1
|
Yadav CP, Hussain SSA, Mullick R, Rahi M, Sharma A. Climate zones are a key component of the heterogeneous presentation of malaria and should be added as a malariometric for the planning of malaria elimination. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0001878. [PMID: 37379340 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Accepted: 05/25/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023]
Abstract
Malaria is a climate-sensitive disease and different climatic conditions affect the propagation of malaria vectors thereby influencing malaria incidence. The present study was undertaken to delineate malaria distribution across different climate types and sub-types in India and assess its significance as a malariometric in the ongoing elimination activities. All Indian districts were classified into three major climatic zones (Tropical, Temperate, and others (Arid, Cold, and Polar) based on the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system. The Annual Parasite Incidence (API) of malaria was analyzed in these climatic zones using the Kruskal Wallis test, and a post hoc comparison was done using the rank-sum test with an adjusted p-value for the level of significance. Further logistic regression was used to investigate the association of these climatic zones with high malaria incidence (i.e., API>1). The majority of Indian districts fall in Temperate (N = 270/692 (39.0%)) and Tropical (N = 260/692 (37.6%)) regions, followed by Arid (N = 140/692 (20.2%)), Polar (N = 13/692 (1.9%)) and Cold (N = 9/692 (1.3%)) regions. Three climate zones: Arid, Polar, and Cold were similar in terms of malaria incidence over the years and thus were grouped into one. It was found that the tropical and temperate zones display a significantly higher burden of malaria as compared to others for the studied years (2016-2021). Future projections of climate suggest a significant expansion of tropical monsoon climate towards central and northern India, along with a growing footprint of tropical wet savannah climate in the northeast of India by 2100, which could increase the risk of malaria transmission in these regions. The heterogeneous climatic zones of India play an important role in malaria transmission and can be used as a malariometric for the stratification of districts destined for malaria elimination.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chander Prakash Yadav
- ICMR-National Institute of Cancer Prevention & Research (NICPR), Noida, UP, India
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research (NIMR), New Delhi, India
- Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, India
| | - Syed Shah Areeb Hussain
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research (NIMR), New Delhi, India
- Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, India
| | - Rajit Mullick
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research (NIMR), New Delhi, India
- Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, India
| | - Manju Rahi
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research (NIMR), New Delhi, India
- Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, India
- Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Amit Sharma
- Molecular Medicine Group, International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, New Delhi, India
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Guin P, Kumar EL, Mukhopadhyay I. Do climatic and socioeconomic factors explain population vulnerability to malaria? Evidence from a national survey, India. Indian J Public Health 2023; 67:226-234. [PMID: 37459017 DOI: 10.4103/ijph.ijph_964_22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Malaria remains a public health challenge across several African and South-East Asia Region countries, including India, despite making gains in malaria-related morbidity and mortality. Poor climatic and socioeconomic factors are known to increase population vulnerability to malaria. However, there is scant literature from India exploring this link using large population-based data. Objectives This study aims to study the role of climatic and socioeconomic factors in determining population vulnerability to malaria in India. Materials and Methods We used logistic regression models on a nationally representative sample of 91,207 households, obtained from the National Sample Survey Organization (69th round), to study the determinants of household vulnerability. Results Households that resided in high (odds ratio [OR]: 1.876, P < 0.01) and moderately high (OR: 3.427, P < 0.01), compared to low climatically vulnerable states were at greater odds of suffering from malaria. Among households that faced the problem of mosquitoes/flies compared to the reference group, the urban households were at higher risk of suffering from malaria (OR: 8.318, P < 0.01) compared to rural households (OR: 2.951, P < 0.01). Households from the lower income quintiles, caste, poor physical condition of their houses, poor garbage management, and water stagnation around the source of drinking water, strongly predicted malaria vulnerability. Conclusion Household's vulnerability to malaria differed according to state climatic vulnerability level and socioeconomic factors. More efforts by integrating local endemicity, epidemiological, and entomological information about malaria transmission must be considered while designing malaria mitigation strategies for better prevention and treatment outcomes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Pradeep Guin
- Associate Professor, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, O. P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana, India
| | | | - Indranil Mukhopadhyay
- Professor, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, O. P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana, India
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Roy SS. Spatial patterns of malaria case burden and seasonal precipitation in India during 1995-2013. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:157-164. [PMID: 36287259 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02395-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2021] [Revised: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The majority of malaria cases in Southeast Asia occur in India. It is a major public health problem in India, which accounts for substantial morbidity, mortality, and economic loss. The spatial distribution of malaria widely varies due to geo-ecological diversity, multi-ethnicity, and wide distribution of the different anopheline vectors. The predominant malaria parasites in India for malaria are P. Falciparum (Pf) and P. Vivax (Pv). This study analyzes the spatial patterns of malaria cases, specifically the two dominant malaria vectors, at the regional level and its relation to seasonal precipitation. The results of our study revealed an overall decline in malaria cases in the later years. The spatial spread of malaria cases was more widespread during the normal monsoon years vs drought years, which can be attributed to more conducive environment for mosquitos to breed. The correlation analysis revealed a stronger correlation between malaria case burden and monsoon precipitation. Spatially, the strongest correlation between seasonal and annual precipitation, and malaria case burden were located across the northern plains and northeast India. The results of this research further our understanding of the relationship between seasonal precipitation and malaria case burden at the regional level across India.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Shouraseni Sen Roy
