Infection Rates by Dengue Virus in Mosquitoes and the Influence of Temperature May Be Related to Different Endemicity Patterns in Three Colombian Cities

Dengue-mediated changes in the vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): manipulation of transmission or infection by-product?

An arthropod's vectorial capacity summarizes its disease transmission potential. Life-history traits, such as fecundity or survival, and behavioral traits, such as locomotor activity, host-seeking and feeding behavior, are important components of vectorial capacity. Studies have shown that mosquito-borne pathogens may alter important vectorial capacity traits of their mosquito vectors, thus directly impacting their transmission and epidemic potential. Here, we compile and discuss the evidence supporting dengue-mediated changes in the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti (L.), its primary vector, and evaluate whether the observed effects represent an evolved trait manipulation with epidemiological implications. Dengue infection appears to manipulate essential traits that facilitate vector-host contact, such as locomotor activity, host-seeking, and feeding behavior, but the underlying mechanisms are still not understood. Conversely, life-history traits relevant to vector population dynamics, such as survival, oviposition, and fecundity, appear to be negatively impacted by dengue virus. Overall, any detrimental effects on life-history traits may be a negligible cost derived from the virulence that dengue has evolved to facilitate its transmission by manipulating Ae. aegypti behavior and feeding performance. However, methodological disparities among studies render comparisons difficult and limit the ability to reach well-supported conclusions. This highlights the need for more standardized methods for the research into changes in virus-mediated traits. Eventually, we argue that the effects on life-history traits and behavior outlined here must be considered when assessing the epidemiological impact of dengue or other arbovirus-vector-host interactions.

Influence of dengue virus serotypes on the abundance of Aedes aegypti insect-specific viruses (ISVs)

A comprehensive understanding of the virome in mosquito vectors is crucial for assessing the potential transmission of viral agents, designing effective vector control strategies, and advancing our knowledge of insect-specific viruses (ISVs). In this study, we utilized Oxford Nanopore Technologies metagenomics to characterize the virome of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes collected in various regions of Colombia, a country hyperendemic for dengue virus (DENV). Analyses were conducted on groups of insects with previous natural DENV infection (DENV-1 and DENV-2 serotypes), as well as mosquito samples that tested negative for virus infection (DENV-negative). Our findings indicate that the Ae. aegypti virome exhibits a similar viral composition at the ISV family and species levels in both DENV-positive and DENV-negative samples across all study sites. However, differences were observed in the relative abundance of viral families such as Phenuiviridae, Partitiviridae, Flaviviridae, Rhabdoviridae, Picornaviridae, Bromoviridae, and Virgaviridae, depending on the serotype of DENV-1 and DENV-2. In addition, ISVs are frequently found in the core virome of Ae. aegypti, such as Phasi Charoen-like phasivirus (PCLV), which was the most prevalent and showed variable abundance in relation to the presence of specific DENV serotypes. Phylogenetic analyses of the L, M, and S segments of the PCLV genome are associated with sequences from different regions of the world but show close clustering with sequences from Brazil and Guadeloupe, indicating a shared evolutionary relationship. The profiling of the Ae. aegypti virome in Colombia presented here improves our understanding of viral diversity within mosquito vectors and provides information that opens the way to possible connections between ISVs and arboviruses. Future studies aimed at deepening our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the interactions between ISVs and DENV serotypes in Ae. aegypti could provide valuable information for the design of effective vector-borne viral disease control and prevention strategies.IMPORTANCEIn this study, we employed a metagenomic approach to characterize the virome of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, with and without natural DENV infection, in several regions of Colombia. Our findings indicate that the mosquito virome is predominantly composed of insect-specific viruses (ISVs) and that infection with different DENV serotypes (DENV-1 and DENV-2) could lead to alterations in the relative abundance of viral families and species constituting the core virome in Aedes spp. The study also sheds light on the identification of the genome and evolutionary relationships of the Phasi Charoen-like phasivirus in Ae. aegypti in Colombia, a widespread ISV in areas with high DENV incidence.

