Reliable and Interpretable Mortality Prediction With Strong Foresight in COVID-19 Patients: An International Study From China and Germany

Insights into the epidemiology, risk factors, and clinical outcomes of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii infections in critically ill children

Background and aims

Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) has become a leading cause of nosocomial infections with an increasing impact on critically ill patients, yet there is limited data on contributing factors. This study was aim to evaluate the prevalence and risk factors, and clinical outcomes of CRAB infections among critically ill children in a tertiary university teaching hospital in China.

Methods

From January 2016 to December 2021, all children diagnosed with nosocomial Acinetobacter baumannii (A. baumannii) infections in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) were identified through the computerized microbiology laboratory databases. Among them, children suffering from CRAB infection were designated as a case group, while children with carbapenem susceptible A. baumannii (CSAB) infection were assigned to a control group. This retrospective case-control study was based on two groups of patients to determine potential clinical factors contributing to CRAB infection and death among critically ill children via univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

During the 6-year study period, a total of 372 episodes of nosocomial A. baumannii infection in the PICU were eligible and included in the study. These isolates displayed moderate or high rates of resistance to all tested antimicrobials except colistin. The overall prevalence of CRAB and MDRAB (multidrug-resistant A. baumannii) was 78.0% and 80.9%, respectively. Several risk factors found to significantly increase CRAB infection included receiving invasive operation (OR = 9.412, p = 0.001), gastric intubation (OR = 2.478, p = 0.026), prior carbapenems exposure (OR = 2.543, p = 0.003), severe pneumonia (OR = 3.235, p = 0.001), and hemoglobin <110g/L (OR = 3.049, p = 0.005). Of 372 patients with CRAB infection, the mortality rate was 30.9% (115/372) and mortality did not differ between children with CRAB and CSAB infections. Septic shock (OR = 2.992, p = 0.001), AST > 46U/L (OR = 2.015, p = 0.005), bone marrow aspiration (OR = 2.704, p = 0.008), lymphocyte <20 % (OR = 1.992, p = 0.006) and age (OR = 1.094, p = 0.002) were independent risk factors for the death of A. baumanni infection.

Conclusions

This study highlights considerable incidence rate and remarkable mortality of children with A. baumanni (especially CRAB) infections, and identifies age-specific risk factors for CRAB infection and mortality in critically ill children. These risk factors should be taken into account in pediatric hospitals in order to establish early intervention and rational treatment to improve clinical outcomes.

Differences in the severity and mortality risk factors for patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia between the early wave and the very late stage of the pandemic

Background

Since China's dynamic zero-COVID policy is cancelled on December 7, 2022, the rapidly growing number of patients has brought a major public health challenge. This study aimed to assess whether there were differences in the severity and mortality risk factors for patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia between the early wave and the very late stage of the pandemic.

Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out using data from 223 hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia during the Omicron surge in Xi'an People's Hospital (Xi'an Fourth Hospital) from December 8, 2022, to January 31, 2023. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify potential risk factors associated with the severity and mortality of COVID-19 pneumonia during the first wave of the pandemic after the dynamic zero-COVID policy was retracted. Differences in the severity and mortality risk factors were assessed at different stages of the pandemic, mainly from demographic, clinical manifestation, laboratory tests and radiological findings of patients on admission.

Results

The mean age of the 223 participants was 71.2 ± 17.4. Compared with the patients in the initial stage of the pandemic, the most common manifestation among patients in this study was cough (90.6%), rather than fever (79.4%). Different from the initial stage of the pandemic, older age, chest tightness, elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), decreased albumin (ALB) level and ground glass opacification (GGO) in radiological finding were identified as severity risk factors, instead of mortality risk factors for COVID-19 patients in the very late stage of the pandemic. Arterial partial pressure of oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) ≤300 mmHg, cardiovascular disease and laboratory findings including elevated levels of D-dimer, α-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (α-HBDH), total bilirubin (TBIL), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine (CR), fasting blood glucose (FBG) and decreased platelet count (PLT) were still associated with mortality in the very late stage of the pandemic.

Conclusion

Monitoring continuously differences in the severity and mortality risk factors for COVID-19 patients between different stages of the pandemic could provide evidence for exploring uncharted territory in the coming post-pandemic era.

Decoding herbal materials of TCM preparations with the multi-barcode sequencing approach

With the rapid development of high-throughput sequencing technology, approaches for assessing biological ingredients in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) preparations have also advanced. Using a multi-barcode sequencing approach, all biological ingredients could be identified from TCM preparations in theory, as long as their DNA is present. The biological ingredients of several classical TCM preparations were analyzed successfully based on this approach in previous studies. However, the universality, sensitivity and reliability of this approach on a diverse set of TCM preparations remain unclear. In this study, we selected four representative TCM preparations, namely Bazhen Yimu Wan, Da Huoluo Wan, Niuhuang Jiangya Wan, and You Gui Wan, for concrete assessment of the multi-barcode sequencing approach. Based on ITS2 and trnL biomarkers, we have successfully detected the prescribed herbal materials (PHMs) in these representative TCM preparations (minimum sensitivity: 77.8%, maximum sensitivity: 100%). The results based on ITS2 have also shown higher reliability than trnL at species level, while their combination could provide higher sensitivity and reliability. The multi-barcode sequencing approach has shown good universality, sensitivity and reliability in decoding these four representative TCM preparations. In the omics big-data era, this work has undoubtedly made one step forward for applying multi-barcode sequencing approach in PHMs analysis of TCM preparation, towards better digitization and modernization of drug quality control.