Pathogen-Specific Impacts of the 2011-2012 La Niña-Associated Floods on Enteric Infections in the MAL-ED Peru Cohort: A Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Exploring the association of weather variability on Campylobacter - A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Previous work has found climate change-induced weather variability is suspected to increase the transmission of enteric pathogens, including Campylobacter, a leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis. While the relationship between extreme weather events and diarrheal diseases has been documented, the specific impact on Campylobacter infections remains underexplored.

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize the peer-reviewed literature exploring the effect of weather variability on Campylobacter infections in humans.

METHODS

The review included English language, peer-reviewed articles, published up to September 1, 2022 in PubMed, Embase, GEOBASE, Agriculture and Environmental Science Database, and CABI Global Health exploring the effect of an antecedent weather event on human enteric illness caused by Campylobacter (PROSPERO Protocol # 351884). We extracted study information including data sources, methods, summary measures, and effect sizes. Quality and weight of evidence reported was summarized and bias assessed for each article.

RESULTS

After screening 278 articles, 47 articles (34 studies, 13 outbreak reports) were included in the evidence synthesis. Antecedent weather events included precipitation (n = 35), temperature (n = 30), relative humidity (n = 7), sunshine (n = 6), and El Niño and La Niña (n = 3). Reviewed studies demonstrated that increases in precipitation and temperature were correlated with Campylobacter infections under specific conditions, whereas low relative humidity and sunshine were negatively correlated. Articles estimating the effect of animal operations (n = 15) found presence and density of animal operations were significantly associated with infections. However, most of the included articles did not assess confounding by seasonality, presence of animal operations, or describe estimates of risk.

DISCUSSION

This review explores what is known about the influence of weather events on Campylobacter and identifies previously underreported negative associations between low relative humidity and sunshine on Campylobacter infections. Future research should explore pathogen-specific estimates of risk, which can be used to influence public health strategies, improve source attribution and causal pathways, and project disease burden due to climate change.

Short-term dynamics of linear growth among Peruvian infants in the first year of life in a population with linear growth faltering

OBJECTIVES

Infant growth is recognized to vary over the short term, with periods of greater and lesser linear growth velocity. Our objectives were to (1) examine the potential differences in overall growth profiles between children who experienced cumulative growth faltering in the first year of life consistent with that seen by many children living in poverty in low- and middle-income countries, versus children without growth faltering and (2) test whether biological factors were associated with the timing of magnitude of growth saltations.

METHODS

Thrice-weekly measurements of length were recorded for n = 61 Peruvian infants (28 boys and 33 girls) enrolled from birth to 1 year. A total of 6040 measurements were analyzed. We tested for the evidence of saltatory growth and used hurdle models to test whether the timing and magnitude of saltations varied between children with greater or lesser growth faltering.

RESULTS

There were no differences in the duration of stasis periods or magnitude of growth saltations between children who were stunted at 1 year old (N = 18) versus those who were not stunted (N = 43). Children who experienced greater declines in LAZ in the first year of life trended toward longer periods between saltations than those with less of a decline (14.5 days vs. 13.4 days, p = .0512). A 1-unit increase in mid upper arm circumference for age Z-score in the 21 days prior was associated with 35% greater odds of a saltation occurring (p < .001), and a 0.128 cm greater saltation (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

After characterizing infant growth into periods of saltation and stasis, our results suggest that increases in weight preceded increases in length.

Infectious Diarrhea Risks as a Public Health Emergency in Floods; a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Infectious diarrhea, a significant global health challenge, is exacerbated by flooding, a consequence of climate change and environmental disruption. This comprehensive study aims to quantify the association between flooding events and the incidence of infectious diarrhea, considering diverse demographic, environmental, and pathogen-specific factors.

Methods

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, adhering to PROSPERO protocol (CRD42024498899), we evaluated observational studies from January 2000 to December 2023. The analysis incorporated global data from PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and ProQuest, focusing on the relative risk (RR) of diarrhea post-flooding. The study encompassed diverse variables like age, sex, pathogen type, environmental context, and statistical modeling approaches.

