Dynamic Thromboembolic Risk Modelling to Target Appropriate Preventative Strategies for Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Individualized dynamic risk assessment for multiple myeloma

Background

Individualized treatment decisions for patients with multiple myeloma (MM) requires accurate risk stratification that takes into account patient-specific consequences of genetic abnormalities and tumor microenvironment on disease outcome and therapy responsiveness.

Methods

Previously, SYstems Genetic Network AnaLysis (SYGNAL) of multi-omics tumor profiles from 881 MM patients generated the mmSYGNAL network, which uncovered different causal and mechanistic drivers of genetic programs associated with disease progression across MM subtypes. Here, we have trained a machine learning (ML) algorithm on activities of mmSYGNAL programs within individual patient tumor samples to develop a risk classification scheme for MM that significantly outperformed cytogenetics, International Staging System, and multi-gene biomarker panels in predicting risk of PFS across four independent patient cohorts.

Results

We demonstrate that, unlike other tests, mmSYGNAL can accurately predict disease progression risk at primary diagnosis, pre- and post-transplant and even after multiple relapses, making it useful for individualized dynamic risk assessment throughout the disease trajectory.

Conclusion

mmSYGNAL provides improved individualized risk stratification that accounts for a patient's distinct set of genetic abnormalities and can monitor risk longitudinally as each patient's disease characteristics change.

A systematic review of risk prediction model of venous thromboembolism for patients with lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) increases the risk of death or adverse outcomes in patients with lung cancer. Therefore, early identification and treatment of high-risk groups of VTE have been the research focus. In this systematic review, the risk assessment tools of VTE in patients with lung cancer were systematically analyzed and evaluated to provide a reference for VTE management.

METHODS

Relevant studies were retrieved from major English databases (The Cochrane Library, Embase, Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Medline) and Chinese databases (China National Knowledge Infrastructure [CNKI] and WanFang Data) until July 2023 and extracted by two researchers. This systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (no. CRD42023409748).

RESULTS

Finally, two prospective cohort studies and four retrospective cohort studies were included from 2019. There was a high risk of bias in all included studies according to the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment tool (PROBAST). In the included studies, Cox and logistic regression were used to construct models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the model ranged from 0.670 to 0.904, and the number of predictors ranged from 4 to 11. The D-dimer index was included in five studies, but significant differences existed in optimal cutoff values from 0.0005 mg/L to 2.06 mg/L. Then, three studies validated the model externally, two studies only validated the model internally, and only one study validated the model using a combination of internal and external validation.

CONCLUSION

VTE risk prediction models for patients with lung cancer have received attention for no more than 5 years. The included model shows a good predictive effect and may help identify the risk population of VTE at an early stage. In the future, it is necessary to improve data modeling and statistical analysis methods, develop predictive models with good performance and low risk of bias, and focus on external validation and recalibration of models.

Plasma tissue factor activity in lung cancer patients predicts venous thromboembolism and poor overall survival

Background

Biomarkers to identify lung cancer (LC) patients with high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) are needed.

Objectives

To evaluate the usefulness of plasma tissue factor activity (TFA) and D-dimer levels for the prediction of VTE and overall survival in patients with LC.

Methods

In a prospective multicenter observational cohort of consecutive LC patients, TFA and D-dimer levels were measured at diagnosis before any cancer treatment (V1) and between 8 and 12 weeks after diagnosis (V2).

Results

Among 302 patients, 38 (12.6%) experienced VTE within the first year after diagnosis. V1-TFA and V1-D-dimer levels were significantly (P = .02) higher in patients who presented VTE within 3 months than in patients without VTE: V1-TFA was 2.02 (25th-75th percentiles, 0.20-4.01) vs 0.49 (0.20-3.09) ng/mL and V1-D-dimer was 1.42 (0.64-4.40) vs 0.69 (0.39-1.53) μg/mL, respectively. Cutoffs of 1.92 ng/mL for TFA and 1.26 μg/mL for D-dimer could discriminate both groups of patients. In multivariate analysis, V1-TFA > 1.92 ng/mL was the only significant predictor of VTE risk at 1 year (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.06-4.16; P = .03). V2-TFA, quantified in 251 patients, decreased significantly compared with V1-TFA (0.20 vs 0.56 ng/mL, P < .05), but a V2-TFA level > 0.77 ng/mL could predict VTE in the following 3 months. Median overall survival was worse for patients with V1-TFA > 1.92 ng/mL (14.6 vs 23.8 months) and V1-D-dimer > 1.26 μg/mL (13.8 vs 24 months, P < .001).

Conclusion

High plasma TFA levels are associated with the occurrence of VTE within the next 3 months after each visit (V1 or V2) and poor survival.

Models for predicting venous thromboembolism in ambulatory patients with lung cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with lung cancer is relatively high, and risk stratification models are vital for the targeted application of thromboprophylaxis. We aimed to review VTE risk prediction models that have been developed in patients with lung cancer and evaluated their performance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Twenty-four eligible studies involving 123,493 patients were included. The pooled incidence of VTE within 12 months was 11 % (95 % CI 8 %-14 %). With the identified four VTE risk assessment tools, meta-analyses did not show a significant discriminatory capability of stratifying VTE risk for Khorana, PROTECHT and CONKO scores. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the Khorana score were 24 % (95 % CI 11 %-44 %) and 84 % (95 % CI 73 %-91 %) at the 3-point cut-off, and 43 % (95 % CI 35 %-52 %) and 61 % (95 % CI 52 %-69 %) at the 2-point cut-off. However, a COMPASS-CAT score of ≥ 7 points indicated a significantly high VTE risk, with a RR of 4.68 (95 % CI 1.05-20.80).