Arbovirus Transmission Predictions Are Affected by Both Temperature Data Source and Modeling Methodologies across Cities in Colombia

Weather variables has been described as major drivers of vector proliferation and arbovirus transmission. Among them, temperature has consistently been found to be impactful in transmission dynamics, and models that incorporate temperature have been widely used to evaluate and forecast transmission or arboviruses like dengue, zika, or chikungunya virus. Further, there is growing evidence of the importance of micro-environmental temperatures in driving transmission of Aedes aegypti-borne viruses, as these mosquitoes tend to live within domiciles. Yet there is still a considerable gap in our understanding of how accounting for micro-environmental temperatures in models varies from the use of other widely-used, macro-level temperature measures. This effort combines field-collected data of both indoor and outdoor household associated temperatures and weather station temperature data from three Colombian cities to describe the relationship between the measures representing temperature at the micro- and macro-levels. These data indicate that weather station data may not accurately capture the temperature profiles of indoor micro-environments. However, using these data sources, the basic reproductive number for arboviruses was calculated by means of three modeling efforts to investigate whether temperature measure differences translated to differential transmission predictions. Across all three cities, it was determined that the modeling method was more often impactful rather than the temperature data-source, though no consistent pattern was immediately clear. This suggests that temperature data sources and modeling methods are important for precision in arbovirus transmission predictions, and more studies are needed to parse out this complex interaction.

The Influence of Anthropogenic and Environmental Disturbances on Parameter Estimation of a Dengue Transmission Model

Some deterministic models deal with environmental conditions and use parameter estimations to obtain experimental parameters, but they do not consider anthropogenic or environmental disturbances, e.g., chemical control or climatic conditions. Even more, they usually use theoretical or measured in-lab parameters without worrying about uncertainties in initial conditions, parameters, or changes in control inputs. Thus, in this study, we estimate parameters (including chemical control parameters) and confidence contours under uncertainty conditions using data from the municipality of Bello (Colombia) during 2010-2014, which includes two epidemic outbreaks. Our study shows that introducing non-periodic pulse inputs into the mathematical model allows us to: (i) perform parameter estimation by fitting real data of consecutive dengue outbreaks, (ii) highlight the importance of chemical control as a method of vector control, and (iii) reproduce the endemic behavior of dengue. We described a methodology for parameter and sub-contour box estimation under uncertainties and performed reliable simulations showing the behavior of dengue spread in different scenarios.

Adaptation of a Human Diagnostic Kit to Detect Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya Viruses in Mosquito Samples (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus): A Contribution to Public Health in the International Triple Border (Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina)

Objective: The objective of this work was to adapt a diagnostic kit developed for humans to identify Dengue (DENV1, DENV2, DENV3, DENV4), Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in females of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and to verify if the occurrence of mosquitoes infected with these three arboviruses are being found in regions with high occurrence of these diseases in humans. Materials and Methods: For this purpose, live mosquitoes were captured between January and June 2020 using 3,476 traps permanently installed in the field were used. After capture, the species were identified, then the females were placed in a pool of 2 to 10 specimens and sent to the laboratory for detection of DENV1, DENV2, DENV3, DENV4, ZIKV and CHIKV by RT-PCR using a commercial human kit for arboviruses. Results: Of the 76 mosquito pools collected, six (7.9%) pools tested positive for the DENV2 virus. The DENV-positive mosquitoes were collected in regions with a high incidence of reported cases of Dengue or in adjacent areas. Conclusion: The absence of kits for the detection of these arboviruses in Aedes is a limiting factor and the adequacy of commercial kits, already used for the diagnosis of arboviruses in humans, the results presented demonstrate that it is possible to identify the presence of DENV2 in mosquitoes with the respective kit, reinforcing the use of RT-qPCR as a robust diagnostic tool for epidemiological surveillance allowing managers to receive timely results for decision-making regarding prevention and control actions.

Discrete Models in Epidemiology: New Contagion Probability Functions Based on Real Data Behavior

Mathematical modeling is a tool used for understanding diseases dynamics. The discrete-time model is an especial case in modeling that satisfactorily describes the epidemiological dynamics because of the discrete nature of the real data. However, discrete models reduce their descriptive and fitting potential because of assuming a homogeneous population. Thus, in this paper, we proposed contagion probability functions according to two infection paradigms that consider factors associated with transmission dynamics. For example, we introduced probabilities of establishing an infectious interaction, the number of contacts with infectious and the level of connectivity or social distance within populations. Through the probabilities design, we overcame the homogeneity assumption. Also, we evaluated the proposed probabilities through their introduction into discrete-time models for two diseases and different study zones with real data, COVID-19 for Germany and South Korea, and dengue for Colombia. Also, we described the oscillatory dynamics for the last one using the contagion probabilities alongside parameters with a biological sense. Finally, we highlight the implementation of the proposed probabilities would improve the simulation of the public policy effect of control strategies over an infectious disease outbreak.

