Adverse Event Burden Score-A Versatile Summary Measure for Cancer Clinical Trials

A Predictive Model of Vaccine Reactogenicity Using Data from an In Vitro Human Innate Immunity Assay System

A primary concern in vaccine development is safety, particularly avoiding an excessive immune reaction in an otherwise healthy individual. An accurate prediction of vaccine reactogenicity using in vitro assays and computational models would facilitate screening and prioritization of novel candidates early in the vaccine development process. Using the modular in vitro immune construct model of human innate immunity, PBMCs from 40 healthy donors were treated with 10 different vaccines of varying reactogenicity profiles and then cell culture supernatants were analyzed via flow cytometry and a multichemokine/cytokine assay. Differential response profiles of innate activity and cell viability were observed in the system. In parallel, an extensive adverse event (AE) dataset for the vaccines was assembled from clinical trial data. A novel reactogenicity scoring framework accounting for the frequency and severity of local and systemic AEs was applied to the clinical data, and a machine learning approach was employed to predict the incidence of clinical AEs from the in vitro assay data. Biomarker analysis suggested that the relative levels of IL-1B, IL-6, IL-10, and CCL4 have higher predictive importance for AE risk. Predictive models were developed for local reactogenicity, systemic reactogenicity, and specific individual AEs. A forward-validation study was performed with a vaccine not used in model development, Trumenba (meningococcal group B vaccine). The clinically observed Trumenba local and systemic reactogenicity fell on the 26th and 93rd percentiles of the ranges predicted by the respective models. Models predicting specific AEs were less accurate. Our study presents a useful framework for the further development of vaccine reactogenicity predictive models.

Review of real-world experience with lurbinectedin in relapsed/refractory small cell lung cancer

Lurbinectedin, a novel antineoplastic agent, was granted the orphan drug designation by the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) and approved for use in relapsed/refractory small cell lung cancer in June 2020. The approval was granted after its efficacy was demonstrated in a multicenter open-label, multi-cohort study enrolling 105 participants. Since then, real-world studies have examined the efficacy and safety profiles of lurbinectedin in clinical practice. By examining these outcomes, this review aims to provide clinicians with the tools necessary to make informed clinical decisions.

Ledipasvir/Sofosbuvir in Hepatitis C Virus-Infected Children With Hematological Malignancies: A Pharmacokinetic Study

PURPOSE

Children with hematological malignancies and chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are at a higher risk for rapid progression of liver disease and malignancy relapse due to multiple hepatitis flares and chemotherapy interruption. They are therefore potential candidates for microelimination of HCV infection. This study aimed to assess the effect of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) on the pharmacokinetic (PK) profile of direct-acting antivirals, namely ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) and the SOF major metabolite GS-331007.

METHODS

This was a 24-week, prospective, controlled, open-label, 2-arm PK study of patients receiving 45/200 mg once-daily LDV/SOF orally for 12 weeks. Eligible patients were HCV-RNA-positive, treatment-naive children aged 6 to <12 years and/or weighing 17 to <35 kg with genotype 4 chronic HCV infection without cirrhosis. The primary efficacy and safety end points were the achievement of sustained virologic response for all patients with absence of any adverse events leading to permanent discontinuation of the study drug. Steady-state noncompartmental analysis was performed to determine the PK parameters of SOF, GS-331007, and LDV as the primary PK outcome. Dose suitability was based on the 90% CI of exposure geometric mean ratio percentage within 50% to 200% compared with adults.

FINDINGS

Ten HCV-infected children with ALL (chemotherapy treatment group) and 12 eligible children with no malignancy (control group) were enrolled and completed the study period. All 22 patients achieved the sustained virologic response with no adverse events leading to interruption or permanent discontinuation of the study drug. Compared with the control group, the ALL group patients had similar SOF, GS-331007, and LDV exposure. Compared with adults, the AUCτ of GS-331007 was lower and the AUCτ and Cmax,ss of SOF and the Cmax,ss of LDV were modestly higher in the ALL group (acceptance limit, 50%-200%). However, the observed efficacy and favorable safety profile made these changes not clinically significant.

