Methods to Develop an in silico Clinical Trial: Computational Head-to-Head Comparison of Lisdexamfetamine and Methylphenidate

A quantitative systems pharmacology workflow toward optimal design and biomarker stratification of atopic dermatitis clinical trials

BACKGROUND

The development of atopic dermatitis (AD) drugs is challenged by many disease phenotypes and trial design options, which are hard to explore experimentally.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to optimize AD trial design using simulations.

METHODS

We constructed a quantitative systems pharmacology model of AD and standard of care (SoC) treatments and generated a phenotypically diverse virtual population whose parameter distribution was derived from known relationships between AD biomarkers and disease severity and calibrated using disease severity evolution under SoC regimens.

RESULTS

We applied this workflow to the immunomodulator OM-85, currently being investigated for its potential use in AD, and calibrated the investigational treatment model with the efficacy profile of an existing trial (thereby enriching it with plausible marker levels and dynamics). We assessed the sensitivity of trial outcomes to trial protocol and found that for this particular example the choice of end point is more important than the choice of dosing regimen and patient selection by model-based responder enrichment could increase the expected effect size. A global sensitivity analysis revealed that only a limited subset of baseline biomarkers is needed to predict the drug response of the full virtual population.

CONCLUSIONS

This AD quantitative systems pharmacology workflow built around knowledge of marker-severity relationships as well as SoC efficacy can be tailored to specific development cases to optimize several trial protocol parameters and biomarker stratification and therefore has promise to become a powerful model-informed AD drug development and personalized medicine tool.

Aflibercept Off-Target Effects in Diabetic Macular Edema: An In Silico Modeling Approach

Intravitreal aflibercept injection (IAI) is a treatment for diabetic macular edema (DME), but its mechanism of action (MoA) has not been completely elucidated. Here, we aimed to explore IAI's MoA and its multi-target nature in DME pathophysiology with an in silico (computer simulation) disease model. We used the Therapeutic Performance Mapping System (Anaxomics Biotech property) to generate mathematical models based on the available scientific knowledge at the time of the study, describing the relationship between the modulation of vascular endothelial growth factor receptors (VEGFRs) by IAI and DME pathophysiological processes. We also undertook an enrichment analysis to explore the processes modulated by IAI, visualized the effectors' predicted protein activity, and specifically evaluated the role of VEGFR1 pathway inhibition on DME treatment. The models simulated the potential pathophysiology of DME and the likely IAI's MoA by inhibiting VEGFR1 and VEGFR2 signaling. The action of IAI through both signaling pathways modulated the identified pathophysiological processes associated with DME, with the strongest effects in angiogenesis, blood-retinal barrier alteration and permeability, and inflammation. VEGFR1 inhibition was essential to modulate inflammatory protein effectors. Given the role of VEGFR1 signaling on the modulation of inflammatory-related pathways, IAI may offer therapeutic advantages for DME through sustained VEGFR1 pathway inhibition.

In Silico Clinical Trials: Is It Possible?

Modeling and simulation (M&S), including in silico (clinical) trials, helps accelerate drug research and development and reduce costs and have coined the term "model-informed drug development (MIDD)." Data-driven, inferential approaches are now becoming increasingly complemented by emerging complex physiologically and knowledge-based disease (and drug) models, but differ in setup, bottlenecks, data requirements, and applications (also reminiscent of the different scientific communities they arose from). At the same time, and within the MIDD landscape, regulators and drug developers start to embrace in silico trials as a potential tool to refine, reduce, and ultimately replace clinical trials. Effectively, silos between the historically distinct modeling approaches start to break down. Widespread adoption of in silico trials still needs more collaboration between different stakeholders and established precedence use cases in key applications, which is currently impeded by a shattered collection of tools and practices. In order to address these key challenges, efforts to establish best practice workflows need to be undertaken and new collaborative M&S tools devised, and an attempt to provide a coherent set of solutions is provided in this chapter. First, a dedicated workflow for in silico clinical trial (development) life cycle is provided, which takes up general ideas from the systems biology and quantitative systems pharmacology space and which implements specific steps toward regulatory qualification. Then, key characteristics of an in silico trial software platform implementation are given on the example of jinkō.ai (nova's end-to-end in silico clinical trial platform). Considering these enabling scientific and technological advances, future applications of in silico trials to refine, reduce, and replace clinical research are indicated, ranging from synthetic control strategies and digital twins, which overall shows promise to begin a new era of more efficient drug development.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of lisdexamfetamine versus methylphenidate for patients under 18 with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in Iran

BACKGROUND

Lisdexamfetamine (LDX) and Methylphenidate (MPH) are stimulant agents that have been shown to provide significant benefits in the management of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in patients.

