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Forsius M, Holmberg M, Junttila V, Kujala H, Schulz T, Paunu VV, Savolahti M, Minunno F, Akujärvi A, Bäck J, Grönroos J, Heikkinen RK, Karvosenoja N, Mäkelä A, Mikkonen N, Pekkonen M, Rankinen K, Virkkala R. Modelling the regional potential for reaching carbon neutrality in Finland: Sustainable forestry, energy use and biodiversity protection. AMBIO 2023; 52:1757-1776. [PMID: 37561360 PMCID: PMC10562359 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01860-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 01/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/22/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (- 12 to - 17.5 TgCO2eq a-1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Forsius
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Maria Holmberg
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Virpi Junttila
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Natural History Museum, University of Helsinki, (Pohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13), P.O. Box 17, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Torsti Schulz
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ville-Veikko Paunu
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mikko Savolahti
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Francesco Minunno
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, (Latokartanonkaari 7), P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anu Akujärvi
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jaana Bäck
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, (Latokartanonkaari 7), P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Grönroos
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Risto K. Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Niko Karvosenoja
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Annikki Mäkelä
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, (Latokartanonkaari 7), P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ninni Mikkonen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Minna Pekkonen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Katri Rankinen
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
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