Arbovirus infection in Aedes aegypti from different departments of Colombia

The lack of precise and timely knowledge about the molecular epidemiology of arboviruses of public health importance, particularly in the vector, has limited the comprehensive control of arboviruses. In Colombia and the Americas, entomovirological studies are scarce. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the frequency of natural infection and/or co-infection by Dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and Chikungunya (CHIKV) in Aedes spp. circulating in different departments of Colombia (Amazonas, Boyacá, Magdalena, and Vichada) and identifying vector species by barcoding. Aedes mosquitoes were collected in departments with reported prevalence or incidence of arbovirus cases during 2020–2021, located in different biogeographic zones of the country: Amazonas, Boyacá, Magdalena, and Vichada. The insects were processed individually for RNA extraction, cDNA synthesis, and subsequent detection of DENV (serotypes DENV1-4 by multiplex PCR), CHIKV, and ZIKV (qRT-PCR). The positive mosquitoes for arboviruses were sequenced (Sanger method) using the subunit I of the cytochrome oxidase (COI) gene for species-level identification. In total, 558 Aedes mosquitoes were captured, 28.1% (n = 157) predominantly infected by DENV in all departments. The serotypes with the highest frequency of infection were DENV-1 and DENV-2 with 10.7% (n = 58) and 14.5% (n = 81), respectively. Coinfections between serotypes represented 3.9% (n = 22). CHIKV infection was detected in one individual (0.2%), and ZIKV infections were not detected. All infected samples were identified as A. aegypti (100%). From the COI dataset (593 bp), high levels of haplotype diversity (H = 0.948 ± 0.012) and moderate nucleotide diversity (π = 0.0225 ± 0.003) were identified, suggesting recent population expansions. Constructed phylogenetic analyses showed our COI sequences’ association with lineage I, which was reported widespread and related to a West African conspecific. We conclude that natural infection in A. aegypti by arbovirus might reflect the country’s epidemiological behavior, with a higher incidence of serotypes DENV-1 and DENV-2, which may be associated with high seroprevalence and asymptomatic infections in humans. This study demonstrates the high susceptibility of this species to arbovirus infection and confirms that A. aegypti is the main vector in Colombia. The importance of including entomovirological surveillance strategy within public health systems to understand transmission dynamics and the potential risk to the population is highlighted herein.

The practicality of Malaysia dengue outbreak forecasting model as an early warning system

Dengue is a harmful tropical disease that causes death to many people. Currently, the dengue vaccine development is still at an early stage, and only intervention methods exist after dengue cases increase. Thus, previously, two scientific experimental field studies were conducted in producing a dengue outbreak forecasting model as an early warning system. Successfully, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) Model was developed using three factors: the epidemiological, entomological, and environmental with an accuracy of 85%; but a higher percentage is required in minimizing the error for the model to be useful. Hence, this study aimed to develop a practical and cost-effective dengue outbreak forecasting model with at least 90% accuracy to be embedded in an early warning computer system using the Internet of Things (IoT) approach. Eighty-one weeks of time series data of the three factors were used in six forecasting models, which were Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL), Hierarchical Forecasting (Bottom-up and Optimal combination) and three Machine Learning methods: (Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest). Five error measures were used to evaluate the consistency performance of the models in order to ensure model performance. The findings indicated Random Forest outperformed the other models with an accuracy of 95% when including all three factors. But practically, collecting mosquito related data (the entomological factor) was very costly and time consuming. Thus, it was removed from the model, and the accuracy dropped to 92% but still high enough to be of practical use, i.e., beyond 90%. However, the practical ground operationalization of the early warning system also requires several rain gauges to be located at the dengue hot spots due to localized rainfall. Hence, further analysis was conducted in determining the location of the rain gauges. This has led to the recommendation that the rain gauges should be located about 3–4 km apart at the dengue hot spots to ensure the accuracy of the rainfall data to be included in the dengue outbreak forecasting model so that it can be embedded in the early warning system. Therefore, this early warning system can save lives, and prevention is better than cure.