AIM

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness and the budget impact of LDX compared to MPH as the first-line treatment for ADHD.

METHODS

A one-year cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was conducted to compare the effects of LDX and MPH in reducing disease symptoms and patient costs and improving quality of life (QoL) from a social perspective. Clinical data were obtained using the EQ-5D questionnaire. In contrast, economic data were sourced from the official website of the Iranian Food and Drug Association (FDA), the national book of tariffs, and specific questionnaires designed to evaluate patients' direct and indirect costs. 197 patients were included in the study, including individuals who sought psychiatric evaluation at a hospital in Mashhad and those who obtained ADHD medications from governmental pharmacies. The cost-effectiveness of the study medicine was assessed using the decision tree method, and the results were presented as the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER). Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis (DSA) and Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis (PSA) were performed to assess the robustness of the findings. Additionally, a Budget Impact Analysis (BIA) was conducted over five years, considering three different scenarios, to evaluate the financial implications of incorporating LDX into the national pharmaceutical system.

RESULTS

The ICER for LDX therapy compared to MPH was estimated at USD 264.28 (with an incremental cost of USD 54.9, incremental effectiveness of 0.208, and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained of 0.765). The PSA indicated a 0.994% probability of LDX being cost-effective, considering a threshold of USD 2450 per QALY. Furthermore, the DSA revealed that the acquisition cost of LDX influenced the model's sensitivity. The BIA demonstrated that incorporating LDX into Iran's healthcare system would result in a financial burden of approximately $368,566 in the first year, representing an additional cost of $11,154 compared to the non-availability of this medicine and the use of previous medications. It is projected that by 2027, the financial burden of treating ADHD with LDX will reach approximately USD 443,879 over five years, amounting to an increase of $71,154 compared to the absence of this medicine.

CONCLUSION

From a social perspective, the inclusion of LDX in the treatment regimen for ADHD is associated with higher costs and an increased financial burden. However, based on our analysis, LDX appears to be a cost-effective choice for managing ADHD in Iran when compared to MPH.

A quantitative systems pharmacology model for certolizumab pegol treatment in moderate-to-severe psoriasis

Background

Psoriasis is a chronic immune-mediated inflammatory systemic disease with skin manifestations characterized by erythematous, scaly, itchy and/or painful plaques resulting from hyperproliferation of keratinocytes. Certolizumab pegol [CZP], a PEGylated antigen binding fragment of a humanized monoclonal antibody against TNF-alpha, is approved for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. Patients with psoriasis present clinical and molecular variability, affecting response to treatment. Herein, we utilized an in silico approach to model the effects of CZP in a virtual population (vPop) with moderate-to-severe psoriasis. Our proof-of-concept study aims to assess the performance of our model in generating a vPop and defining CZP response variability based on patient profiles.

Methods

We built a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of a clinical trial-like vPop with moderate-to-severe psoriasis treated with two dosing schemes of CZP (200 mg and 400 mg, both every two weeks for 16 weeks, starting with a loading dose of CZP 400 mg at weeks 0, 2, and 4). We applied different modelling approaches: (i) an algorithm to generate vPop according to reference population values and comorbidity frequencies in real-world populations; (ii) physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models of CZP dosing schemes in each virtual patient; and (iii) systems biology-based models of the mechanism of action (MoA) of the drug.

Results

The combination of our different modelling approaches yielded a vPop distribution and a PBPK model that aligned with existing literature. Our systems biology and QSP models reproduced known biological and clinical activity, presenting outcomes correlating with clinical efficacy measures. We identified distinct clusters of virtual patients based on their psoriasis-related protein predicted activity when treated with CZP, which could help unravel differences in drug efficacy in diverse subpopulations. Moreover, our models revealed clusters of MoA solutions irrespective of the dosing regimen employed.

Conclusion

Our study provided patient specific QSP models that reproduced clinical and molecular efficacy features, supporting the use of computational methods as modelling strategy to explore drug response variability. This might shed light on the differences in drug efficacy in diverse subpopulations, especially useful in complex diseases such as psoriasis, through the generation of mechanistically based hypotheses.

