Population Bottlenecks and Intra-host Evolution During Human-to-Human Transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Multi-Organ Spread and Intra-Host Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 Support Viral Persistence, Adaptation, and a Mechanism That Increases Evolvability

Intra-host diversity is an intricate phenomenon related to immune evasion, antiviral resistance, and evolutionary leaps along transmission chains. SARS-CoV-2 intra-host variation has been well-evidenced from respiratory samples. However, data on systemic dissemination and diversification are relatively scarce and come from immunologically impaired patients. Here, the presence and variability of SARS-CoV-2 were assessed among 71 tissue samples obtained from multiple organs including lung, intestine, heart, kidney, and liver from 15 autopsies with positive swabs and no records of immunocompromise. The virus was detected in most organs in the majority of autopsies. All organs presented intra-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) with low, moderate, and high abundances. The iSNV abundances observed within different organs indicate that the virus can mutate at one host site and subsequently spread to other parts of the body. In agreement with previous data from respiratory samples, our lung samples presented no more than 10 iSNVs each. But interestingly, when analyzing different organs we were able to detect between 11 and 45 iSNVs per case. Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 can replicate, and evolve in a compartmentalized manner, in different body sites, which agrees with the "viral reservoir" theory. We elaborate on how compartmentalized evolution in multiple organs may contribute to SARS-CoV-2 evolving so rapidly despite the virus having a proofreading mechanism.

Genomic epidemiology reveals the variation and transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2 in a single-source community outbreak

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which is still a global public health concern. During March 2022, a rapid and confined single-source outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 was identified in a community in Nanjing municipal city. Overall, 95 individuals had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The whole genomes of 61 viral samples were obtained, which were all members of the BA.2.2 lineage and clearly demonstrated the presence of one large clade, and all the infections could be traced back to the original index case. The most distant sequence from the index case presented a difference of 4 SNPs, and 118 intrahost single-nucleotide variants (iSNVs) at 74 genomic sites were identified. Some minor iSNVs can be transmitted and subsequently rapidly fixed in the viral population. The minor iSNVs transmission resulted in at least two nucleotide substitutions among all seven SNPs identified in the outbreak, generating genetically diverse populations. We estimated the overall transmission bottleneck size to be 3 using 11 convincing donor-recipient transmission pairs. Our study provides new insights into genomic epidemiology and viral transmission, revealing how iSNVs become fixed in local clusters, followed by viral transmission across the community, which contributes to population diversity.

Transmission Bottleneck Size Estimation from De Novo Viral Genetic Variation

Sequencing of viral infections has become increasingly common over the last decade. Deep sequencing data in particular have proven useful in characterizing the roles that genetic drift and natural selection play in shaping within-host viral populations. They have also been used to estimate transmission bottleneck sizes from identified donor-recipient pairs. These bottleneck sizes quantify the number of viral particles that establish genetic lineages in the recipient host and are important to estimate due to their impact on viral evolution. Current approaches for estimating bottleneck sizes exclusively consider the subset of viral sites that are observed as polymorphic in the donor individual. However, these approaches have the potential to substantially underestimate true transmission bottleneck sizes. Here, we present a new statistical approach for instead estimating bottleneck sizes using patterns of viral genetic variation that arise de novo within a recipient individual. Specifically, our approach makes use of the number of clonal viral variants observed in a transmission pair, defined as the number of viral sites that are monomorphic in both the donor and the recipient but carry different alleles. We first test our approach on a simulated dataset and then apply it to both influenza A virus sequence data and SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from identified transmission pairs. Our results confirm the existence of extremely tight transmission bottlenecks for these 2 respiratory viruses.

Intra- vs. Interhost Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Driven by Uncorrelated Selection-The Evolution Thwarted

In viral evolution, a new mutation has to proliferate within the host (Stage I) in order to be transmitted and then compete in the host population (Stage II). We now analyze the intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) in a set of 79 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients with most transmissions tracked. Here, every mutation has two measures: 1) iSNV frequency within each individual host in Stage I; 2) occurrence among individuals ranging from 1 (private), 2-78 (public), to 79 (global) occurrences in Stage II. In Stage I, a small fraction of nonsynonymous iSNVs are sufficiently advantageous to rise to a high frequency, often 100%. However, such iSNVs usually fail to become public mutations. Thus, the selective forces in the two stages of evolution are uncorrelated and, possibly, antagonistic. For that reason, successful mutants, including many variants of concern, have to avoid being eliminated in Stage I when they first emerge. As a result, they may not have the transmission advantage to outcompete the dominant strains and, hence, are rare in the host population. Few of them could manage to slowly accumulate advantageous mutations to compete in Stage II. When they do, they would appear suddenly as in each of the six successive waves of SARS-CoV-2 strains. In conclusion, Stage I evolution, the gate-keeper, may contravene the long-term viral evolution and should be heeded in viral studies.