Entomovirological Surveillance in Schools: Are They a Source for Arboviral Diseases Transmission?

Surveillance and control activities for virus-transmitting mosquitoes have primarily focused on dwellings. There is little information about viral circulation in heavily trafficked places such as schools. We collected and analyzed data to assess the presence and prevalence of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in mosquitoes, and measured Aedes indices in schools in Medellín (Colombia) between 2016-2018. In 43.27% of 2632 visits we collected Aedes adults, creating 883 pools analyzed by RT-PCR. 14.27% of pools yielded positive for dengue or Zika (infection rates of 1.75-296.29 for Aedes aegypti). Ae. aegypti was more abundant and had a higher infection rate for all studied diseases. Aedes indices varied over time. There was no association between Aedes abundance and mosquito infection rates, but the latter did correlate with cases of arboviral disease and climate. Results suggest schools are important sources of arbovirus and health agencies should include these sites in surveillance programs; it is essential to know the source for arboviral diseases transmission and the identification of the most population groups exposed to these diseases to research and developing new strategies.

Climatic and socio-economic factors supporting the co-circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in three different ecosystems in Colombia

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are diseases of global health significance caused by arboviruses and transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is of worldwide circulation. The arrival of the Zika and chikungunya viruses to South America increased the complexity of transmission and morbidity caused by these viruses co-circulating in the same vector mosquito species. Here we present an integrated analysis of the reported arbovirus cases between 2007 and 2017 and local climate and socio-economic profiles of three distinct Colombian municipalities (Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá). These locations were confirmed as three different ecosystems given their contrasted geographic, climatic and socio-economic profiles. Correlational analyses were conducted with both generalised linear models and generalised additive models for the geographical data. Average temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed were strongly correlated with disease incidence. The transmission of Zika during the 2016 epidemic appeared to decrease circulation of dengue in Cúcuta, an area of sustained high incidence of dengue. Socio-economic factors such as barriers to health and childhood services, inadequate sanitation and poor water supply suggested an unfavourable impact on the transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in all three ecosystems. Socio-demographic influencers were also discussed including the influx of people to Cúcuta, fleeing political and economic instability from neighbouring Venezuela. Aedes aegypti is expanding its range and increasing the global threat of these diseases. It is therefore vital that we learn from the epidemiology of these arboviruses and translate it into an actionable local knowledge base. This is even more acute given the recent historical high of dengue cases in the Americas in 2019, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, which is itself hampering mosquito control efforts.

Surveillance of dengue virus in individual Aedes aegypti mosquitoes collected concurrently with suspected human cases in Tarlac City, Philippines

BACKGROUND

Vector control measures are critical for the prevention and reduction of dengue virus (DENV) transmission. Effective vector control is reliant not only on knowledge of mosquito abundance, but also on the timely and accurate detection of mosquito-borne infection. Mosquito-based virus surveillance programs typically rely on pool-based mosquito testing, although whether individual-based mosquito testing is a feasible alternative to this has not been widely studied. Applying an individual-based mosquito testing approach, we conducted a 1-month surveillance study of DENV in adult Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in homes of suspected dengue patients during the 2015 peak dengue season in Tarlac City, Philippines to more accurately assess the mosquito infection rate and identify the DENV serotypes and genotypes concurrently co-circulating in mosquitoes and patients there.

METHODS

We performed a one-step multiplex real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay for the simultaneous detection and serotyping of DENV in patients and individual female Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Additionally, we performed sequencing and phylogenetic analyses to further characterize the detected DENV serotypes in mosquitoes and patients at the genotype level.

RESULTS

We collected a total of 583 adult Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, of which we individually tested 359 female mosquitoes for the presence of DENV. Ten (2.8%) of the 359 female mosquitoes were positive for the presence of DENV. We detected DENV-1, DENV-2, and DENV-4 in the field-collected mosquitoes, which was consistent with the serotypes concurrently found in infected patients. Sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of the detected DENV serotypes based on the partial sequence of the evelope (E) gene revealed three genotypes concurrently present in the sampled mosquitoes and patients during the study period, namely DENV-1 genotype IV, DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype, and DENV-4 genotype II.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated the utility of a one-step multiplex real-time RT-PCR assay for the individual-based DENV surveillance of mosquitoes. Our findings reinforce the importance of detecting and monitoring virus activity in local mosquito populations, which are critical for dengue prevention and control.