Results

The meta-analysis, involving 42 high-quality studies, revealed a substantial increase (RR = 1.40, 95% CI [1.29-1.52]) in the incidence of diarrhea following floods. Notably, bacterial and parasitic diarrheas demonstrated higher RRs (1.82 and 1.35, respectively) compared to viral etiologies (RR = 1.15). A significant sex disparity was observed, with women exhibiting a higher susceptibility (RR = 1.55) than men (RR = 1.35). Adults (over 15 years) faced a greater risk than younger individuals, highlighting age-dependent vulnerability.

Conclusion

This extensive analysis confirms a significant correlation between flood events and increased infectious diarrhea risk, varying across pathogens and demographic groups. The findings highlight an urgent need for tailored public health interventions in flood-prone areas, focusing on enhanced sanitation, disease surveillance, and targeted education to mitigate this elevated risk. Our study underscores the critical importance of integrating flood-related health risks into global public health planning and climate change adaptation strategies.

Associations between meteorological variation and hospitalisations for rotavirus infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Objectives

Rotavirus (RoV) infections have emerged as a significant public health concern around the world. Understanding the relationship between climatic conditions and hospitalisations due to RoV infections can help engage effective prevention strategies. This study aims to investigate the potential associations between meteorological variability and RoV-related hospitalisations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Methods

Hospitalization data from a tertiary teaching hospital in Kuala Lumpur over a twelve-year period were retrospectively collected. Concurrently, meteorological data were obtained from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) including variables of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure to further demonstrate relationship with RoV-associated hospitalisations.

Results

The results indicated positive correlations between increased rainfall, rainy days, humidity, and RoV-related hospitalisations, suggesting the influence of environmental factors on the transmission of RoV.

Conclusions

This study highlights positive associations between meteorological variations and hospitalizations for RoV infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Further investigations, including national-level data, are needed to deepen our understanding of these associations, particularly within the context of Malaysia and to develop targeted interventions for disease prevention and control.

How climate change degrades child health: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Children are more vulnerable than adults to climate-related health threats, but reviews examining how climate change affects human health have been mainly descriptive and lack an assessment of the magnitude of health effects children face. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis that identifies which climate-health relationships pose the greatest threats to children.

OBJECTIVES

We reviewed epidemiologic studies to analyse various child health outcomes due to climate change and identify the relationships with the largest effect size. We identify population-specific risks and provide recommendations for future research.

METHODS

We searched four large online databases for observational studies published up to 5 January 2023 following PRISMA (systematic review) guidelines. We evaluated each included study individually and aggregated relevant quantitative data. We used quantitative data in our meta-analysis, where we standardised effect sizes and compared them among different groupings of climate variables and health outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 1301 articles we identified, 163 studies were eligible for analysis. We identified many relationships between climate change and child health, the strongest of which was increasing risk (60 % on average) of preterm birth from exposure to temperature extremes. Respiratory disease, mortality, and morbidity, among others, were also influenced by climate changes. The effects of different air pollutants on health outcomes were considerably smaller compared to temperature effects, but with most (16/20 = 80 %) pollutant studies indicating at least a weak effect. Most studies occurred in high-income regions, but we found no geographical clustering according to health outcome, climate variable, or magnitude of risk. The following factors were protective of climate-related child-health threats: (i) economic stability and strength, (ii) access to quality healthcare, (iii) adequate infrastructure, and (iv) food security. Threats to these services vary by local geographical, climate, and socio-economic conditions. Children will have increased prevalence of disease due to anthropogenic climate change, and our quantification of the impact of various aspects of climate change on child health can contribute to the planning of mitigation that will improve the health of current and future generations.

The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella Surveillance Study in Peru

Background

The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Peru site will enroll subjects in a periurban area of the low Amazon rainforest. The political department of Loreto lags behind most of Peru in access to improved sources of water and sanitation, per capita income, children born <2.5 kg, and infant and child mortality. Chronic undernutrition as manifested by linear growth shortfalls is common, but wasting and acute malnutrition are not.

Methods

The recruitment of children seeking care for acute diarrheal disease takes place at a geographic cluster of government-based primary care centers in an area where most residents are beneficiaries of free primary healthcare.

Results

Rates of diarrheal disease, dysentery, and Shigella are known to be high in the region, with some of the highest rates of disease documented in the literature and little evidence in improvement over the last 2 decades. This study will update estimates of shigellosis by measuring the prevalence of Shigella by polymerase chain reaction and culture in children seeking care and deriving population-based estimates by measuring healthcare seeking at the community level.

