Spatiotemporal link between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extreme heat, and thermal stress in the Asia-Pacific region

Climate change is closely monitored and numerous studies reports increasing air temperature and weather extremes across the globe. As a direct consequence of the increase of global temperature, the increased heat stress is becoming a global threat to public health. While most climate change and epidemiological studies focus on air temperature to explain the increasing risks, heat strain can be predicted using comprehensive indices such as Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The Asia-Pacific region is prone to thermal stress and the high population densities in the region impose high health risk. This study evaluated the air temperature and UTCI trends between 1990 and 2019 and found significant increasing trends for air temperature for the whole region while the increases of UTCI are not as pronounced and mainly found in the northern part of the region. These results indicate that even though air temperature is increasing, the risks of heat stress when assessed using UTCI may be alleviated by other factors. The associations between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and heat stress was evaluated on a seasonal level and the strongest regional responses were found during December-January (DJF) and March-May (MAM).

Incidence of opioid misuse by cigarette smoking status in the United States

BACKGROUND

The combination of opioid misuse and cigarette smoking contributes to increased morbidity and mortality compared to each substance use alone. We estimated the incidence of opioid misuse for persons who currently or formerly smoked versus never smoked.

METHODS

Data came from the 2015-2020 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health cross-sectional surveys of US civilians aged 12+ (n = 315,661). Weighted opioid misuse incidence and average time between cigarette use initiation and opioid misuse initiation were calculated annually by smoking status. Logistic regression models tested time trends in incidence by smoking status.

RESULTS

Overall, 0.75% of persons initiated opioid misuse per year; opioid misuse incidence was 1.35% for those who currently smoked cigarettes, 0.54% for those who formerly smoked, and 0.67% for those who never smoked. For persons who currently smoked and misused opioids (1.50%), 95.08% smoked prior to opioid use. The average time between smoking followed by opioid misuse was 12.93 years and for opioid misuse followed by smoking was 4.36 years. Persons who currently smoked were more likely to initiate opioid misuse than those who had never smoked (AOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.60, 2.06). There was a decrease in the opioid misuse incidence over time (AOR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.92), which did not differ by smoking status.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons who currently smoked cigarettes, relative to those who never smoked, were more likely to initiate opioid misuse. As most individuals smoked before opioid misuse, it may be useful for primary prevention efforts to decrease opioid misuse initiation by focusing on smoking status.

Longitudinal associations between receiving E-cigarette price promotions and subsequent E-cigarette use among U.S. Young adult cigarette smokers

INTRODUCTION

E-cigarette price promotions (EPPs; i.e., marketed reductions in cost) may influence young adult cigarette smokers to try, dual use with, or completely transition to e-cigarettes. We assessed whether receiving EPPs was associated with subsequent e-cigarette use among this group.

METHODS

Data were from Waves 4 (2016-2018) and 5 (2018-2019) of the nationally representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study survey. Analysis was restricted to participants who were young adult (18-34 years) established, current cigarette smokers who did not use e-cigarettes at Wave 4 (baseline; n = 2,664; Sample 1), and a subsample of those who tried to quit smoking completely in the past year at Wave 5 (follow-up; n = 948; Sample 2). Multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine associations between receiving EPPs at baseline and past year use of e-cigarettes in general (Sample 1) and to help quit smoking (Sample 2) at follow-up, controlling for covariates.

RESULTS

Overall, 4.1% and 4.9% of Sample 1 and 2 participants received EPPs, respectively; At follow-up, 33.4% of Sample 1 participants used e-cigarettes, and 12.0% of Sample 2 participants used e-cigarettes to quit smoking. Receiving EPPs was associated with subsequent past-year e-cigarette use in general (AOR = 2.07; 95% CI = 1.31 to 3.27), and past-year e-cigarette use to help with quitting smoking (AOR = 3.20; 95% CI = 1.48 to 6.90).

DISCUSSION

EPPs may increase e-cigarette use among established, current smokers and may be used to quit smoking. Research is needed to understand how EPPs may be differentially associated with complete product transition versus dual/poly use among young adult smokers.

Associations between living in localities with e-cigarette sales restrictions and e-cigarette use change among young adults in Los Angeles County

INTRODUCTION

Local e-cigarette sales restrictions (ESRs) may impact e-cigarette use. This study examined the associations between living in localities with various ESR policies and changes in e-cigarette use among young adults in Los Angeles (LA) County, California, USA.

METHODS

Data were from a cohort of LA County young adults (18-21 years; n=2100) who completed two waves of surveys (Fall 2018-Summer 2019 and Summer-Fall 2020). Local flavoured (n=9) and comprehensive (n=2) ESRs in LA County implemented between June 2019 and May 2020 were identified, coded and merged with the baseline data. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine the associations between living in ESR localities and e-cigarette use at follow-up, controlling for covariates and stratified by cigarette smoking at baseline.

RESULTS

Overall, 20.9% and 14.3% of participants lived in localities with flavoured and comprehensive ESRs, respectively. Participants who were non-Hispanic, had higher socioeconomic statuses and were currently using e-cigarettes were generally more likely to live in ESR localities than their counterparts. The associations between living in ESR localities and e-cigarette use at follow-up were not found among baseline non-e-cigarette users regardless of their cigarette smoking status; a positive relationship was found among baseline e-cigarette users who also smoked cigarettes but not among non-smokers.

DISCUSSION

Participants who lived in localities with various ESR policies were different in their baseline e-cigarette use and socioeconomic backgrounds. Future research examining the potential impact of ESRs on e-cigarette use change should consider the localities' overall sociodemographic and tobacco-using characteristics and individuals' cigarette smoking histories.