Susceptibility to Insecticides and Natural Infection in Aedes aegypti: An Initiative to Improve the Mosquito Control Actions in Boyacá, Colombia

Background

Integrated management strategies for dengue prevention and control have been the main way to decrease the transmission of arboviruses transmitted by A. aegypti in Colombia. However, the increase of chikungunya (CHIKV), Zika, and dengue (DENV) fever cases suggests deficiencies in vector control strategies in some regions from this country.

Objective

This work aimed to establish a baseline susceptibility profile of A. aegypti to insecticides, determine the presence of kdr mutations associated with resistance to pyrethroids, and detect natural arbovirus infection in this vector from Moniquirá - Boyacá, one of the most endemic cities in Colombia.

Methods

Mosquitos were collected in six neighborhoods, and colonies established in the laboratory. Susceptibility to malathion and lambda-cyhalothrin insecticides was evaluated, and we examined the point mutations present in portions of domains I, II, III, and IV of the sodium channel gene using a simple allele-specific PCR-based assay (AS-PCR).

Findings

A. aegypti from Moniquirá showed decreased susceptibility to pyrethroid insecticides, and kdr mutations 419L, 1016I, and 1558C with allelic frequencies of 0.39, 0.40 and 0.95, respectively, were observed. The minimal infection rate (MIR) to DENV-1 was 44.1, while to CHIKV was 14.7.

Conclusions

We establish a baseline insecticide resistance, kdr mutations, and arbovirus circulation, which contain the elements necessary for the consolidation of a local surveillance strategy with an early warning system and rational selection and rotation of insecticides.

Relationships between traditional larval indices and meteorological factors with the adult density of Aedes albopictus captured by BG-mosquito trap

Objectives

Larval indices have been used for Ae. albopictus surveillance for many years, while there is limited use in assessing dengue transmission risk and adult mosquito emergence. This study is aimed to explore the relationships between larval indices and the Ae. albopictus density captured by BG-mosquito trap (BG-trap) method, with considering the meteorological factors.

Methods

Data on larval density, adult mosquito density and meteorology factors were collected in an entomological survey carried out in Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province of China in 2018. The Spearman’s rank correlation and Pearson correlation were used for the analysis on the correlation of density indices. Generalized additive models were established to analyze the influencing factors of mosquito density.

Results

Breteau index (BI), House index (HI) and Container index (CI) were highly correlated with each other (r>0.7, p<0.05). The Ae. albopictus density was significantly correlated with CI (rs = 0.260, p<0.05), CI pre one week (rs = 0.259, p<0.05), and CI pre three weeks (rs = 0.329, p<0.05). BI was correlated with female Ae. albopictus density pre 4 weeks (r = -0.299, p<0.05). Female Ae. albopictus density was correlated with CI pre 3 weeks (rs = 0.303, p<0.05). The influencing factors of BI were average wind speed pre 1 week, average temperature and female Ae. albopictus density pre 4 weeks. The influencing factors of CI were average humidity pre 3 weeks and average temperature. The influencing factors of HI were average temperature and precipitation pre 4 weeks. The influencing factor of Ae. albopictus density and female Ae. albopictus density was temperature.

Conclusions

The adult Ae. albopictus density had low correlation with certain larval indices. Some of the meteorology factors played significant roles in the density of adult Ae. albopictus and larva with or without a time lag.

Sensitivity, uncertainty and identifiability analyses to define a dengue transmission model with real data of an endemic municipality of Colombia

Dengue disease is a major problem for public health surveillance entities in tropical and subtropical regions having a significant impact not only epidemiological but social and economical. There are many factors involved in the dengue transmission process. We can evaluate the importance of these factors through the formulation of mathematical models. However, the majority of the models presented in the literature tend to be overparameterized, with considerable uncertainty levels and excessively complex formulations. We aim to evaluate the structure, complexity, trustworthiness, and suitability of three models, for the transmission of dengue disease, through different strategies. To achieve this goal, we perform structural and practical identifiability, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to these models. The results showed that the simplest model was the most appropriate and reliable when the only available information to fit them is the cumulative number of reported dengue cases in an endemic municipality of Colombia.

