A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting Readmission or Mortality in Patients Hospitalized for Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack

An Integrated Multi-omics prediction model for stroke recurrence based on Lnet transformer layer and dynamic weighting mechanism

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Stroke is a disease with high mortality and disability. Importantly, the fatality rate demonstrates a significant increase among patients afflicted by recurrent strokes compared to those experiencing their initial stroke episode. Currently, the existing research encounters three primary challenges. The first is the lack of a reliable, multi-omics image dataset related to stroke recurrence. The second is how to establish a high-performance feature extraction model and eliminate noise from continuous magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. The third is how to integration multi-omics data and dynamically weighted for different omics data.

METHODS

We systematically compiled MRI and conventional detection data from a cohort comprising 737 stroke patients and established PSTSZC, a multi-omics dataset for predicting stroke recurrence. We introduced the first-ever Integrated Multi-omics Prediction Model for Stroke Recurrence, MPSR, which is based on ResNet, Lnet-transformer, LSTM and dynamically weighted DNN. The MPSR model comprises two principal modules, the Feature Extraction Module, and the Integrated Multi-Omics Prediction Module. In the Feature Extraction module, we proposed a novel Lnet regularization layer, which effectively addresses noise issues in MRI data. In the Integrated Multi-omics Prediction Module, we propose a dynamic weighted mechanism based on evaluators, which mitigates the noise impact brought about by low-performance omics.

RESULTS

We compared seven single-omics models and six state-of-the-art multi-omics stroke recurrence models. The experimental results demonstrate that the MPSR model exhibited superior performance. The accuracy, AUROC, specificity, and sensitivity of the MPSR model can reach 0.96, 0.97, 1, and 0.94, respectively, which is higher than the results of contrast model.

CONCLUSION

MPSR is the first available high-performance multi-omics prediction model for stroke recurrence. We assert that the MPSR model holds the potential to function as a valuable tool in assisting clinicians in accurately diagnosing individuals with a predisposition to stroke recurrence.

Characteristics associated with 30-day post-stroke readmission within an academic urban hospital network

OBJECTIVES

Hospital readmissions are associated with poor health outcomes including illness severity and medical complications. The objective of this study was to identify characteristics associated with 30-day post-stroke readmission in an academic urban hospital network.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We collected data on patients admitted with stroke from 2017 through 2022 who were readmitted within 30 days of discharge and compared them to a subset of non-readmitted stroke patients. Chart review was used to collect demographics, characteristics of the stroke, co-morbid conditions, in-hospital complications, and post-discharge care. Univariate analyses followed by regression analysis were used to assess characteristics associated with post-stroke readmission.

RESULTS

We identified 4743 patients with stroke (18 % hemorrhagic, mean age 70.1 (standard deviation (SD) 17.2), 47.3 % female) discharged from the stroke services, of whom 282 (5.9 %) patients were readmitted within 30 days of index hospitalization. Univariate analyses identified 18 significantly different features between admitted and readmitted patients. Regression analysis revealed characteristics associated with readmission included private insurance (odds ratio (OR) 0.4, confidence interval (CI) 0.3-0.6, p < 0.001), comorbid peripheral vascular disease (PVD) (OR 2.7, CI 1.3-5.5, p = 0.009), malignancy (OR 1.6, CI 1.0-2.6, p = 0.04), seizure (OR 3.4, CI 1.4-8.2, p = 0.007), thrombolytic administration (OR 0.4, CI 0.2-0.7, p = 0.003), undergoing thrombectomy (OR 5.4, CI 2.9-10.1, p < 0.001), and higher discharge modified Rankin Scale score (OR 1.2, CI 1.0-1.3, p = 0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data demonstrate that thrombectomy, high discharge Rankin score, comorbid malignancy, seizure or PVD, and lack of thrombolytic administration or private insurance predict readmission.

Developmental Prediction of Poststroke Patients in Activities of Daily Living by Using Tree-Structured Parzen Estimator-Optimized Stacking Ensemble Approaches

Poststroke injuries limit the daily activities of patients and cause considerable inconvenience. Therefore, predicting the activities of daily living (ADL) results of patients with stroke before hospital discharge can assist clinical workers in formulating more personalized and effective strategies for therapeutic intervention, and prepare hospital discharge plans that suit the patients needs. This study used the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure to evaluate the performance of the machine learning models. In addition, testing methods were used to identify the optimal weak learners, which were then combined to form a stacking model. Subsequently, a hyperparameter optimization algorithm was used to optimize the model hyperparameters. Finally, optimization algorithms were used to analyze each feature, and features of high importance were identified by limiting the number of features to be included in the machine learning models. After various features were fed into the learning models to predict the Barthel index (BI) at discharge, the results indicated that random forest (RF), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), and multilayer perceptron (MLP) produced suitable results. The most critical prediction factor of this study was the BI at admission. Machine learning models can be used to assist clinical workers in predicting the ADL of patients with stroke at hospital discharge.

