A Revised Framework for the Investigation of Expectation Update Versus Maintenance in the Context of Expectation Violations: The ViolEx 2.0 Model

Uncertainty of treatment efficacy moderates placebo effects on reinforcement learning

The placebo-reward hypothesis postulates that positive effects of treatment expectations on health (i.e., placebo effects) and reward processing share common neural underpinnings. Moreover, experiments in humans and animals indicate that reward uncertainty increases striatal dopamine, which is presumably involved in placebo responses and reward learning. Therefore, treatment uncertainty analogously to reward uncertainty may affect updating from rewards after placebo treatment. Here, we address whether different degrees of uncertainty regarding the efficacy of a sham treatment affect reward sensitivity. In an online between-subjects experiment with N = 141 participants, we systematically varied the provided efficacy instructions before participants first received a sham treatment that consisted of listening to binaural beats and then performed a probabilistic reinforcement learning task. We fitted a Q-learning model including two different learning rates for positive (gain) and negative (loss) reward prediction errors and an inverse gain parameter to behavioral decision data in the reinforcement learning task. Our results yielded an inverted-U-relationship between provided treatment efficacy probability and learning rates for gain, such that higher levels of treatment uncertainty, rather than of expected net efficacy, affect presumably dopamine-related reward learning. These findings support the placebo-reward hypothesis and suggest harnessing uncertainty in placebo treatment for recovering reward learning capabilities.

A Review of Transdiagnostic Mechanisms in Cognitive Behavior Therapy

Cognitive behavior therapies (CBTs) are the gold standard treatment for many psychiatric conditions. However, relatively little is known about how CBTs work. By characterizing these mechanisms, researchers can ensure CBTs retain their potency across diagnoses and delivery contexts. We review 3 classes of putative mechanisms: CBT-specific skills (eg, cognitive restructuring, behavioral activation), transtheoretical mechanisms (eg, therapeutic alliance, treatment expectancies, self-efficacy beliefs), and psychopathological mechanisms (aversive reactivity, positive affect, attachment style). We point to future research within each class and emphasize the need for more intensive longitudinal designs to capture how each class of mechanisms interacts with the others to improve outcomes.

Preexposure to one social threat alters responses to another social threat: Behavioral and electrophysiological evidence

A recent Cyberball study has indicated that the experience of loss of control can affect how people process subsequent social exclusion. This "preexposure effect" supports the idea of a common cognitive system involved in the processing of different types of social threats. To test the validity of this assumption in the current study, we reversed the sequence of the preexposure setup. We measured the effects of social exclusion on the subsequent processing of loss of control utilizing event-related brain potentials (ERPs) and self-reports. In the control group (CG, n = 26), the transition to loss of control elicited significant increases in both the P3 amplitude and the self-reported negative mood. Replicating the results of the previous preexposure study, these effects were significantly reduced by the preexposure to an independent social threat (here: social exclusion). In contrast to previous findings, these effects were not modulated by the discontinuation (EG1disc, n = 25) or continuation (EG2cont, n = 24) of the preexposure threat. Given that the P3 effect is related to the violation of subjective expectations, these results support the notion that preexposure to a specific social threat has widespread effects on the individuals' expectancy of upcoming social participation and control.

The relationship between multiple traumatic events and the severity of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms – evidence for a cognitive link

Background: Previous research has shown that multiple traumatic experiences cumulatively increase the risk for the development of severe symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Yet, little is known about the specific psychological mechanism through which this increased risk comes about.Objective: In the present study, we examined a possible cognitive link between multiple traumatic events and PTSD symptom severity through dysfunctional cognitions and expectations.Methods: A sample of patients with a diagnosed PTSD (N = 70; M_Age= 42.06; 82% female) and high symptom burden (IES-R M = 79.24) was examined. On average, patients had experienced 5.31 different traumatic events. In a structural equation model, we tested the hypothesis that the relationship between multiple traumatic experiences and PTSD symptom severity is mediated through dysfunctional general cognitions and dysfunctional situation-specific expectations. General trauma-related cognitions were assessed with the Posttraumatic Cognition Inventory (PTCI) and trauma-related situational expectations were assessed with the Posttraumatic Expectations Scale (PTES).Results: The direct effect of the number of traumatic events on PTSD symptom severity was non-significant. Instead, as hypothesised, there was evidence for a significant indirect effect via dysfunctional general cognitions and situation-specific expectations.Conclusions: The current results further specify the cognitive model of PTSD by indicating that the relationship between the number of traumatic events and PTSD symptom severity is mediated through dysfunctional cognitions and expectations. These findings emphasise the importance of focused cognitive treatment approaches that seek to modify dysfunctional cognitions and expectations in people with multiple traumatic experiences.