Prevalence of dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses in Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in a medium-sized city, Amazon, Brazil

Aedes aegypti is associated with epidemic diseases in Brazil, such as urban yellow fever, dengue, and more recently, chikungunya and Zika viruses infections. More information about Ae. aegypti infestation is fundamental to virological surveillance in order to ensure the effectiveness of control measures in use. Thus, the present study aims to identify and compare infestation and infectivity of Ae. aegypti females in Macapa city, Amapa State (Amazon region), Brazil, between the epidemiological weeks 2017/02 and 2018/20. A total number of 303 Ae. aegypti females were collected at 21 fixed collection points, 171 at the 10 collection points in the Marabaixo neighborhood and 132 at the 11 collection points in the Central neighborhood. Among the collected samples, only two were positive for dengue virus, with a 2.08% (2/96 pools) infectivity rate for Marabaixo. The difference between the medians of Ae. aegypti females captured in Central and Marabaixo sites was not statistically significant. The findings indicate similar mosquito infestation levels between the neighborhoods, and a low-level of mosquito infectivity, although dengue virus was found only in Marabaixo. Virological surveillance of Ae. aegypti was important to identify sites of infection and determine possible routes of transmission to enable health surveillance teams to adopt preventive strategies where infected mosquitoes are present and act faster.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

A framework for evaluating the effects of observational type and quality on vector-borne disease forecast

Recent research has advanced infectious disease forecasting from an aspiration to an operational reality. The accuracy of such operational forecasting depends on the quantity and quality of observations available for system optimization. In particular, for forecasting systems that use combined mechanistic model-inference approaches, a broad suite of epidemiological observations could be utilized, if these data were available in near real time. In cases where such data are limited, an in silica, synthetic framework for evaluating the potential benefits of observations on forecasting accuracy can allow researchers and public health officials to more optimally allocate resources for disease surveillance and monitoring. Here, we demonstrate the application of such a framework, using a model-inference system designed to predict dengue, and identify the type and quality of observations that would improve forecasting accuracy.

Prevalence and Distribution of Dengue Virus in Aedes aegypti in Yogyakarta City before Deployment of Wolbachia Infected Aedes aegypti

Indonesia is one of the countries where dengue infection is prevalent. In this study we measure the prevalence and distribution of dengue virus (DENV) DENV-infected Aedes aegypti in Yogyakarta City, Indonesia, during the wet season when high dengue transmission period occurred, as baseline data before implementation of a Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti trial for dengue control. We applied One-Step Multiplex Real Time PCR (RT-PCR) for the type-specific-detection of dengue viruses in field-caught adult Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In a prospective field study conducted from December 2015 to May 2016, adult female Aedes aegypti were caught from selected areas in Yogyakarta City, and then screened by using RT-PCR. During the survey period, 36 (0.12%) mosquitoes from amongst 29,252 female mosquitoes were positive for a DENV type. In total, 22.20% of dengue-positive mosquitoes were DENV-1, 25% were DENV-2, 17% were DENV-3, but none were positive for DENV-4. This study has provided dengue virus infection prevalence in field-caught Aedes aegypti and its circulating serotype in Yogyakarta City before deployment of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti.

Estimation of DENV-2 Transmission as a Function of Site-Specific Entomological Parameters from Three Cities in Colombia

Background:

Measuring dengue virus transmission in endemic areas is a difficult task as many variables drive transmission, and often are not independent of one another.

Objectives:

We aimed to determine the utility of vectorial capacity to explain the observed dengue infection rates in three hyperendemic cities in Colombia, and tested hypotheses related to three variables: mosquito density, effective vector competence, and biting rate.

Methods:

We estimated two of the most influential entomological variables related to cumulative vectorial capacity, which is a modification of the traditional vectorial capacity equation, of three Colombian mosquito populations. Laboratory studies were undertaken to measure vector competence and man biting rate of local mosquito populations. In addition, the assessment of cumulative vectorial capacity also incorporated site-specific estimations of mosquito density and the probability of daily survival from previous studies conducted in those cities.