Optimized quantification of intra-host viral diversity in SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus sequence data

High error rates of viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerases lead to diverse intra-host viral populations during infection. Errors made during replication that are not strongly deleterious to the virus can lead to the generation of minority variants. However, accurate detection of minority variants in viral sequence data is complicated by errors introduced during sample preparation and data analysis. We used synthetic RNA controls and simulated data to test seven variant-calling tools across a range of allele frequencies and simulated coverages. We show that choice of variant caller and use of replicate sequencing have the most significant impact on single-nucleotide variant (SNV) discovery and demonstrate how both allele frequency and coverage thresholds impact both false discovery and false-negative rates. When replicates are not available, using a combination of multiple callers with more stringent cutoffs is recommended. We use these parameters to find minority variants in sequencing data from SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens and provide guidance for studies of intra-host viral diversity using either single replicate data or data from technical replicates. Our study provides a framework for rigorous assessment of technical factors that impact SNV identification in viral samples and establishes heuristics that will inform and improve future studies of intra-host variation, viral diversity, and viral evolution. IMPORTANCE When viruses replicate inside a host cell, the virus replication machinery makes mistakes. Over time, these mistakes create mutations that result in a diverse population of viruses inside the host. Mutations that are neither lethal to the virus nor strongly beneficial can lead to minority variants that are minor members of the virus population. However, preparing samples for sequencing can also introduce errors that resemble minority variants, resulting in the inclusion of false-positive data if not filtered correctly. In this study, we aimed to determine the best methods for identification and quantification of these minority variants by testing the performance of seven commonly used variant-calling tools. We used simulated and synthetic data to test their performance against a true set of variants and then used these studies to inform variant identification in data from SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens. Together, analyses of our data provide extensive guidance for future studies of viral diversity and evolution.

SARS-CoV-2 entry into and evolution within a skilled nursing facility

SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the family Coronaviridae which includes multiple human pathogens that have an outsized impact on aging populations. As a novel human pathogen, SARS-CoV-2 is undergoing continuous adaptation to this new host species and there is evidence of this throughout the scientific and public literature. However, most investigations of SARS-CoV-2 evolution have focused on large-scale collections of data across diverse populations and/or living environments. Here we investigate SARS-CoV-2 evolution in epidemiologically linked individuals within a single outbreak at a skilled nursing facility beginning with initial introduction of the pathogen. The data demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced to the facility multiple times without establishing an interfacility transmission chain, followed by a single introduction that infected many individuals within a week. This large-scale introduction by a single genotype then persisted in the facility. SARS-CoV-2 sequences were investigated at both the consensus and intra-host variation levels. Understanding the variability in SARS-CoV-2 during transmission chains will assist in understanding the spread of this disease and can ultimately inform best practices for mitigation strategies.

Immunosuppression as a Hub for SARS-CoV-2 Mutational Drift

The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is largely determined by host factors, with a wide range of outcomes. Despite an extensive vaccination campaign and high rates of infection worldwide, the pandemic persists, adapting to overcome antiviral immunity acquired through prior exposure. The source of many such major adaptations is variants of concern (VOCs), novel SARS-CoV-2 variants produced by extraordinary evolutionary leaps whose origins remain mostly unknown. In this study, we tested the influence of factors on the evolutionary course of SARS-CoV-2. Electronic health records of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were paired to viral whole-genome sequences to assess the effects of host clinical parameters and immunity on the intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2. We found slight, albeit significant, differences in SARS-CoV-2 intra-host diversity, which depended on host parameters such as vaccination status and smoking. Only one viral genome had significant alterations as a result of host parameters; it was found in an immunocompromised, chronically infected woman in her 70s. We highlight the unusual viral genome obtained from this woman, which had an accelerated mutational rate and an excess of rare mutations, including near-complete truncating of the accessory protein ORF3a. Our findings suggest that the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 during acute infection is limited and mostly unaffected by host characteristics. Significant viral evolution is seemingly exclusive to a small subset of COVID-19 cases, which typically prolong infections in immunocompromised patients. In these rare cases, SARS-CoV-2 genomes accumulate many impactful and potentially adaptive mutations; however, the transmissibility of such viruses remains unclear.