A decision support system based on artificial intelligence and systems biology for the simulation of pancreatic cancer patient status

Oncology treatments require continuous individual adjustment based on the measurement of multiple clinical parameters. Prediction tools exploiting the patterns present in the clinical data could be used to assist decision making and ease the burden associated to the interpretation of all these parameters. The goal of this study was to predict the evolution of patients with pancreatic cancer at their next visit using information routinely recorded in health records, providing a decision-support system for clinicians. We selected hematological variables as the visit's clinical outcomes, under the assumption that they can be predictive of the evolution of the patient. Multivariate models based on regression trees were generated to predict next-visit values for each of the clinical outcomes selected, based on the longitudinal clinical data as well as on molecular data sets streaming from in silico simulations of individual patient status at each visit. The models predict, with a mean prediction score (balanced accuracy) of 0.79, the evolution trends of eosinophils, leukocytes, monocytes, and platelets. Time span between visits and neutropenia were among the most common factors contributing to the predicted evolution. The inclusion of molecular variables from the systems-biology in silico simulations provided a molecular background for the observed variations in the selected outcome variables, mostly in relation to the regulation of hematopoiesis. In spite of its limitations, this study serves as a proof of concept for the application of next-visit prediction tools in real-world settings, even when available data sets are small.

In silico evaluation of the role of lisdexamfetamine on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder common psychiatric comorbidities: mechanistic insights on binge eating disorder and depression

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a psychiatric condition well recognized in the pediatric population that can persist into adulthood. The vast majority of patients with ADHD present psychiatric comorbidities that have been suggested to share, to some extent, the pathophysiological mechanism of ADHD. Lisdexamfetamine (LDX) is a stimulant prodrug approved for treating ADHD and, in the US, also for binge eating disorder (BED). Herein, we evaluated, through a systems biology-based in silico method, the efficacy of a virtual model of LDX (vLDX) as ADHD treatment to improve five common ADHD psychiatric comorbidities in adults and children, and we explored the molecular mechanisms behind LDX's predicted efficacy. After the molecular characterization of vLDX and the comorbidities (anxiety, BED, bipolar disorder, depression, and tics disorder), we created a protein-protein interaction human network to which we applied artificial neural networks (ANN) algorithms. We also generated virtual populations of adults and children-adolescents totaling 2,600 individuals and obtained the predicted protein activity from Therapeutic Performance Mapping System models. The latter showed that ADHD molecular description shared 53% of its protein effectors with at least one studied psychiatric comorbidity. According to the ANN analysis, proteins targeted by vLDX are predicted to have a high probability of being related to BED and depression. In BED, vLDX was modeled to act upon neurotransmission and neuroplasticity regulators, and, in depression, vLDX regulated the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, neuroinflammation, oxidative stress, and glutamatergic excitotoxicity. In conclusion, our modeling results, despite their limitations and although requiring in vitro or in vivo validation, could supplement the design of preclinical and potentially clinical studies that investigate treatment for patients with ADHD with psychiatric comorbidities, especially from a molecular point of view.

In silico clinical trial evaluating lisdexamfetamine's and methylphenidate's mechanism of action computational models in an attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder virtual patients' population

Introduction

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is an impairing psychiatric condition with the stimulants, lisdexamfetamine (LDX), and methylphenidate (MPH), as the first lines pharmacological treatment.

Methods

Herein, we applied a novel in silico method to evaluate virtual LDX (vLDX) and vMPH as treatments for ADHD applying quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models. The objectives were to evaluate the model's output, considering the model characteristics and the information used to build them, to compare both virtual drugs' efficacy mechanisms, and to assess how demographic (age, body mass index, and sex) and clinical characteristics may affect vLDX's and vMPH's relative efficacies.

Results and Discussion

We molecularly characterized the drugs and pathologies based on a bibliographic search, and generated virtual populations of adults and children-adolescents totaling 2,600 individuals. For each virtual patient and virtual drug, we created physiologically based pharmacokinetic and QSP models applying the systems biology-based Therapeutic Performance Mapping System technology. The resulting models' predicted protein activity indicated that both virtual drugs modulated ADHD through similar mechanisms, albeit with some differences. vMPH induced several general synaptic, neurotransmitter, and nerve impulse-related processes, whereas vLDX seemed to modulate neural processes more specific to ADHD, such as GABAergic inhibitory synapses and regulation of the reward system. While both drugs' models were linked to an effect over neuroinflammation and altered neural viability, vLDX had a significant impact on neurotransmitter imbalance and vMPH on circadian system deregulation. Among demographic characteristics, age and body mass index affected the efficacy of both virtual treatments, although the effect was more marked for vLDX. Regarding comorbidities, only depression negatively impacted both virtual drugs' efficacy mechanisms and, while that of vLDX were more affected by the co-treatment of tic disorders, the efficacy mechanisms of vMPH were disturbed by wide-spectrum psychiatric drugs. Our in silico results suggested that both drugs could have similar efficacy mechanisms as ADHD treatment in adult and pediatric populations and allowed raising hypotheses for their differential impact in specific patient groups, although these results require prospective validation for clinical translatability.