CONCLUSIONS

The Khorana score lacked discriminatory capability in identifying patients with lung cancer at high VTE risk, regardless of the cut-off value. The COMPASS-CAT score had better performance, but further validation is needed. The results indicate the need for robust VTE risk assessment tools specifically designed and validated for lung cancer patients. Future research should include relevant biomarkers as important predictors and consider the combined use of risk tools. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021245907.

Development and Validation of a Modified Khorana Score for Predicting Venous Thromboembolism in Newly Diagnosed Stage IV Lung Cancer

We aimed to establish an effective model to identify metastatic lung cancer patients at high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Patients diagnosed with stage IV lung cancer from January 2011 to June 2019 were included in the development cohort; those recruited from July 2019 to June 2021 were included in the validation cohort. Univariable and multivariable analyses determined the risk factors for VTE. Then we assessed the value for predicting VTE of the Khorana score and modified Khorana score in these two cohorts; 575 patients were included in the development cohort, and 202 patients in the validation cohort. Adenocarcinoma, D-dimer, and the Khorana score were independent risk factors for VTE. In the development cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the Khorana score in patients with newly diagnosed stage IV lung cancer was 0.598 (95% CI, 0.512-0.684). The AUC of the modified Khorana score was 0.747 (95% CI, 0.689-0.805). The difference was statistically significant (P <.001). The AUC of the modified Khorana score in the validation cohort was 0.763 (95% CI, 0.661-0.865). The modified Khorana score is more able to accurately predict VTE in patients with newly diagnosed stage IV lung cancer than the Khorana score.

Risk-Directed Ambulatory Thromboprophylaxis in Lung and Gastrointestinal Cancers: The TARGET-TP Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Thromboprophylaxis for individuals receiving systemic anticancer therapies has proven to be effective. Potential to maximize benefits relies on improved risk-directed strategies, but existing risk models underperform in cohorts with lung and gastrointestinal cancers.

Objective

To assess clinical benefits and safety of biomarker-driven thromboprophylaxis and to externally validate a biomarker thrombosis risk assessment model for individuals with lung and gastrointestinal cancers.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This open-label, phase 3 randomized clinical trial (Targeted Thromboprophylaxis in Ambulatory Patients Receiving Anticancer Therapies [TARGET-TP]) conducted from June 2018 to July 2021 (with 6-month primary follow-up) included adults aged 18 years or older commencing systemic anticancer therapies for lung or gastrointestinal cancers at 1 metropolitan and 4 regional hospitals in Australia. Thromboembolism risk assessment based on fibrinogen and d-dimer levels stratified individuals into low-risk (observation) and high-risk (randomized) cohorts.

Interventions

High-risk patients were randomized 1:1 to receive enoxaparin, 40 mg, subcutaneously daily for 90 days (extending up to 180 days according to ongoing risk) or no thromboprophylaxis (control).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was objectively confirmed thromboembolism at 180 days. Key secondary outcomes included bleeding, survival, and risk model validation.

Results

Of 782 eligible adults, 328 (42%) were enrolled in the trial (median age, 65 years [range, 30-88 years]; 176 male [54%]). Of these participants, 201 (61%) had gastrointestinal cancer, 127 (39%) had lung cancer, and 132 (40%) had metastatic disease; 200 (61%) were high risk (100 in each group), and 128 (39%) were low risk. In the high-risk cohort, thromboembolism occurred in 8 individuals randomized to enoxaparin (8%) and 23 control individuals (23%) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.31; 95% CI, 0.15-0.70; P = .005; number needed to treat, 6.7). Thromboembolism occurred in 10 low-risk individuals (8%) (high-risk control vs low risk: HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.58-6.99; P = .002). Risk model sensitivity was 70%, and specificity was 61%. The rate of major bleeding was low, occurring in 1 participant randomized to enoxaparin (1%), 2 in the high-risk control group (2%), and 3 in the low-risk group (2%) (P = .88). Six-month mortality was 13% in the enoxaparin group vs 26% in the high-risk control group (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.24-0.93; P = .03) and 7% in the low-risk group (vs high-risk control: HR, 4.71; 95% CI, 2.13-10.42; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this randomized clinical trial of individuals with lung and gastrointestinal cancers who were stratified by risk score according to thrombosis risk, risk-directed thromboprophylaxis reduced thromboembolism with a desirable number needed to treat, without safety concerns, and with reduced mortality. Individuals at low risk avoided unnecessary intervention. The findings suggest that biomarker-driven, risk-directed primary thromboprophylaxis is an appropriate approach in this population.

Trial Registration

ANZCTR Identifier: ACTRN12618000811202.

A New Risk Prediction Model for Venous Thromboembolism and Death in Ambulatory Lung Cancer Patients

(1) Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a frequent complication in ambulatory lung cancer patients during chemotherapy and is associated with increased mortality. (2) Methods: We analyzed 568 newly diagnosed metastatic lung cancer patients prospectively enrolled in the HYPERCAN study. Blood samples collected before chemotherapy were tested for thrombin generation (TG) and a panel of hemostatic biomarkers. The Khorana risk score (KRS), new-Vienna CATS, PROTECHT, and CONKO risk assessment models (RAMs) were applied. (3) Results: Within 6 months, the cumulative incidences of VTE and mortality were 12% and 29%, respectively. Patients with VTE showed significantly increased levels of D-dimer, FVIII, prothrombin fragment 1 + 2, and TG. D-dimer and ECOG performance status were identified as independent risk factors for VTE and mortality by multivariable analysis and utilized to generate a risk score that provided a cumulative incidence of VTE of 6% vs. 25%, death of 19% vs. 55%, and in the low- vs. high-risk group, respectively (p < 0.001). While all published RAMs significantly stratified patients for risk of death, only the CATS and CONKO were able to stratify patients for VTE. (4) Conclusions: A new prediction model was generated to stratify lung cancer patients for VTE and mortality risk, where other published RAMs failed.

