term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas, notably the Upper Gila Mountains and South-Central Semi-arid Prairies, and decreases in the north, particularly portions of the Temperate and West-Central Semi-arid Prairies. However, we also found that exposure to hot-dry stress is increasing faster than mean annual temperature over most of these drylands, and those increases are greatest in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal drought are most apparent during the cool season; when soil water availability is projected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. The implications of these robust drought trajectories for ecosystems will vary geographically, and these results provide useful insights about the impact of climate change on these dryland ecosystems. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessments of climate impacts in drylands and provide a more rigorous foundation for making long-term strategic resource management decisions.