- Department of Geography & Sustainable Development, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Rajput P, Singh S, Singh TB, Mall RK. The nexus between climate change and public health: a global overview with perspectives for Indian cities. ARABIAN JOURNAL OF GEOSCIENCES 2023; 16:15. [PMCID: PMC9765391 DOI: 10.1007/s12517-022-11099-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is widely recognized as a major threat to public health. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6), assessing different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), projects that relative to 1850–1900, the global temperature is rising and would exceed 2 °C during the twenty-first century under the high (SSP3-7.0) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered. Populations within tropical and subtropical regions are more likely to experience increased vulnerability towards heat stress. In this study, a summary of some of the important aspects of climate change and human health has been presented. The effects of climate change on India’s energy demand, employment, labor market and benefits have also been highlighted. Finally, we have discussed the national policies implemented or action underway to mitigate climate change and improve public health and have also provided some recommendations to carry forward. The current study overviewing the nexus between climate change and public health has a major aim to provide a perspective towards strengthening the health system in Indian cities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Prashant Rajput
- DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, IESD, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221 005 India
| | - Saumya Singh
- DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, IESD, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221 005 India
| | - Tej Bali Singh
- Centre of Biostatistics, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221 005 India
| | - Rajesh Kumar Mall
- DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, IESD, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221 005 India
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Kumar G, Gupta SK, Rahi M, Sharma A. Challenges in Understanding the Bionomics of Indian Malaria Vectors. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2022; 107:1005-1014. [PMID: 36096410 PMCID: PMC9709009 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.22-0137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Many factors influence the success or failure of malaria vector control program such as political will, leadership, sustained funding, robustness of healthcare system and others. In addition, updated knowledge and information about the triad of host, parasite, and vector is of paramount importance. Vector bionomics studies that determine mosquito behavior in terms of feeding, resting, biting, mating, breeding, longevity, vectorial capacity, and response to different insecticides are a step towards enhancing our understanding. In the present work, we have compiled studies conducted in India over the past two decades (2000-2020) to identify gaps in our knowledge of malaria vector bionomics and the research that needs to be done in the future. We retrieved district-level data of India's six primary malaria vector species. According to our findings, vector bionomics studies have been undertaken in ∼50% and ∼15% of the country's high (annual parasite index > 1) and low (annual parasite index < 1) malaria-endemic districts respectively. Most of the research studies focused on mosquito density, insecticide susceptibility status, and parasite detection, whereas other vital bionomics parameters were neglected. Surveys conducted were incomplete, and vector bionomics data were not captured sufficiently. The absence of vector bionomics data can be a blind spot and the lack or inadequate understanding of vector bionomics can lead to use of inappropriate vector control tools. Thus, there is an urgent need to initiate comprehensive bionomics studies on India's primary and secondary malaria vectors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Gaurav Kumar
- National Institute of Malaria Research, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Manju Rahi
- National Institute of Malaria Research, New Delhi, India
- Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Amit Sharma
- National Institute of Malaria Research, New Delhi, India
- Molecular Medicine Group, International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, New Delhi, India
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Rahimi-Ardabili H, Magrabi F, Coiera E. Digital health for climate change mitigation and response: a scoping review. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2022; 29:2140-2152. [PMID: 35960171 PMCID: PMC9667157 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocac134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Revised: 06/23/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Climate change poses a major threat to the operation of global health systems, triggering large scale health events, and disrupting normal system operation. Digital health may have a role in the management of such challenges and in greenhouse gas emission reduction. This scoping review explores recent work on digital health responses and mitigation approaches to climate change. MATERIALS AND METHODS We searched Medline up to February 11, 2022, using terms for digital health and climate change. Included articles were categorized into 3 application domains (mitigation, infectious disease, or environmental health risk management), and 6 technical tasks (data sensing, monitoring, electronic data capture, modeling, decision support, and communication). The review was PRISMA-ScR compliant. RESULTS The 142 included publications reported a wide variety of research designs. Publication numbers have grown substantially in recent years, but few come from low- and middle-income countries. Digital health has the potential to reduce health system greenhouse gas emissions, for example by shifting to virtual services. It can assist in managing changing patterns of infectious diseases as well as environmental health events by timely detection, reducing exposure to risk factors, and facilitating the delivery of care to under-resourced areas. DISCUSSION While digital health has real potential to help in managing climate change, research remains preliminary with little real-world evaluation. CONCLUSION Significant acceleration in the quality and quantity of digital health climate change research is urgently needed, given the enormity of the global challenge.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hania Rahimi-Ardabili