Longitudinal associations between U.S. youth exposure to E-cigarette marketing and E-cigarette use harm perception and behavior change

E-cigarette marketing tactics to reach and appeal to youth are rapidly changing. This study examined to what extent youth e-cigarette marketing exposure was associated with e-cigarette use behavior change one year later, during a time when youth e-cigarette use was starting to surge in the U.S. Using nationally representative longitudinal public-use data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, we examined associations between recalled e-cigarette marketing exposure (2016-2018) at Wave (W) 4 and e-cigarette use harm perception and behavior change (ever, current, and regular use) one year later (W4.5; 2017-2018) among W4 never tobacco users (n = 9405). Recall of exposure to e-cigarette marketing through different channels was also examined in multivariable models controlling for socio-demographic factors and established e-cigarette use risk factors. Results show that the most frequently recalled channels of e-cigarette marketing exposure were retail stores (50.3%), television (22.2%), and websites/social media (20.2%). Over one year, 21.2%, 7.8%, 3.4%, and 1.2% of respondents reported reduced harm perceptions, and ever, current, and regular use of e-cigarettes, respectively, at follow-up. Recalled exposure to e-cigarette marketing was associated with reduced e-cigarette harm perception (AOR = 1.20; 95% CI = 1.05-1.37) and ever (AOR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.01-1.56) and current use (AOR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.02-1.92) at follow-up. E-cigarette marketing exposure through websites/social media was associated with reduced harm perceptions and all stages of e-cigarette use change, including regular use. Identifying marketing techniques and channels that change youth e-cigarette harm perceptions and influence e-cigarette use progression is essential to inform e-cigarette regulatory policies and prevention campaigns.

Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Based on Social Distancing in Maryland, USA: A Time-Series Approach

OBJECTIVE

Our objective is to forecast the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Maryland, United States, using transfer function time series (TS) models based on a Social Distancing Index (SDI) and determine how their parameters relate to the pandemic mechanics.

METHODS

A moving window of 2 mo was used to train the transfer function TS model that was then tested on the next week data. After accounting for a secular trend and weekly cycle of the SDI, a high correlation was documented between it and the daily caseload 9 days later. Similar patterns were also observed on the daily COVID-19 cases and incorporated in our models.

RESULTS

In most cases, the proposed models provide a reasonable performance that was, on average, moderately better than that delivered by TS models based only on previous observations. The model coefficients associated with the SDI were statistically significant for most of the training/test sets.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed models that incorporate SDI can forecast the number of COVID-19 cases in a region. Their parameters have real-life interpretations and, hence, can help understand the inner workings of the epidemic. The methods detailed here can help local health governments and other agencies adjust their response to the epidemic.

Impact of irrigation water type and sampling frequency on Microbial Water Quality Profiles required for compliance with U.S. Food Safety Modernization Act Produce Safety Rule standards

The U.S. Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) Produce Safety Rule (PSR) requires that farmers generate a Microbial Water Quality Profile (MWQP) from 20 samples per agricultural water source, taken over 2-4 years and five annual samples thereafter. Farmers must use the MWQP to ascertain a geometric mean (GM) of ≤126 CFU/100 mL and statistical threshold value (STV) of ≤410 CFU/100 mL of generic Escherichia coli. Farmers are responsible for collecting samples and paying for testing, incurring a financial and time burden. To determine if testing frequency can be reduced without compromising accuracy, water samples (n = 279) were collected from twelve sites in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region from 2016 to 2018 comprising tidal brackish river, non-tidal fresh river, pond, vegetable processing, and reclaimed water. The GM and STV were calculated for all sites and water types using all samples, and for multiple sub-samples of <20 from each site and water type. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the proportion of sub-sample sizes that yielded the same determination as the entire sample size of PSR standard compliance. Four sites, two pond and two reclaimed water sites, complied with PSR GM and STV requirements when using the entire sample set. When a water source's calculated GM and STV using the entire sample set hovered close to the PSR thresholds, sub-sample sizes approached the recommended 20 samples to reach a congruent compliance determination. However, 99% agreement was obtained with a sub-sample of five when the absolute difference between the GM and STV from total samples and the PSR thresholds was ≥2.6 and 4.5 log CFU/100 mL E. coli, respectively. These findings suggest that under certain conditions the MWQP may be generated with well below 20 samples, reducing the economic burden on farmers while still maintaining a representative MWQP.

El Niño Southern Oscillation, monsoon anomaly, and childhood diarrheal disease morbidity in Nepal

Climate change is adversely impacting the burden of diarrheal diseases. Despite significant reduction in global prevalence, diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies have shown that diarrheal disease is associated with meteorological conditions but the role of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon anomaly is less understood. We obtained 13 years (2002-2014) of diarrheal disease data from Nepal and investigated how the disease rate is associated with phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, vs. ENSO neutral) monsoon rainfall anomaly (below normal, above normal, vs. normal), and changes in timing of monsoon onset, and withdrawal (early, late, vs. normal). Monsoon season was associated with a 21% increase in diarrheal disease rates (Incident Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.16-1.27). El Niño was associated with an 8% reduction in risk while the La Niña was associated with a 32% increase in under-5 diarrheal disease rates. Likewise, higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall was associated with increased rates of diarrheal disease, with considerably higher rates observed in the mountain region (IRR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.19-1.92). Our findings suggest that under-5 diarrheal disease burden in Nepal is significantly influenced by ENSO and changes in seasonal monsoon dynamics. Since both ENSO phases and monsoon can be predicted with considerably longer lead time compared to weather, our findings will pave the way for the development of more effective early warning systems for climate sensitive infectious diseases.

Visual Attention to Health Warning Labels on Waterpipe Venue Menus in Immersive Virtual Reality

INTRODUCTION

This study examined how health warning labels (HWL) on a waterpipe venue menu captured and held the attention of consumers and influenced waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors.

