Seven Ways a Warming Climate Can Kill the Southern Boreal Forest

Population and community ecology: past progress and future directions

Population and community ecology as a science are about 100 years old, and we discuss here our opinion of what approaches have progressed well and which point to possible future directions. The three major threads within population and community ecology are theoretical ecology, statistical tests and models, and experimental ecology. We suggest that our major objective is to understand what factors determine the distribution and abundance of organisms within populations and communities, and we evaluate these threads against this major objective. Theoretical ecology is elegant and compelling and has laid the groundwork for achieving our overall objectives with useful simple models. Statistics and statistical models have contributed informative methods to analyze quantitatively our understanding of distribution and abundance for future research. Population ecology is difficult to carry out in the field, even though we may have all the statistical methods and models needed to achieve results. Community ecology is growing rapidly with much description but less understanding of why changes occur. Biodiversity science cuts across all these subdivisions but rarely digs into the necessary population and community science that might solve conservation problems. Climate change affects all aspects of ecology but to assume that everything in population and community ecology is driven by climate change is oversimplified. We make recommendations on how to advance the field with advice for present and future generations of population and community ecologists.

The effect of forest composition on outdoor recreation

Climate change will shift the composition of northern Minnesota forests from boreal to temperate by the end of the century. This shift in forest composition will likely affect outdoor recreation, a valuable ecosystem service and a key economic driver for the region. In this context, the objective of our paper is to empirically examine the relationship between forest composition and recreation. We analyze the effect of changes in forest composition for seven forest types on seven types of recreation using a lognormal pooled panel regression model for Minnesota's Laurentian Mixed Forest Province. Earlier research showed forest composition affected recreation at the level of broad groups of broadleaved or coniferous species. We find a statistically significant empirical association between forest composition and recreation at the forest type level (forest types within those broad groups). This relationship varies across forest types and recreation categories. For example, big game hunting is positively related to elm-ash-cottonwood and white-red-jack pine and negatively associated with aspen-birch. We find individual forest types within broad groups of broadleaved or coniferous forests, have different relationships with recreation, so that these broad groups are not sufficient in capturing the effect of forest composition on recreation. Our results are of interest in the context of current shifts in forest composition caused by climate change, which could also affect recreation. Our findings suggest adding a forest composition lens to existing policies could facilitate strategies for more effective recreation management and climate change adaptation.

Wildfire-induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape-level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat-derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post-fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space-for-time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid-succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8-40% during June and July for 2- to 59-year stands relative to pre-fire controls. From the analysis of post-fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long-term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early- and mid-summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long-term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO2 exchange without a close coupling to long-term increases in carbon storage.

Lake Superior's summer cooling of shorelines and adjacent inland forests: Implications for refugia of boreal forests and disjunct arctic-alpine plants

Climate refugia can serve as remnant habitat for cold-adapted species and delay forest transitions. The world's largest freshwater lake by surface area, Lake Superior, serves as a model system for understanding cooling-mediated refugia effects, as its cool summer water temperatures have maintained disjunct populations of arctic-alpine plants on its shoreline since deglaciation. It is known to affect local inland climates by providing a summer cooling effect; however, the inland temperature gradient and spatial patterns of cooling have not been well quantified. Here, we describe the extent, degree, and patterns of temperature buffering and examine drivers of buffering and disjunct plant occurrence for Lake Superior's north shore over a 3-year period at distances of 10, 100 m, 1, 10, and 100 km inland. We analyzed temperature data by year, month, summer maximum (July), and growing degree days (GDD0) for each site. Average summertime cooling at shore sites (10 m) was ~5°C cooler than reference sites (100 km inland), with a maximum difference of -19.2°C. The magnitude of cooling varied geographically, with sites further west and southeast showing little to no cooling effect, while the exposed north-central shore showed the highest degree of buffering (5.8°C cooler) and had a shorter growing season than reference sites. Finally, north-central shorelines had fewer days above 16°C, a threshold above which disjunct plants are unlikely to grow. These sites also showed the highest proportion of disjunct arctic-alpine species, reflecting the highest buffering from inland sites. On north-central shores, sites up to 10 km inland had less than 10 days per year warmer than 20°C, a threshold identified for boreal forest transition. An understanding of the extent of lake-mediated cooling on adjacent forests can better inform the risk to disjunct species, inland forests, and vegetation transition models on Lake Superior's north shore.

Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests

Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. Here, we used remotely-sensed tree cover data to quantify temporal changes across the North American boreal biome from 2000 to 2019. We reveal a strong north-south asymmetry in tree cover change, coupled with a range shrinkage of tree cover distributions. We found no evidence for tree cover expansion in the northern biome, while tree cover increased markedly in the core of the biome range. By contrast, tree cover declined along the southern biome boundary, where losses were related largely to wildfires and timber logging. We show that these contrasting trends are structural indicators for a possible onset of a biome contraction which may lead to long-term carbon declines.

Extreme temperature events reduced carbon uptake of a boreal forest ecosystem in Northeast China: Evidence from an 11-year eddy covariance observation

Boreal forests, the second continental biome on Earth, are known for their massive carbon storage capacity and important role in the global carbon cycle. Comprehending the temporal dynamics and controlling factors of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) is critical for predicting how the carbon exchange in boreal forests will change in response to climate change. Therefore, based on long-term eddy covariance observations from 2008 to 2018, we evaluated the diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variations in the boreal forest ecosystem NEE in Northeast China and explored its environmental regulation. It was found that the boreal forest was a minor CO₂ sink with an annual average NEE of -64.01 (± 24.23) g CO₂ m^-2 yr^-1. The diurnal variation in the NEE of boreal forest during the growing season was considerably larger than that during the non-growing season, and carbon uptake peaked between 8:30 and 9:30 in the morning. The seasonal variation in NEE demonstrated a "U" shaped curve, and the carbon uptake peaked in July. On a half-hourly scale, photosynthetically active radiation and vapor pressure deficit had larger impacts on daytime NEE during the growing season. However, temperature had major control on NEE during the growing season at night and during the non-growing season. On a daily scale, temperature was the dominant factor controlling seasonal variation in NEE. Occurrence of extreme temperature days, especially extreme temperature events, would reduce boreal forest carbon uptake; interannual variation in NEE was substantially associated with the maximum CO₂ uptake rate during the growing season. This study deepens our understanding of environmental controls on NEE at multiple timescales and provides a data basis for evaluating the global carbon budget.

Regeneration of Pinus sibirica Du Tour in the Mountain Tundra of the Northern Urals against the Background of Climate Warming

Climate is one of the key drivers of the plant community’s structure and trends. However, the regional vegetation-climate features in the ecotone have not yet been sufficiently studied. The aim of the research is to study features of Pinus sibirica Du Tour germination, survival, and growth in the mountain tundra of the Northern Urals against the background of a changing climate. The following research objectives were set: To determine the abundance and age structure of P. sibirica undergrowth on the mountain tundra plateau, identify the features of P. sibirica growth in the mountain tundra, and examine the correlation between the multi-year air temperature pattern, precipitation, and P. sibirica seedling emergence. A detailed study of the Pinus sibirica natural regeneration in the mountain stony shrub-moss-lichen tundra area at an altitude of 1010–1040 m above sea level on the Tri Bugra mountain massif plateau (59°30′ N, 59°15′ E) in the Northern Urals (Russia) has been conducted. The research involved the period between 1965 and 2017. Woody plant undergrowth was considered in 30 plots, 5 × 5 m in size. The first generations were recorded from 1967–1969. The regeneration has become regular since 1978 and its intensity has been increasing since then. Climate warming is driving these processes. Correlation analysis revealed significant relationships between the number of Pinus sibirica seedlings and the minimum temperature in August and September of the current year, the minimum temperatures in May, June, and November of the previous year, the maximum temperatures in May and August of the current year, and precipitation in March of both the current and previous years. However, the young tree growth rate remains low to date (the height at an age of 45–50 years is approximately 114 ± 8.8 cm). At the same time, its open crowns are rare single lateral shoots. The length of the side shoots exceeds its height by 4–5 times, and the length of the lateral roots exceeds its height by 1.2–1.5 times. This is an indicator of the extreme conditions for this tree species. With the current rates of climate warming and the Pinus sibirica tree growth trends, the revealed relationships allow for the prediction that in 20–25 years, the mountain tundra in the studied Northern Urals plateau could develop underground-closed forest communities with a certain forest relationship. The research results are of theoretical importance for clarifying the forest-tundra ecotone concept. From a practical point of view, the revealed relationship can be used to predict the trend in forest ecosystem formation in the mountain forest-tundra ecotone.