Rapid transmission and tight bottlenecks constrain the evolution of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants

Transmission bottlenecks limit the spread of novel mutations and reduce the efficiency of selection along a transmission chain. While increased force of infection, receptor binding, or immune evasion may influence bottleneck size, the relationship between transmissibility and the transmission bottleneck is unclear. Here we compare the transmission bottleneck of non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 lineages to those of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. We sequenced viruses from 168 individuals in 65 households. Most virus populations had 0-1 single nucleotide variants (iSNV). From 64 transmission pairs with detectable iSNV, we identify a per clade bottleneck of 1 (95% CI 1-1) for Alpha, Delta, and Omicron and 2 (95% CI 2-2) for non-VOC. These tight bottlenecks reflect the low diversity at the time of transmission, which may be more pronounced in rapidly transmissible variants. Tight bottlenecks will limit the development of highly mutated VOC in transmission chains, adding to the evidence that selection over prolonged infections may drive their evolution.

Susceptibility of domestic and companion animals to SARS-CoV-2: a comprehensive review

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large global outbreak. The reports of domestic animals' infection with SARS-CoV-2 raise concerns about the virus's longer-lasting spread, the establishment of a new host reservoir, or even the evolution of a new virus, as seen with COVID-19. In this review, we focus on the susceptibility of domestic animals, especially companion animals, towards SARS-CoV-2 in light of existing studies of natural infection, experimental infection, and serological surveys. Susceptibility of domestic and companion animals to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

SARS-CoV-2 shedding dynamics and transmission in immunosuppressed patients

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern have been emerging. However, knowledge of temporal and spatial dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is limited. This study characterized SARS-CoV-2 evolution in immunosuppressed patients with long-term SARS-CoV-2 shedding for 73–250 days, without specific treatment. We conducted whole-genome sequencing of 27 serial samples, including 26 serial samples collected from various anatomic sites of two patients and the first positive sample from patient 2‘s mother. We analysed the intrahost temporal dynamics and genomic diversity of the viral population within different sample types. Intrahost variants emerging during infection showed diversity between individual hosts. Remarkably, N501Y, P681R, and E484K, key substitutions within spike protein, emerged in vivo during infection and became the dominant population. P681R, which had not yet been detected in the publicly available genome in Korea, appeared within patient 1 during infection. Mutually exclusive substitutions at residues R346 (R346S and R346I) and E484 (E484K and E484A) of spike protein and continuous turnover of these substitutions occurred. Unique genetic changes were observed in urine samples. A household transmission from patient 2 to his mother, at least 38 days after the diagnosis, was characterized. Viruses may differently mutate and adjust to the host selective pressure, which could enable the virus to replicate efficiently for fitness in each host. Intrahost variants could be candidate variants likely to spread to the population eventually. Our findings may provide new insights into the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in response to interactions between the virus and host.

When might host heterogeneity drive the evolution of asymptomatic, pandemic coronaviruses?

Controlling many infectious diseases, including SARS-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), requires surveillance followed by isolation, contact-tracing and quarantining. These interventions often begin by identifying symptomatic individuals. However, actively removing pathogen strains causing symptomatic infections may inadvertently select for strains less likely to cause symptomatic infections. Moreover, a pathogen's fitness landscape is structured around a heterogeneous host pool; uneven surveillance efforts and distinct transmission risks across host classes can meaningfully alter selection pressures. Here, we explore this interplay between evolution caused by disease control efforts and the evolutionary consequences of host heterogeneity. Using an evolutionary epidemiology model parameterized for coronaviruses, we show that intense symptoms-driven disease control selects for asymptomatic strains, particularly when these efforts are applied unevenly across host groups. Under these conditions, increasing quarantine efforts have diverging effects. If isolation alone cannot eradicate, intensive quarantine efforts combined with uneven detections of asymptomatic infections (e.g., via neglect of some host classes) can favor the evolution of asymptomatic strains. We further show how, when intervention intensity depends on the prevalence of symptomatic infections, higher removal efforts (and isolating symptomatic cases in particular) more readily select for asymptomatic strains than when these efforts do not depend on prevalence. The selection pressures on pathogens caused by isolation and quarantining likely lie between the extremes of no intervention and thoroughly successful eradication. Thus, analyzing how different public health responses can select for asymptomatic pathogen strains is critical for identifying disease suppression efforts that can effectively manage emerging infectious diseases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07548-7.