AIMS AND METHODS

A randomized experiment (N = 96) of young adult waterpipe smokers was conducted in an immersive virtual reality laboratory. Participants viewed one of two virtual reality scenarios, a menu with an HWL and nicotine concentration or menu without an HWL and nicotine concentration. Eye-tracking metrics were collected, and participants completed posttest questionnaires on demographics, tobacco use history, and WTS attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors. T-tests were used to assess group differences, and a mediation analysis conducted to examine the relationship between the HWL and intention to quit WTS.

RESULTS

Participants in the HWL group demonstrated greater visual attention to the warning and nicotine areas and less visual attention to the flavor and ingredients areas of the menu compared to the control group. The HWL group demonstrated greater negative attitudes toward WTS (p = .002), greater perceived risk of decreased lung function (p = .026), and greater intention to quit WTS (p = 0.003). The mediation model indicated the relationship between the HWL on a menu and intention to quit WTS was mediated by an increase in negative attitudes toward WTS.

CONCLUSIONS

The HWLs on a menu captured and held the attention of consumers and increased negative attitudes, perceptions of health risk, and intention to quit WTS indicating potential benefit of including a warning label or nicotine concentration on menus to correct misperceptions of WTS.

IMPLICATIONS

The study contributes to the broader literature on communicating the harms and risks of WTS. The findings suggest that HWL and nicotine concentration on waterpipe venue menus attract attention from consumers in environments comparable to the real world and the strategy warrants further exploration as a targeted policy intervention to educate the public and reduce the health burden of WTS.

Manual Palpation vs. Femoral Arterial Doppler Ultrasound for Comparison of Pulse Check Time During Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in the Emergency Department: A Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

Manual palpation (MP) is frequently employed for pulse checks, but studies have shown that trained medical personnel have difficulty accurately identifying pulselessness or return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) using MP. Any delays in identifying pulselessness can lead to significant delays in starting or resuming high-quality chest compressions.

OBJECTIVES

This study explored whether femoral arterial Doppler ultrasound (FADU) decreases pulse check duration during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) compared with MP among patients in the emergency department (ED) receiving CPR directed by emergency medicine physicians who had received minimal additional didactic ultrasound training.

METHODS

We performed a prospective observational cohort study from October 2018 to May 2019 at an urban community ED. Using convenience sampling, we enrolled patients arriving at our ED or who decompensated during their ED stay and received CPR. For continuous data, median (interquartile range [IQR]) were calculated, and medians were compared using Kruskal-Wallis test.

RESULTS

Fifty-two eligible patients were enrolled and 135 pulse checks via MP and 35 via FADU were recorded. MP observations had a median (IQR) of 11.00 (7.36-15.48) s, whereas FADU had a median (IQR) of 8.98 (5.45-13.85) s. There was a difference between the two medians of 2.02 s (p = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the use of FADU was superior to MP in achieving shorter pulse check times. Further research is needed to confirm the accuracy of FADU for identifying ROSC as well as to determine whether FADU can improve clinical outcomes.

Biomarker Categorization in Transcriptomic Meta-Analysis by Concordant Patterns With Application to Pan-Cancer Studies

With the increasing availability and dropping cost of high-throughput technology in recent years, many-omics datasets have accumulated in the public domain. Combining multiple transcriptomic studies on related hypothesis via meta-analysis can improve statistical power and reproducibility over single studies. For differential expression (DE) analysis, biomarker categorization by DE pattern across studies is a natural but critical task following biomarker detection to help explain between study heterogeneity and classify biomarkers into categories with potentially related functionality. In this paper, we propose a novel meta-analysis method to categorize biomarkers by simultaneously considering the concordant pattern and the biological and statistical significance across studies. Biomarkers with the same DE pattern can be analyzed together in downstream pathway enrichment analysis. In the presence of different types of transcripts (e.g., mRNA, miRNA, and lncRNA, etc.), integrative analysis including miRNA/lncRNA target enrichment analysis and miRNA-mRNA and lncRNA-mRNA causal regulatory network analysis can be conducted jointly on all the transcripts of the same category. We applied our method to two Pan-cancer transcriptomic study examples with single or multiple types of transcripts available. Targeted downstream analysis identified categories of biomarkers with unique functionality and regulatory relationships that motivate new hypothesis in Pan-cancer analysis.

Racial and Sex Differences between Urinary Phthalates and Metabolic Syndrome among U.S. Adults: NHANES 2005-2014

Phthalates, plasticizers ubiquitous in household and personal care products, have been associated with metabolic disturbances. Despite the noted racial differences in phthalate exposure and the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), it remains unclear whether associations between phthalate metabolites and MetS vary by race and sex. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted among 10,017 adults from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2005–2014). Prevalence odds ratios (POR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for the association between 11 urinary phthalate metabolites and MetS using weighted sex and race stratified multivariable logistic regression. Higher MCOP levels were significantly associated with increased odds of MetS among women but not men, and only remained significant among White women (POR _{Q4 vs. Q1} = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.29; p-trend = 0.001). Similarly, the inverse association observed with MEHP among women, persisted among White women only (POR _{Q4 vs. Q1} = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.80; p-trend = 0.003). However, ΣDEHP metabolites were associated with increased odds of MetS only among men, and this finding was limited to White men (POR _{Q4 vs. Q1} = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.35; p-trend = 0.06). Among Black men, an inverse association was observed with higher MEP levels (POR _{Q4 vs. Q1} = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.77; p-trend = 0.01). The findings suggest differential associations between phthalate metabolites and MetS by sex and race/ethnicity.

Health Information on Waterpipe Lounge Menus to Educate Young Adults: Pilot Study Findings

BACKGROUND

For years, tobacco risk communication has largely focused on cigarette smoking. New strategies must be developed to adapt to emerging tobacco products, such as waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS).

AIMS

The purpose of this pilot study was to determine the preliminary effects of health information on waterpipe lounge menus on the perceptions of harm and risk from WTS and inform future efficacy interventions for health communication (i.e., educating populations on the risks, harms, and health consequences of WTS).

