Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Outperforms Quantitative Chest CT Imaging Parameters for Mortality Prediction in COVID-19 ARDS

Performance of artificial intelligence in predicting the prognossis of severe COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

COVID-19-induced pneumonia has become a persistent health concern, with severe cases posing a significant threat to patient lives. However, the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in assisting physicians in predicting the prognosis of severe COVID-19 patients remains unclear.

Methods

To obtain relevant studies, two researchers conducted a comprehensive search of the PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase databases, including all studies published up to October 31, 2023, that utilized AI to predict mortality rates in severe COVID-19 patients. The PROBAST 2019 tool was employed to assess the potential bias in the included studies, and Stata 16 was used for meta-analysis, publication bias assessment, and sensitivity analysis.

Results

A total of 19 studies, comprising 26 models, were included in the analysis. Among them, the models that incorporated both clinical and radiological data demonstrated the highest performance. These models achieved an overall sensitivity of 0.81 (0.64-0.91), specificity of 0.77 (0.71-0.82), and an overall area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 (0.85-0.90). Subgroup analysis revealed notable findings. Studies conducted in developed countries exhibited significantly higher predictive specificity for both radiological and combined models (p < 0.05). Additionally, investigations involving non-intensive care unit patients demonstrated significantly greater predictive specificity (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The current evidence suggests that artificial intelligence prediction models show promising performance in predicting the prognosis of severe COVID-19 patients. However, due to variations in the suitability of different models for specific populations, it is not yet certain whether they can be fully applied in clinical practice. There is still room for improvement in their predictive capabilities, and future research and development efforts are needed.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ with the Unique Identifier CRD42023431537.

Lung Imaging and Artificial Intelligence in ARDS

Artificial intelligence (AI) can make intelligent decisions in a manner akin to that of the human mind. AI has the potential to improve clinical workflow, diagnosis, and prognosis, especially in radiology. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a very diverse illness that is characterized by interstitial opacities, mostly in the dependent areas, decreased lung aeration with alveolar collapse, and inflammatory lung edema resulting in elevated lung weight. As a result, lung imaging is a crucial tool for evaluating the mechanical and morphological traits of ARDS patients. Compared to traditional chest radiography, sensitivity and specificity of lung computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound are higher. The state of the art in the application of AI is summarized in this narrative review which focuses on CT and ultrasound techniques in patients with ARDS. A total of eighteen items were retrieved. The primary goals of using AI for lung imaging were to evaluate the risk of developing ARDS, the measurement of alveolar recruitment, potential alternative diagnoses, and outcome. While the physician must still be present to guarantee a high standard of examination, AI could help the clinical team provide the best care possible.

A Novel Combined Model to Predict the Prognosis of COVID-19: Radiologicalmetabolic Scoring

AIM

To investigate the performance of a novel radiological-metabolic scoring (RM-S) system to predict mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) requirements among COVID-19 patients and to compare performance with the chest computed-tomography severity-scoring (C-CT-SS). The RMS was created from scoring systems such as visual coronary-artery-calcification scoring (V-CAC-S), hepatic-steatosis scoring (HS-S) and pancreatic-steatosis scoring (PS-S).

METHODS

Between May 2021 and January 2022, 397 patients with COVID-19 were included in this retrospective cohort study. All demographic, clinical and laboratory data and chest CT images of patients were retrospectively reviewed. RM-S, V-CAC-S, HS-S, PS-S and C-CT-SS scores were calculated, and their performance in predicting mortality and ICU requirement were evaluated by univariate and multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 32 (8.1%) patients died, and 77 (19.4%) patients required ICU admission. Mortality and ICU admission were both associated with older age (p < 0.001). Sex distribution was similar in the deceased vs. survivor and ICU vs. non-ICU comparisons (p = 0.974 and p = 0.626, respectively). Multiple logistic regression revealed that mortality was independently associated with having a C-CT-SS score of ≥ 14 (p < 0.001) and severe RM-S category (p = 0.010), while ICU requirement was independently associated with having a C-CT-SS score of ≥ 14 (p < 0.001) and severe V-CAC-S category (p = 0.010).

CONCLUSION

RM-S, C-CT-SS, and V-CAC-S are useful tools that can be used to predict patients with poor prognoses for COVID-19. Long-term prospective follow-up of patients with high RM-S scores can be useful for predicting long COVID.

Radiographic Findings and Association With Clinical Severity and Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19

PURPOSE

To describe evolution and severity of radiographic findings and assess association with disease severity and outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 62 COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Clinical data was obtained from electronic medical records. A total of 270 chest radiographs were reviewed and qualitatively scored (CXR score) using a severity scale of 0-30. Radiographic findings were correlated with clinical severity and outcome.

RESULTS

The CXR score increases from a median initial score of 10 at hospital presentation to the median peak CXR score of 18 within a median time of 4 days after hospitalization, and then slowly decreases to a median last CXR score of 15 in a median time of 12 days after hospitalization. The initial and peak CXR score was independently associated with invasive MV after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, smoking, and comorbidities (Initial, odds ratio [OR]: 2.11 per 5-point increase, confidence interval [CI] 1.35-3.32, P= 0.001; Peak, OR: 2.50 per 5-point increase, CI 1.48-4.22, P= 0.001). Peak CXR scores were also independently associated with vasopressor usage (OR: 2.28 per 5-point increase, CI 1.30-3.98, P= 0.004). Peak CXR scores strongly correlated with the duration of invasive MV (Rho = 0.62, P< 0.001), while the initial CXR score (Rho = 0.26) and the peak CXR score (Rho = 0.27) correlated weakly with the sequential organ failure assessment score. No statistically significant associations were found between radiographic findings and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Evolution of radiographic features indicates rapid disease progression and correlate with requirement for invasive MV or vasopressors but not mortality, which suggests potential nonpulmonary pathways to death in COVID-19.