IMPLICATIONS

Weight-based dosing of LDV/SOF (45/200 mg) is highly effective and safe among genotype 4 HCV-infected children weighing 17 to <35 kg and diagnosed with ALL undergoing maintenance chemotherapy. The similarity in the drug exposure, efficacy, and safety clinical end points between patients with and without hematological malignancy support their therapeutic equivalence. Further studies with a larger sample size may be required to confirm the safety of LDV/SOF in patients with ALL and to recommend appropriate dosing in children with hematological malignancies, if needed.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov identifier: NCT03903185.

Lung-heart toxicity in a randomized clinical trial of hypofractionated image guided radiation therapy for breast cancer

Background

TomoBreast hypothesized that hypofractionated 15 fractions/3 weeks image-guided radiation therapy (H-IGRT) can reduce lung-heart toxicity, as compared with normofractionated 25-33 fractions/5-7 weeks conventional radiation therapy (CRT).

Methods

In a single center 123 women with stage I-II operated breast cancer were randomized to receive CRT (N=64) or H-IGRT (N=59). The primary endpoint used a composite four-items measure of the time to 10% alteration in any of patient-reported outcomes, physician clinical evaluation, echocardiography or lung function tests, analyzed by intention-to-treat.

Results

At 12 years median follow-up, overall and disease-free survivals between randomized arms were comparable, while survival time free from alteration significantly improved with H-IGRT which showed a gain of restricted mean survival time of 1.46 years over CRT, P=0.041.

Discussion

The finding establishes TomoBreast as a proof-of-concept that hypofractionated image-guided radiation-therapy can improve the sparing of lung-heart function in breast cancer adjuvant therapy without loss in disease-free survival. Hypofractionation is advantageous, conditional on using an advanced radiation technique. Multicenter validation may be warranted.

Trial registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00459628. Registered 12 April 2007.

Detailed safety profile of acalabrutinib vs ibrutinib in previously treated chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the ELEVATE-RR trial

ELEVATE-RR demonstrated noninferior progression-free survival and lower incidence of key adverse events (AEs) with acalabrutinib vs ibrutinib in previously treated chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We further characterize AEs of acalabrutinib and ibrutinib via post hoc analysis. Overall and exposure-adjusted incidence rate was assessed for common Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor-associated AEs and for selected events of clinical interest (ECIs). AE burden scores based on previously published methodology were calculated for AEs overall and selected ECIs. Safety analyses included 529 patients (acalabrutinib, n = 266; ibrutinib, n = 263). Among common AEs, incidences of any-grade diarrhea, arthralgia, urinary tract infection, back pain, muscle spasms, and dyspepsia were higher with ibrutinib, with 1.5- to 4.1-fold higher exposure-adjusted incidence rates. Incidences of headache and cough were higher with acalabrutinib, with 1.6- and 1.2-fold higher exposure-adjusted incidence rate, respectively. Among ECIs, incidences of any-grade atrial fibrillation/flutter, hypertension, and bleeding were higher with ibrutinib, as were exposure-adjusted incidence rates (2.0-, 2.8-, and 1.6-fold, respectively); incidences of cardiac events overall (the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities system organ class) and infections were similar between arms. Rate of discontinuation because of AEs was lower for acalabrutinib (hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.93). AE burden score was higher for ibrutinib vs acalabrutinib overall and for the ECIs atrial fibrillation/flutter, hypertension, and bleeding. A limitation of this analysis is its open-label study design, which may influence the reporting of more subjective AEs. Overall, event-based analyses and AE burden scores demonstrated higher AE burden overall and specifically for atrial fibrillation, hypertension, and hemorrhage with ibrutinib vs acalabrutinib. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02477696.

Predictive Factors for Adverse Event Outcomes After Transarterial Radioembolization with Yttrium-90 Resin Microspheres in Europe: Results from the Prospective Observational CIRT Study

BACKGROUND

Using data collected in the prospective observational study CIRSE Registry for SIR-Spheres Therapy, the present study aimed at identifying predictors of adverse events (AEs) following transarterial radioembolization (TARE) with Yttrium-90 resin microspheres for liver tumours.

METHODS

We analysed 1027 patients enrolled between January 2015 and December 2017 and followed up for 24 months. Four hundred and twenty-two patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 120 with intrahepatic carcinoma (ICC), 237 with colorectal liver metastases and 248 with liver metastases from other primaries were included. Prognostic factors were calculated with a univariable analysis by using the overall AEs burden score (AEBS).