Conclusions

Immunization has been offered universally against rotavirus in the region since 2009, and in a context where adequate water and sanitation are unlikely to obtain high standards in the near future, control of principal enteropathogens through immunization may be the most feasible way to decrease the high burden of disease in the area in the near future.

The Planetary Child Health & Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO): A protocol for an interdisciplinary research initiative and web-based dashboard for mapping enteric infectious diseases and their risk factors and interventions in LMICs

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea remains a leading cause of childhood illness throughout the world that is increasing due to climate change and is caused by various species of ecologically sensitive pathogens. The emerging Planetary Health movement emphasizes the interdependence of human health with natural systems, and much of its focus has been on infectious diseases and their interactions with environmental and human processes. Meanwhile, the era of big data has engendered a public appetite for interactive web-based dashboards for infectious diseases. However, enteric infectious diseases have been largely overlooked by these developments.

METHODS

The Planetary Child Health & Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO) is a new initiative that builds on existing partnerships between epidemiologists, climatologists, bioinformaticians, and hydrologists as well as investigators in numerous low- and middle-income countries. Its objective is to provide the research and stakeholder community with an evidence base for the geographical targeting of enteropathogen-specific child health interventions such as novel vaccines. The initiative will produce, curate, and disseminate spatial data products relating to the distribution of enteric pathogens and their environmental and sociodemographic determinants.

DISCUSSION

As climate change accelerates there is an urgent need for etiology-specific estimates of diarrheal disease burden at high spatiotemporal resolution. Plan-EO aims to address key challenges and knowledge gaps by making and disseminating rigorously obtained, generalizable disease burden estimates. Pre-processed environmental and EO-derived spatial data products will be housed, continually updated, and made publicly available for download to the research and stakeholder communities. These can then be used as inputs to identify and target priority populations living in transmission hotspots and for decision-making, scenario-planning, and disease burden projection.

STUDY REGISTRATION

PROSPERO protocol #CRD42023384709.

The Planetary Child Health & Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO): a protocol for an interdisciplinary research initiative and web-based dashboard for mapping enteric infectious diseases and their risk factors and interventions in LMICs

Background

Diarrhea remains a leading cause of childhood illness throughout the world that is increasing due to climate change and is caused by various species of ecologically sensitive pathogens. The emerging Planetary Health movement emphasizes the interdependence of human health with natural systems, and much of its focus has been on infectious diseases and their interactions with environmental and human processes. Meanwhile, the era of big data has engendered a public appetite for interactive web-based dashboards for infectious diseases. However, enteric infectious diseases have been largely overlooked by these developments.

Methods

The Planetary Child Health and Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO) is a new initiative that builds on existing partnerships between epidemiologists, climatologists, bioinformaticians, and hydrologists as well as investigators in numerous low- and middle-income countries. Its objective is to provide the research and stakeholder community with an evidence base for the geographical targeting of enteropathogen-specific child health interventions such as novel vaccines. The initiative will produce, curate, and disseminate spatial data products relating to the distribution of enteric pathogens and their environmental and sociodemographic determinants.

Discussion

As climate change accelerates there is an urgent need for etiology-specific estimates of diarrheal disease burden at high spatiotemporal resolution. Plan-EO aims to address key challenges and knowledge gaps by making rigorously obtained, generalizable disease burden estimates freely available and accessible to the research and stakeholder communities. Pre-processed environmental and EO-derived spatial data products will be housed, continually updated, and made publicly available to the research and stakeholder communities both within the webpage itself and for download. These inputs can then be used to identify and target priority populations living in transmission hotspots and for decision-making, scenario-planning, and disease burden projection.

Study registration

PROSPERO protocol #CRD42023384709.

The Planetary Child Health & Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO): a protocol for an interdisciplinary research initiative and web-based dashboard for mapping enteric infectious diseases and their risk factors and interventions in LMICs

Background

Diarrhea remains a leading cause of childhood illness throughout the world that is increasing due to climate change and is caused by various species of ecologically sensitive pathogens. The emerging Planetary Health movement emphasizes the interdependence of human health with natural systems, and much of its focus has been on infectious diseases and their interactions with environmental and human processes. Meanwhile, the era of big data has engendered a public appetite for interactive web-based dashboards for infectious diseases. However, enteric infectious diseases have been largely overlooked by these developments.

