Prognostic assessment of liver cirrhosis and its complications: current concepts and future perspectives

A nomogram model based on albumin-bilirubin score for predicting 90-day prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Objective

To develop a nomogram model based on the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score for predicting the 90-day prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and to evaluate its predictive efficacy.

Methods

Clinical data of 290 ACLF patients at the Third People's Hospital of Nantong City, collected from December 2020 to December 2023, were analyzed. The data were divided into a training set (n = 200) and a validation set (n = 90), with August 2022 as the cut-off date. Patients in the training set were categorized into an improvement group (n = 133) and a mortality group (n = 67) based on their 90-day outcomes. The predictive power of baseline parameters was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression to construct model. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results

Creatinine (CR) [odds ratio (OR) = 1.013, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.004-1.022], ALBI (OR = 10.831, 95% CI: 4.009-33.247), Gender (OR = 1.931, 95% CI: 0.973-3.870) and ascites (OR = 3.032, 95% CI: 1.249-8.178) were identified as independent prognostic factors. The prognostic model formula was derived as prognostic index (PI) = -0.591 + 0.658 × Gender + 1.109 × ascites + 0.012 × CR + 2.382 × ALBI. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.804 (95% CI: 0.741-0.866), with a specificity of 85.0% and a sensitivity of 65.7% at a cut-off of 0.425. The AUC of the validation set was 0.811 (95% CI: 0.697-0.926). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good model fit with a p-value of 0.287 for the training set and 0.423 for the validation set. Calibration curves demonstrated the accuracy of the model, and DCA results suggested that the model was clinically useful when the threshold was below 0.6.

Conclusion

The nomogram model incorporating ALBI with CR, Gender and ascites can predict the 90-day prognosis of ACLF patients, potentially helping to optimize treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes.

Prior metabolic and bariatric surgery is an independent determinant of severity of decompensation in alcohol-associated liver disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with a history of metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) are susceptible to developing alcohol use disorder, potentially resulting in end-stage liver disease, with a paucity of data on the evolution of cirrhosis.

AIMS

Our aim was to describe the demographics and mortality in hospitalizations over time in individuals diagnosed with cirrhosis due to alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) in relation to prior MBS.

METHODS

We included patients hospitalized at the Ghent University Hospital between 1/1/2010 and 01/09/2023 with cirrhosis due to ALD. Data were retrieved retrospectively from all hospitalizations.

RESULTS

46/275 (16.7%) of individuals with cirrhosis admitted with ALD had a history of MBS; they were predominantly female (76.1%), in contrast to the non-MBS population (29.7%) (p < 0.0001) and were significantly younger at the time of diagnosis (46 vs. 58 years, p < 0.0001). Liver disease evolved at a faster pace in the MBS group with a shorter time to first hospitalization (5 vs. 13 months, p = 0.036), and consecutive hospitalizations. The proportion with primary hospitalization due to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) was significantly larger in the MBS group (60.9% vs. 27.6%, p < 0.0001), and throughout the following hospitalizations, ACLF remained more prevalent in the MBS group. Modeled transplant-free survival was lower in the MBS group (p = 0.004), with ACLF as the main cause of death. The weekly amount of alcohol consumed during drinking periods and duration of use were significantly lower in the MBS group.

CONCLUSIONS

MBS patients hospitalized with ALD develop acute decompensation at a faster pace, with more overall ACLF hospitalizations, and higher cumulative mortality, despite being 12 years younger on average.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

The Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival accurately predicts mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

The recently developed Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival (FIPS) allows improved risk classification of patients with decompensated cirrhosis allocated to transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) implantation. This study investigated the prognostic value of the FIPS in patients hospitalized with acute decompensation of cirrhosis (AD), outside the setting of TIPS implantation.

METHODS

A total of 1133 patients with AD were included in a retrospective, multi-centre study. Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were recorded and the FIPS' performance in predicting mortality at these time points was analysed using ROC analyses.

RESULTS

Ninety-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 17.7%, 24.4% and 30.8%. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression models showed that the FIPS independently predicted 1-year mortality in the study cohort (HR 1.806, 95% CI 1.632-1.998, p < .0001). In ROC analyses, the FIPS offered consistently high performance in the prediction of mortality within 1 year after AD (area under the receiver operator characteristic [AUROC]: 1-year mortality .712 [.679-.746], 180-day mortality .740 [.705-.775] and 90-day mortality .761 [.721-.801]). In fact, in the subgroup of patients presenting with variceal bleeding, the FIPS even showed significantly improved discriminatory performance in the prediction of long-term mortality (AUROC 1-year mortality: .782 [.724-.839]) in comparison with established prognostic scores, such as the CLIF-C AD score (.724 [.660-.788], p = .0071) or MELD 3.0 (.726 [.662-.790], p = .0042).