GSTCNet: Gated spatio-temporal correlation network for stroke mortality prediction

Stroke continues to be the most common cause of death in China. It has great significance for mortality prediction for stroke patients, especially in terms of analyzing the complex interactions between non-negligible factors. In this paper, we present a gated spatio-temporal correlation network (GSTCNet) to predict the one-year post-stroke mortality. Based on the four categories of risk factors: vascular event, chronic disease, medical usage and surgery, we designed a gated correlation graph convolution kernel to capture spatial features and enhance the spatial correlation between feature categories. Bi-LSTM represents the temporal features of five timestamps. The novel gated correlation attention mechanism is then connected to the Bi-LSTM to realize the comprehensive mining of spatio-temporal correlations. Using the data on 2275 patients obtained from the neurology department of a local hospital, we constructed a series of sequential experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive results on each evaluation metric, reaching an AUC of 89.17%, a precision of 97.75%, a recall of 95.33% and an F1-score of 95.19%. The interpretability analysis of the feature categories and timestamps also verified the potential application value of the model for stroke.

Predictive modeling for COVID-19 readmission risk using machine learning algorithms

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed healthcare systems with severe shortages in hospital resources such as ICU beds, specialized doctors, and respiratory ventilators. In this situation, reducing COVID-19 readmissions could potentially maintain hospital capacity. By employing machine learning (ML), we can predict the likelihood of COVID-19 readmission risk, which can assist in the optimal allocation of restricted resources to seriously ill patients.

Methods

In this retrospective single-center study, the data of 1225 COVID-19 patients discharged between January 9, 2020, and October 20, 2021 were analyzed. First, the most important predictors were selected using the horse herd optimization algorithms. Then, three classical ML algorithms, including decision tree, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors, and a hybrid algorithm, namely water wave optimization (WWO) as a precise metaheuristic evolutionary algorithm combined with a neural network were used to construct predictive models for COVID-19 readmission. Finally, the performance of prediction models was measured, and the best-performing one was identified.

Results

The ML algorithms were trained using 17 validated features. Among the four selected ML algorithms, the WWO had the best average performance in tenfold cross-validation (accuracy: 0.9705, precision: 0.9729, recall: 0.9869, specificity: 0.9259, F-measure: 0.9795).

Conclusions

Our findings show that the WWO algorithm predicts the risk of readmission of COVID-19 patients more accurately than other ML algorithms. The models developed herein can inform frontline clinicians and healthcare policymakers to manage and optimally allocate limited hospital resources to seriously ill COVID-19 patients.

Design of an artificial neural network to predict mortality among COVID-19 patients

Introduction

The fast pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has challenged clinicians with many uncertainties and ambiguities regarding disease outcomes and complications. To deal with these uncertainties, our study aimed to develop and evaluate several artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the mortality risk in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Material and methods

The data of 1710 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were used in this retrospective and developmental study. First, a Chi-square test (P < 0.05), Eta coefficient (η > 0.4), and binary logistics regression (BLR) analysis were performed to determine the factors affecting COVID-19 mortality. Then, using the selected variables, two types of feed-forward (FF) models, including the back-propagation (BP) and distributed time delay (DTD) were trained. The models' performance was assessed using mean squared error (MSE), error histogram (EH), and area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) metrics.

Results

After applying the univariate and multivariate analysis, 13 variables were selected as important features in predicting COVID-19 mortality at P < 0.05. A comparison of the two ANN architectures using the MSE showed that the BP-ANN (validation error: 0.067, most of the classified samples having 0.049 and 0.05 error rates, and AUC-ROC: 0.888) was the best model.

Conclusions

Our findings show the acceptable performance of ANN for predicting the risk of mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Application of the developed ANN-based CDSS in a real clinical environment will improve patient safety and reduce disease severity and mortality.

Predicting hospital readmission risk in patients with COVID-19: A machine learning approach

Introduction

The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic stunned the health systems with severe scarcities in hospital resources. In this critical situation, decreasing COVID-19 readmissions could potentially sustain hospital capacity. This study aimed to select the most affecting features of COVID-19 readmission and compare the capability of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict COVID-19 readmission based on the selected features.

Material and methods

The data of 5791 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were retrospectively recruited from a hospital registry system. The LASSO feature selection algorithm was used to select the most important features related to COVID-19 readmission. HistGradientBoosting classifier (HGB), Bagging classifier, Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine ((SVM) kernel = linear), SVM (kernel = RBF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifiers were used for prediction. We evaluated the performance of ML algorithms with a 10-fold cross-validation method using six performance evaluation metrics.

Results

Out of the 42 features, 14 were identified as the most relevant predictors. The XGBoost classifier outperformed the other six ML models with an average accuracy of 91.7%, specificity of 91.3%, the sensitivity of 91.6%, F-measure of 91.8%, and AUC of 0.91%.

Conclusion

The experimental results prove that ML models can satisfactorily predict COVID-19 readmission. Besides considering the risk factors prioritized in this work, categorizing cases with a high risk of reinfection can make the patient triaging procedure and hospital resource utilization more effective.