Methods

The Planetary Child Health and Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO) is a new initiative that builds on existing partnerships between epidemiologists, climatologists, bioinformaticians, and hydrologists as well as investigators in numerous low- and middle-income countries. Its objective is to provide the research and stakeholder community with an evidence base for the geographical targeting of enteropathogen-specific child health interventions such as novel vaccines. The initiative will produce, curate, and disseminate spatial data products relating to the distribution of enteric pathogens and their environmental and sociodemographic determinants.

Discussion

As climate change accelerates there is an urgent need for etiology-specific estimates of diarrheal disease burden at high spatiotemporal resolution. Plan-EO aims to address key challenges and knowledge gaps by making rigorously obtained, generalizable disease burden estimates freely available and accessible to the research and stakeholder communities. Pre-processed environmental and EO-derived spatial data products will be housed, continually updated, and made publicly available to the research and stakeholder communities both within the webpage itself and for download. These inputs can then be used to identify and target priority populations living in transmission hotspots and for decision-making, scenario-planning, and disease burden projection.

Study registration

PROSPERO protocol #CRD42023384709.

Identifying gaps on health impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities to climate change on human health and wellbeing in South America: a scoping review

There is an important gap in regional information on climate change and health, limiting the development of science-based climate policies in South American countries. This study aims to identify the main gaps in the existing scientific literature on the impacts, exposure, and vulnerabilities of climate change on population health. A scoping review was performed guided by four sub-questions focused on the impacts of climate change on physical and mental health, exposure and vulnerability factors of population to climate hazards. The main findings showed that physical impacts mainly included infectious diseases, while mental health impacts included trauma, depression, and anxiety. Evidence on population exposure to climate hazards is limited, and social determinants of health and individual factors were identified as vulnerability factors. Overall, evidence on the intersection between climate change and health is limited in South America and has been generated in silos, with limited transdisciplinary research. More formal and systematic information should be generated to inform public policy.

Funding

None.

Spatiotemporal variation in risk of Shigella infection in childhood: a global risk mapping and prediction model using individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum.

FINDINGS

20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]).

INTERPRETATION

The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns.

FUNDING

NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Floods and diarrheal morbidity: Evidence on the relationship, effect modifiers, and attributable risk from Sichuan Province, China

Background

Although studies have provided the estimates of floods-diarrhoea associations, little is known about the lag effect, effect modification, and attributable risk. Based on Sichuan, China, an uneven socio-economic development province with plateau, basin, and mountain terrains spanning different climatic zones, we aimed to systematically examine the impacts of floods on diarrheal morbidity.

Methods

We retrieved information on daily diarrheal cases, floods, meteorological variables, and annual socio-economic characteristics for 21 cities in Sichuan from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019. We fitted time-series Poisson models to estimate the city-specific floods-diarrhoea relation over the lags of 0-14 days, and then pooled them using meta-analysis for cumulative and lag effects. We further employed meta-regression to explore potential effect modifiers and identify effect modification. We calculated the attributable diarrheal cases and fraction of attributable morbidity within the framework of the distributed lag model.

Results

Floods had a significant cumulative association with diarrhoea at the provincial level, but varied by regions and cities. The effects of the floods appeared on the second day after the floods and lasted for 5 days. Floods-diarrhoea relations were modified by three effect modifiers, with stronger flood effects on diarrhoea found in areas with higher air pressure, lower diurnal temperature range, or warmer temperature. Floods were responsible for advancing a fraction of diarrhoea, corresponding to 0.25% within the study period and 0.48% within the flood season.

Conclusions

The impacts imposed by floods were mainly distributed within the first week. The floods-diarrhoea relations varied by geographic and climatic conditions. The diarrheal burden attributable to floods is currently low in Sichuan, but this figure could increase with the exposure more intensive and the effect modifiers more detrimental in the future. Our findings are expected to provide evidence for the formulation of temporal- and spatial-specific strategies to reduce potential risks of flood-related diarrhoea.