Better than expected? Predictors of coping with expectation violations in the communication about death and dying

Background

End-of-life (EOL) communication is often avoided, especially among young adults. Negative expectations concerning EOL conversations with relatives or significant others are one major reason.

Objective

To investigate how best to violate negative expectations concerning EOL conversations by identifying predictors of coping with expectation violations in this context.

Methods

Vignettes describing expectation violations in the context of EOL communication were presented to a sample of 261 university students. In a first experiment, the credibility of the expectation-disconfirming information was manipulated. In a second experiment, the valence of the disconfirming evidence was manipulated. As outcome measures, the subjective likelihood of two different responses to the expectation violation was assessed: (1) ignoring the disconfirming evidence (immunization) and (2) changing expectations (accommodation).

Results

Overall, participants experiencing a worse-than-expected event showed more immunization [F(1, 257) = 12.15, p < 0.001, ηp = 0.05], while participants experiencing a better-than-expected event showed more accommodation [F(1, 257) = 30.98, p < 0.001, ηp = 0.11]. Participants with higher fear of death [F(1, 257) = 12.24, p < 0.001, ηp = 0.05] as well as higher death avoidance tendencies [F(1, 257) = 17.16, p < 0.001, ηp = 0.06] showed less accommodation in response to a better-than-expected event.

Conclusion

In general, young adults appear to update their expectations quickly in response to unexpectedly positive experiences in the context of EOL communication. However, individuals with higher fear of death and higher death avoidance tendencies appear to be at higher risk of maintaining negative expectations despite disconfirming evidence.

Factors influencing the update of beliefs regarding controversial political issues

Selectively integrating new information contributes to belief polarization and compromises public discourse. To better understand factors that underlie biased belief updating, I conducted three pre-registered studies covering different controversial political issues. The main hypothesis was that cognitively devaluing new information hinders belief updating. Support for this hypothesis was found in only one of the three issues. The only factor that consistently influenced belief updating across issues was the discrepancy between prior beliefs and new information. These results suggest that usually people do use evidence to correct their beliefs, but may refuse to do so if doubts about its generalizability arise.

Electrophysiological evidence for sensitization effects elicited by concurrent social threats

Experiencing a social threat, such as social exclusion, is a painful event. In contrast to previous studies providing insight into the processing of a single short-termed threat, we exposed healthy individuals to the simultaneous onset of different social threats. This approach allowed us to track whether these threats are processed independently-or whether they interact in a common system. Using a virtual ball-throwing game (Cyberball), electrophysiological (event-related brain potentials, ERPs) and behavioral (self-reports) responses were collected. We assigned undergraduates to three experimental groups: single threat exclusion (n = 24), single threat loss of control (n = 26), and joint onset of both threats (dual-threat, n = 25). Self-reports indicated an increase in threats (i.e., in perceived exclusion and loss-of-control) in the latter group. The ERPs disentangled the neural responses to each threat: In the dual-threat group, the amplitudes of the P3 responses to exclusionary and intervention events were enhanced. This indicates that individuals are sensitized to each of the threats when the other threat is present simultaneously. Our findings support the theoretical notion of a common cognitive system responding to violations in subjective expectations.

