Climate Profiles in Brazilian Microregions

Association of low and high ambient temperature with mortality for cardiorespiratory diseases in Brazil

Extreme temperatures are a major public health concern, as they have been linked to an increased risk of mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases. Brazil, a country with vast geographic and climatic variations, is particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of extreme temperatures. In this study, we examined the nationwide (considering 5572 municipalities) association of low and high ambient temperature (1st and 99th percentiles) with daily mortality for circulatory and respiratory diseases in Brazil between 2003 and 2017. We used an extension of the two-stage time-series design. First, we applied a case time series design in combination with distributed lag non-linear modeling (DLMN) framework to assess the association by Brazilian region. Here, the analyses were stratified by sex, age group (15-45, 46-65, and >65 years), and cause of death (respiratory and circulatory mortality). In the second stage, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate pooled effects across the Brazilian regions. Our study population included 1,071,090 death records due to cardiorespiratory diseases in Brazil over the study period. We found increased risk of respiratory and circulatory mortality associated with low and high ambient temperatures. The pooled national results for the whole population (all ages and sex) suggest a relative risk (RR) of 1.27 (95% CI: 1.16; 1.37) and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01; 1.21) associated with circulatory mortality during cold and heat exposure, respectively. For respiratory mortality, we estimated a RR of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08; 1.25) during cold exposure and a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 0.99; 1.28) during heat exposure. The national meta-analysis indicated robust positive associations for circulatory mortality on cold days across several subgroups by sex and age, while only a few subgroups presented robust positive associations for circulatory mortality on warm days and respiratory mortality on both cold and warm days. These findings have important public health implications for Brazil and suggest the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme temperatures on human health.

Imputation of precipitation data in northeast Brazil

This article evaluates four statistical methods of multiple imputation to fill in the missing data of daily precipitation in Northeast Brazil (NEB). We used a daily database collected by 94 rain gauges distributed in NEB from January 1, 1986 to December 31, 2015. The methods were: random sampling from the observed values; predictive mean matching, Bayesian linear regression; and bootstrap expectation maximization algorithm (BootEm). To compare these methods, missing data from the original series were initially excluded. The next step was to create three scenarios for each method, in which 10\%, 20\% and 30\% of the data were removed at random. The BootEM method presented the best statistical results. With the average bias between the complete series and the imputed series values ranging between -0.91 and 1.30 mm/day. The values of the Pearson correlation ranging between 0.96, 0.91 and 0.86 respectively for 10\%, 20\% and 30\% missing data. We conclude that this is an adequate method for the reconstruction of historical precipitation data in NEB.

Profiling sociodemographic attributes and extreme precipitation events as mediators of climate-induced disasters in municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Introduction

Data indicate an increase in the number of natural disasters in Brazil, with a large share of these events occurring in the state of Minas Gerais. This study examines precipitation-related natural disasters recorded between 1991 and 2016 in Minas Gerais by identifying municipality profiles (encompassing the number of droughts, flash floods, and flooding events), their sensitivity to geophysical and extreme climatic exposure, and their relation to sociodemographic and infrastructure characteristics.

Methods

We combine climate data on seven extreme rainfall indices with elevation data for each municipal seat. We obtained data on droughts, flash floods, and floods from the Center for Engineering and Civil Defense Research and Studies. Population and socio-sanitary characteristics were obtained from the 2010 Brazilian Demographic Census. First, we modeled the climatic-geo-socio-sanitary data using latent class analysis as a pure latent cluster model (LCM) without covariates on seven extreme precipitation indices coupled with altitude data. Subsequently, the LCM was used to identify precipitation-related disaster clusters, including clusters from the 1S-LCM as an active covariate (2S-LCM). Finally, we utilized sociodemographic and infrastructure variables simultaneously with the clusters from the 2S-LCM on an LCM without active covariates (3S-LCM).

Results

Our results show an increase in precipitation-related disasters in Minas Gerais, with municipalities located in the northern part of the state being particularly affected. The state registered 5,553 natural disasters in this period, with precipitation-related disasters representing 94.5% of all natural disasters. The 1S-LCM identified four homoclimatic zones, encompassing a low-altitude dry zone, a relatively low-altitude intermediately wet zone, a relatively high-altitude intermediately wet zone, and a high-altitude wet zone. The 2S-LCM produced four precipitation-related disaster classes, denominated low risk, high risk of excess precipitation, intermediate risk of precipitation deficit and excess, and high risk of precipitation deficit.