Global climate change and human health: Pathways and possible solutions

Global warming has been changing the planet's climate pattern, leading to increasing frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events and natural disasters. These climate-changing events affect various health outcomes adversely through complicated pathways. This paper reviews the main signs of climate change so far, e.g., suboptimal ambient temperature, sea-level rise and other conditions, and depicts the interactive pathways between different climate-changing events such as suboptimal temperature, wildfires, and floods with a broad range of health outcomes. Meanwhile, the modifying effect of socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors on the pathways is summarised, such that the youth, elderly, females, poor and those living in coastal regions are particularly susceptible to climate change. Although Earth as a whole is expected to suffer from climate change, this review article discusses some potential benefits for certain regions, e.g., a more liveable environment and sufficient food supply. Finally, we summarise certain mitigation and adaptation strategies against climate change and how these strategies may benefit human health in other ways. This review article provides a comprehensive and concise introduction of the pathways between climate change and human health and possible solutions, which may map directions for future research.

El Niño Southern Oscillation, monsoon anomaly, and childhood diarrheal disease morbidity in Nepal

Climate change is adversely impacting the burden of diarrheal diseases. Despite significant reduction in global prevalence, diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies have shown that diarrheal disease is associated with meteorological conditions but the role of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon anomaly is less understood. We obtained 13 years (2002-2014) of diarrheal disease data from Nepal and investigated how the disease rate is associated with phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, vs. ENSO neutral) monsoon rainfall anomaly (below normal, above normal, vs. normal), and changes in timing of monsoon onset, and withdrawal (early, late, vs. normal). Monsoon season was associated with a 21% increase in diarrheal disease rates (Incident Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.16-1.27). El Niño was associated with an 8% reduction in risk while the La Niña was associated with a 32% increase in under-5 diarrheal disease rates. Likewise, higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall was associated with increased rates of diarrheal disease, with considerably higher rates observed in the mountain region (IRR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.19-1.92). Our findings suggest that under-5 diarrheal disease burden in Nepal is significantly influenced by ENSO and changes in seasonal monsoon dynamics. Since both ENSO phases and monsoon can be predicted with considerably longer lead time compared to weather, our findings will pave the way for the development of more effective early warning systems for climate sensitive infectious diseases.

Associations Between Eight Earth Observation-Derived Climate Variables and Enteropathogen Infection: An Independent Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Surveillance Studies With Broad Spectrum Nucleic Acid Diagnostics

Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen-specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens-adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, Cryptosporidium and Giardia-was matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation dataset-precipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, non-linear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7-day average temperatures-a relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.85) above 28°C-while ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36-1.50), in the 20-35°C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species' risk increased following lower-than-average rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrhea-causing agents as the global climate changes.

Hazard identification and risk assessment of the organic, inorganic and microbial contaminants in the surface water after the high magnitude of flood event

The present work has been oriented to the qualitative and quantitative assessments of the aftermath effects of 2014 flood tragedy on the organic, inorganic and microbial contaminants in the floodwater, with a particular emphasis on their relative health risks and microbial infectious hazards to the flood-affected population, using average daily dose, hazard quotient, hazard index (HI), cancer risk (CR) and quantitative microbial risk assessment. Statistical comparison of the organic and inorganic contents was performed using the paired t-tests, while the predominant socio-demographic profiles and health attributes of the respondents to flood-induced health risks (HI) were verified by the chi-square test and binary logistic regression analysis. Among all, Fe, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn, Cr, Cd, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, estriol, 17α-ethinylestradiol, estrone, β-estradiol and bisphenol A were detected at the study area after flooding. The microbiological quality of the floodwater samples has been tracked positive for Escherichia coli, Salmonella typhimurium and Shigella flexneri, with the mean concentrations of 6500, 50 and 180 CFU/100 mL, respectively. Exposure and health risk assessments revealed that the overall HI value for organic and inorganic contaminants in the water samples was 1.19, exceeding the USEPA maximum limit of 1, after the flood incidence. The largest CR contributors were Ni, Cr and Cd, while the infection risks (P_inf,single) associated with the exposure of E. coli, Salmonella spp. and Shigella spp. were identified to be 3.1 × 10^-2, 1.2 × 10^-4 and 3.2 × 10^-5 for incidental scenario; and 8.3 × 10^-1, 3.9 × 10^-1 and 1.9 × 10^-1 for intentional scenario, respectively. The findings of these integrated tools are critically important to provide a more reliable quantitative assessment of human health hazards and microbial risks for different environmental settings, to safeguard water resource, and preservation of public health and the overall river ecosystem.