Management of venous thromboembolism in patients with lung cancer: a state-of-the-art review

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common and life-threatening in patients with lung cancer. Management of VTE is critical for patients with lung cancer. Risk assessment, thromboprophylaxis and treatment of VTE constitute the core issues of VTE management in patients with lung cancer. Although its overall principles should follow recommendations in authoritative guidelines, VTE management in patients with lung cancer may be slightly special in some specific aspects. Despite the extensive validation of Khorana score for patients with all cancer types, its value in VTE risk assessment of patients with lung cancer is controversial. It is important to determine the VTE risk assessment score that can accurately and specifically assess the VTE risk of patients with lung cancer. Clinical practice patterns of thromboprophylaxis may vary by cancer types, since different sites of cancer may have different levels of VTE risk. To understand the thromboprophylaxis specific for lung cancer is of vital importance for patients with lung cancer. Although it is essential to comply with authoritative guidelines, the duration and timing of initiation of thromboprophylaxis in surgical patients with lung cancer may need further study. Taken together, the purpose of this review is to provide an overview of state-of-the-art VTE stewardship specific for patients with lung cancer.

Derivation and External Validation of a Risk Assessment Model of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Chinese Patients

AIM

To develop and validate a risk assessment model (RAM) of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized Chinese patients.

METHODS

We reviewed data from 300 patients with VTE and 300 non-VTE patients at Beijing Shijitan Hospital. The risk factors related to VTE were analyzed, and the VTE RAM (Shijitan (SJT) version) was developed according to the weight of each risk factor. A total of 407 patients with VTE and 533 non-VTE patients were enrolled for external validation. The sensitivity, specificity, Youden index, receiver operating curve (ROC), and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of VTE RAM (SJT version) compared with Caprini RAM and Padua RAM.

RESULTS

The VTE RAM (SJT version) contained six risk factors (age >60 years, lower limb edema, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), central venous catheterization (CVC), VTE history, and D dimer). In the external validation group, for medical patients, the AUC value of SJT RAM (0.82 ± 0.03) is significantly higher than Caprini RAM (0.76 ± 0.04; P < 0.05), SJT RAM has a higher sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index than Caprini RAM (P < 0.05), which means that the SJT RAM has a much better predictive value than Caprini RAM. While SJT RAM and Padua RAM have the similar predictive value for medical patients (P > 0.05). For surgical patients, the AUC value of SJT RAM (0.72 ± 0.04) is significantly higher than the value of Padua RAM (0.66 ± 0.04; P < 0.05), SJT RAM has a higher sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index than Padua RAM (P < 0.05), which shows that the VTE RAM has better predictive value than Padua RAM. While SJT RAM and Caprini RAM have the similar predictive value for surgical patients (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The SJT RAM derived from general hospitalized Chinese patients will be time-saving for physicians and has a better predictive ability for patients at risk of VTE.

The association between ROS1 rearrangement and risk of thromboembolic events in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a multicenter study in China

Background

According to several studies, ROS1 rearrangement is associated with thrombotic risk in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, there is no clear understanding of the predictors and prognostic impact of thromboembolic events (TEEs) in patients with advanced ROS1 rearrangement NSCLC.

Methods

A total of 47 newly diagnosed advanced NSCLC patients with ROS1 rearrangement from four Chinese hospitals were retrospectively included and were evaluated for TEEs incidence, characteristics, predictors, as well as response to therapies and overall survival (OS).

Results

Of the 47 enrolled patients, 23.4% (n = 11) patients developed TEEs. Among them, 7 of 11 patients (64%) developed pulmonary embolism (PE), and 5 patients (45%) experienced recurrent TEEs. In multivariate analysis, D-dimer was associated with the occurrence of TEEs in ROS1 rearranged NSCLC (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08–1.23, P < 0.001). Median progression-free survival (PFS) after first-line ROS1 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) therapy was significantly longer in patients without TEEs than in those developing TEEs (26 months vs. 12 months, P = 0.0383). Furthermore, patients with TEEs had a shorter OS period than those without TEEs (29.8 months vs. not estimable, P = 0.0647).

Conclusion

The results of this multicenter study indicated that advanced NSCLC patients with ROS1 rearrangement were more likely to experience PE and TEEs recurrence. And patients with TEEs tended to have a worse prognosis. Furthermore, an elevated D-dimer level suggested a hypercoagulable state in NSCLC patients with ROS1 rearrangement.

Standardization of risk prediction model reporting in cancer-associated thrombosis: Communication from the ISTH SSC subcommittee on hemostasis and malignancy

Since the development of the Khorana score to predict risk of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE), many modified and de novo risk prediction models (RPMs) have been proposed. Comparison of the prognostic performance across models requires comprehensive reporting and standardized methods for model development, validation and evaluation. To improve the standardization of RPM reporting, the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) tool was published in 2015. To better understand the quality of reporting and development of RPMs for cancer-associated VTE, we performed a literature search of published RPMs and assessed each model using the TRIPOD checklist. Our results yielded 29 RPMs for which 30 items were evaluated. There was a non-significant (p = 0.15) improvement in reporting of the 30 items in the post-TRIPOD era (81%) versus the pre-TRIPOD era (75%). Of seven items (title, sample size, missing data handling, baseline demographics, methods and results for model performance, and supplemental resources) with the lowest reporting in the pre-TRIPOD era (<70%), there was an average improvement of 22% in the post-TRIPOD era. Only two of the 22 studies published in the post-TRIPOD era acknowledged compliance with TRIPOD. Informed by the results of this assessment, the Scientific and Standardization Committee (SSC) Subcommittee on Hemostasis & Malignancy of the International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis (ISTH) advocates for standardization of four key elements of RPMs for cancer-associated VTE: (1) inclusion of the TRIPOD checklist, (2) clear definition of the derivation population, with justification of sample size, (3) clear definition of predictors, and (4) external validation prior to implementation.