- Centre for Health Informatics, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, Macquarie Park, NSW, Australia
| | - Farah Magrabi
- Centre for Health Informatics, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, Macquarie Park, NSW, Australia
| | - Enrico Coiera
- Centre for Health Informatics, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, Macquarie Park, NSW, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Semenza JC, Rocklöv J, Ebi KL. Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease. Infect Dis Ther 2022; 11:1371-1390. [PMID: 35585385 PMCID: PMC9334478 DOI: 10.1007/s40121-022-00647-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 04/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is adversely affecting the burden of infectious disease throughout the world, which is a health security threat. Climate-sensitive infectious disease includes vector-borne diseases such as malaria, whose transmission potential is expected to increase because of enhanced climatic suitability for the mosquito vector in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Climatic suitability for the mosquitoes that can carry dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is also likely to increase, facilitating further increases in the geographic range and longer transmission seasons, and raising concern for expansion of these diseases into temperate zones, particularly under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Early spring temperatures in 2018 seem to have contributed to the early onset and extensive West Nile virus outbreak in Europe, a pathogen expected to expand further beyond its current distribution, due to a warming climate. As for tick-borne diseases, climate change is projected to continue to contribute to the spread of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, particularly in North America and Europe. Schistosomiasis is a water-borne disease and public health concern in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia; climate change is anticipated to change its distribution, with both expansions and contractions expected. Other water-borne diseases that cause diarrheal diseases have declined significantly over the last decades owing to socioeconomic development and public health measures but changes in climate can reverse some of these positive developments. Weather and climate events, population movement, land use changes, urbanization, global trade, and other drivers can catalyze a succession of secondary events that can lead to a range of health impacts, including infectious disease outbreaks. These cascading risk pathways of causally connected events can result in large-scale outbreaks and affect society at large. We review climatic and other cascading drivers of infectious disease with projections under different climate change scenarios. Supplementary file1 (MP4 328467 KB).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany.
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 901 87, Umeå, Sweden
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer Feld 205, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Kumar G, Ojha VP, Dhiman RC. Insecticide susceptibility status of malaria vectors in Himachal Pradesh, India. J Vector Borne Dis 2022; 59:236-240. [PMID: 36511039 DOI: 10.4103/0972-9062.342394] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES The state of Himachal Pradesh is one of the hilly forested states of India. Warming of climate has been evidenced in the state due to the ongoing climate change which may cause the upsurge/introduction of mosquito-borne diseases. To curb disease transmission, an effective vector control strategy will be required. METHODS Insecticide susceptibility status of available malaria vectors was determined using the standard WHO method in six districts Kangra, Una, Mandi, Bilaspur, Solan and Mandi of the state. An. culicifacies and An. fluviatilis were tested against DDT (4%), malathion (5%) and deltamethrin (0.05%) using WHO insecticide susceptibility kits. RESULTS Overall, An. culicifacies was found resistant to DDT in all the six districts, susceptible to malathion in all districts except Bilaspur and Solan where it showed possible resistance. It was susceptible to deltamethrin in all the study districts. An. fluviatilis was resistant to DDT and susceptible to malathion and deltamethrin in Kangra and Una districts. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION At present, indoor residual spraying (IRS) is not being undertaken in Himachal Pradesh. However, with the information generated through the present study, the state government can plan evidence-based IRS at least for focal spray in limited foci reporting malaria incidence.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Gaurav Kumar
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Delhi, India
| | - V P Ojha
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Delhi, India
| | | |
Collapse
|
9
|
Hussain SSA, Dhiman RC. Distribution Expansion of Dengue Vectors and Climate Change in India. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2021GH000477. [PMID: 35769847 PMCID: PMC9210256 DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Revised: 01/08/2022] [Accepted: 02/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
India has witnessed a five-fold increase in dengue incidence in the past decade. However, the nation-wide distribution of dengue vectors, and the impacts of climate change are not known. In this study, species distribution modeling was used to predict the baseline and future distribution of Aedine vectors in India on the basis of biologically relevant climatic indicators. Known occurrences of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database and previous literature. Bio-climatic variables were used as the potential predictors of vector distribution. After eliminating collinear and low contributing predictors, the baseline and future prevalence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus was determined, under three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), using the MaxEnt species distribution model. Aedes aegypti was found prevalent in most parts of the southern peninsula, the eastern coastline, north eastern states and the northern plains. In contrast, Aedes albopictus has localized distribution along the eastern and western coastlines, north eastern states and in the lower Himalayas. Under future scenarios of climate change, Aedes aegypti is projected to expand into unsuitable regions of the Thar desert, whereas Aedes albopictus is projected to expand to the upper and trans Himalaya regions of the north. Overall, the results provide a reliable assessment of vectors prevalence in most parts of the country that can be used to guide surveillance efforts, despite minor disagreements with dengue incidence in Rajasthan and the north east, possibly due to behavioral practices and sampling efforts.