Molecular Epidemiology of Sapovirus in Children Living in the Northwest Amazon Region

Sapovirus is an important etiological agent of acute gastroenteritis (AGE), mainly in children under 5 years old living in lower-income communities. Eighteen identified sapovirus genotypes have been observed to infect humans. The aim of this study was to identify sapovirus genotypes circulating in the Amazon region. Twenty-eight samples were successfully genotyped using partial sequencing of the capsid gene. The genotypes identified were GI.1 (n = 3), GI.2 (n = 7), GII.1 (n = 1), GII.2 (n = 1), GII.3 (n = 5), GII.5 (n = 1), and GIV.1 (n = 10). The GIV genotype was the most detected genotype (35.7%, 10/28). The phylogenetic analysis identified sapovirus genotypes that had no similarity with other strains reported from Brazil, indicating that these genotypes may have entered the Amazon region via intense tourism in the Amazon rainforest. No association between histo-blood group antigen expression and sapovirus infection was observed.

Sapovirus: an emerging cause of childhood diarrhea

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Sapovirus, a genus in the Caliciviridae family alongside norovirus, is increasingly recognized as an important cause of childhood diarrhea. Some challenges exist in our ability to better understand sapovirus infections, including the inability to grow sapovirus in cell culture, which has hindered diagnosis and studies of immunity. Another challenge is that individuals with sapovirus infection are commonly coinfected with other enteric pathogens, complicating our ability to attribute the diarrhea episode to a single pathogen.

RECENT FINDINGS

Development of molecular methods for sapovirus detection has increased our ability to measure disease prevalence. The prevalence of sapovirus varies between 1 and 17% of diarrhea episodes worldwide, with the highest burden in young children and older adults. Further, epidemiological studies have used novel approaches to account for the presence of coinfections with other enteric pathogens; one multisite cohort study of children under two years of age found that sapovirus had the second-highest attributable incidence among all diarrheal pathogens studied.

SUMMARY

Especially in settings where rotavirus vaccines have been introduced, efforts to reduce the overall burden of childhood diarrhea should focus on the reduction of sapovirus transmission and disease burden.

Effects of El Niño/La Niña on the Number of Imported Shigellosis Cases in the Republic of Korea, 2004-2017

Shigellosis is a major diarrheal disease in low- and middle-income countries. Although the incidence of such diseases in South and Southeast Asia has been associated with climate fluctuations linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the impact of ENSO on shigellosis infections remains unknown. Data reported to being infected with shigellosis while traveling abroad from 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We investigated the relationship between the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and the relative risk of shigellosis in outbound travelers using distributed lag linear and non-linear models. From 2004 to 2017, 87.1% of imported shigellosis was infected in South and Southeast Asian countries. The relative risk of imported shigellosis infection in outbound travelers increased as the ONI decreased. In the association with the five-month cumulative ONI, the relative risk of infection continuously increased as the La Niña index gained strength. Climate fluctuations associated with the La Niña phenomenon in South and Southeast Asian countries can lead to issues in sanitation and water safety. Our findings suggest that the decreasing trend in the ONI is associated with an increased incidence of shigellosis in these countries.

Understanding the Impact of Rainfall on Diarrhea: Testing the Concentration-Dilution Hypothesis Using a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Projected increases in extreme weather may change relationships between rain-related climate exposures and diarrheal disease. Whether rainfall increases or decreases diarrhea rates is unclear based on prior literature. The concentration-dilution hypothesis suggests that these conflicting results are explained by the background level of rain: Rainfall following dry periods can flush pathogens into surface water, increasing diarrhea incidence, whereas rainfall following wet periods can dilute pathogen concentrations in surface water, thereby decreasing diarrhea incidence.

OBJECTIVES

In this analysis, we explored the extent to which the concentration-dilution hypothesis is supported by published literature.

METHODS

To this end, we conducted a systematic search for articles assessing the relationship between rain, extreme rain, flood, drought, and season (rainy vs. dry) and diarrheal illness.