Discussion

Cities with better infrastructure and sociodemographic profiles in semi-arid regions are more resilient to droughts. In richer areas, floods are still a concern where incomplete urbanization transitions may undermine resilience to these events as they increase in intensity with the advance of climate change.

Changes in the pattern of heat waves and the impacts on Holstein cows in a subtropical region

This study aimed to evaluate the change in the air temperature and the impacts of heat waves using Climate Change Indexes on the physiological and productive responses of lactating Holstein cows. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature for 1981-2021 were used. Heat waves were determined using six Climate Change Indexes. Individual data on respiratory rate, rectal temperature, and milk yield were collected in the summers of 2018, 2019, and 2021. The temperature trend analysis showed a significant (p < 0.0001) increase in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and days in a heat wave. All six indexes increased significantly (p > 0.01). The increase in warm nights (> 20 °C) and the hottest days (> 35 °C) was the highest since 2010. Heat waves were classified into short (< 5 days) and long (> 5 days) of greater (> 36 °C) or lesser (< 36 °C) intensity. During the long and short heat waves of greater intensity, the respiratory rate increased (p < 0.05) until the fourth day. On the other hand, rectal temperature was higher (p < 0.05) from the fourth day until the end of the long heat waves. Therefore, the decrease in milk yield was significantly greater from the fourth or fifth day onwards. Finally, the evaluation method based on indexes was efficient to demonstrate the negative effects on physiological parameters and milk yield and can be indicated to evaluate heat stress in lactating cows.

A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast

South America is a vast continent characterized by diverse atmospheric phenomena and climate regimes. In this context, seasonal climate predictions are helpful for decision-making in several relevant socioeconomic segments in this territory, such as agriculture and energy generation. Thus, the present work evaluates the performance of ECMWF-SEAS5 in simulating the South American precipitation regimes by applying a non-hierarchical clustering technique. In addition, the study describes the main atmospheric systems that cause precipitation in each cluster and updates a previous work performed in South America in 2010. As a result, ECMWF-SEAS5 simulates (with good correspondence) the eight climate regimes identified in the analysis of precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Moreover, ECMWF-SEAS5 has a satisfactory ability in representing the rainfall regime in low and medium climate predictability regions, such as central and southern South America. ECMWF-SEAS5 has good performance in the climate characterization of South America and it gives us confidence in using its seasonal climate predictions throughout the continent.

Environmental risk assessment of parabens in surface water from a Brazilian river: the case of Mogi Guaçu Basin, São Paulo State, under precipitation anomalies

Parabens are preservatives widely used by industry since these compounds have antifungal properties, relative low cost, and stability over a wide pH range. This study aims to quantify and assess the environmental risks of methylparaben (MP), ethylparaben (EP), propylparaben (PP), and butylparaben (BP) in surface water from a Brazilian River, Mogi Guaçu. The State of São Paulo, including the Mogi Guaçu River region, suffered from a period of intense drought and high temperatures, which caused anomalies in river flows and water supply problems. The water samples were collected from 14 locations, along 300 km of river extension, at four different seasons. Samples were previously extracted and pre-concentrated by dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction (DLLME) and later analyzed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray ionization in tandem with mass spectrometry (UPLC-ESI-MS/MS) detector. During the sampling period, PP was detected in 89.3% of the water samples, MP in 87.5%, EP in 73.2%, and BP in 48.2%. The sum of parabens' average levels was 42.2 μg L^-1 in Winter, 41.5 μg L^-1 in Summer, 36.6 μg L^-1 in Autumn, and 31.5 μg L^-1 in Spring. These levels can be attributed to the smaller dilution effect caused by the drought period. Also, ecological risk assessment indicated that parabens could take a low, medium, and high risk for target organisms in the measured aquatic environments, especially considering Pimephales promelas where 15% of the samples do not present potential risk, 84% of samples can present medium risk and only 1% have low risk. Besides, the risks for BP are also considerably higher, when almost 40% presents for high risks and 60% for medium risks. The present study indicates worrisome threats to the water source and to allegedly protected biodiversity and, therefore, urgent actions are needed to effectively protect.