METHOD

Participants aged 18 to 24 years (n = 213) who smoked waterpipe at least monthly were randomized to one of four waterpipe lounge menu groups using a two-by-two experimental design with "warning message" and "nicotine content" as factors.

RESULTS

Those who viewed waterpipe lounge menus that included a warning message had greater perceived relative harm to health and perceived risk of decreased lung function from WTS. Those who viewed waterpipe lounge menus that included nicotine content had greater perceived risk of heart attack from WTS.

DISCUSSION

Participants who were exposed to health warnings of WTS and information on the nicotine content of waterpipe tobacco increased on measures of perceived relative harm and risk of health consequences.

CONCLUSION

The pilot test results indicate promise for providing health information on waterpipe lounge menus to educate young adults on the harms and risks of WTS.

Tobacco Point-of-Sale Influence on U.S. Adult Smokers

INTRODUCTION

Prior research has shown that tobacco companies target point-of-sale (POS) marketing to low-income communities. This research assessed the association between demographic characteristics and venue type with purchasing tobacco products in response to marketing.

METHODS

Using Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study Wave 1 Adult data, this analysis compared promotion awareness and purchase influence among current smokers.

RESULTS

Tobacco promotions were more likely to be noticed at convenience stores, gas stations, or tobacco stores than at other outlets. Smokers who bought their cigarettes at these outlets were more likely to purchase a brand other than their usual brand because of marketing. Smokers below the poverty level had greater odds than others to have noticed tobacco ads and to indicate purchase influence.

CONCLUSIONS

Point-of-sale marketing is effective in garnering the attention of low-income populations and influencing their tobacco purchases. Enforcing retailers' adherence to regulations is vital.

Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread : A Quantitative Analysis of 5 States

OBJECTIVE

We quantified the association between public compliance with social distancing measures and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic (March-May 2020) in 5 states that accounted for half of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States.

METHODS

We used data on mobility and number of COVID-19 cases to longitudinally estimate associations between public compliance, as measured by human mobility, and the daily reproduction number and daily growth rate during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York.

RESULTS

The 5 states mandated social distancing directives during March 19-24, 2020, and public compliance with mandates started to decrease in mid-April 2020. As of May 31, 2020, the daily reproduction number decreased from 2.41-5.21 to 0.72-1.19, and the daily growth rate decreased from 0.22-0.77 to -0.04 to 0.05 in the 5 states. The level of public compliance, as measured by the social distancing index (SDI) and daily encounter-density change, was high at the early stage of implementation but decreased in the 5 states. The SDI was negatively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, -0.04 to -0.01) and the daily growth rate (from -0.009 to -0.01). The daily encounter-density change was positively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, 0.24 to 1.02) and the daily growth rate (from 0.05 to 0.26).

CONCLUSIONS

Social distancing is an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and illustrates the role of public compliance with social distancing measures to achieve public health benefits.

Social media use and human papillomavirus awareness and knowledge among adults with children in the household: examining the role of race, ethnicity, and gender

BACKGROUND

Though human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is a safe and effective method of protecting against associated cancers, uptake rates remain low among adolescents. Few studies have examined how social media use contributes to HPV-related knowledge gaps among parents and caregivers.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between social media use and HPV-related awareness and knowledge with a focus on differences by gender and race/ethnicity among a nationally representative sample of adults with children in the household.

METHODS

We used data from the Health Information National Trends (HINTS) Survey (2017-2019) (N = 2,720). Multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine the association of social media use on HPV awareness and knowledge outcomes.

RESULTS

Compared to non-users, engaging in one, two, three, or four social media behaviors were associated with greater HPV awareness (aOR: 2.09; 95%CI: 1.18-3.70, aOR: 2.49; 95%CI: 1.40-4.42, aOR: 2.64; 95%CI: 1.15-6.05, and aOR: 2.44; 95%CI: 1.11-5.36, respectively). Increased social media use was associated with increased HPV vaccine awareness. Men, African American, Hispanic, and Asian American respondents were less likely to be aware of HPV or HPV vaccine. Social media use was not associated with cancer knowledge.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased social media use is associated with an increased awareness of HPV and HPV vaccine for adults with children in the household. Social media-based efforts can be utilized to increase knowledge of the benefits of HPV vaccination as cancer prevention, which may be a precursor to reducing HPV vaccine hesitancy and encouraging uptake to decrease cancer incidence rates among vulnerable populations.

Association between private drinking water wells and the incidence of Campylobacteriosis in Maryland: An ecological analysis using Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) data (2007-2016)

Campylobacter is a leading cause of bacterial foodborne illness in the United States. Campylobacter infections have most often been associated with food-related risk factors, such as the consumption of poultry and raw milk. Socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental factors, including drinking water source, can also influence the risk of campylobacteriosis. Approximately 19% of Maryland residents rely on private wells as their sole source of water. Given that the federal Safe Drinking Water Act does not regulate the water quality of private wells, these could be important non-foodborne transmission pathways for Campylobacter. To address this issue, data on the number of culture-confirmed cases of Campylobacter infection in Maryland between 2007 and 2016 were obtained from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network. Cases were linked by zip code with data from the Maryland well permits registry, the 2010 U.S. Census, the 2016 American Community Survey, and the USDA Agricultural Census. Campylobacteriosis incidence rates and well prevalence were calculated by zip code. Negative binomial regression models were then constructed to evaluate the association between the prevalence of private wells, presence/absence of animal feeding operations and the incidence of campylobacteriosis across the physiographic provinces in Maryland. From 2007 to 2016, a total of 5746 cases of campylobacteriosis were reported in Maryland, and annual incidence rates ranged from 6.65 to 11.59 per 100,000 people. In our statewide analysis, a significant positive association was observed between well prevalence and increased campylobacteriosis incidence at the zip code level (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 1.35, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.11, 1.63). A significant positive association was also observed between well prevalence and increased campylobacteriosis incidence in the Appalachian and Coastal provinces of Maryland (IRR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.11, 7.76 and IRR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.25, 2.31, respectively). The presence of broiler chicken operations, increasing median age and percentage of residents living in poverty were also significantly associated with campylobacteriosis incidence at the zip code level in some physiographic provinces in Maryland. To our knowledge, these are the first US data to demonstrate an association between prevalence of private wells and campylobacteriosis incidence at the zip code level.