Construction of Risk Assessment Model for Venous Thromboembolism After Colorectal Cancer Surgery: A Chinese Single-Center Study

Objective

A retrospective study was carried out to construct a postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment model (RAM) applicable for Chinese colorectal cancer patients.

Methods

541 Patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery from June 2019 to May 2020 at Sir-Run-Run-Shaw Hospital affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine were enrolled in this study. Multi-factor analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors of VTE. A novel RAM of VTE which we called Sir-Run-Run-Shaw VTE RAM were constructed basing on the independent risk factors. Another study cohort consisted of 287 colorectal cancer patients underwent surgery from January 2021 to June 2021was used for model evaluation.

Results

The incidence of VTE after colorectal cancer surgery was 12.0%(65/541). Among the 65 VTE Patients, DVT accounted for 92.3% (60/65) and DVT + PE accounted for 7.7% (5/65). Multi-factor analysis showed that age ≥ 69 years ( P < 0.01), preoperative plasma D-dimer ≥ 0.49 mg/L ( P = .004), stage IV of cancer ( P = .018) and transfusion ( P = .004) are independent risk factors of VTE after surgery. Sir-Run-Run-Shaw VTE RAM includes the above 4 factors, and the total score is 4 points. The score of the low, medium and high risk groups are 0, 1 and ≥2 points. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of Sir-Run-Run-Shaw VTE RAM is 0.769, while Caprini RAM is 0.656. There is statistical difference between the two risk score tables ( Z = 2.337, P = .0195).

Conclusion

A VTE RAM is constructed basing on a single center retrospective study. This score table may be applicable for Chinese patients with colorectal cancer surgery.

Validation of a modified Caprini risk assessment model in lung cancer patients undergoing surgery: Results of a multicenter cross-sectional observational study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Lung cancer patients slated for surgery are at high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Precise risk assessment is necessary for providing proper thromboprophylaxis and reducing morbidity and mortality of VTE.

METHODS

A multicenter, observational, cross-sectional cohort study, involving patients with primary lung cancer undergoing surgery, was carried out from August 2016 to December 2019. All patients were assessed according to the Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) and a modified scoring system incorporating elevated D-dimer and new stratification of surgical time. The endpoint was confirmed VTE or patient discharge.

RESULTS

Out of 1205 patients, 87 (7.2%) were diagnosed with VTE. The area under the curve of modified scores for VTE was 0.759, which was larger than that of the original one (0.589) (p < 0.05). By modified Caprini scoring system, a higher score was associated with increased VTE risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.345; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.197-1.512; p < 0.001), and there was an increased OR of 4.090 (95% CI, 2.472-6.768, p < 0.001) for VTE in high-risk category patients.

CONCLUSION

Modified Caprini RAM showed an improved prediction of high-risk patients with an elevated likelihood of postoperative VTE compared to the original one.

Optimal authoritative risk assessment score of Cancer-associated venous thromboembolism for hospitalized medical patients with lung Cancer

Background

Cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common in patients with primary lung cancer. It has been understudied which authoritative risk assessment score of cancer-associated VTE is optimal for the assessment of VTE development in hospitalized medical patients with lung cancer.

Methods

Patients with lung cancer who had undergone computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), compression ultrasonography (CUS) of lower and upper extremities, and/or planar ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) scan to confirm the presence or absence of VTE during a medical hospitalization were retrospectively reviewed. Based on the actual prevalence of VTE among all patients, the possibility of VTE were reassessed with the Khorana score, the PROTECHT score, the CONKO score, the ONKOTEV score, the COMPASS-CAT score, and the CATS/MICA score, to compare their assessment accuracy for VTE development.

Results

A total of 1263 patients with lung cancer were incorporated into the final analysis. With respect to assessment efficiency for VTE occurrence, the scores with adjusted agreement from highest to lowest were the ONKOTEV score (78.6%), the PROTECHT score (73.4%), the CONKO score (72.1%), the COMPASS-CAT score (71.7%), the Khorana score (70.9%), and the CATS/MICA score (60.3%). The ONKOTEV score had the highest Youden index which was 0.68, followed by the PROTECHT score (0.58), the COMPASS-CAT score (0.56), the CONKO score (0.55), the Khorana score (0.53), and the CATS/MICA score (0.23).

Conclusions

Among the Khorana score, the PROTECHT score, the CONKO score, the ONKOTEV score, the COMPASS-CAT score, and the CATS/MICA score which are approved by authoritative guidelines, the ONKOTEV score is optimal for the assessment of VTE development in hospitalized medical patients with lung cancer.