Drug Development for New Psychiatric Drug Therapies

Drug development is an expensive, high risk, and highly regulated process. Only about 6.2% of new molecules tested for mental disorders eventually achieve Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval. New molecular entities are produced, and extensive in vitro animal testing is performed before they are evaluated in humans. The compound is used in animals to predict clinical effects in humans, and studies addressing pharmacodynamics, pharmacokinetics, toxicology, and mutagenicity are conducted. Human research proceeds in three stages with the ultimate goal of proving that a new agent is efficacious and safe for a treatment of a specific disease in humans. If efficacy and safety are demonstrated in two Phase III studies, then the sponsor can submit a new drug application (NDA) to the FDA. The FDA oversees each step of the process to assure that good research practices are followed, data integrity is assured, and human research subjects are protected.

Unveiling chronic spontaneous urticaria pathophysiology through systems biology

BACKGROUND

Chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) is a rare, heterogeneous, severely debilitating, and often poorly controlled skin disease resulting in an itchy eruption that can be persistent. Antihistamines and omalizumab, an anti-IgE mAb, are the only licensed therapies. Although CSU pathogenesis is not yet fully understood, mast cell activation through the IgE:high-affinity IgE receptor (FcεRI) axis appears central to the disease process.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to model CSU pathophysiology and identify in silico the mechanism of action of different CSU therapeutic strategies currently in use or under development.

METHODS

Therapeutic performance mapping system technology, based on systems biology and machine learning, was used to create a CSU interactome validated with gene expression data from patients with CSU and a CSU model that was used to evaluate CSU pathophysiology and the mechanism of action of different therapeutic strategies.

RESULTS

Our models reflect the known role of mast cell activation as a central process of CSU pathophysiology, as well as recognized roles for different therapeutic strategies in this and other innate and adaptive immune processes. They also allow determining similarities and differences between them; anti-IgE and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors play a more direct role in mast cell biology through abrogation of FcεRI signaling activity, whereas anti-interleukins and anti-Siglec-8 have a role in adaptive immunity modulation.

CONCLUSION

In silico CSU models reproduced known CSU and therapeutic strategies features. Our results could help advance understanding of therapeutic mechanisms of action and further advance treatment research by patient profile.

Addressing the Treatment and Service Needs of Young Adults with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

The transition from adolescence to adulthood is a complex period in which multiple changes take place (education, work, independent living, and social relations). This stage is especially difficult for adolescents suffering from attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), who have to move on from child and adolescent mental health services to adult mental health services. This review analyzes developmental and environmental risk and protective factors as well as critical variables such as executive functioning and self-monitoring that influence the course of ADHD in transitional age youth and guide the priorities for an optimal transition of care. The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic is also discussed. We reflect on the unmet needs for an optimal transition of care and propose practice and policy recommendations to achieve this goal.

Computer-Aided Drug Design (CADD) to De-Orphanize Marine Molecules: Finding Potential Therapeutic Agents for Neurodegenerative and Cardiovascular Diseases

Computer-aided drug design (CADD) techniques allow the identification of compounds capable of modulating protein functions in pathogenesis-related pathways, which is a promising line on drug discovery. Marine natural products (MNPs) are considered a rich source of bioactive compounds, as the oceans are home to much of the planet's biodiversity. Biodiversity is directly related to chemodiversity, which can inspire new drug discoveries. Therefore, natural products (NPs) in general, and MNPs in particular, have been used for decades as a source of inspiration for the design of new drugs. However, NPs present both opportunities and challenges. These difficulties can be technical, such as the need to dive or trawl to collect the organisms possessing the compounds, or biological, due to their particular marine habitats and the fact that they can be uncultivable in the laboratory. For all these difficulties, the contributions of CADD can play a very relevant role in simplifying their study, since, for example, no biological sample is needed to carry out an in-silico analysis. Therefore, the amount of natural product that needs to be used in the entire preclinical and clinical study is significantly reduced. Here, we exemplify how this combination between CADD and MNPs can help unlock their therapeutic potential. In this study, using a set of marine invertebrate molecules, we elucidate their possible molecular targets and associated therapeutic potential, establishing a pipeline that can be replicated in future studies.