The acceptability of smokeless tobacco products depends on nicotine levels

Understanding the role nicotine plays in initiating and sustaining addiction has been of interest for the scientific community and general population, with the idea that low levels of nicotine will reduce abuse liability associated with smokeless tobacco products. Previously, research has relied on subjective assessments to determine consumer acceptability, but these measures cannot provide a characterization of the physiological responses associated with nicotine use. Consumer acceptability arises from psychological and neurophysiological factors, thus establishing the need to use subjective and objective measurements in conjunction. This study provides a comprehensive characterization of the subjective and objective effects of smokeless tobacco product use with varying levels of nicotine. EEG data were recorded before and after the use of four different smokeless tobacco products and one control product over five separate visits, with participants arriving to each visit after 12 h of tobacco abstinence. These products have distinct consumer acceptability levels and patterns of use characteristics ranging from starter products to those used primarily by established users. Subjective results showed that smokeless tobacco products with higher levels of nicotine were more successful in reducing craving and more reinforcing than those with lower levels. These results were concordant with the activity present in the EEG recordings where products with high nicotine levels produced larger changes in the amplitude of the event-related signal than those with low levels. This study is fundamental in understanding the relationship between subjective and objective smokeless tobacco acceptability measurements, as mediated by the different levels of nicotine in each product.

Causes of Excess Deaths in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria: A Time-Series Estimation

Objectives. To determine the number and causes of excess deaths in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria made landfall on September 20, 2017. Methods. We obtained monthly vital statistics data on all deaths from January 2008 through October 2017. We conducted a time-series analysis to estimate excess mortality in September and October 2017 overall and by age, sex, and cause of death. Results. We estimated a total of 1205 excess deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] = 707, 1702). Excess deaths were slightly higher among men than women (632 and 579 deaths, respectively) and found only among people aged 60 years or older (1038 deaths). Most excess deaths occurred from heart disease (253 deaths), "other" causes (204 deaths), diabetes (195 deaths), Alzheimer's disease (122 deaths), and septicemia (81 deaths). Conclusions. The number of excess deaths was similar to recent government estimates. However, this study is the first to identify the causes of death that were exacerbated by the disaster. Public Health Implications. An accurate estimation of the top causes of excess mortality can help authorities plan resource allocation for the island's recovery and for the prevention of deaths in future disasters.

Dissociating the effect of flavor and nicotine in smokeless tobacco products using electroencephalography: The case of wintergreen flavors

The increased consumption of tobacco products in recent years has been linked, among other factors, to the presence of added flavors. Although flavors are important in explaining consumption, their effects in the brain have until now been unexplored. In the present study, we investigated how electrophysiology can serve to dissociate the effects of nicotine and flavor. Participants attended 4 sessions (2-by-2 factorial design, with flavor and nicotine as within-subject factors), in each session an oddball task was performed before and after smokeless tobacco consumption. We explored the dissociation of neural responses to flavor and nicotine. While event-related potentials did not show modulation due to flavors, time-frequency showed a flavor-nicotine dissociation. Low-frequency activity (delta, theta and alpha) showed only effects of nicotine, and high-frequency activity (beta1, beta2 and gamma) showed effects only susceptible to flavor. Flavors in smokeless tobacco not only made the product more desirable but also triggered the allocation of cognitive resources. This long-lasting effect of flavor may enhance the addictive potential of the tobacco product. Further research is being developed to determine the precise role of flavors in contributing to addiction. This is the first study investigating the neural effects of flavor (specifically wintergreen) in smokeless tobacco products. By understanding the effects of flavors in the brain we can explain the precipitants of tobacco consumption behaviors, and the addictive potential of flavors. Regulators will be able to determine if and in which amount flavors should be allowed in tobacco products.

Responses to cigarette health warning labels, harm perceptions and knowledge in a national sample of pregnant and non-pregnant women of reproductive age

INTRODUCTION

Little is known about the effectiveness of cigarette health warning labels (HWLs) among U.S. pregnant and non-pregnant women of reproductive age. Our intent was to examine HWL responses by pregnancy status and their associations with knowledge and perceived harm.

METHODS

We conducted cross-sectional analyses of first (2013-2014) and second (2014-2015) Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health waves. The sample (N = 19,095) was representative of U.S. women of reproductive age (18-45 years). We examined three HWL responses (seeing HWLs, forgoing cigarettes because of HWLs, likely-to-quit because of HWLs), perceived harm from smoking, and knowledge of health effects to fetuses and others. Weighted logistic regression compared HWL responses by pregnancy status and their associations with perceived harm and knowledge, adjusting for demographics and tobacco use. Results were presented as marginal predicted probabilities.

RESULTS

Pregnant smokers were less likely than never-pregnant smokers to report likelihood of quitting (57% vs 67%, p = 0.020). Forgoing cigarettes and likely-to-quit due to HWLs-but not seeing HWLs-were positively associated with perceived harm and knowledge. Pregnant smokers were less likely to have knowledge of fetal harm (83%) than ever-pregnant (91%, p = 0.006) and never-pregnant (92%, p = 0.003) smokers. However, pregnant smokers who reported likelihood of quitting were much more likely to have knowledge of fetal harm than those who did not (93% vs. 67%, p = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of HWLs that elicit stronger reactions-such as pictorial HWLs-and increase knowledge of fetal risks is one action to help reduce tobacco use in pregnant and non-pregnant U.S. women of reproductive age.