Models for predicting venous thromboembolism in ambulatory patients with lung cancer: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common complication in patients with cancer and has a determining role in the disease prognosis. The risk is significantly increased with certain types of cancer, such as lung cancer. Partly due to difficulties in managing haemorrhage in outpatient settings, anticoagulant prophylaxis is only recommended for ambulatory patients at high risk of VTE. This requires a precise VTE risk assessment in individual patients. Although VTE risk assessment models have been developed and updated in recent years, there are conflicting reports on the effectiveness of such risk prediction models in patient management. The aim of this systematic review is to gain a better understanding of the available VTE risk assessment tools for ambulatory patients with lung cancer and compare their predictive performance.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A systematic review will be conducted using MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Scopus and Web of Science databases from inception to 30 September 2021, to identify all reports published in English describing VTE risk prediction models which have included adult ambulatory patients with primary lung cancer for model development and/or validation. Two independent reviewers will conduct article screening, study selection, data extraction and quality assessment of the primary studies. Any disagreements will be referred to a third researcher to resolve. The included studies will be assessed for risk of bias and applicability. The Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies will be used for data extraction and appraisal. Data from similar studies will be used for meta-analysis to determine the incidence of VTE and the performance of the risk models.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is not required. We will disseminate the results in a peer-reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021245907.

Risk Factors and Prediction Models for Venous Thromboembolism in Ambulatory Patients with Lung Cancer

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant cause of mortality in patients with lung cancer. Despite the availability of a wide range of anticoagulants to help prevent thrombosis, thromboprophylaxis in ambulatory patients is a challenge due to its associated risk of haemorrhage. As a result, anticoagulation is only recommended in patients with a relatively high risk of VTE. Efforts have been made to develop predictive models for VTE risk assessment in cancer patients, but the availability of a reliable predictive model for ambulate patients with lung cancer is unclear. We have analysed the latest information on this topic, with a focus on the lung cancer-related risk factors for VTE, and risk prediction models developed and validated in this group of patients. The existing risk models, such as the Khorana score, the PROTECHT score and the CONKO score, have shown poor performance in external validations, failing to identify many high-risk individuals. Some of the newly developed and updated models may be promising, but their further validation is needed.

A modified Khorana score as a risk assessment tool for predicting venous thromboembolism in newly diagnosed advanced lung cancer

The aim of this study was to evaluate the Khorana score and modified Khorana score as risk assessment tools for predicting the development of VTE in newly diagnosed advanced lung cancer. Information on the clinical data and laboratory indicators of the study group between 2014 and 2018 and the validation group between January 2019 to June 2020 of newly diagnosed advanced lung cancer patients at The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Science and Technology was collected. We conducted an analysis of the risk factors affecting VTE development and the predictive risk value of the Khorana score and the modified Khorana score for VTE in newly diagnosed advanced lung cancer patients. A total of 124 patients were included in the study group. D-dimer is an independent risk factor for VTE in newly diagnosed advanced lung cancer patients (OR 1.620, 95% CI 1.220, 2.152, p = 0.001). The best cutoff value of D -dimer for the prediction of VTE development risk was 1.14 mg/L. The AUC of the Khorana score to predict the occurrence risk of VTE in newly diagnosed advanced lung cancer patients was 0.706; when the best cutoff value was 2, the sensitivity was 70.83%, and the specificity was 65%. The AUC of the modified Khorana score was 0.870; when the cutoff value was 2, the sensitivity was 100%, and the specificity was 50%. A total of 237 patients were included in the validation group, the AUC of the modified Khorana score for predicting the occurrence risk of VTE was 0.875; when the cutoff value was 2, the sensitivity was 100%, and the specificity was 52.1%. The modified Khorana score after incorporating D-dimer has a higher predictive value for the occurrence risk of VTE in newly diagnosed lung cancer patients; when the score ≥ 2, its sensitivity is higher, and it can more fully identify high-risk groups of VTE.

D-Dimer Enhances Risk-Targeted Thromboprophylaxis in Ambulatory Patients with Cancer

BACKGROUND

Thromboprophylaxis for ambulatory patients with cancer is effective, although uncertainties remain on who should be targeted. Using D-dimer values from individuals enrolled to the AVERT trial, we sought to identify and validate a more efficient venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk threshold for thromboprophylaxis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The AVERT trial compared thromboprophylaxis with apixaban with placebo among patients with cancer with a Khorana Risk Score ≥2. The D-dimer measured at randomization was used to calculate an individualized 6-month VTE risk using the validated CATScore. A modified intention-to-treat analysis was used to assess efficacy (VTE) and safety (major and overall bleeding) in the (a) complete cohort and (b) ≥8% and < 8% 6-month VTE risk thresholds.

RESULTS

Five hundred seventy-four patients were randomized in the AVERT trial; 466 (81%) with baseline D-dimer were included in the study. Two hundred thirty-seven subjects received apixaban; 229 received placebo. In the complete cohort, there were 13 (5.5%) VTE events in the apixaban arm compared with 26 (11.4%) events in the placebo arm (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.49 [0.25-0.95], p < .05). Number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one VTE = 17. Eighty-two (35%) and 72 (31%) patients in the apixaban and placebo arms, respectively, had a 6-month VTE risk ≥8%. In this subgroup, 7 (8.4%) VTE events occurred with apixaban and 19 (26.3%) events with placebo (aHR 0.33 [0.14-0.81], p < .05), NNT = 6. Individuals with a VTE risk <8% derived no benefit from apixaban thromboprophylaxis (aHR 0.89 [0.30-2.65), p = .84). Increased rates of overall bleeding were observed with apixaban in both the complete (aHR 2.11 [1.09-4.09], p < .05) and ≥ 8% predicted risk cohorts (aHR 2.87 [0.91-9.13], p = .07).