Collapse
|
10
|
Parihar RS, Bal PK, Saini A, Mishra SK, Thapliyal A. Potential future malaria transmission in Odisha due to climate change. Sci Rep 2022; 12:9048. [PMID: 35641573 PMCID: PMC9156684 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-13166-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 05/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Future projections of malaria transmission is made for Odisha, a highly endemic region of India, through numerical simulations using the VECTRI dynamical model. The model is forced with bias-corrected temperature and rainfall from a global climate model (CCSM4) for the baseline period 1975–2005 and for the projection periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP8.5 emission scenario. The temperature, rainfall, mosquito density and entomological inoculation rate (EIR), generated from the VECTRI model are evaluated with the observation and analyzed further to estimate the future malaria transmission over Odisha on a spatio-temporal scale owing to climate change. Our results reveal that the malaria transmission in Odisha as a whole during summer and winter monsoon seasons may decrease in future due to the climate change except in few districts with the high elevations and dense forest regions such as Kandhamal, Koraput, Raygada and Mayurbhanj districts where an increase in malaria transmission is found. Compared to the baseline period, mosquito density shows decrease in most districts of the south, southwest, central, north and northwest regions of Odisha in 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. An overall decrease in malaria transmission of 20–40% (reduction in EIR) is seen during the monsoon season (June-Sept) over Odisha with the increased surface temperature of 3.5–4 °C and with the increased rainfall of 20–35% by the end of the century with respect to the baseline period. Furthermore, malaria transmission is likely to reduce in future over most of the Odisha regions with the increase in future warm and cold nights temperatures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ruchi Singh Parihar
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India.,Graphic Era Deemed to be University, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
| | | | - Atul Saini
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India.,Delhi School of Climate Change and Sustainability, Institution of Eminence, University of Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Saroj Kanta Mishra
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India
| | - Ashish Thapliyal
- Graphic Era Deemed to be University, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Di Napoli C, McGushin A, Romanello M, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Cai W, Chambers J, Dasgupta S, Escobar LE, Kelman I, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, McMichael C, Moradi-Lakeh M, Murray KA, Rabbaniha M, Semenza JC, Shi L, Tabatabaei M, Trinanes JA, Vu BN, Brimicombe C, Robinson EJ. Tracking the impacts of climate change on human health via indicators: lessons from the Lancet Countdown. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:663. [PMID: 35387618 PMCID: PMC8985369 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13055-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2022] [Indexed: 03/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the past decades, climate change has been impacting human lives and health via extreme weather and climate events and alterations in labour capacity, food security, and the prevalence and geographical distribution of infectious diseases across the globe. Climate change and health indicators (CCHIs) are workable tools designed to capture the complex set of interdependent interactions through which climate change is affecting human health. Since 2015, a novel sub-set of CCHIs, focusing on climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability indicators (CCIEVIs) has been developed, refined, and integrated by Working Group 1 of the "Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change", an international collaboration across disciplines that include climate, geography, epidemiology, occupation health, and economics. DISCUSSION This research in practice article is a reflective narrative documenting how we have developed CCIEVIs as a discrete set of quantifiable indicators that are updated annually to provide the most recent picture of climate change's impacts on human health. In our experience, the main challenge was to define globally relevant indicators that also have local relevance and as such can support decision making across multiple spatial scales. We found a hazard, exposure, and vulnerability framework to be effective in this regard. We here describe how we used such a framework to define CCIEVIs based on both data availability and the indicators' relevance to climate change and human health. We also report on how CCIEVIs have been improved and added to, detailing the underlying data and methods, and in doing so provide the defining quality criteria for Lancet Countdown CCIEVIs. CONCLUSIONS Our experience shows that CCIEVIs can effectively contribute to a world-wide monitoring system that aims to track, communicate, and harness evidence on climate-induced health impacts towards effective intervention strategies. An ongoing challenge is how to improve CCIEVIs so that the description of the linkages between climate change and human health can become more and more comprehensive.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK. .,Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK.,School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton Falmer, UK.,United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Science, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, UK.,Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Venice, Italy.,Università Ca' Foscari, Venice, Italy
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.,Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK.,University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Dominic Kniveton
- School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton Falmer, UK