Narrow transmission bottlenecks and limited within-host viral diversity during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on a fishing boat

The long-term evolution of viruses is ultimately due to viral mutants that arise within infected individuals and transmit to other individuals. Here, we use deep sequencing to investigate the transmission of viral genetic variation among individuals during a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak that infected the vast majority of crew members on a fishing boat. We deep-sequenced nasal swabs to characterize the within-host viral population of infected crew members, using experimental duplicates and strict computational filters to ensure accurate variant calling. We find that within-host viral diversity is low in infected crew members. The mutations that did fix in some crew members during the outbreak are not observed at detectable frequencies in any of the sampled crew members in which they are not fixed, suggesting that viral evolution involves occasional fixation of low-frequency mutations during transmission rather than persistent maintenance of within-host viral diversity. Overall, our results show that strong transmission bottlenecks dominate viral evolution even during a superspreading event with a very high attack rate.

Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a medium-sized city with traditional communities during the early COVID-19 epidemic in China

The nationwide COVID-19 epidemic ended in 2020, a few months after its outbreak in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019. Most COVID-19 cases occurred in Hubei Province, with a few local outbreaks in other provinces of China. A few studies have reported the early SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in several large cities or provinces of China. However, information regarding the early epidemics in small and medium-sized cities, where there are still traditionally large families and community culture is more strongly maintained and thus, transmission profiles may differ, is limited. In this study, we characterized 60 newly sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Anyang as a representative of small and medium-sized Chinese cities, compared them with more than 400 reference genomes from the early outbreak, and studied the SARS-CoV-2 transmission profiles. Genomic epidemiology revealed multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions in Anyang and a large-scale expansion of the epidemic because of the large family size. Moreover, our study revealed two transmission patterns in a single outbreak, which were attributed to different social activities. We observed the complete dynamic process of single-nucleotide polymorphism development during community transmission and found that intrahost variant analysis was an effective approach to studying cluster infections. In summary, our study provided new SARS-CoV-2 transmission profiles representative of small and medium-sized Chinese cities as well as information on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 strains during the early COVID-19 epidemic in China.

Narrow transmission bottlenecks and limited within-host viral diversity during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on a fishing boat.. [PMID: 35169803 PMCID: PMC8845427 DOI: 10.1101/2022.02.09.479546]

The long-term evolution of viruses is ultimately due to viral mutants that arise within infected individuals and transmit to other individuals. Here we use deep sequencing to investigate the transmission of viral genetic variation among individuals during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak that infected the vast majority of crew members on a fishing boat. We deep-sequenced nasal swabs to characterize the within-host viral population of infected crew members, using experimental duplicates and strict computational filters to ensure accurate variant calling. We find that within-host viral diversity is low in infected crew members. The mutations that did fix in some crew members during the outbreak are not observed at detectable frequencies in any of the sampled crew members in which they are not fixed, suggesting viral evolution involves occasional fixation of low-frequency mutations during transmission rather than persistent maintenance of within-host viral diversity. Overall, our results show that strong transmission bottlenecks dominate viral evolution even during a superspreading event with a very high attack rate.

From SARS-CoV-2 infection to COVID-19 morbidity: an in silico projection of virion flow rates to the lower airway via nasopharyngeal fluid boluses

Background: While the nasopharynx is initially the dominant upper airway infection site for SARS-CoV-2, the physiologic mechanism launching the infection at the lower airway is still not well-understood. Based on the rapidity of infection progression to the lungs, it has been hypothesized that the nasopharynx may be acting as the primary seeding zone for subsequent contamination of the lower airway via aspiration of virus-laden boluses of nasopharyngeal fluids. Methodology: To examine the plausibility of the aspiration-driven mechanism, we have computationally tracked the inhalation process in three anatomic airway reconstructions and have quantified the nasopharyngeal liquid volume transmitted to the lower airspace during each aspiration. Results: Extending the numerical trends on aspiration volume to earlier records on aspiration frequencies indicates a total aspirated nasopharyngeal liquid volume of 0.3 – 0.76 ml/day. Subsequently, for mean sputum viral load, our modeling projects that the number of virions reaching the lower airway will range over 2.1×106 – 5.3×106 /day; for peak viral load, the corresponding number hovers between 7.1×108 – 1.8×109. Conclusions: The virion transmission findings fill in a key piece of the mechanistic puzzle on the systemic progression of SARS-CoV-2, and subjectively point to health conditions like dysphagia, with proclivity to increased aspiration, as some of the potential underlying risk factors for aggressive lung infections.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of intra-host variability in SARS-CoV-2 genomes