Biased belief updating in depression

Cognitive approaches to depression have benefitted from recent research on belief updating, examining how new information is used to alter beliefs. This review presents recent advances in understanding various sources of bias in belief updating in depression. Specifically, research has demonstrated that people with depression have difficulty revising negative beliefs in response to novel positive information, whereas belief updating in depression is not related to an enhanced integration of negative information. In terms of mechanisms underlying the deficient processing of positive information, research has shown that people with depression use defensive cognitive strategies to devalue novel positive information. Furthermore, the disregard of novel positive information can be amplified by the presence of state negative affect, and the resulting persistence of negative beliefs in turn perpetuates chronically low mood, contributing to a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop of beliefs and affect. Synthesising previous research, this review proposes a coherent framework of when belief change is likely to occur, and argues that future research also needs to elucidate why people with depression hesitate to abandon negative beliefs. Recent insights from belief updating have not only improved the understanding of the psychopathology of depression, but also have the potential to improve its cognitive-behavioural treatment.

The Role of Expectancy Violation in Extinction Learning: A Two-Day Online Fear Conditioning Study

Background

Exposure therapy is at the core of the treatment of pathological anxiety. While the inhibitory learning model proposes a framework for the mechanisms underlying exposure therapy, in particular expectancy violation, causal evidence for its assumptions remains elusive. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to provide evidence for the influence of expectancy violation on extinction retention by manipulating the magnitude of expectancy violation during extinction learning.

Method

In total, 101 individuals completed a web-based fear conditioning protocol, consisting of a fear acquisition and extinction phase, as well as a spontaneous recovery and fear reinstatement test 24h later. To experimentally manipulate expectancy violation, participants were presented only with states of the conditioned stimulus that either weakly or strongly predicted the aversive outcome. Consequently, the absence of any aversive outcomes in the extinction phase resulted in low or high expectancy violation, respectively.

Results

We found successful fear acquisition and manipulation of expectancy violation, which was associated with reduced threat ratings for the high compared to the low expectancy violation group directly after extinction learning. On Day 2, inhibitory CS-noUS associations could be retrieved for expectancy ratings, whereas there were no substantial group differences for threat ratings.

Conclusion

These findings indicate that the magnitude of expectancy violation is related to the retrieval of conscious threat expectancies, but it is unclear how these changes translate to affective components (i.e., threat ratings) of the fear response and to symptoms of pathological anxiety.

Expectation focused and frequency enhanced cognitive behavioural therapy for patients with major depression (EFFECT): a study protocol of a randomised active-control trial

INTRODUCTION

The effectiveness of psychotherapy in depression is subject of an ongoing debate. The mechanisms of change are still underexplored. Research tries to find influencing factors fostering the effect of psychotherapy. In that context, the dose-response relationship should receive more attention. Increasing the frequency from one to two sessions per week seems to be a promising start. Moreover, the concept of expectations and its influence in depression can be another auspicious approach. Dysfunctional expectations and the lack of their modification are central in symptom maintenance. Expectation focused psychological interventions (EFPI) have been investigated, primarily in the field of depression. The aim of this study is to compare cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) once a week with an intensified version of CBT (two times a week) in depression as well as to include a third proof-of-principle intervention group receiving a condensed expectation focused CBT.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Participants are recruited through an outpatient clinic in Germany. A current major depressive episode, diagnosed via structured clinical interviews should present as the main diagnosis. The planned randomised-controlled trial will allow comparisons between the following treatment conditions: CBT (one session/week), condensed CBT (two sessions/week) and EFPI (two sessions/week). All treatment arms include a total dose of 24 sessions. Depression severity applies as the outcome variable (Beck Depression Inventory II, Montgomery Asberg Depression Rating Scale). A sample size of n=150 is intended.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The local ethics committee of the Department of Psychology, Philipps-University Marburg approved the study (reference number 2020-68 v). The final research article including the study results is intended to be published in international peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

German Clinical Trials Registry (DRKS00023203).

Differential associations of positive and negative expectations with depressive symptoms

BACKGROUND

Recent research suggests that dysfunctional expectations are a particularly important subtype of cognitions in depression. However, it is unclear whether depressive symptoms are related to the presence of negative expectations, the absence of positive expectations, or both.

