Caught off guard and beaten: The Ukraine war and food security in the Middle East

Energy-water management system based on robust predictive control for open-field cultivation

Food availability has been endangered by recent global events, where agriculture, the main food source for the global population, is expected to increase even more to fulfill the growing food demand. Along with food production, water and energy consumption are also increased, leading to over-extraction of groundwater and an excess emission of greenhouse gases due to fossil fuel consumption. In this context, a balance of these three resources is crucial; therefore, the water-energy-food nexus is considered to address the previous issues by designing an energy-water management system based on robust predictive control. This controller estimates the future worst-case scenario for multiple climatic conditions, such as solar radiation, ambient temperature, wind speed, precipitation, and groundwater recharge, to define an optimal irrigation volume, maximize crop growth, and minimize water consumption. At the same time, the controller schedules daily irrigation and groundwater extraction, considering energy availability from solar generation and storage, to fulfill the previously defined irrigation volume while minimizing operating costs. Climate prediction is done through fuzzy prediction intervals, whose lower or upper bound are used as worst-case to include climate uncertainty on the controller design. The energy-water management system is tested in different experiments, where results show that considering a robust approach ensures maximum crop development, avoids over-extraction of groundwater, and prioritizes renewable energy sources. This work proposes a robust energy-water management system designed to be sustainable. Considering the water-energy-food nexus, the system ensures food security and proper resource allocation, tackling global starvation, water availability, and energy access.

Food security in Ukraine today's conditions

The system-forming element of national security is food security, which guarantees effective management of the food system, ensuring the food needs of the appropriate quantity and quality of each country's citizen. Despite the significant potential of the agricultural sector, which forms the basis of food security, the need to analyse the state of food security in the current situation is due to military operations on the territory of Ukraine, which led to its negative global results. In this regard, the need to develop effective strategies and legal regulation is essential to ensure national and global food security, which in turn requires coordination of efforts of all countries and international organisations through international cooperation. The study aims to establish a pattern regarding the current state of food security by analysing the impact of availability, access, usefulness and stability of food supply on food security. Research methods: comparative analysis; taxonomic analysis; systematisation, generalisation. The survey found that Ukraine's position in the Global Food Security Index (FSI) among 113 countries in 2022 worsened by 13 points, where the worst indicators for domestic food security are sustainability and adaptability (43.5 points out of 100 and 94th place globally) and economic affordability of food (48.1 points out of 100 and 93rd place in the world). It was found that the actual consumption of vegetables, melons, potatoes, and oil in 2021 was slightly higher than the rational norm, indicating sufficient consumption of these products, while the actual consumption of products that are lower than the rational norm includes meat and meat products, milk and dairy products, fish and fish products, and fruits, berries, and grapes. It has been determined that since 2016, the number of kilocalories in the daily diet of the population of Ukraine has not reached the minimum norm of consumption of basic foodstuffs for the working population. It has been established that in 2020 and 2021, the value of the taxonomic indicator for assessing the level of food security (I) has been decreasing, i.e. the distance to the reference vector has been increasing, which indicates a decrease in the level of food security. The forecasting results suggest a downward trend in the food security index for the period 2022-2027, and there is an urgent need to take measures to eliminate this trend and improve the value of the index, which is extremely important for the security of the state, especially in times of war.

Plant-parasitic nematode research in the arid desert landscape: a systematic review of challenges and bridging interventions

Plant-parasitic nematode research in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces significant challenges rooted in a need for proper assembly, diversity, and a unified and purpose-driven framework. This led to exacerbating their detrimental effects on crop production. This systematic review addresses the current situation and challenges that require targeted interventions to sustainably manage plant-parasitic nematodes and reduce their detrimental impact on agriculture production in the MENA region. We analyzed the nematode-related research conducted within the region over the past three decades to assess available resources and promote diverse research approaches beyond basic morphology-focused surveys. We show that crops are attacked by a diverse spectrum of plant-parasitic nematodes that exceed the global economic threshold limits. In particular, Meloidogyne species exceed the threshold limit by 8 - 14-fold, with a 100% frequency of occurrence in the collected soil samples, posing a catastrophic threat to crop production and the economy. We highlight detrimental agriculture practices in the MENA region, such as transferring soil from established fields to barren land, which enhances the dissemination of plant-parasitic nematodes, disrupting soil ecology and causing significant agricultural challenges in newly cultivated areas. Looking into the behavior of farmers, raising awareness must be accompanied by available solutions, as more practical alternatives are needed to gain the confidence of the farmers. We propose integrating microbial-based products and soil development practices in hygienic farming as resilient and sustainable solutions for nematode management. Increased emphasis is required to diversify the nematode-related research areas to bridge the gaps and facilitate the transition from fundamental knowledge to practical solutions. A cohesive network of nematologists and collaboration with national and international entities is crucial for exchanging knowledge related to legislation against invasive species.