RESULTS

All-cause AEs were reported in 401/1027 (39.1%) patients, with AEs associated with TARE, such as abdominal pain (16.6%), fatigue (17%), and nausea (11.7%) reported most frequently. Grade 3 or higher AEs were reported in 92/1027 (9%) patients. Reports on grade ≥ 3 gastrointestinal ulcerations (0.4%), gastritis (0.3%), radiation cholecystitis (0.2%) or radioembolization-induced liver disease (0.5%) were uncommon. Univariable analysis showed that in HCC, AEBS increased for Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) 0 (p = 0.0045), 1 tumour nodule (0.0081),  > 1 TARE treatment (p = 0.0224), no prophylactic embolization (p = 0.0211), partition model dosimetry (p = 0.0007) and unilobar treatment target (0.0032). For ICC,  > 1 TARE treatment was associated with an increase in AEBS (p = 0.0224), and for colorectal liver metastases, ECOG 0 (p = 0.0188), > 2 prior systemic treatments (p = 0.0127), and 1 tumour nodule (p = 0.0155) were associated with an increased AEBS.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms that TARE is a safe treatment with low toxicity and a minimal impact on quality of life.

Repurposing Atovaquone as a Therapeutic against Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML): Combination with Conventional Chemotherapy Is Feasible and Well Tolerated

Survival of pediatric AML remains poor despite maximized myelosuppressive therapy. The pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (PJP)-treating medication atovaquone (AQ) suppresses oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) and reduces AML burden in patient-derived xenograft (PDX) mouse models, making it an ideal concomitant AML therapy. Poor palatability and limited product formulations have historically limited routine use of AQ in pediatric AML patients. Patients with de novo AML were enrolled at two hospitals. Daily AQ at established PJP dosing was combined with standard AML therapy, based on the Medical Research Council backbone. AQ compliance, adverse events (AEs), ease of administration score (scale: 1 (very difficult)-5 (very easy)) and blood/marrow pharmacokinetics (PK) were collected during Induction 1. Correlative studies assessed AQ-induced apoptosis and effects on OXPHOS. PDX models were treated with AQ. A total of 26 patients enrolled (ages 7.2 months-19.7 years, median 12 years); 24 were evaluable. A total of 14 (58%) and 19 (79%) evaluable patients achieved plasma concentrations above the known anti-leukemia concentration (>10 µM) by day 11 and at the end of Induction, respectively. Seven (29%) patients achieved adequate concentrations for PJP prophylaxis (>40 µM). Mean ease of administration score was 3.8. Correlative studies with AQ in patient samples demonstrated robust apoptosis, OXPHOS suppression, and prolonged survival in PDX models. Combining AQ with chemotherapy for AML appears feasible and safe in pediatric patients during Induction 1 and shows single-agent anti-leukemic effects in PDX models. AQ appears to be an ideal concomitant AML therapeutic but may require intra-patient dose adjustment to achieve concentrations sufficient for PJP prophylaxis.

Association of immune-related adverse events with the outcomes of immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with dMMR/MSI-H metastatic colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) show a tremendous activity in microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), but a consistent fraction of patients does not respond. Prognostic/predictive markers are needed. Despite previous investigations in other tumor types, immune-related adverse events (irAEs) have not been well evaluated in patients with MSI-H cancers treated with ICIs.

METHODS

We conducted an international cohort study at tertiary cancer centers collecting clinic-pathological features from 331 patients with MSI-H mCRC treated with ICIs. Of note, the irAEs were summarized using a 'burden score' constructed in a way that the same score value could be obtained by cumulating many low-grade irAEs or few high-grade irAEs; as a result, the lower the burden the better. Clearly, the irAE burden is not a baseline information, thus it was modeled as a time-dependent variable in univariable and multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

Among 331 patients, irAEs were reported in 144 (43.5%) patients. After a median follow-up time of 29.7 months, patients with higher burden of skin, endocrine and musculoskeletal irAEs (the latter two's effect was confirmed at multivariable analysis) had longer overall survival (OS), as opposed to gastrointestinal, pneumonitis, neurological, liver, renal and other irAEs, which showed an harmful effect. Similar results were observed for progression-free survival (PFS). Based on the results retrieved from organ-specific irAEs, 'aggregated' burden scores were developed to distinguish 'protective' (endocrine and musculoskeletal) and 'harmful' (gastrointestinal, pneumonitis, neurological, hepatic) irAEs showing prognostic effects on OS and PFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that not all irAEs could exert a protective effect on oncologic outcome. An easy-to-use model for ICIs toxicity (burden score of protective and harmful irAEs) may be used as surrogate marker of response.