Multi-Mode Radar Target Detection and Recognition Using Neural Networks

In typical radar systems, the process of recognizing a target requires human involvement. This human element makes radar systems not fully reliable due to unstable performance that varies between operators. This paper describes an intelligent radar system which addresses this problem in a border surveillance environment. The proposed radar system is capable of automatically detecting and then classifying different targets using an artificial neural network trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The training and test sets presented to the neural network are composed by high-resolution Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar pictures obtained by the radar's detection module. Simulation results show that the intelligent radar system can reliably detect and distinguish the different objectives. Moreover, the radar system can outperform human operators and another radar system that deals with similar objectives. These results indicate that future intelligent systems can potentially replace human radar operators in this critical security setting.

Mentholation affects the cigarette microbiota by selecting for bacteria resistant to harsh environmental conditions and selecting against potential bacterial pathogens

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of data regarding the microbial constituents of tobacco products and their impacts on public health. Moreover, there has been no comparative characterization performed on the bacterial microbiota associated with the addition of menthol, an additive that has been used by tobacco manufacturers for nearly a century. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted bacterial community profiling on tobacco from user- and custom-mentholated/non-mentholated cigarette pairs, as well as a commercially-mentholated product. Total genomic DNA was extracted using a multi-step enzymatic and mechanical lysis protocol followed by PCR amplification of the V3-V4 hypervariable regions of the 16S rRNA gene from five cigarette products (18 cigarettes per product for a total of 90 samples): Camel Crush, user-mentholated Camel Crush, Camel Kings, custom-mentholated Camel Kings, and Newport Menthols. Sequencing was performed on the Illumina MiSeq platform and sequences were processed using the Quantitative Insights Into Microbial Ecology (QIIME) software package.

RESULTS

In all products, Pseudomonas was the most abundant genera and included Pseudomonas oryzihabitans and Pseudomonas putida, regardless of mentholation status. However, further comparative analysis of the five products revealed significant differences in the bacterial compositions across products. Bacterial community richness was higher among non-mentholated products compared to those that were mentholated, particularly those that were custom-mentholated. In addition, mentholation appeared to be correlated with a reduction in potential human bacterial pathogens and an increase in bacterial species resistant to harsh environmental conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, these data provide preliminary evidence that the mentholation of commercially available cigarettes can impact the bacterial community of these products.

Association between Florida's smoke-free policy and acute myocardial infarction by race: A time series analysis, 2000-2013

INTRODUCTION

Racial disparities in acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs) are increasing over time. Previous studies have shown that the implementation of smoke-free policies is associated with reduced AMI rates. The objective of this study was to determine the association between smoke-free policy and AMI hospitalization rates and smoking by race.

METHODS

Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project data from Florida from 2000-2013 were analyzed using interrupted time series analysis to determine the relationship between Florida's smoke-free restaurant and workplace laws and AMI among the total adult population (aged ≥18years), by age, race, and gender. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data from Florida from 2000 to 2010 were analyzed using logistic regression to determine the association between policy and the adult smoking prevalence.

RESULTS

After implementation of the smoke-free policy, no statistically significant associations between AMI hospitalization rates or smoking prevalence were detected in the total population. In the subgroup analysis, the policy was associated with declines in AMI hospitalization rates among non-Hispanic white adults aged 18-44years (β=-0.001 per 10,000, p-value=0.0083). No other relationships with AMI hospitalization rates and smoking prevalence were found in the subgroup analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

More comprehensive smoke-free and tobacco control policies are needed to further reduce AMI hospitalization rates, particularly among minority populations. Further research is needed to understand and address how the implementation of smoke-free policies affects secondhand smoke exposure among racial and ethnic minorities.

Presence of animal feeding operations and community socioeconomic factors impact salmonellosis incidence rates: An ecological analysis using data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), 2004-2010

Nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. are a leading cause of foodborne illness. Risk factors for salmonellosis include the consumption of contaminated chicken, eggs, pork and beef. Agricultural, environmental and socioeconomic factors also have been associated with rates of Salmonella infection. However, to our knowledge, these factors have not been modeled together at the community-level to improve our understanding of whether rates of salmonellosis are variable across communities defined by differing factors. To address this knowledge gap, we obtained data on culture-confirmed Salmonella Typhimurium, S. Enteritidis, S. Newport and S. Javiana cases (2004-2010; n=14,297) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), and socioeconomic, environmental and agricultural data from the 2010 Census of Population and Housing, the 2011 American Community Survey, and the 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture. We linked data by zip code and derived incidence rate ratios using negative binomial regressions. Multiple community-level factors were associated with salmonellosis rates; however, our findings varied by state. For example, in Georgia (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR)=1.01; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)=1.005-1.015) Maryland (IRR=1.01; 95% CI=1.003-1.015) and Tennessee (IRR=1.01; 95% CI=1.002-1.012), zip codes characterized by greater rurality had higher rates of S. Newport infections. The presence of broiler chicken operations, dairy operations and cattle operations in a zip code also was associated with significantly higher rates of infection with at least one serotype in states that are leading producers of these animal products. For instance, in Georgia and Tennessee, rates of S. Enteritidis infection were 48% (IRR=1.48; 95% CI=1.12-1.95) and 46% (IRR=1.46; 95% CI=1.17-1.81) higher in zip codes with broiler chicken operations compared to those without these operations. In Maryland, New Mexico and Tennessee, higher poverty levels in zip codes were associated with higher rates of infection with one or more Salmonella serotypes. In Georgia and Tennessee, zip codes with higher percentages of the population composed of African Americans had significantly higher rates of infection with one or more Salmonella serotypes. In summary, our findings show that community-level agricultural, environmental and socioeconomic factors may be important with regard to rates of infection with Salmonella Typhimurium, Enteritidis, Newport and Javiana.