CONCLUSIONS

The FIPS accurately predicts mortality in patients with AD and seems to offer superior prognostication of long-term mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.

Spleen stiffness measurements during recompensation in patients with acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis: preliminary findings of a pilot study

Background

Acute decompensation (AD) in patients with liver cirrhosis is associated with a dramatic deterioration in prognosis. Immediate initiation of appropriate recompensation measures is essential to improve patient's outcome, although objective parameters for evaluating the success of recompensation are still lacking. Spleen stiffness measurements (SSM) have emerged as promising non-invasive tool to assess clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), which is the main driver of acute decompensation. However, while SSM accurately predicts CSPH and its complication, currently no data are available on its diagnostic performance during recompensation. This pilot-study aimed at evaluating changes in spleen stiffness following the initiation of recompensation measures in cirrhotic patients hospitalized due to AD.

Methods

In this prospective pilot-study, 60 patients with cirrhosis showing AD were included. Liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and SSM were performed on admission and repetitive SSM on day 3 and 5, respectivele, during recompensation measures. A cohort of patients (n = 10) with compensated cirrhosis served as control.

Results

A total of 36 data sets from the originally enrolled 60 patients were eligible for final analysis. On admission, patients with AD revealed a significantly increased spleen stiffness compared to the control group (70.51 vs. 29.06 kPa, p < 0.0001). Following the initiation of recompensation measures SSM revealed a significant reduction in spleen stiffness compared to the baseline assessment on day 3 (-18.5 kPa, -21.53%; p = 0.0002) with no further decrease on day 5 (-17.63 kPa, -21.23%; p = 0.0326).

Conclusion

Repetitive SSM seems to be a useful non-invasive clinical marker to assess the effectiveness of recompensation measures in cirrhotic patients with AD.

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic Model for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Patients with Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Background and Aims

Early determination of prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is crucial for optimizing treatment options and liver allocation. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with ACLF and to develop new prognostic models that accurately predict patient outcomes.

Methods

We retrospectively selected 1,952 hospitalized patients diagnosed with ACLF between January 2010 and June 2018. This cohort was used to develop new prognostic scores, which were subsequently validated in external groups.

Results

The study included 1,386 ACLF patients and identified six independent predictors of 28-day mortality through multivariate analysis (all p < 0.05). The new score, based on a multivariate regression model, demonstrated superior predictive accuracy for both 28-day and 90-day mortalities, with Areas under the ROC curves of 0.863 and 0.853, respectively (all p < 0.05). This score can be used to stratify the risk of mortality among ACLF patients with ACLF, showing a significant difference in survival between patients categorized by the cut-off value (log-rank (Mantel-Cox) χ2 = 487.574 and 606.441, p = 0.000). Additionally, the new model exhibited good robustness in two external cohorts.

Conclusions

This study presents a refined prognostic model, the Model for end-stage liver disease-complication score, which accurately predicts short-term mortality in ACLF patients. This model offers a new perspective and tool for improved clinical decision-making and short-term prognostic assessment in ACLF patients.

Artificial intelligence-based evaluation of prognosis in cirrhosis

Cirrhosis represents a significant global health challenge, characterized by high morbidity and mortality rates that severely impact human health. Timely and precise prognostic assessments of liver cirrhosis are crucial for improving patient outcomes and reducing mortality rates as they enable physicians to identify high-risk patients and implement early interventions. This paper features a thorough literature review on the prognostic assessment of liver cirrhosis, aiming to summarize and delineate the present status and constraints associated with the application of traditional prognostic tools in clinical settings. Among these tools, the Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring systems are predominantly utilized. However, their accuracy varies significantly. These systems are generally suitable for broad assessments but lack condition-specific applicability and fail to capture the risks associated with dynamic changes in patient conditions. Future research in this field is poised for deep exploration into the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with routine clinical and multi-omics data in patients with cirrhosis. The goal is to transition from static, unimodal assessment models to dynamic, multimodal frameworks. Such advancements will not only improve the precision of prognostic tools but also facilitate personalized medicine approaches, potentially revolutionizing clinical outcomes.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Prognosis and Assessment of 60 Cases of Decompensated Cirrhotic Patients with Portal Hypertension

Objective

To investigate the risk factors for the development of portal hypertension in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and analyze their prognosis.

Methods

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis who were admitted to our hospital and Qu fu People's Hospital from June 2022 to June 2023 were included in this study. Among them, there were 45 male and 15 female patients, with a median age of 56 (range: 35-77) years. A comparative analysis was performed between Group A (hepatic venous pressure gradient, HVPG <16 mmHg) and Group B (HVPG ≥16 mmHg) patients, along with various clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis was conducted to explore the risk factors influencing the occurrence of portal hypertension and adverse prognosis in patients with cirrhosis.