Tree Maladaptation Under Mid-Latitude Early Spring Warming and Late Cold Spell: Implications for Assisted Migration

Global warming is predicted to extend the growing season of trees and plants, and advance spring phenology. However, intensification of extreme climate events in mid-latitude forests, from weakening of the jet stream and atmospheric blockings, may expose trees to increased risk associated with more frequent late-spring frosts. Still, little is known regarding the intraspecific variation in frost tolerance and how it may be shaped by local adaptation to the climate of seed origin. As part of an assisted migration trial located in different bioclimatic zones in the province of Quebec, Canada, and following an extensive late-spring frost that occurred at the end of May 2021, we evaluated the frost damages on various white spruce (Picea glauca) seed sources tested on three sites (south, central, and north). The severity of frost damages was assessed on 5,376 trees after the cold spell and an early spring warming which advanced bud flush by approximately 10 days on average. The frost damage rate was similar among sites and seed sources and averaged 99.8%. Frost damage severity was unrelated to the latitude of seed origin but was variable among sites. The proportion of severely damaged trees was higher in the northern site, followed by central and southern sites. The proportion of severely damaged trees was linearly and inversely related to tree height before the frost event. Apical growth cancelation was not significantly different among seed sources including local ones, and averaged 74, 46, and 22%, respectively, in central, northern, and southern plantation sites. This study provides recommendations to limit the loss of plantation productivity associated with such a succession of spring climate anomalies. Implications for seed transfer models in the context of climate change and productivity of spruce plantations are discussed in the light of lack of local adaptation to such pronounced climate instability and ensuing large-scale maladaptation.

Breeding for adaptation to climate change: genomic selection for drought response in a white spruce multi‐site polycross test

With climate change, increasingly intense and frequent drought episodes will be affecting water availability for boreal tree species, prompting tree breeders and forest managers to consider adaptation to drought stress as a priority in their reforestation efforts. We used a 19‐year‐old polycross progeny test of the model conifer white spruce (Picea glauca) replicated on two sites affected by distinct drought episodes at different ages to estimate the genetic control and the potential for improvement of drought response in addition to conventional cumulative growth and wood quality traits. Drought response components were measured from dendrochronological signatures matching drought episodes in wood ring increment cores. We found that trees with more vigorous growth during their lifespan resisted better during the current year of a drought episode when the drought had more severe effects. Phenotypic data were also analyzed using genomic prediction (GBLUP) relying on the genomic relationship matrix of multi‐locus gene SNP marker information, and conventional analysis (ABLUP) based on validated pedigree information. The accuracy of predicted breeding values for drought response components was marginally lower than that for conventional traits and comparable between GBLUP and ABLUP. Genetic correlations were generally low and nonsignificant between drought response components and conventional traits, except for resistance which was positively correlated to tree height. Heritability estimates for the components of drought response were slightly lower than for conventional traits, but similar single‐trait genetic gains could be obtained. Multi‐trait genomic selection simulations indicated that it was possible to improve simultaneously for all traits on both sites while sacrificing little on gain in tree height. In a context of rapid climate change, our results suggest that with careful phenotypic assessment, drought response may be considered in multi‐trait improvement of white spruce, with accelerated screening of large numbers of candidates and selection at young age with genomic selection.

Distinct Climate Effects on Dahurian Larch Growth at an Asian Temperate-Boreal Forest Ecotone and Nearby Boreal Sites

Climate change is exerting profound impacts on the structure and function of global boreal forest. Compared with their northern counterparts, trees growing at the southern boreal forest and the temperate-boreal forest ecotone likely show distinct responses to climate change. Based on annual basal areal increment (BAI) of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantations with similar ages, tree densities and soil nutrient conditions, we investigated the tree growth responses to inter-annual climate variations at an Asian temperate-boreal forest ecotone and nearby boreal sites in northeast China. Annual BAI changed nonlinearly with cambial age in the form of a lognormal curve. The maximum annual BAI showed no significant difference between the two bioregions, while annual BAI peaked at an elder age at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone. After eliminating the age associated trend, conditional regression analyses indicate that residual BAI at the boreal sites increased significantly with higher growing-season mean nighttime minimum temperature and non-growing-season precipitation, but decreased significantly with higher growing-season mean daytime maximum temperature during the past three decades (1985–2015). In contrast, residual BAI at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone only showed a positive and weak response to inter-annual variations of growing-season precipitation. These findings suggest distinct effects of inter-annual climate variation on the growth of boreal trees at the temperate-boreal forest ecotone in comparison to the southern boreal regions, and highlight future efforts to elucidate the key factors that regulate the growth ofthe southernmost boreal trees.