Findings:

We found that the biting rates and mosquito infection rates differed among populations of mosquitoes from these three cities, resulting in differences in the site-specific measures of transmission potential. Specifically, we found that using site-specific entomological measures to populate the cumulative vectorial capacity equation was best at recapitulating observed mosquito infection rates when mosquito density was discounted compared to when we incorporated site-specific density measures.

Conclusions:

Specific mosquito-biting rate is likely sufficient to explain transmission differences in these three cities, confirming that this parameter is a critical parameter when predicting and assessing dengue transmission in three Colombian cities with different field observed transmission patterns.

Vector competence analysis of two Aedes aegypti lineages from Bello, Colombia, reveals that they are affected similarly by dengue-2 virus infection

Dengue is the second most prevalent vector-borne disease after malaria in Colombia. It is caused by dengue virus, an arbovirus that exhibits high epidemic power, which is evidenced by its occurrence in more than 80% of the country, largely because of the extensive dispersion of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti. The existence of two lineages of Ae. aegypti has been proposed based on genetic differences at the mitochondrial level, and they have been reported to circulate in similar proportions in the municipality of Bello (Colombia). It has been suggested that the differentiation of these lineages could influence features such as vector competence (VC) and life table. With the aim of testing this hypothesis, female mosquitoes from both lineages collected from Bello were orally challenged with dengue virus serotype 2 (strain D2-HAN) to measure infection, dissemination, survival and fecundity. Analysis of VC showed an increase in viral titer over time; however, no significant differences were observed between the lineages. The survival rate was not different between the infected lineages, but comparing lineages, it was lower in infected mosquitoes, which may affect the intensity of transmission. Finally, we conclude that the genetic differentiation of Ae. aegypti into lineages did not confer differences in epidemiological status when the mosquitoes were infected with this D2 serotype strain.

Factors determining dengue outbreak in Malaysia

A large scale study was conducted to elucidate the true relationship among entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors that contributed to dengue outbreak in Malaysia. Two large areas (Selayang and Bandar Baru Bangi) were selected in this study based on five consecutive years of high dengue cases. Entomological data were collected using ovitraps where the number of larvae was used to reflect Aedes mosquito population size; followed by RT-PCR screening to detect and serotype dengue virus in mosquitoes. Notified cases, date of disease onset, and number and type of the interventions were used as epidemiological endpoint, while rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and air pollution index (API) were indicators for environmental data. The field study was conducted during 81 weeks of data collection. Correlation and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model were used to determine the relationship. The study showed that, notified cases were indirectly related with the environmental data, but shifted one week, i.e. last 3 weeks positive PCR; last 4 weeks rainfall; last 3 weeks maximum relative humidity; last 3 weeks minimum and maximum temperature; and last 4 weeks air pollution index (API), respectively. Notified cases were also related with next week intervention, while conventional intervention only happened 4 weeks after larvae were found, indicating ample time for dengue transmission. Based on a significant relationship among the three factors (epidemiological, entomological and environmental), estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model for both locations produced high accuracy 84.9% for Selayang and 84.1% for Bandar Baru Bangi in predicting the actual notified cases. Hence, such model can be used in forestalling dengue outbreak and acts as an early warning system. The existence of relationships among the entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors can be used to build an early warning system for the prediction of dengue outbreak so that preventive interventions can be taken early to avert the outbreaks.

Variants in the TNFA, IL6 and IFNG genes are associated with the dengue severity in a sample from Colombian population