Results

In Group A patients with portal hypertension, we observed lower levels of aspartate aminotransferase, laminin, serum hyaluronic acid, type III procollagen N-terminal peptide, total bile acids, and cholylglycine acid compared to Group B. On the other hand, levels of alanine aminotransferase, white blood cells, and serum albumin were higher in Group A than in Group B. These differences between the groups were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis of the aforementioned risk factors indicated that low white blood cell count, high cholylglycine acid levels, and high serum hyaluronic acid levels were identified as independent risk factors for the occurrence of difficult-to-control complications in decompensated portal hypertension among patients with liver cirrhosis (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

Liver cirrhosis patients with portal hypertension and multiple risk factors like low white blood cell count and high liver transaminase levels should be cautious regarding the progression of portal hypertension when combined with splenomegaly, liver fibrosis, and bile stasis, as it often indicates a poor prognosis.

Navigating Cirrhosis: A Comprehensive Review of Liver Scoring Systems for Diagnosis and Prognosis

This comprehensive review navigates the landscape of liver scoring systems for the diagnosis and prognosis of cirrhosis. Cirrhosis, a chronic and progressive liver disease, presents significant challenges in its diagnosis and management. The review begins by defining and providing an overview of cirrhosis, emphasizing its clinical implications. Highlighting the significance of liver scoring systems, including the Child-Pugh score, end-stage liver disease, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, the study explores their role in assessing liver dysfunction severity and predicting outcomes. A meticulous analysis identifies the strengths and limitations of these scoring systems, offering valuable insights for clinicians. The recommendations emphasize incorporating these tools into routine clinical practice for early intervention and personalized treatment plans. Interdisciplinary collaboration is underscored as crucial for a holistic approach to cirrhosis management. The conclusion calls for future research to refine existing scoring systems, explore emerging biomarkers and imaging techniques, and conduct prospective studies to enhance precision. By embracing these recommendations, the medical community can advance the understanding and management of cirrhosis, ultimately improving patient outcomes and revolutionizing liver disease approaches.

IFN-γ, IL-17, IL-22+ CD4+ subset in patients with hepatitis C virus and correlation with clinical factor

BACKGROUND

CD4+ T cell responses in HCV infection have a crucial role in the immunopathology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Our aim was to investigate the frequency of Th1, Th17, and Th22 cells in HCV-infected patients and elucidate their role in the progression of the disease.

METHODS

Twenty-six HCV-infected patients and 26 healthy individuals were recruited. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were stained to separate CD4, IFN-γ, IL-17, and IL-22 producing cells using flow cytometry.

RESULTS

Results showed that the mean expression of IL-22 in CD4+ T cells was significantly lower in HCV-infected patients compared to healthy controls. About correlation with clinical factor and T subsets, a negative correlation between the frequency of CD4+ IFN-γ+ cells and Thyroxine level (T4) was observed in the patients. The data showed a positive link between thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), cholesterol levels, and the frequency of Th17 cells. In addition, a positive correlation was seen between serum creatinine level with both Th1 and Th17. Ultimately, it was found that there was a positive link between viral burden and IL-17+ IL-22+ cells and a negative correlation between viral load and pure Th22.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that Th22 cells may play a part in the immunopathology of HCV and show the associations between Thelper subsets and the clinical signs of the disease.

Portal vein thrombosis in patients with liver cirrhosis

Background/Aim. Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) has a prevalence of 0.6?26%. It is most commonly discovered incidentally as part of the evaluation of LC or in the context of acute decompensation of LC due to portal hypertension. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of PVT in patients with LC in relation to the severity of the disease and individual elements of portal hypertension. Methods. A total of 326 patients treated for LC decompensation were included in a retrospective study. Standard laboratory analyses, abdominal ultrasonography and/or computed tomography, and esophagogastroduodenoscopy were performed. Results. The diameter of the portal vein (PV) differed between patients without esophageal varices (12.2 mm) and those with large varices (13.6 mm), p = 0.026. PVT was identified in 6.1% of patients with LC. The patients were classified according to the Child-Pugh scoring system, which has the A, B, and C categories used to assess the severity of liver disease. PVT was present in 3.0% of patients in class C and 12.0% in class B, while none of the patients in class A had PVT (p = 0.005). PVT was present in 4.4% of patients with small varices and 16.7% with large varices (p < 0.001). There was no difference in the presence of PVT between the groups of patients with and without variceal bleeding nor between groups with different degrees of ascites. A fatal outcome occurred in 29.4% of patients, but there was no difference between patients with and without PVT. Conclusion. PVT is present in more advanced stages of LC and predominantly in patients with large esophageal varices. There was no higher prevalence of PVT observed with the occurrence of variceal bleeding or with the death outcome in patients with LC.