METHODS

Using hierarchical linear regression analyses, the present study examined the predictive value of positive situation-specific expectations, negative situation-specific expectations, dispositional optimism, and dysfunctional attitudes for depressive symptoms 8 weeks later in a nonclinical sample (N = 157). It also examined whether the relationship between dispositional optimism and dysfunctional attitudes with depressive symptoms is mediated through situational expectations.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, depressive symptoms were more strongly associated with the presence of negative expectations than with the absence of positive expectations. In the longitudinal and mediation analyses, none of the cognitive variables had significant associations with depressive symptoms at follow-up beyond the strong influence of baseline depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of negative expectations was cross-sectionally more strongly associated with depressive symptoms than a lack of positive expectations, presumably due to higher variability in negative expectations in this nonclinical sample. The longitudinal and mediation analyses failed to find significant incremental effects of any of the cognitive variables because baseline depression explained the largest proportion of variance.

Operation makalu air crash: influence of cognitive and human factors on decision-making

Two onboard crew members lost their lives in the fatal Makalu Air Cessna Grand Caravan 208B domestic cargo flight crash on May 16, 2018. The Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) procedure comprises external examination, photography, DNA collection, fingerprint collection, postmortem examination, antemortem information collection from the family members, and reconciliation. The major challenge of this operation was dealing with cognitive bias. The antemortem dental information of one of the deceased was revealed to the forensic experts just before the postmortem examination. This influenced the testing strategies. There was a tendency to neglect the complete dental examination presuming the identification was established. Later, during a thorough examination, the forensic odontologist realised that the initial decision was erroneous. Furthermore, there are few experience-based resources available to resolve cognitive bias issues. The authors begin by summarising complicated operations in which they have been involved, followed by a discussion of the key sources of cognitive bias along with the solution to resolve these issues in DVI preparedness planning.

Influences on change in expected and actual health behaviors among first-year university students

Background

First-year students often adopt health risk behaviors during their first semester such as increased consumption of unhealthy food, decreased physical activity, and increased alcohol use. Expectations, social tie's efforts to motivate behavior, and coresidence with parents can influence said behaviors.

Aims

We assessed how students' health behaviors and expectations change over the first semester, and how the aforementioned factors influence the maintenance or change of behavior and expectations.

Methods

A longitudinal survey design was implemented. A total of N = 163 German first-year students (81% female; 18% male; 1% non-binary; M _age = 21.20, SD = 2.66) completed online questionnaires, including the NCHRBS and AUDIT, during the Covid-19 pandemic at the beginning (November 2020) and after the end (May 2021) of their first semester.

Results

Current and expected food consumption and physical activity became healthier over time. The current and expected number of drinks consumed per month increased. Change in expectations for physical activity, number of drinks and binge drinking were predicted by the initial respective behavior. The number of drinks and expected physical activity became unhealthier in relation to reported initial parental influence to drink and to be physically inactive. Moving out of the parental home predicted an increase in current and expected number of drinks and in current and expected binge drinking. These effects of moving out were not mediated by perceived parental or peer influence.

Conclusions

Interventions should target these behaviors and expectations during the first semester and address parental influence on physical activity and alcohol use.

Expectations do not need to be accurate to be maintained: Valence and need for cognitive closure predict expectation update vs. persistence

Expectations about us and our environment serve to successfully anticipate the future, make accurate predictions, and guide behavior and decisions. However, when expectations are not accurate, individuals need to resolve or minimize incongruence. Coping is especially important when expectations affect important domains such as students' academic self-concept. Whether expectations are adjusted after expectation violation (accommodation), maintained by denying the discrepancy (immunization), or whether individuals modify behavior to minimize the likelihood of future expectation violations (assimilation) depends on situational and dispositional predictors. In our experiment, we examined valence of expectation violation (positive vs. negative) as a situational predictor together with need for cognitive closure (NCC) as a dispositional predictor with N = 297 participants in a word riddle study. MANCOVA revealed that students tended to assimilate and accommodate more strongly after worse-than-expected achievement, and also NCC promoted both stronger accommodation and assimilation. NCC interacted with the valence of expectation violation: individuals with high NCC reported more assimilation and accommodation only after worse-than-expected achievement. The results replicate and extend previous findings: individuals do not always strive to have the most accurate expectations possible. Instead, both affective (valence) and cognitive (NCC) predictors appear to affect which coping strategy is preferred by the individual.