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain.,Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain.,Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Unit The Gambia At London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries (AKUATROP), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia.,Henan Province Forest Resources Sustainable Development and High-value Utilization Engineering Research Center, School of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China
| | - Joaquin A Trinanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | - Bryan N Vu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | - Chloe Brimicombe
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Elizabeth J Robinson
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Dhimal M, Bhandari D, Dhimal ML, Kafle N, Pyakurel P, Mahotra N, Akhtar S, Ismail T, Dhiman RC, Groneberg DA, Shrestha UB, Müller R. Impact of Climate Change on Health and Well-Being of People in Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: A Narrative Review. Front Physiol 2021; 12:651189. [PMID: 34421631 PMCID: PMC8378503 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2021.651189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change and variability affect virtually everyone and every region of the world but the effects are nowhere more prominent than in mountain regions and people living therein. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is a vast expanse encompassing 18% of the world’s mountainous area. Sprawling over 4.3 million km2, the HKH region occupies areas of eight countries namely Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan. The HKH region is warming at a rate higher than the global average and precipitation has also increased significantly over the last 6 decades along with increased frequency and intensity of some extreme events. Changes in temperature and precipitation have affected and will like to affect the climate-dependent sectors such as hydrology, agriculture, biodiversity, and human health. This paper aims to document how climate change has impacted and will impact, health and well-being of the people in the HKH region and offers adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on health and well-being of the people. In the HKH region, climate change boosts infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malnutrition, and injuries. Hence, climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are needed urgently to safeguard vulnerable populations residing in the HKH region.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Meghnath Dhimal
- Nepal Health Research Council, Kathmandu, Nepal.,Global Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies, Lalitpur, Nepal
| | - Dinesh Bhandari
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal
- Global Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies, Lalitpur, Nepal.,Policy Research Institute, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | | | - Prajjwal Pyakurel
- Department of Community Medicine, BP Koirala Institute of Health Sciences, Dharan, Nepal
| | - Narayan Mahotra
- Institute of Medicine, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Saeed Akhtar
- Institute of Food Science and Nutrition, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan
| | - Tariq Ismail
- Institute of Food Science and Nutrition, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan
| | - Ramesh C Dhiman
- ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, New Delhi, India
| | - David A Groneberg
- Institute of Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | | | - Ruth Müller
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Kerteszia cruzii and extra-Amazonian malaria in Brazil: Challenges due to climate change in the Atlantic Forest. INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION 2020; 85:104456. [PMID: 32668366 DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104456] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2020] [Revised: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 07/05/2020] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Kerteszia cruzii is a sylvatic mosquito and the primary vector of Plasmodium spp., which can cause malaria in humans in areas outside the Amazon River basin in Brazil. Anthropic changes in the natural environments are the major drivers of massive deforestation and local climate change, with serious impacts on the dynamics of mosquito communities and on the risk of acquiring malaria. Considering the lack of information on the dynamics of malaria transmission in areas across the Atlantic Forest biome, where Ke. cruzii is the dominant vector, and the impact of climate drivers of malaria, the present study aimed to: (i) investigate the occurrence and survival rate of Ke. cruzii based on the distinct vegetation profiles found in areas across the coastal region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome; (ii) estimate the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and survival rates of P. vivax and P. falciparum parasites in Ke. cruzii under current and future scenarios. The potential distribution of Plasmodium spp. was estimated using simulation analyses under distinct scenarios of average temperature increases from 1 °C to 3.7 °C. Our results showed that two conditions are necessary to explain the occurrence and survival of Ke. cruzii: warm temperature and presence of the Atlantic Forest biome. Moreover, both Plasmodium species showed a tendency to decrease their EIP and increase their estimated survival rates in a scenario of higher temperature. Our findings support that the high-risk malaria areas may include the southern region of the distribution range of the Atlantic Forest biome in the coming years. Despite its limitations and assumptions, the present study provides robust evidence of areas with potential to be impacted by malaria incidence in a future scenario. These areas should be monitored in the next decades regarding the occurrence of the mosquito vector and the potential for malaria persistence and increased occurrence.
Collapse
|