CONCLUSION

A 6-month VTE risk threshold of ≥8% increases the efficiency of risk-targeted thromboprophylaxis in ambulatory patients with cancer.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Ambulatory patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). A Khorana Risk Score (KRS) ≥2 is currently the suggested threshold for thromboprophylaxis. Using baseline D-dimer values from individuals enrolled to the AVERT trial, this retrospective validation study identifies a 6-month VTE risk of ≥8% as a more efficient threshold for thromboprophylaxis. At this threshold, the number needed to treat to prevent one VTE is 6, compared with 17 when using a KRS ≥2. Conversely, individuals with a predicted risk of <8% derive no clinical benefit from thromboprophylaxis. Future prospective studies should validate this threshold for outpatient thromboprophylaxis.

Dynamics of D-dimer in non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving radical surgery and its association with postoperative venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) occurs at a high rate after lung cancer surgery and can be attributed to various clinical risk factors. Here, we aimed to determine whether early detection of perioperative D-dimer and risk-stratified cutoff values would improve the diagnostic efficacy of VTE.

METHODS

In this case-control study, D-dimer results were acquired from 171 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients preoperatively and at the first, third, and fifth day after surgery. VTE was confirmed by Doppler ultrasonography and computer tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA). Repeated measures ANOVA was used to analyze how D-dimer changed with time and the effects of risk factors on D-dimer levels. We then compared sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value, using both adjusted and unadjusted cutoff values.

RESULTS

VTE occurred in 23 patients (13.5%) of the study population. D-dimer levels increased unsustainably after lung cancer surgery (P < 0.001) due to a trough on the third day, and patients who had undergone thoracotomy (P < 0.001) and those at a more advanced tumor stage (P = 0.037) had higher D-dimer levels. Area under the curve of D-dimer was greatest on the third day (0.762 [P < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.643-0.882]). Applying stratified cutoff values improved the specificity in the video-assisted thoracoscopy surgery (VATS) (P = 0.004) and thoracotomy groups (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

D-dimer levels elevated with fluctuation in NSCLC patients after surgery. Surgical options and tumor stages had an impact on D-dimer levels. With regard to VTE diagnosis, stratified cutoff values by these two factors showed better accuracy compared with a collective one..

KEY POINTS

SIGNIFICANT FINDINGS OF THE STUDY: The changing pattern of perioperative D-dimer levels in NSCLC patients who received surgical therapy in a major teaching hospital in Beijing, China was revealed.

WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS

Risk-stratified D-dimer cutoff values adjusted to surgical methods and disease stages would benefit the exclusion of postoperative venous thromboembolism.

Dynamic assessment of venous thromboembolism risk in patients with cancer by longitudinal D-Dimer analysis: A prospective study

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a frequent complication of cancer. Elevated D-dimer is associated with an increased risk of cancer-associated VTE. Whether changes in D-dimer over time harbor additional prognostic information that may be exploited clinically for dynamic prediction of VTE is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the potential role of longitudinal D-dimer trajectories for personalized prediction of cancer-associated VTE.

PATIENTS/METHODS

A total of 167 patients with active malignancy were prospectively enrolled (gastrointestinal: n = 59 [35%], lung: n = 56 [34%], brain: n = 50 [30%], others: n = 2 [1%]; metastatic disease: n = 74 [44%]). D-dimer (median = 0.8 µg/mL [25th-75th percentile: 0.4-2.0]) was measured at baseline and during 602 monthly follow-up visits. Joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event data were implemented to quantify the association between D-dimer trajectories and prospective risk of VTE.

RESULTS

VTE occurred in 20 patients (250-day VTE risk = 12.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.8-18.5). D-dimer increased by 34%/month (0.47 µg/mL/month, 95% CI, 0.22-0.72, P < .0001) in patients who developed VTE, but remained constant in patients who did not develop VTE (change/month = -0.06 µg/mL, 95% CI, -0.15 to 0.02, P = .121). In joint modeling, a doubling of the D-dimer trajectory was associated with a 2.8-fold increase in the risk of VTE (hazard ratio = 2.78, 95% CI, 1.69-4.58, P < .0001). This finding was independent of established VTE risk factors. Highly personalized, dynamic predictions of VTE conditional on individual patients' D-dimer trajectories could be obtained.

CONCLUSIONS

D-dimer increases before the onset of cancer-associated VTE, but remains constant over time in patients without VTE. This study represents proof-of-concept that longitudinal trajectories of D-Dimer may advance the personalized assessment of VTE risk in the oncologic setting.

Could venous thromboembolism and major bleeding be indicators of lung cancer mortality? A nationwide database study

Background

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is highly prevalent in cancer patients and can cause severe morbidity. VTE treatment is essential, but anticoagulation increases the risk of major bleeding. The purpose was to evaluate the impact of VTE and major bleeding on survival and to identify significant risk factors for these events in lung cancer patients.

Methods

Data were extracted from a permanent sample of the French national health information system (including hospital and out-of-hospital care) from 2009 to 2016. All episodes of VTE and major bleeding events within one year after cancer diagnosis were identified. A Cox model was used to analyse the effect of VTE and major bleeding on the patients’ one-year survival. VTE and major bleeding risk factors were analysed with a Fine and Gray survival model.

Results

Among the 2553 included patients with lung cancer, 208 (8%) had a VTE episode in the year following diagnosis and 341 (13%) had major bleeding. Almost half of the patients died during follow-up. Fifty-six (60%) of the patients presenting with pulmonary embolism (PE) died, 48 (42%) of the patients presenting with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) alone died and 186 (55%) of those presenting with a major bleeding event died. The risk of death was significantly increased following PE and major bleeding events. VTE concomitant with cancer diagnosis was associated with an increased risk of VTE recurrence beyond 6 months after the first VTE event (sHR = 4.07 95% CI: 1.57–10.52). Most major bleeding events did not appear to be related to treatment.