Health-related vulnerability to climate extremes in homoclimatic zones of Amazonia and Northeast region of Brazil

Amazonia and the Northeast region of Brazil exhibit the highest levels of climate vulnerability in the country. While Amazonia is characterized by an extremely hot and humid climate and hosts the world largest rainforest, the Northeast is home to sharp climatic contrasts, ranging from rainy areas along the coast to semiarid regions that are often affected by droughts. Both regions are subject to extremely high temperatures and are susceptible to many tropical diseases. This study develops a multidimensional Extreme Climate Vulnerability Index (ECVI) for Brazilian Amazonia and the Northeast region based on the Alkire-Foster method. Vulnerability is defined by three components, encompassing exposure (proxied by seven climate extreme indicators), susceptibility (proxied by sociodemographic indicators), and adaptive capacity (proxied by sanitation conditions, urbanization rate, and healthcare provision). In addition to the estimated vulnerability levels and intensity, we break down the ECVI by indicators, dimensions, and regions, in order to explore how the incidence levels of climate-sensitive infectious and parasitic diseases correlate with regional vulnerability. We use the Grade of Membership method to reclassify the mesoregions into homoclimatic zones based on extreme climatic events, so climate and population/health data can be analyzed at comparable resolutions. We find two homoclimatic zones: Extreme Rain (ER) and Extreme Drought and High Temperature (ED-HT). Vulnerability is higher in the ED-HT areas than in the ER. The contribution of each dimension to overall vulnerability levels varies by homoclimatic zone. In the ER zone, adaptive capacity (39%) prevails as the main driver of vulnerability among the three dimensions, in contrast with the approximately even dimensional contribution in the ED-HT. When we compare areas by disease incidence levels, exposure emerges as the most influential dimension. Our results suggest that climate can exacerbate existing infrastructure deficiencies and socioeconomic conditions that are correlated with tropical disease incidence in impoverished areas.

Putting fire on the map of Brazilian savanna ecoregions

The Brazilian savanna (Cerrado) is considered the most floristically diverse savanna in the world, home to more than seven thousand species. The region is a mosaic of savannas, grasslands and forests whose unique biophysical and landscape attributes are on the basis of a recent ecoregional map, paving the way to improved region-based strategies for land management actions. However, as a fire-prone ecosystem, Cerrado owes much of its distribution and ecological properties to the fire regime and contributes to an important parcel of South America burned area. Accordingly, any attempt to use ecoregion geography as a guide for management strategies should take fire into account, as an essential variable. The main aim of this study is to complement the ecoregional map of the Cerrado with information related to the fire component. Using remotely sensed information, we identify patterns and trends of fire frequency, intensity, seasonality, extent and scar size, and combine this information for each ecoregion, relying on a simple classification that summarizes the main fire characteristics over the last two decades. Results show a marked north-south fire activity gradient, with increased contributions from MATOPIBA, the latest agricultural frontier. Five ecoregions alone account for two thirds of yearly burned area. More intense fires are found in the Arc of Deforestation and eastern ecoregions, while ecoregions in MATOPIBA display decreasing fire intensity. An innovative analysis of fire scars stratified by size class shows that infrequent large fires are responsible for the majority of burned area. These large fires display positive trends over many ecoregions, whereas smaller fires, albeit more frequent, have been decreasing in number. The final fire classification scheme shows well defined spatially-aggregated groups, where trends are found to be the key factor to evaluate fire within their regional contexts. Results presented here provide new insights to improve fire management strategies under a changing climate.

Intraspecific Morphological Variation in the Dragonfly Erythrodiplax Media (Odonata: Libellulidae) Among South American Grassland Physiognomies

We assessed the intraspecific morphological variation in Erythrodiplax media Borror 1942 (Odonata, Libellulidae) among grassland physiognomies ("Coastal," "Highland," and "Steppic") in the South Brazilian Campos. We measured six morphological traits (total body length, thorax height, length, and width of the fore- and hindwings) from 90 specimens (60 males and 45 females). We tested the effect of the grassland type on the set of traits using one-way MANOVA and principal component analysis (PCA) (separately for each sex). Grassland physiognomy affected the morphology of males and females. In both sexes, the PCA mostly opposed the specimens of the Coastal from the Highland and Steppic grasslands. The first PCA axis separated specimens according to body lengths, thorax heights, and wing width, while the second PCA axis opposed specimens according to wing length and thorax height from specimens with broader wings and longer body lengths. Males from the Coastal had longer body lengths and shorter thorax heights than Highland and Steppic grasslands, while males from the Steppic had longer fore- and hindwings than specimens from the Coastal and Highland grasslands. Females from the Coastal had significantly shorter forewings than specimens from the Steppic grasslands and shorter hindwings than Highland grasslands. Our results are likely explained by the differences in climate and habitat complexity among grassland types and indicate that the processes driving odonate performance vary among grassland biotopes. This study potentially indicates that dragonflies are sensitive to changes in the vegetation structure in South American subtropical grasslands.