Association between community socioeconomic factors, animal feeding operations, and campylobacteriosis incidence rates: Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), 2004-2010

Background

Campylobacter is a leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States. Campylobacter infections have been associated with individual risk factors, such as the consumption of poultry and raw milk. Recently, a Maryland-based study identified community socioeconomic and environmental factors that are also associated with campylobacteriosis rates. However, no previous studies have evaluated the association between community risk factors and campylobacteriosis rates across multiple U.S. states.

Methods

We obtained Campylobacter case data (2004–2010; n = 40,768) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) and socioeconomic and environmental data from the 2010 Census of Population and Housing, the 2011 American Community Survey, and the 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture. We linked data by zip code and derived incidence rate ratios using negative binomial regression models.

Results

Community socioeconomic and environmental factors were associated with both lower and higher campylobacteriosis rates. Zip codes with higher percentages of African Americans had lower rates of campylobacteriosis (incidence rate ratio [IRR]) = 0.972; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.970,0.974). In Georgia, Maryland, and Tennessee, three leading broiler chicken producing states, zip codes with broiler operations had incidence rates that were 22 % (IRR = 1.22; 95 % CI = 1.03,1.43), 16 % (IRR = 1.16; 95 % CI = 0.99,1.37), and 35 % (IRR = 1.35; 95 % CI = 1.18,1.53) higher, respectively, than those of zip codes without broiler operations. In Minnesota and New York FoodNet counties, two top dairy producing areas, zip codes with dairy operations had significantly higher campylobacteriosis incidence rates (IRR = 1.37; 95 % CI = 1.22, 1.55; IRR = 1.19; 95 % CI = 1.04,1.36).

Conclusions

Community socioeconomic and environmental factors are important to consider when evaluating the relationship between possible risk factors and Campylobacter infection.

Using Electrophysiological Measures to Assess the Consumer Acceptability of Smokeless Tobacco Products

INTRODUCTION

Adequate evaluation of novel tobacco products must include investigation of consumers' psychological response to such products. Traditionally, subjective scales of product liking have been used to assess consumer acceptability of tobacco products. However, subjective scales may miss cognitive changes that can only be captured by direct neurophysiological assessment. The present investigation explored the viability of using electroencephalography (EEG), in combination with traditional subjective measures, to assess consumer acceptability of five smokeless tobacco products. Given previous work linking product liking to arousal/attentional (executive function) enhancement, we focused on EEG measures of attention/arousal to objectively characterize cognitive changes associated with tobacco product use.

METHODS

During five separate laboratory visits, smokeless tobacco users used Verve discs, Ariva dissolvables, Skoal snuff, Camel snus, or Nicorette lozenges. The N2 and P3b event-related potential components elicited by an oddball task were used to index attentional changes before/after product usage. Additionally, resting state alpha band EEG activity was analyzed before/after product usage to index cortical arousal.

RESULTS

Although analyses of the subjective results provided limited inference, analyses of the electrophysiological measures, particularly the alpha suppression measure, revealed robust differences between products. Skoal elicited significantly enhanced alpha suppression compared to all four other products tested. Additionally, alpha suppression was found to correlate positively with subjective measures of satisfaction and psychological reward, but was unrelated to perceived aversion.

CONCLUSIONS

The present results provide evidence that electrophysiological measures can yield important insights into consumer acceptability of novel tobacco products and are a valuable complement to subjective measures.

IMPLICATIONS

This study is the first to employ a combination of electrophysiological measures and traditional subjective assays in order to assess the consumer acceptability of smokeless tobacco products. The results highlight the importance of adopting a multidimensional/multi-method approach to studying the consumer acceptability of tobacco products.

Isoflavone pharmacokinetics and metabolism after consumption of a standardized soy and soy-almond bread in men with asymptomatic prostate cancer

Epidemiologic associations suggest that populations consuming substantial amounts of dietary soy exhibit a lower risk of prostate cancer. A 20-week randomized, phase II, crossover trial was conducted in 32 men with asymptomatic prostate cancer. The crossover involved 8 weeks each of soy bread (SB) and soy-almond bread (SAB). The primary objective was to investigate isoflavone bioavailability and metabolite profile. Secondary objectives include safety, compliance, and assessment of biomarkers linked to prostate carcinogenesis. Two distinct SBs were formulated to deliver approximately 60 mg aglycone equivalents of isoflavones per day. The isoflavones were present as aglycones (∼78% as aglycones) in the SAB whereas in the standard SB predominantly as glucosides (18% total isoflavones as aglycones). Compliance to SB (97% ± 4%) and SAB (92% ± 18%) was excellent; toxicity was rare and limited to grade 1 gastrointestinal complaints. Pharmacokinetic studies between SB and SAB showed modest differences. Peak serum concentration time (Tmax) was significantly faster with SAB meal compared with SB in some isoflavonoids, and AUC0 to 24 h of dihydrodaidzein and O-desmethylangolensin was significantly greater after an SB meal. An exploratory cluster analysis was used to identify four isoflavone-metabolizing phenotypes. Insulin-like growth factor-binding protein increased significantly by 41% (P = 0.024) with soy intervention. Findings from this study provide the necessary framework to study isoflavone-metabolizing phenotypes as a strategy for identification of individuals that might benefit or show resistance to cancer preventive strategies using dietary soy. A standardized SB used for future large-scale randomized clinical trials to affect human prostate carcinogenesis is feasible.