Utility-based Bayesian personalized treatment selection for advanced breast cancer

A Bayesian method is proposed for personalized treatment selection in settings where data are available from a randomized clinical trial with two or more outcomes. The motivating application is a randomized trial that compared letrozole plus bevacizimab to letrozole alone as first-line therapy for hormone receptor positive advanced breast cancer. The combination treatment arm had larger median progression-free survival time, but also a higher rate of severe toxicities. This suggests that the risk-benefit trade-off between these two outcomes should play a central role in selecting each patient's treatment, particularly since older patients are less likely to tolerate severe toxicities. To quantify the desirability of each possible outcome combination for an individual patient, we elicited from breast cancer oncologists a utility function that varied with age. The utility was used as an explicit criterion for quantifying risk-benefit trade-offs when making personalized treatment selections. A Bayesian nonparametric multivariate regression model with a dependent Dirichlet process prior was fit to the trial data. Under the fitted model, a new patient's treatment can be selected based on the posterior predictive utility distribution. For the breast cancer trial dataset, the optimal treatment depends on the patient's age, with the combination preferable for patients 70 years or younger and the single agent preferable for patients older than 70.

Safety, Feasibility and Technical Considerations from a Prospective, Observational Study-CIREL: Irinotecan-TACE for CRLM in 152 Patients

CIREL, a prospective, Europe-wide, observational study aimed to assess the real-world feasibility and tolerability of irinotecan-based transarterial chemoembolization (LP-irinotecan TACE) for unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases with regard to the treatment plan and adverse events (AEs). CIREL enrolled 152 eligible patients (≥18 years) with liver-only or dominant metastases treated with LP-irinotecan TACE following a multidisciplinary tumor board decision. Data were prospectively collected for baseline, the number of planned and performed sessions, and technical information and safety according to CTCAE 4.03/5.0. Results from 351 analyzed treatment sessions showed technical success for 99% of sessions, and 121 patients (79%) completed all planned sessions. Further, 60% of sessions were performed using opioids, 4% intra-arterial anesthetics, and 25% both. Additionally, 60% of patients experienced at least one peri-interventional AE of any grade; 8% of grade 3−4. Occurrence of AEs was related to larger liver-involvement (p < 0.001), bi-lobar disease (p = 0.002), and larger beads (p < 0.001). Using corticosteroids together with antiemetics showed reduced and lower grade vomiting (p = 0.01). LP-irinotecan TACE was tolerated well and had a high proportion of completed treatment plans. This minimally invasive locoregional treatment can be used together with concomitant systemic therapy or ablation.

Access to and affordability of CAR T-cell therapy in multiple myeloma: an EBMT position paper

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy is a promising immunotherapeutic approach in the treatment of multiple myeloma, and the recent approval of the first two CAR T-cell products could result in improved outcomes. However, it remains a complex and expensive technology, which poses challenges to health-care systems and society in general, especially in times of crises. This potentially accelerates pre-existing inequalities as access to CAR T-cell therapy varies, both between countries, depending on the level of economic development, and within countries, due to structural disparities in access to quality health care-a parameter strongly correlated with socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and lifestyle. Here, we identify two important issues: affordability and access to CAR T-cell treatment. This consensus statement from clinical investigators, clinicians, nurses, and patients from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) proposes solutions as part of an innovative collaborative strategy to make CAR T-cell therapy accessible to all patients with multiple myeloma.

Reaching beyond maximum grade: progress and future directions for modernising the assessment and reporting of adverse events in haematological malignancies

Remarkable improvements in outcomes for many haematological malignancies have been driven primarily by a proliferation of novel therapeutics over the past two decades. Targeted agents, immune and cellular therapies, and combination regimens have adverse event profiles distinct from conventional finite cytotoxic chemotherapies. In 2018, a Commission comprising patient advocates, clinicians, clinical investigators, regulators, biostatisticians, and pharmacists representing a broad range of academic and clinical cancer expertise examined issues of adverse event evaluation in the context of both newer and existing therapies for haematological cancers. The Commission proposed immediate actions and long-term solutions in the current processes in adverse event assessment, patient-reported outcomes in haematological malignancies, toxicities in cellular therapies, long-term toxicity and survivorship in haematological malignancies, issues in regulatory approval from an international perspective, and toxicity reporting in haematological malignancies and the real-world setting. In this follow-up report, the Commission describes progress that has been made in these areas since the initial report.