Introducción. La composición genética del huésped determina, entre otros aspectos, el perfil clínico del dengue, lo cual se debería al efecto de variantes en los genes que codifican citocinas proinflamatorias.Objetivo. Evaluar la asociación entre las variantes de tres polimorfismos en los genes candidatos TNFA, IL6 e IFNG con la gravedad del dengue en una población colombiana.Materiales y métodos. Se evaluaron los polimorfismos rs1800750, rs2069843 y rs2069705 de los genes TNFA, IL6 e IFNG, respectivamente, en 226 pacientes con dengue. Los genotipos se tipificaron usando la reacción en cadena de la polimerasa (PCR) y los polimorfismos de la longitud de los fragmentos de restricción (Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism, RFLP). Para determinar el riesgo de diferentes fenotipos del dengue, se compararon las frecuencias alélicas con la prueba de ji al cuadrado, y los genotipos y los haplotipos, con regresión logística. Por último, los análisis se ajustaron utilizando datos de autoidentificación o del componente genético ancestral.Resultados. El alelo A del rs2069843, ajustado por autoidentificación, se asoció con casos de dengue hemorrágico en afrocolombianos. En la muestra completa, dicho polimorfismo, ajustado por componente genético ancestral, fue reproducible. Además, hubo asociaciones significativas entre las combinaciones alélicas GGT y GAC de los rs1800750, rs2069843 y rs2069705 en pacientes con dengue hemorrágico, con ajuste por componente genético ancestral y sin él. Además, la combinación alélica AGC produjo 58,03 pg/ml más de interleucina 6 que la GGC, independientemente de los componentes genéticos europeo, amerindio y africano.Conclusión. Las variantes de los polimorfismos GGT y GAC de los rs1800750, rs2069843 y rs2069705 en los genes TNFA, IL6 e IFNG, respectivamente, se correlacionaron con la gravedad del dengue en esta muestra de población colombiana.

Dengue serotype circulation in natural populations of Aedes aegypti

Ae. aegypti is the main vector of dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses. The transmission dynamics of these arboviruses, especially the arboviral circulation in the mosquito population during low and high transmission seasons in endemic areas are still poorly understood. We conducted an entomological survey to determine dengue infection rates in Ae. aegypti and Aedes albopictus. These collections were performed in 2012-2013 during a Rio de Janeiro epidemic, just before the introduction and spread of ZIKV and CHIKV in the city. MosquiTrap^© and BG-Sentinel traps were installed in three fixed and seven itinerant neighborhoods each month over ten months. Mosquitoes were in supernatants pools tested and individually confirmed for DENV infection using RT-PCR. A total of 3053 Aedes mosquitos were captured and Ae. aegypti was much more frequent (92.9%) than Ae. albopictus (6.8%). Ae. aegypti females accounted for 71.8% of captured mosquitoes by MosquitTrap^© and were the only species found naturally infected with DENV (infection rate=0.81%). Only one Ae. aegypti male, collected by BG-sentinel, was also tested positive for DENV. The peak of DENV-positive mosquitoes coincided the season of the highest incidence of human cases. The most common serotypes detected in mosquitoes were DENV-3 (24%) and DENV-1 (24%), followed by DENV-4 (20%), DENV-2 (8%) and DENV-1 plus DENV4 (4%), while 95% of laboratory-confirmed human infections in the period were due to DENV-4. These contrasting results suggest silent maintenance of DENV serotypes during the epidemics, reinforcing the importance of entomological and viral surveillance in endemic areas.

Estimating Effects of Temperature on Dengue Transmission in Colombian Cities

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is a viral disease that affects tropical and subtropical regions of the world. It is well known that processes related to virus transmission by mosquitoes are highly influenced by weather. Temperature has been described as one of the climatic variables that largely governs the development and survival of mosquito eggs as well as the survival of all insect stages. Previously, we noted that high temperatures in the Colombian city of Riohacha negatively affect the establishment of dengue virus (DENV) infection in mosquitoes; in Bello and Villavicencio cities, which have lower average temperatures, DENV infection rates in mosquitoes are positively associated with a gradual increase in temperature. Here, we test the hypothesis that a similar effect of temperature can be detected in the incidence in the human population inhabiting dengue-endemic cities in Colombia.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to evaluate the effect of climate variables related to temperature on DENV incidence in human populations living in DENV-endemic cities in Colombia.

METHODS

Epidemiologic data from the Instituto Nacional de Salud from 2012-2015 and 7 variables related to temperature were used to perform Spearman rank sum test analyses on 20 Colombian cities. Additionally, locally estimated scatterplot smoothing analyses were performed to describe the relationship among temperatures and incidence.

FINDINGS

Results indicated that Colombian cities with average and maximum temperatures greater than 28°C and 32°C, respectively, had an inversely related relationship to DENV incidence, which is in accordance with areas where higher temperatures are recorded in Colombia.

CONCLUSION

Climatic variables related to temperature affect dengue epidemiology in different way. According to the temperature of each city, transmission might be positively or negatively affected.