During the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has been useful in tracking its spread and in identifying variants of concern (VOC). Viral and host factors could contribute to variability within a host that can be captured in next-generation sequencing reads as intra-host single nucleotide variations (iSNVs). Analysing 1347 samples collected till June 2020, we recorded 16 410 iSNV sites throughout the SARS-CoV-2 genome. We found ∼42% of the iSNV sites to be reported as SNVs by 30 September 2020 in consensus sequences submitted to GISAID, which increased to ∼80% by 30th June 2021. Following this, analysis of another set of 1774 samples sequenced in India between November 2020 and May 2021 revealed that majority of the Delta (B.1.617.2) and Kappa (B.1.617.1) lineage-defining variations appeared as iSNVs before getting fixed in the population. Besides, mutations in RdRp as well as RNA-editing by APOBEC and ADAR deaminases seem to contribute to the differential prevalence of iSNVs in hosts. We also observe hyper-variability at functionally critical residues in Spike protein that could alter the antigenicity and may contribute to immune escape. Thus, tracking and functional annotation of iSNVs in ongoing genome surveillance programs could be important for early identification of potential variants of concern and actionable interventions.

Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure

The rapid emergence and expansion of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants threatens our ability to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. These novel SARS-CoV-2 variants often harbor multiple point mutations, conferring one or more evolutionarily advantageous traits, such as increased transmissibility, immune evasion and longer infection duration. In a number of cases, variant emergence has been linked to long-term infections in individuals who were either immunocompromised or treated with convalescent plasma. In this paper, we used a stochastic evolutionary modeling framework to explore the emergence of fitter variants of SARS-CoV-2 during long-term infections. We found that increased viral load and infection duration favor emergence of such variants. While the overall probability of emergence and subsequent transmission from any given infection is low, on a population level these events occur fairly frequently. Targeting these low-probability stochastic events that lead to the establishment of novel advantageous viral variants might allow us to slow the rate at which they emerge in the patient population, and prevent them from spreading deterministically due to natural selection. Our work thus suggests practical ways to achieve control of long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections, which will be critical for slowing the rate of viral evolution.

Children's Privilege in COVID-19: The Protective Role of the Juvenile Lung Morphometry and Ventilatory Pattern on Airborne SARS-CoV-2 Transmission to Respiratory Epithelial Barriers and Disease Severity

The incidence of severe COVID-19 in children is low, and underlying mechanisms for lower SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and self-limiting disease severity are poorly understood. Severe clinical manifestations in adults require SARS-CoV-2 inoculation in the lower respiratory tract, establishing a pulmonary disease phase. This may be either accomplished by direct inoculation of the thoracic region upon exposure to virion-laden aerosols, or by infection of the upper respiratory system and aspiration of virion-laden aerosols originating right there into the lower respiratory tract. The particularities of epithelial barriers as the anatomical site of first viral deposition specifically determine the initial characteristics of an innate immune response, emerging respiratory tissue damage and dysfunctionality, and hence, severity of clinical symptoms. We, thus, investigated by in silico modeling whether the combined effect of juvenile lung morphometry, children's ventilatory pattern and the peculiarities of the virion-laden aerosols' properties, render children more resilient to aerosol deposition in the lower respiratory tract. Our study presents evidence for major age-dependent differences of the regional virion-laden aerosol deposition. We identified deposition hotspots in the alveolar-interstitial region of the young adult. Our data reveal that children are void of corresponding hotspots. The inoculum quantum in the alveolar-interstitial region hotspots is found to be considerably related to age. Our results suggest that children are intrinsically protected against SARS-CoV-2 inoculation in the lower respiratory tract, which may help to explain the lower risk of severe clinical manifestations associated with a pulmonary phase.