Using expectation violation models to improve the outcome of psychological treatments

Expectations are a central maintaining mechanism in mental disorders and most psychological treatments aim to directly or indirectly modify clinically relevant expectations. Therefore, it is crucial to examine why patients with mental disorders maintain dysfunctional expectations, even in light of disconfirming evidence, and how expectation-violating situations should be created in treatment settings to optimize treatment outcome and reduce the risk of treatment failures. The different psychological subdisciplines offer various approaches for understanding the underlying mechanisms of expectation development, persistence, and change. Here, we convey recommendations on how to improve psychological treatments by considering these different perspectives. Based on our expectation violation model, we argue that the outcome of expectation violation depends on several characteristics: features of the expectation-violating situation; the dynamics between the magnitude of expectation violation and cognitive immunization processes; dealing with uncertainties during and after expectation change; controlled and automatic attention processes; and the costs of expectation changes. Personality factors further add to predict outcomes and may offer a basis for personalized treatment planning. We conclude with a list of recommendations derived from basic psychology that could contribute to improved treatment outcome and to reduced risks of treatment failures.

A Bayesian model for chronic pain

The perceiving mind constructs our coherent and embodied experience of the world from noisy, ambiguous and multi-modal sensory information. In this paper, we adopt the perspective that the experience of pain may similarly be the result of a probabilistic, inferential process. Prior beliefs about pain, learned from past experiences, are combined with incoming sensory information in a Bayesian manner to give rise to pain perception. Chronic pain emerges when prior beliefs and likelihoods are biased towards inferring pain from a wide range of sensory data that would otherwise be perceived as harmless. We present a computational model of interoceptive inference and pain experience. It is based on a Bayesian graphical network which comprises a hidden layer, representing the inferred pain state; and an observable layer, representing current sensory information. Within the hidden layer, pain states are inferred from a combination of priors p(pain), transition probabilities between hidden states p(paint+1∣paint) and likelihoods of certain observations p(sensation∣pain). Using variational inference and free-energy minimization, the model is able to learn from observations over time. By systematically manipulating parameter settings, we demonstrate that the model is capable of reproducing key features of both healthy- and chronic pain experience. Drawing on mathematical concepts, we finally simulate treatment resistant chronic pain and discuss mathematically informed treatment options.

From Loss of Control to Social Exclusion: ERP Effects of Preexposure to a Social Threat in the Cyberball Paradigm

Previous studies indicated that the onsets of different social threats, such as threats to ”belonging” and “control”, are inconsistent with the subjective beliefs of social participation and require readjustment of expectations. Because a common cognitive system is assumed to be involved, the adjustment triggered by the experience of a single social threat should affect the processing of subsequent social interactions. We examined how preexposure to a loss of control affected social exclusion processing by using the Cyberball paradigm. An event-related brain component (P3) served as a probe for the state of the expectancy system, and self-reports reflected the subjective evaluations of the social threats. In the control group (n = 23), the transition to exclusion elicited a significant P3 effect and a high threat to belonging in the self-reports. Both effects were significantly reduced when the exclusion was preceded by preexposure to a loss of control (EG1_disc, n = 23). These effects, however, depend on the offset of the preexposure. In case of a continuation (EG2_cont, n = 24), the P3 effect was further reduced, but the threat to belonging was restored. We conclude that the P3 data are consistent with predictions of a common expectancy violation account, whereas self-reports are supposed to be affected by additional processes.