Novel longitudinal Multiple Overall Toxicity (MOTox) score to quantify adverse events experienced by patients during chemotherapy treatment: a retrospective analysis of the MRC BO06 trial in osteosarcoma

OBJECTIVES

This study aims at exploring and quantifying multiple types of adverse events (AEs) experienced by patients during cancer treatment. A novel longitudinal score to evaluate the Multiple Overall Toxicity (MOTox) burden is proposed. The MOTox approach investigates the personalised evolution of high overall toxicity (high-MOTox) during the treatment.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of the MRC-BO06/EORTC-80931 randomised controlled trial for osteosarcoma.

SETTING

International multicentre population-based study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 377 patients with resectable high-grade osteosarcoma, who completed treatment within 180 days after randomisation without abnormal dosages (+25% higher than planned).

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomised to six cycles of conventional versus dose-intense regimens of doxorubicin and cisplatin. Non-haematological toxicity data were collected prospectively and graded according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The MOTox score described the overall toxicity burden in terms of multiple toxic AEs, maximum-severity episode and cycle time-dimension. Evolution of high-MOTox was assessed through multivariable models, that investigated the impact of personalised characteristics (eg, achieved chemotherapy dose, previous AEs or biochemical factors) cycle-by-cycle.

RESULTS

A cycle-by-cycle analysis identifies different evolutions of MOTox levels during treatment, detecting differences in patients' health. Mean MOTox values and percentages of patients with high-MOTox decreased cycle-by-cycle from 2.626 to 1.953 and from 57.8% to 36.6%, respectively. High-MOTox conditions during previous cycles were prognostic risk factors for a new occurrence (ORs range from 1.522 to 4.439), showing that patient's history of toxicities played an important role in the evolution of overall toxicity burden during therapy. Conventional regimen may be preferred to dose-intense in terms of AEs at cycles 2-3 (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The novel longitudinal method developed can be applied to any cancer studies with CTCAE-graded toxicity data. After validation in other studies, the MOTox approach may lead to improvements in healthcare assessment and treatment planning.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN86294690; Post-results.

Association Between Physician and Patient Reported Symptoms in Patients Treated with Definitive Radiotherapy for Locally Advanced Lung Cancer in a Statewide Consortium

INTRODUCTION

Little data have been reported about the patient experience during curative radiotherapy for lung cancer in routine clinical practice, or how this relates to treatment toxicity reported by clinicians. The purpose of this study was to compare clinician-reported adverse events (AEs) with patient-reported outcomes (PROs) including both specific symptoms/side effects as well as overall quality of life (QOL) during and after definitive radiotherapy (RT) for locally advanced lung cancer (LALC) in a large statewide cohort.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were prospectively collected from patients treated with definitive radiotherapy for LALC at 24 institutions within the XXXX Radiation Oncology Quality Consortium between 2012-2018 using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy Trial Outcome Index (FACT-TOI). Physicians prospectively recorded adverse events (AEs) using CTCAE version 4.0. Patient-reported quality of life (QOL) changes from baseline were assessed during and after radiotherapy using the FACT-TOI. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated for AEs and similar PROs, and multivariable analysis was used to assess associations with QOL.

RESULTS

1361 patients were included and 53% of respondents reported clinically meaningful declines in QOL at the end of RT. Correlation between clinician-reported esophagitis and patient-reported trouble swallowing was moderate (R=0.67) while correlations between clinician-reported pneumonitis and patient-reported shortness of breath (R=0.13) and cough (R=0.09) were weak. Clinician-reported AEs were significantly associated with clinically meaningful declines inpatient-reported QOL, with R=-0.46 for a summary AE-score. QOL was more strongly associated with fatigue (R=-0.41) than lung-specific AEs.