Intra-host evolution during SARS-CoV-2 prolonged infection

Long-term infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) represents a challenge to virus dispersion and the control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The reason why some people have prolonged infection and how the virus persists for so long are still not fully understood. Recent studies suggested that the accumulation of intra-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) over the course of the infection might play an important role in persistence as well as emergence of mutations of concern. For this reason, we aimed to investigate the intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during prolonged infection. Thirty-three patients who remained reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive in the nasopharynx for on average 18 days from the symptoms onset were included in this study. Whole-genome sequences were obtained for each patient at two different time points. Phylogenetic, populational, and computational analyses of viral sequences were consistent with prolonged infection without evidence of coinfection in our cohort. We observed an elevated within-host genomic diversity at the second time point samples positively correlated with cycle threshold (Ct) values (lower viral load). Direct transmission was also confirmed in a small cluster of healthcare professionals that shared the same workplace by the presence of common iSNVs. A differential accumulation of missense variants between the time points was detected targeting crucial structural and non-structural proteins such as Spike and helicase. Interestingly, longitudinal acquisition of iSNVs in Spike protein coincided in many cases with SARS-CoV-2 reactive and predicted T cell epitopes. We observed a distinguishing pattern of mutations over the course of the infection mainly driven by increasing A→U and decreasing G→A signatures. G→A mutations may be associated with RNA-editing enzyme activities; therefore, the mutational profiles observed in our analysis were suggestive of innate immune mechanisms of the host cell defense. Therefore, we unveiled a dynamic and complex landscape of host and pathogen interaction during prolonged infection of SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that the host’s innate immunity shapes the increase of intra-host diversity. Our findings may also shed light on possible mechanisms underlying the emergence and spread of new variants resistant to the host immune response as recently observed in COVID-19 pandemic.

Acute SARS-CoV-2 infections harbor limited within-host diversity and transmit via tight transmission bottlenecks

The emergence of divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages has raised concern that novel variants eliciting immune escape or the ability to displace circulating lineages could emerge within individual hosts. Though growing evidence suggests that novel variants arise during prolonged infections, most infections are acute. Understanding how efficiently variants emerge and transmit among acutely-infected hosts is therefore critical for predicting the pace of long-term SARS-CoV-2 evolution. To characterize how within-host diversity is generated and propagated, we combine extensive laboratory and bioinformatic controls with metrics of within- and between-host diversity to 133 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from acutely-infected individuals. We find that within-host diversity is low and transmission bottlenecks are narrow, with very few viruses founding most infections. Within-host variants are rarely transmitted, even among individuals within the same household, and are rarely detected along phylogenetically linked infections in the broader community. These findings suggest that most variation generated within-host is lost during transmission.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified viral load as a critical factor in variant identification. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

Computational characterization of inhaled droplet transport to the nasopharynx

How human respiratory physiology and the transport phenomena associated with inhaled airflow in the upper airway proceed to impact transmission of SARS-CoV-2, leading to the initial infection, stays an open question. An answer can help determine the susceptibility of an individual on exposure to a COVID-2019 carrier and can also provide a preliminary projection of the still-unknown infectious dose for the disease. Computational fluid mechanics enabled tracking of respiratory transport in medical imaging-based anatomic domains shows that the regional deposition of virus-laden inhaled droplets at the initial nasopharyngeal infection site peaks for the droplet size range of approximately 2.5-19 [Formula: see text]. Through integrating the numerical findings on inhaled transmission with sputum assessment data from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and earlier measurements of ejecta size distribution generated during regular speech, this study further reveals that the number of virions that may go on to establish the SARS-CoV-2 infection in a subject could merely be in the order of hundreds.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in domestic cats imposes a narrow bottleneck

The evolutionary mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 viruses adapt to mammalian hosts and, potentially, undergo antigenic evolution depend on the ways genetic variation is generated and selected within and between individual hosts. Using domestic cats as a model, we show that SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences remain largely unchanged over time within hosts, while dynamic sub-consensus diversity reveals processes of genetic drift and weak purifying selection. We further identify a notable variant at amino acid position 655 in Spike (H655Y), which was previously shown to confer escape from human monoclonal antibodies. This variant arises rapidly and persists at intermediate frequencies in index cats. It also becomes fixed following transmission in two of three pairs. These dynamics suggest this site may be under positive selection in this system and illustrate how a variant can quickly arise and become fixed in parallel across multiple transmission pairs. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in cats involved a narrow bottleneck, with new infections founded by fewer than ten viruses. In RNA virus evolution, stochastic processes like narrow transmission bottlenecks and genetic drift typically act to constrain the overall pace of adaptive evolution. Our data suggest that here, positive selection in index cats followed by a narrow transmission bottleneck may have instead accelerated the fixation of S H655Y, a potentially beneficial SARS-CoV-2 variant. Overall, our study suggests species- and context-specific adaptations are likely to continue to emerge. This underscores the importance of continued genomic surveillance for new SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as heightened scrutiny for signatures of SARS-CoV-2 positive selection in humans and mammalian model systems.