Lower prevalence of antibiotic-resistant Salmonella on large-scale U.S. conventional poultry farms that transitioned to organic practices

As a result of the widespread use of antibiotics in large-scale U.S. poultry production, a significant proportion of Salmonella strains recovered from conventional poultry farms and retail poultry products express antibiotic resistance. We evaluated whether large-scale poultry farms that transitioned from conventional to organic practices and discontinued antibiotic use were characterized by differences in the prevalence of antibiotic-resistant Salmonella compared to farms that maintained conventional practices. We collected poultry litter, water and feed samples from 10 newly organic and 10 conventional poultry houses. Samples were analyzed for Salmonella using standard enrichment methods. Isolates were confirmed using standard biochemical tests and the Vitek®2 Compact System. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by Sensititre® microbroth dilution. Data were analyzed using Fisher's exact test and generalized linear mixed models. We detected Salmonella in both conventional and newly organic poultry houses. Salmonella Kentucky was the predominant serovar identified, followed by S. Orion, S. Enteritidis, S. Gostrup and S. Infantis. Among S. Kentucky isolates (n=41), percent resistance was statistically significantly lower among isolates recovered from newly organic versus conventional poultry houses for: amoxicillin-clavulanate (p=0.049), ampicillin (p=0.042), cefoxitin (p=0.042), ceftiofur (p=0.043) and ceftriaxone (p=0.042). Percent multidrug resistance (resistance to ≥3 antimicrobial classes) was also statistically significantly lower among S. Kentucky isolates recovered from newly organic poultry houses (6%) compared to those recovered from conventional houses (44%) (p=0.015). To our knowledge, these are the first U.S. data to show immediate, on-farm changes in the prevalence of antibiotic-resistant Salmonella when antibiotics are voluntarily withdrawn from large-scale poultry facilities in the United States.

Impact of rurality, broiler operations, and community socioeconomic factors on the risk of campylobacteriosis in Maryland

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the combined impact of community-level environmental and socioeconomic factors on the risk of campylobacteriosis.

METHODS

We obtained Campylobacter case data (2002-2010; n = 3694) from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network. We obtained community-level socioeconomic and environmental data from the 2000 US Census and the 2007 US Census of Agriculture. We linked data by zip code. We derived incidence rate ratios by Poisson regressions. We mapped a subset of zip code-level characteristics.

RESULTS

In zip codes that were 100% rural, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of campylobacteriosis were 6 times (IRR = 6.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.19, 11.97) greater than those in urban zip codes. In zip codes with broiler chicken operations, incidence rates were 1.45 times greater than those in zip codes without broilers (IRR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.34, 1.58). We also observed higher rates in zip codes whose populations were predominantly White and had high median incomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The community and environment in which one lives may significantly influence the risk of campylobacteriosis.

Logic minimization and rule extraction for identification of functional sites in molecular sequences

Background

Logic minimization is the application of algebraic axioms to a binary dataset with the purpose of reducing the number of digital variables and/or rules needed to express it. Although logic minimization techniques have been applied to bioinformatics datasets before, they have not been used in classification and rule discovery problems. In this paper, we propose a method based on logic minimization to extract predictive rules for two bioinformatics problems involving the identification of functional sites in molecular sequences: transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) in DNA and O-glycosylation sites in proteins. TFBS are important in various developmental processes and glycosylation is a posttranslational modification critical to protein functions.

Methods

In the present study, we first transformed the original biological dataset into a suitable binary form. Logic minimization was then applied to generate sets of simple rules to describe the transformed dataset. These rules were used to predict TFBS and O-glycosylation sites. The TFBS dataset is obtained from the TRANSFAC database, while the glycosylation dataset was compiled using information from OGLYCBASE and the Swiss-Prot Database.

We performed the same predictions using two standard classification techniques, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), and used their sensitivities and positive predictive values as benchmarks for the performance of our proposed algorithm. SVM were also used to reduce the number of variables included in the logic minimization approach.

Results

For both TFBS and O-glycosylation sites, the prediction performance of the proposed logic minimization method was generally comparable and, in some cases, superior to the standard ANN and SVM classification methods with the advantage of providing intelligible rules to describe the datasets. In TFBS prediction, logic minimization produced a very small set of simple rules. In glycosylation site prediction, the rules produced were also interpretable and the most popular rules generated appeared to correlate well with recently reported hydrophilic/hydrophobic enhancement values of amino acids around possible O-glycosylation sites. Experiments with Self-Organizing Neural Networks corroborate the practical worth of the logic minimization method for these case studies.

Conclusions

The proposed logic minimization algorithm provides sets of rules that can be used to predict TFBS and O-glycosylation sites with sensitivity and positive predictive value comparable to those from ANN and SVM. Moreover, the logic minimization method has the additional capability of generating interpretable rules that allow biological scientists to correlate the predictions with other experimental results and to form new hypotheses for further investigation. Additional experiments with alternative rule-extraction techniques demonstrate that the logic minimization method is able to produce accurate rules from datasets with large numbers of variables and limited numbers of positive examples.

Least-Squares Support Vector Machine Approach to Viral Replication Origin Prediction

Replication of their DNA genomes is a central step in the reproduction of many viruses. Procedures to find replication origins, which are initiation sites of the DNA replication process, are therefore of great importance for controlling the growth and spread of such viruses. Existing computational methods for viral replication origin prediction have mostly been tested within the family of herpesviruses. This paper proposes a new approach by least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) and tests its performance not only on the herpes family but also on a collection of caudoviruses coming from three viral families under the order of caudovirales. The LS-SVM approach provides sensitivities and positive predictive values superior or comparable to those given by the previous methods. When suitably combined with previous methods, the LS-SVM approach further improves the prediction accuracy for the herpesvirus replication origins. Furthermore, by recursive feature elimination, the LS-SVM has also helped find the most significant features of the data sets. The results suggest that the LS-SVMs will be a highly useful addition to the set of computational tools for viral replication origin prediction and illustrate the value of optimization-based computing techniques in biomedical applications.