Conclusion

VTE is frequent after a diagnosis of lung cancer, but so are major bleeding events. Both PE and major bleeding are associated with an increased risk of death and could be indicators of lung cancer mortality.

Impact of ALK Rearrangement on Venous and Arterial Thrombotic Risk in NSCLC

INTRODUCTION

Clinical venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk prediction scores, such as the Khorana Risk Score, perform poorly in NSCLC, possibly because the tumor molecular subtype is omitted. Previous studies suggest a possible increased VTE risk in ALK-rearranged NSCLC, but data are conflicting.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with advanced-stage NSCLC diagnosed between 2009 and 2019. Multivariable, time-to-event analyses modeling the risk of first venous or arterial thrombosis in ALK and non-ALK NSCLC groups, controlling for covariates known to impact thrombosis risk (15 in VTE model and 17 in arterial thrombosis model), were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression and competing-risks regression. Multivariable negative binomial regression modeled the total VTE rate.

RESULTS

A total of 422 patients with ALK-rearranged and 385 patients with non-ALK-rearranged NSCLC were included. Patients with an ALK rearrangement were younger, had better performance status, and had lower rates of most thrombotic risk factors but had significantly higher rates of initial VTE (42.7% versus 28.6%, p < 0.0001), recurrent VTE (13.5% versus 3.1%, p < 0.0001), and similar rates of arterial thrombosis (5.0% versus 4.4%, p = 0.71) compared with non-ALK NSCLC. VTE risk attributable to ALK was significant (Cox model: hazard ratio 3.70, [95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.51-5.44, p < 0.001], competing risks: subhazard ratio 3.91 [95% CI: 2.55-5.99, p < 0.001]). Negative binomial modeling revealed higher VTE rates in patients with an ALK rearrangement (incidence rate ratio 2.47 [95% CI: 1.72-3.55, p < 0.001]). The OR for recurrent VTE was 4.85 (95% CI: 2.60-9.52, p < 0.001). Arterial thrombosis risk attributable to ALK was significant (Cox model: hazard ratio 3.15 [95% CI: 1.18-8.37, p = 0.021], competing risks: subhazard ratio 2.80 [95% CI: 1.06-7.43, p = 0.038]).

CONCLUSIONS

In time-to-event analyses controlling for thrombosis risk factors, the ALK rearrangement conferred a fourfold increase in VTE risk and a threefold increase in arterial thrombosis risk in NSCLC. These patients may benefit from pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis.

Do we need prophylactic anticoagulation in ambulatory patients with lung cancer? A review

Venous thromboembolism is a common complication of malignancy. Lung cancer is considered one of the most thrombogenic cancer types. Primary thromboprophylaxis is not currently recommended for all ambulatory patients with active cancer. In the present narrative review we aim to summarize recent data on the safety and efficacy of primary thromboprophylaxis as well as on venous thromboembolism risk assessment, focusing on ambulatory patients with lung cancer. A potential benefit from prophylactic anticoagulation with low molecular weight heparins in terms of venous thromboembolism risk reduction and increased overall survival in patients with lung cancer, without a significant increase in bleeding risk, has been reported in several studies. Recent studies also reveal promising results of direct oral anticoagulants regarding their efficacy as primary thromboprophylaxis in patients with cancer, including those with lung cancer. However, the use of different study methodologies and the heterogeneity of study populations among the trials limit the extraction of definite results. More randomized, controlled trials, restricted to a well-characterized population of patients with lung cancer, are greatly anticipated. The use of risk assessment tools for stratification of venous thromboembolic risk is warranted. The development of an accurate and practical risk assessment model for patients with lung cancer represents an unmet need.

External Validation of a Venous Thromboembolic Risk Score for Cancer Outpatients with Solid Tumors: The COMPASS-CAT Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment Model

BACKGROUND

Current risk assessment models (RAMs) for prediction of venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk in the outpatient cancer population have shown poor predictive value in many of the most common cancers. The Comparison of Methods for Thromboembolic Risk Assessment with Clinical Perceptions and AwareneSS in Real Life Patients-Cancer Associated Thrombosis (COMPASS-CAT) RAM was derived in this patient population and predicted patients at high risk for VTE even after initiation of chemotherapy. We sought to externally validate this RAM.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients aged ≥18 years who presented to a tertiary care center between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2016, with invasive breast, ovarian, lung, or colorectal cancers were included. The COMPASS-CAT RAM was applied using our health system's tumor registry and variables that were identified by International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems-9 and -10 codes of the electronic health record and independent chart review. The primary endpoint at 6-month study follow-up was documented VTE.

RESULTS

A total of 3,814 patients were included. Documented VTE at 6-month follow-up occurred in 5.85% of patients. Patients stratified into low/intermediate- and high-risk groups had VTE rates of 2.27% and 6.31%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive value of the RAM were 95%, 12%, 97.73%, and 6.31%, respectively. Diagnostic accuracy via receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated at 0.62 of the area under the curve.

CONCLUSION

In this large retrospective external validation study of the COMPASS-CAT RAM for VTE in patients with cancer undergoing active treatment, model discrimination was moderate and calibration was poor. The model had good negative predictive value. Further prospective validation studies-especially within 6 months of cancer diagnosis-are needed before the model can be implemented into routine clinical practice for primary thromboprophylaxis of high-VTE-risk patients with cancer with solid tumors.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

This study provides further guidance for researchers and clinicians in determining clinical and laboratory risk factors associated with development of venous thromboembolism among the ambulatory population of patients being treated for lung, breast, colorectal, or ovarian cancer. It validates the COMPASS-CAT risk model that was developed in this cancer population and suggests that further prospective validation of the model, with more focus on patients within 6 months of their index cancer diagnosis, would likely enhance the accuracy and usefulness of this model as a clinical prediction tool.