Regional Agriculture and Food Systems Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of the Near East and North Africa Region

The COVID-19 pandemic affected agri-food systems worldwide. However, while the impacts differed from one country/region to another, the scholarly literature seems to focus on developed countries in the Global North. Consequently, this review scrutinizes the literature on the pandemic's impacts in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region. A search on the Web of Science in March 2023 generated 334 documents, of which 151 were eligible for inclusion in the systematic review. According to the bibliometric analysis, the most active nations are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon. In general, the coverage of studies is better in the Gulf region than in the less developed countries of North Africa and those suffering from wars (cf. Libya, Syria, and Yemen). Studies generally focus on crop production and the downstream food chain (cf. distribution and consumption). While the pandemic influenced every pillar of food security, this research concentrates on access and utilization. Meanwhile, the lion's share of the literature deals with the pandemic's socio-economic effects, especially those linked to food (in)security and health. The pandemic, which laid bare the agri-food system vulnerabilities, should be seized to foster the transition towards more resilient agri-food systems in the NENA region.

How the War in Ukraine Affects Food Security

The war in Ukraine has caused severe disruption to national and worldwide food supplies. Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, maize, and oilseeds, staples that are now suffering a war-triggered supply risk. This paper describes the background of the problem and illustrates current trends by outlining some of the measures that may be deployed to mitigate the conflict's impacts on achieving SDG 2 (Zero hunger), especially focusing on ending hunger, achieving food security, improving nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture. In order to understand the main research strands in the literature that are related to food security in the context of wars, the authors adopted a bibliometric literature review based on the co-occurrence of terms technique, conducted with 631 peer-reviewed documents extracted from the Scopus database. To complement the bibliometric assessment, ten case studies were selected to narrow down the food insecurity aspects caused by the war in Ukraine. The co-occurrence analysis indicated four different thematic clusters. In the next stage, an assessment of the current situation on how war affects food security was carried out for each one of the clusters, and the reasons and possible solutions to food security were identified. Policy recommendations and theoretical implications for food security in the conflict context in Ukraine were also addressed.

The potential consequences of grain-trade disruption on food security in the Middle East and North Africa region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen remarkable population growth over the last century, outpacing other global regions and resulting in an over-reliance on food imports. In consequence, it has become heavily dependent on grain imports, making it vulnerable to trade disruptions (e.g., due to the Russia-Ukraine War). Here, we quantify the importance of imported grains for dietary protein and energy, and determine the level of import reductions at which countries are threatened with severe hunger. Utilizing statistics provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), we employed a stepwise calculation process to quantify the allocation of both locally produced and imported grains between the food and feed sectors. These calculations also enabled us to establish a connection between feed demand and production levels. Our analysis reveals that, across the MENA region, 40% of total dietary energy (1,261 kcal/capita/day) and 63% of protein (55 g/capita/day) is derived from imported grains, and could thus be jeopardized by trade disruptions. This includes 164 kcal/capita/day of energy and 11 g/capita/day of protein imported from Russia and Ukraine. If imports from these countries ceased completely, the region would thus face a severe challenge to adequately feed its population. This study emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks and ensure a stable food and feed supply in the MENA region.

Countries' vulnerability to food supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war from a trade dependency perspective

Disruptions of key food and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine have exposed many countries to challenges accessing some commodities since these countries' war began. We evaluated the short-term, external, and direct impacts of disruptions of six food commodities and three types of fertilizer supplies from Russia and Ukraine on food access for all trading partners of the two countries by applying a set of trade and socioeconomic indicators. We found that the external food supplies of 279 countries and territories were affected to varying degrees; 24 countries-especially Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Mongolia-are extremely vulnerable because they depend almost entirely on a variety of food imports from Russia and Ukraine. Access to fertilizers was affected in 136 countries and territories, particularly Estonia (potassic fertilizer), Mongolia (nitrogenous fertilizers), Kazakhstan (mixed fertilizers), and Brazil, the United States, China, and India (all types of fertilizers). An integrated assessment of countries' import types, purchasing power parity per capita, and populations indicated that the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Pakistan are most vulnerable to such supply disruptions. Development of research into diversification and decentralization strategies for food access is needed to guide stable food supply policies.