Interpretability analysis of one-year mortality prediction for stroke patients based on deep neural network

Clinically, physicians collect the benchmark medical data to establish archives for a stroke patient and then add the follow up data regularly. It has great significance on prognosis prediction for stroke patients. In this paper, we present an interpretable deep learning model to predict the one-year mortality risk on stroke. We design sub-modules to reconstruct features from original clinical data that highlight the dissimilarity and temporality of different variables. The model consists of Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), in which a novel correlation attention module is proposed that takes the correlation of variables into consideration. In experiments, datasets are collected clinically from the department of neurology in a local AAA hospital. It consists of 2,275 stroke patients hospitalized in the department of neurology from 2014 to 2016. Our model achieves a precision of 0.9414, a recall of 0.9502 and an F1-score of 0.9415. In addition, we provide the analysis of the interpretability by visualizations with reference to clinical professional guidelines.

Predictive modeling for 14-day unplanned hospital readmission risk by using machine learning algorithms

BACKGROUND

Early unplanned hospital readmissions are associated with increased harm to patients, increased medical costs, and negative hospital reputation. With the identification of at-risk patients, a crucial step toward improving care, appropriate interventions can be adopted to prevent readmission. This study aimed to build machine learning models to predict 14-day unplanned readmissions.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on 37,091 consecutive hospitalized adult patients with 55,933 discharges between September 1, 2018, and August 31, 2019, in an 1193-bed university hospital. Patients who were aged < 20 years, were admitted for cancer-related treatment, participated in clinical trial, were discharged against medical advice, died during admission, or lived abroad were excluded. Predictors for analysis included 7 categories of variables extracted from hospital's medical record dataset. In total, four machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and categorical boosting, were used to build classifiers for prediction. The performance of prediction models for 14-day unplanned readmission risk was evaluated using precision, recall, F1-score, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).

RESULTS

In total, 24,722 patients were included for the analysis. The mean age of the cohort was 57.34 ± 18.13 years. The 14-day unplanned readmission rate was 1.22%. Among the 4 machine learning algorithms selected, Catboost had the best average performance in fivefold cross-validation (precision: 0.9377, recall: 0.5333, F1-score: 0.6780, AUROC: 0.9903, and AUPRC: 0.7515). After incorporating 21 most influential features in the Catboost model, its performance improved (precision: 0.9470, recall: 0.5600, F1-score: 0.7010, AUROC: 0.9909, and AUPRC: 0.7711).

CONCLUSIONS

Our models reliably predicted 14-day unplanned readmissions and were explainable. They can be used to identify patients with a high risk of unplanned readmission based on influential features, particularly features related to diagnoses. The operation of the models with physiological indicators also corresponded to clinical experience and literature. Identifying patients at high risk with these models can enable early discharge planning and transitional care to prevent readmissions. Further studies should include additional features that may enable further sensitivity in identifying patients at a risk of early unplanned readmissions.

Current Trends in Readmission Prediction: An Overview of Approaches

Hospital readmission shortly after discharge threatens the quality of patient care and leads to increased medical care costs. In the United States, hospitals with high readmission rates are subject to federal financial penalties. This concern calls for incentives for healthcare facilities to reduce their readmission rates by predicting patients who are at high risk of readmission. Conventional practices involve the use of rule-based assessment scores and traditional statistical methods, such as logistic regression, in developing risk prediction models. The recent advancements in machine learning driven by improved computing power and sophisticated algorithms have the potential to produce highly accurate predictions. However, the value of such models could be overrated. Meanwhile, the use of other flexible models that leverage simple algorithms offer great transparency in terms of feature interpretation, which is beneficial in clinical settings. This work presents an overview of the current trends in risk prediction models developed in the field of readmission. The various techniques adopted by researchers in recent years are described, and the topic of whether complex models outperform simple ones in readmission risk stratification is investigated.

Predicting Clinical Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke Using Parallel Multi-parametric Feature Embedded Siamese Network

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and disability worldwide, with ischemic stroke as the most common type. The preferred diagnostic procedure at the acute stage is the acquisition of multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). This type of imaging not only detects and locates the stroke lesion, but also provides the blood flow dynamics that helps clinicians in assessing the risks and benefits of reperfusion therapies. However, evaluating the outcome of these risky therapies beforehand is a complicated task due to the variability of lesion location, size, shape, and cerebral hemodynamics involved. Though the fully automated model for predicting treatment outcomes using multi-parametric imaging would be highly valuable in clinical settings, MRI datasets acquired at the acute stage are mostly scarce and suffer high class imbalance. In this paper, parallel multi-parametric feature embedded siamese network (PMFE-SN) is proposed that can learn with few samples and can handle skewness in multi-parametric MRI data. Moreover, five suitable evaluation metrics that are insensitive to imbalance are defined for this problem. The results show that PMFE-SN not only outperforms other state-of-the-art techniques in all these metrics but also can predict the class with a small number of samples, as well as the class with high number of samples. An accuracy of 0.67 on leave one cross out testing has been achieved with only two samples (minority class) for training and accuracy of 0.61 with the highest number of samples (majority class). In comparison, state-of-the-art using hand crafted features has 0 accuracy for minority class and 0.33 accuracy for majority class.