A multicenter study of thromboembolic events among patients diagnosed with ROS1-rearranged non-small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to describe the longitudinal thromboembolism (TE) risk relative to the natural history of disease and clinical course of ROS1 rearranged non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cases of ROS1-rearranged NSCLC from six Australian hospitals were pooled and evaluated for incidence, timing, predictors and outcomes of venous or arterial TE, as well as objective response rate (ORR) to active therapy and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Of 42 patients recruited, 20 (48%) experienced TE; one (2%) arterial, 13 (31%) a pulmonary emboli (PE), and 12 (29%) a deep vein thrombosis. Among those with TE, six (30%) experienced multiple events, three as concurrent and three as recurrent diagnoses. The cumulative incidence of TE over time, adjusted for death as a competing risk factor, approached 50%. TE occurred prior to, during and post the peri-diagnostic period and occurred irrespective of treatment strategy. A thrombophilia was identified in n = 3/10 (30%) cases screened: in two factor V Leiden and in one anti-thrombin III (ATIII) deficiency. Median OS was 21.3 months in those with TE vs. 28.8 months in those without; hazard ratio 1.16 (95%CI 0.43-3.15). Respective ORR to first-line therapy with TE was 50% vs. 44% without TE in the chemotherapy arm and 67% vs. 50% in the targeted therapy arm.

CONCLUSION

In the rare cancer subtype, ROS1, these real-world data demonstrate sustained TE risk beyond the diagnostic period irrespective of therapeutic strategy. High incidence of PE, concurrent TE, and recurrent TE warrant validation in larger cohorts. Consideration of primary thromboprophylaxis in ROS1 populations is recommended.

Venous Thromboembolism in Patents With Lung Cancer

Lung cancer is the leading cause of death from cancer in Japan. Studies in other countries have reported a venous thromboembolism (VTE) rate of 4%-20% in cancer patients. In this study, we aimed to determine the incidence of VTE in lung cancer patients in Japan and compared the characteristics of patients with and without VTE. In this retrospective cohort study, the clinicopathological characteristics of study patients with and without concomitant VTE were compared. Patients with lung cancer treated at Fukui Prefectural Hospital, Japan from 2008 to 2017. Of the 1471 patients with lung cancer studied, 28 developed VTE. Five patients developed pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) alone, 9 PTE with concomitant deep vein thrombosis, and 14 deep vein thrombosis alone. Compared with patients in the non-VTE group, the VTE group was significantly younger (mean value ± SD 66.3 ± 10.1 vs. 73.0 ± 10.6 years, p = 0.001), contained significantly more patients with stage IIIb-IV disease (p = 0.002), and had a significantly higher rate of chemotherapy (p < 0.001) and radiation therapy (p = 0.007). There was no significant difference in median survival time from lung cancer diagnosis between the VTE and non-VTE groups. The 1-year mortality rate after VTE diagnosis was 60.7%. Lung cancer was the most frequent cause of death, followed by infection and VTE. Several baseline characteristics differed between patients with and without VTE. The prognosis may worsen after development of VTE, suggesting that lung cancer patients should be carefully monitored for it.

[Retrospective Analysis of Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism in 283 Patients with Lung Cancer during Systemic Therapy]

背景与目的

肺癌患者是静脉血栓栓塞症（venous thrombo-embolism, VTE）的高危人群，合并VTE者具有较高的死亡率。本研究旨在明确接受系统性治疗肺癌患者的VTE发生情况及影响因素。

方法

回顾性分析2016年1月-2018年12月在北京大学第三医院肿瘤化疗与放射病科接受系统性治疗的283例肺癌患者，卡方检验分析VTE与临床特征间的关系，多因素回归分析影响VTE的高危因素。

结果

283例肺癌患者中，VTE发生率为12.01%（34/283）。有下肢静脉曲张组的VTE发生率为50.00%（5/10），显著高于无下肢静脉曲张组的9.89%（27/273）（P=0.001）。远处转移患者的VTE发生率为14.05%（26/185），高于带瘤但无远处转移患者的14.00%（7/50），且高于无瘤患者的2.08%（1/48）（P=0.024）。肿瘤活动组的VTE发生率为16.93%（21/124），显著高于稳定组的8.18%（3/159)（P=0.025）。首次药物治疗前白蛋白 < 35g/L组VTE发生率为22.00%（11/50），显著高于≥35 g/L组的9.87%（23/233）（P=0.017）；D-二聚体 > 0.3 μg/mL组VTE发生率为17.93%（26/145），显著高于≤0.3 μg/mL组的5.80%（8/138）（P=0.006）。接受PICC的患者上肢静脉血栓的发生率为9.71%（17/175），显著高于未行PICC组的1.85%（2/108）（P=0.010）。肺癌病理类型、白细胞、血红蛋白、血小板计数及是否接受抗血管生成药物治疗等因素与VTE的发生率无关。多因素分析显示下肢静脉曲张、低白蛋白血症、D-二聚体升高是VTE的独立影响因素。

结论

有无下肢静脉曲张、血白蛋白和D-二聚体水平或许是预测肺癌患者系统性治疗期间发生VTE更为有效的因子，可进一步建立新的预测模型并进行前瞻性验证。