Epidemiology and Economic Burden of an Outbreak of Cyclopeptide-Containing Mushroom Poisoning in the West of Iran

Mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou Province, China: a prediction study using SARIMA and Prophet models

Mushroom poisoning is a public health concern worldwide that not only harms the physical and mental health of those who are poisoned but also increases the medical and financial burden on families and society. The present study aimed to describe and analyze the current situations and factors influencing mushroom poisoning outbreaks in Guizhou province, Southwest China, between January 2012 and June 2022, and to predict the future trends of its occurrence. Our study provides a basis for the rational formulation of prevention and control and medical resource allocation policies for mushroom poisoning. The epidemiological characteristics and factors influencing mushroom poisoning incidence were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods and the chi-squared test, respectively. Then, future occurrence trends were predicted using the SARIMA and Prophet models. In total, 1577 mushroom poisoning incidents were recorded in Guizhou Province, with 7347 exposures, 5497 cases, 3654 hospitalizations, and 93 fatalities. The mortality rate was 4.45% in 1 ~ 6 years higher than other age groups. There were notable geographic and seasonal characteristics, with the number of occurrences much higher in rural areas (1198) than in cities (379), and poisoning cases were more common during the rainy season (June to September). The mortality rate of household poisoning cases was 1.86%, with the most deaths occurring in households. Statistically significant differences were observed in the incidence across various cities, periods, and poisoning locations (P < 0.05). Both models had advantages and disadvantages for prediction. Nevertheless, the SARIMA model had better overall prediction results than the Prophet model (R > 0.9, the residual plot of the prediction results was randomly distributed, and RMSESARIMA < RMSEProphet). However, the prediction result plot of the Prophet model was more explanatory than the SARIMA model and could visualize overall and seasonal trends. Both models predicted that the prevalence of mushroom poisoning would continue to increase in the future; however, the number of fatalities is generally declining. Seasonal patterns indicated that a high number of deaths from gooseberry mushroom poisoning occurred in October. The epidemiological trends of mushroom poisoning remain severe, and health education on related knowledge must be strengthened in rural areas, with June to October as the key prevention and control phase. Further, medical treatment of mushroom poisoning cases with clinical symptoms should pay attention to inquiries to check whether the mushroom is similar in appearance to the Amanita, particularly in October.

Avicenna's clinical toxicology approach and beneficial materia medica against oral poisoning

Considering the rich background of Persian Medicine in the use of materia medica for the treatment of diseases, the huge burden of oral poisonings in the world, and the urgent need to find scientific solutions, the purpose of this study was to determine Avicenna's approach toward clinical toxicology and his proposed treatments for oral poisonings. In Al-Qanun Fi Al-Tibb, Avicenna addressed the materia medica for the treatments of oral poisonings after explaining the ingestion of different toxins and also elucidating the clinical toxicology approach toward poisoned patients. These materia medica were from different classes including emetics, purgatives, enemas, diaphoretics, antidiarrheals, inhaled drugs, sternutators, anticoagulants, antiepileptics, antitussives, diuretics, cooling drugs, stimulants, cardiotonic drugs, and heating oils. By applying different therapies, Avicenna endeavored to attain main goals in clinical toxicology that are comparable with modern medicine. They included removing the toxins from the body, decreasing the severity of the deleterious effects of toxins on the body, and counteracting the effects of toxins inside the body. Aside from introducing different therapeutic agents that played an important role in the treatment of oral poisonings, he emphasized the ameliorating effects of nutritive foods and beverages. Further research using other Persian medical resources is recommended to elucidate the applicable approaches and treatments for different poisonings.