RESULTS

A total of 111 articles met our inclusion criteria. Overall, the literature largely supports the concentration-dilution hypothesis. In particular, extreme rain was associated with increased diarrhea when it followed a dry period [incidence rate ratio ( IRR ) = 1.26 ; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 1.51], with a tendency toward an inverse association for extreme rain following wet periods, albeit nonsignificant, with one of four relevant studies showing a significant inverse association (IRR = 0.911 ; 95% CI: 0.771, 1.08). Incidences of bacterial and parasitic diarrhea were more common during rainy seasons, providing pathogen-specific support for a concentration mechanism, but rotavirus diarrhea showed the opposite association. Information on timing of cases within the rainy season (e.g., early vs. late) was lacking, limiting further analysis. We did not find a linear association between nonextreme rain exposures and diarrheal disease, but several studies found a nonlinear association with low and high rain both being associated with diarrhea.

DISCUSSION

Our meta-analysis suggests that the effect of rainfall depends on the antecedent conditions. Future studies should use standard, clearly defined exposure variables to strengthen understanding of the relationship between rainfall and diarrheal illness. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6181.

Associations between Household-Level Exposures and All-Cause Diarrhea and Pathogen-Specific Enteric Infections in Children Enrolled in Five Sentinel Surveillance Studies

Diarrheal disease remains a major cause of childhood mortality and morbidity causing poor health and economic outcomes. In low-resource settings, young children are exposed to numerous risk factors for enteric pathogen transmission within their dwellings, though the relative importance of different transmission pathways varies by pathogen species. The objective of this analysis was to model associations between five household-level risk factors-water, sanitation, flooring, caregiver education, and crowding-and infection status for endemic enteric pathogens in children in five surveillance studies. Data were combined from 22 sites in which a total of 58,000 stool samples were tested for 16 specific enteropathogens using qPCR. Risk ratios for pathogen- and taxon-specific infection status were modeled using generalized linear models along with hazard ratios for all-cause diarrhea in proportional hazard models, with the five household-level variables as primary exposures adjusting for covariates. Improved drinking water sources conferred a 17% reduction in diarrhea risk; however, the direction of its association with particular pathogens was inconsistent. Improved sanitation was associated with a 9% reduction in diarrhea risk with protective effects across pathogen species and taxa of around 10-20% risk reduction. A 9% reduction in diarrhea risk was observed in subjects with covered floors, which were also associated with decreases in risk for zoonotic enteropathogens. Caregiver education and household crowding showed more modest, inconclusive results. Combining data from diverse sites, this analysis quantified associations between five household-level exposures on risk of specific enteric infections, effects which differed by pathogen species but were broadly consistent with hypothesized transmission mechanisms. Such estimates may be used within expanded water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) programs to target interventions to the particular pathogen profiles of individual communities and prioritize resources.

La Niña weather impacts dietary patterns and dietary diversity among children in the Peruvian Amazon

Objective:

In 2011–2012, severe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions (La Niña) led to massive flooding and temporarily displacement in the Peruvian Amazon. Our aims were to examine the impact of this ENSO exposure on child diets, in particular: (1) frequency of food consumption patterns, (2) the amount of food consumed (g/d), (3) dietary diversity (DD), (4) consumption of donated foods, among children aged 9–36 months living in the outskirts of City of Iquitos in the Amazonian Peru.

Design:

This was a longitudinal study that used quantitative 24-h recall dietary data collection from children aged 9–36 months from 2010 to 2014 as part of the MAL-ED birth cohort study.

Setting:

Iquitos, Loreto, Peru.

Participants:

Two hundred and fifty-two mother–child dyads.

Results:

The frequency of grains, rice, dairy and sugar in meals reduced by 5–7 %, while the frequency of plantain in meals increased by 24 % after adjusting for covariates. ENSO exposure reduced girl’s intake of plantains and sugar. Despite seasonal fluctuations in the availability of fruits, vegetables and fish, DD remained constant across seasons and as children aged. However, DD was significantly reduced under moderate La Niña conditions by 0·32 (P < 0·05) food groups. Adaptive social strategies such as consumption of donated foods were significantly higher among households with girls.

Conclusions:

This is the first empirical study to show differential effect of the ENSO on the dietary patterns of children, highlighting differences by gender. Public health nutrition programmes should be climate- and gender-sensitive in their efforts to safeguard the diets of vulnerable populations.