Predictors of Coping with Health-related Expectation Violations among University Students

Objectives: Individuals often experience expectation violations related to the consumption of healthy food and physical activity and they may cope with expectation-disconfirming information by (1) ignoring the discrepancy (immunization), (2) increasing efforts to fulfill them (assimilation), or (3) changing their expectations (accommodation). We investigated whether valence, discrepancy magnitude, and controllability of the expectation disconfirming event predicted coping with expectation violations. Methods: A 2 (valence: positive vs negative) x 2 (discrepancy: larger vs smaller) x 2 (controllability: control vs no control) experimental design was implemented. Overall, we presented 297 university students with vignettes describing expectation violations and present different combinations of predictor levels. Results: Regarding physical activity, participants showed significantly higher accommodation when experiencing a better-than-expected event and showed significantly higher immunization when experiencing a worse-than-expected event. Regarding food consumption and physical activity, individuals experiencing lower discrepancy showed significantly higher immunization; individuals with control over the source of expectation disconfirmation showed significantly higher assimilation; and individuals without control over the source of expectation disconfirmation showed significantly higher accommodation.Conclusions: To promote the maintenance of healthy expectations, despite expectation violations, interventions could foster the perception of control as well as assimilative behavior.

Expectations in the Communication About Death and Dying: Development and Initial Validation of the End-of-Life Conversations - Expectations Scale

End-of-life (EOL) conversations with relatives or significant others are often avoided. One reason can be negative expectations regarding these conversations. The present study was conducted to develop and initially validate the End-of-Life Conversations - Expectations Scale (EOLC-E). An exploratory factor analysis (N = 307) resulted in a 20-item version with three distinct dimensions: expected own emotional burden (α = .92), expected other person's emotional burden (α = .94) and communication self-efficacy (α = .89). The EOLC-E total score correlated significantly with communication apprehension about death (r = .62), fear of death (r = .58), death avoidance (r = .52) as well as readiness for end-of-life conversations (r = -.38) and occurrence of previous conversations (r = -.29). Results suggest that the EOLC-E is a reliable and valid instrument to assess death and dying communication expectations. This measure has utility in communication research focusing on optimizing expectations and increasing EOL communication.

Unraveling Negative Expectations and Nocebo-Related Effects in Musculoskeletal Pain

This Perspective adapts the ViolEx Model, a framework validated in several clinical conditions, to better understand the role of expectations in the recovery and/or maintenance of musculoskeletal (MSK) pain. Here, particular attention is given to the condition in which dysfunctional expectations are maintained despite no longer being supported by confirmatory evidence (i.e., belief-lifting the arm leads to permanent tendon damage; evidence-after the patient lifts the arm no tendon damage occurs). While the ViolEx Model suggests that cognitive immunization strategies are responsible for the maintenance of dysfunctional expectations, we suggest that such phenomenon can also be understood from a Bayesian Brain perspective, according to which the level of precision of the priors (i.e., expectations) is the determinant factor accounting for the extent of priors' updating (i.e., we merge the two frameworks, suggesting that highly precise prior can lead to cognitive immunization responses). Importantly, this Perspective translates the theory behind these two frameworks into clinical suggestions. Precisely, it is argued that different strategies should be implemented when treating MSK pain patients, depending on the nature of their expectations (i.e., positive or negative and the level of their precision).

Response to unexpected social inclusion: A study using the cyberball paradigm

BACKGROUND

Dysfunctional expectations are considered core characteristics of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and should be focused in psychotherapy. Dysfunctional expectations are especially pronounced in the interpersonal area (social expectations). In the present study, we examine the effect of unexpected social inclusion (expectation violation) on the change of generalized and specific depression-typical social expectations.

METHOD

We conducted an online study to investigate the impact of social inclusion after a period of social exclusion (unexpected social inclusion) on social expectation change (sample size 144) in a non-clinical sample. Depressive symptoms were assessed via self-reporting. Participants took part in two rounds of the online ball-game Cyberball. In the first round, all participants were socially excluded by their two co-players (acquisition of negative social expectations). In the second round, participants were either once more excluded (expectation confirmation) or included equally (expectation violation) by the same co-players. Specific and generalized social expectations were assessed after each round.

RESULTS

Specific and generalized social expectations increased following expectation violation. Even though depressive symptoms were related to lower levels of social expectations, we found that depressive symptoms did not moderate expectation change after positive expectation violations.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present experimental setup including the use of the online ball-game Cyberball, the establishment and change of social expectations can be experimentally manipulated. Under the given circumstances and in a non-clinical sample, negative expectations can be updated after unexpected positive experiences regardless of the number of depressive symptoms. The results are discussed in the context of current models of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), expectation change, and cognitive behavioral therapy.