CONCLUSIONS

AEs are associated with clinically meaningful declines in QOL during and after RT for LALC, but associations between AEs and QOL are only modest. This highlights the importance of PRO data, and future research should assess whether earlier detection of PRO changes could allow for interventions that reduce the frequency of treatment-related clinically meaningful declines in QOL.

Visualizing adverse events in clinical trials using correspondence analysis with R-package visae

Background

Graphical displays and data visualization are essential components of statistical analysis that can lead to improved understanding of clinical trial adverse event (AE) data. Correspondence analysis (CA) has been introduced decades ago as a multivariate technique that can communicate AE contingency tables using two-dimensional plots, while quantifying the loss of information as other dimension reduction techniques such as principal components and factor analysis.

Methods

We propose the application of stacked CA using contribution biplots as a tool to explore differences in AE data among treatments in clinical trials. We defined five levels of refinement for the analysis based on data derived from the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) grades, domains, terms and their combinations. In addition, we developed a Shiny app built in an R-package, visae, publicly available on Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN), to interactively investigate CA configurations based on the contribution to the explained variance and relative frequency of AEs. Data from two randomized controlled trials (RCT) were used to illustrate the proposed methods: NSABP R-04, a neoadjuvant rectal 2 × 2 factorial trial comparing radiation therapy with either capecitabine (Cape) or 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) alone with or without oxaliplatin (Oxa), and NSABP B-35, a double-blind RCT comparing tamoxifen to anastrozole in postmenopausal women with hormone-positive ductal carcinoma in situ.

Results

In the R04 trial (n = 1308), CA biplots displayed the discrepancies between single agent treatments and their combinations with Oxa at all levels of AE classes, such that these discrepancies were responsible for the largest portion of the explained variability among treatments. In addition, an interaction effect when adding Oxa to Cape/5-FU was identified when the distance between Cape+Oxa and 5-FU + Oxa was observed to be larger than the distance between 5-FU and Cape, with Cape+Oxa and 5-FU + Oxa in different quadrants of the CA biplots. In the B35 trial (n = 3009), CA biplots showed different patterns for non-adherent Anastrozole and Tamoxifen compared with their adherent counterparts.

Conclusion

CA with contribution biplot is an effective tool that can be used to summarize AE data in a two-dimensional display while minimizing the loss of information and interpretation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01368-w.

Adverse event burden in older patients with CLL receiving bendamustine plus rituximab or ibrutinib regimens: Alliance A041202

Ibrutinib has superior progression-free survival compared with bendamustine plus rituximab (BR) in older CLL patients, however, differences in treatment duration, six monthly BR cycles versus continuous ibrutinib, complicate adverse event (AE) comparisons. We introduce the AE burden score (AE_sc) to compare AEs, calculated for each patient by summing over products of reporting period length and grade for each all-cause grade 1-4 AE and dividing by the length of time over which AEs are assessed. A total of 176 patients received BR and 361 ibrutinib alone or with six cycles of rituximab. At 38 months median follow-up, 64% remained on ibrutinib. Median AE_sc was higher with BR versus ibrutinib in the first six cycles (7.2 versus 4.9, p < 0.0001). Within ibrutinib arms, median AE_sc decreased significantly to 3.7 after six cycles (p < 0.0001). 10% and 14% of BR and ibrutinib patients discontinued treatment for AEs. In ibrutinib arms, cumulative incidence of grade 3 or higher atrial fibrillation, hypertension, and infection (AEs of clinical interest) at 12 months was 4.5%, 17.5%, and 12.8%, respectively, and increased more slowly thereafter to 7.7%, 25.4%, and 20.5% at 36 months. Analytical tools including the AE_sc and cumulative incidence of AEs can help to better characterize AE burden over time. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01886872.

Making Patient-Specific Treatment Decisions Using Prognostic Variables and Utilities of Clinical Outcomes

We argue that well-informed patient-specific decision-making may be carried out as three consecutive tasks: (1) estimating key parameters of a statistical model, (2) using prognostic information to convert these parameters into clinically interpretable values, and (3) specifying joint utility functions to quantify risk-benefit trade-offs between clinical outcomes. Using the management of metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma as our motivating example, we explain the role of prognostic covariates that characterize between-patient heterogeneity in clinical outcomes. We show that explicitly specifying the joint utility of clinical outcomes provides a coherent basis for patient-specific decision-making.