Is there an association between family members' season of birth that could influence birth seasonality? Evidence from Spain and France

The number of births varies by season. Research on birth seasonality has shown that women's season of birth somehow influences that of their children, but factors underlying the intergenerational transmission of birth seasonality remain unknown. With data from Spain and France, we analysed the possibility of transmission of birth season between generations, testing whether relatives tended to be born in the same season. Results indicated that there was an association-a similarity-between parents' and children's birth seasons, partially explaining the stability of seasonal patterns over time. This association also existed between parents' birth seasons. While parents' association is directly explained by an excess of marriages with spouses born in the same month, the overall association may be explained by two facts: different socio-demographic groups show differentiated birth patterns, and relatives share socio-demographic features. Birth season seems to be related to family characteristics, which should be controlled for when assessing birth-month effects on subsequent social/health outcomes.

Trend of incompleteness of the Robson Classification variables in the Live Birth Information (SINASC) in the state of Paraná, Brazil, 2014-2020

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incompleteness of the Robson Classification variables in the Live Birth Information System (Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos - SINASC), in the state of Paraná, and its trend, 2014-2020.

METHODS

This was a time-series study that analyzed six variables, according to health macro-regions. Incompleteness was classified (percentage of "ignored" and "blank fields") as follows: excellent (< 1.0%); good (1.0-2.9%); regular (3.0-6.9%); poor (≥ 7.0%). Prais-Winsten regression was used to estimate trends.

RESULTS

A total of 1,089,116 births were evaluated. The variable "cesarean section before the onset of labor" was classified as poor in 2014 (39.4%) and 2015 (44.3%) in the state and in all macro-regions, but with a decreasing trend in incompleteness. The variables "gestational age" in the North and Northwest macro-regions, and "parity" and "number of fetuses" in the Northwest macro-region showed an increasing trend.

CONCLUSION

Most of the variables evaluated showed low percentages of incompleteness with a decreasing trend, but there is a need to improve the completion of some variables.

John Graunt F.R.S. (1620-74): The founding father of human demography, epidemiology and vital statistics

John Graunt, a largely self-educated London draper, can plausibly be regarded as the founding father of demography, epidemiology and vital statistics. In his only publication, based on a pioneering analysis of the London Bills of Mortality, he replaced guesswork with reasoned estimates of population sizes and the first accurate information on male:female ratios. He quantified the extent of immigration from countryside to city and his demonstration of the 'dying out' of a cohort paved the way for life table analysis. His comparison of London data with rural data provided the first recognition of the 'urban penalty'. His use of the first known tabular aggregates of health data clarified distinctions between acute diseases, which were often epidemic, and chronic illnesses which were often endemic. He quantified the high infant mortality and attempted the calculation of a case fatality rate during an epidemic of fever. He was the first to document the phenomenon of 'excess deaths' during epidemics. He provided a template for numerical analysis of demographic and health data and initiated the concepts of statistical association, statistical inference and population sampling. By making a novel concept intelligible to a broad audience he influenced the thinking of doctors, demographers and mathematicians.

[Evaluation of the effectiveness of the intervention to improve the Brazilian Mortality Information System in Pernambuco, Brazil: a quasi-experimental study]

This study evaluated the influence of the variation in the implementation of the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) on the results, before and after the intervention to improve the system in Pernambuco, Brazil. The SIM logical model and matrix of indicators and assessment were described, primary data were collected from the 184 municipalities and secondary data were collected from the system database. The degree of implementation (DI) was obtained from the indicators of structure and process, and then related to result indicators, based on the model. The intervention was directed at the shortcomings identified, and developed using strategic stages. The percentage of annual variation of the DI and the results before and after the intervention were calculated. The SIM was classified as partially implemented in the pre- (70.6%) and post-intervention (73.1%) evaluations, with increments in all components. The Health Regions followed the same classification of the state level, except for XII (80.3%), regarding implemented score after the intervention. The coverage of the system; deaths with a defined underlying cause; monthly transfer; and timely submission of data were above 90% in both evaluations. There was an improvement in the completeness of infant Death Certificates and in the timely recording of notifiable events. Strengthening the management and operationalization of the SIM with interventions applied to data registration can improve the system's results.

Birth Notification and Registration: A Survey on Knowledge and Attitude Among Postpartum Women in Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Birth registration is the official and permanent recording of a child's birth within a civil registry, according to the legal requirements of a country. Although the Sustainable Development Goal targets providing legal identity for all by 2030, birth registration levels remain critically low. Therefore, this study aimed to assess postpartum women's knowledge of and attitudes towards birth registration and its associated factors in Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from September 1-30/2022 among 422 participants who were selected using systematic random sampling. A pretested and structured interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data. Data were entered into EPI Info 7 and analyzed using SPSS version 25. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify the factors associated with knowledge and attitudes towards birth registration. Variables with a p-value of <0.05 were considered to be significantly associated with the dependent variable.

Results

Among the participants, 41.7% had good knowledge of birth registration. Less than one-quarter (22.6%) had a favorable attitude towards birth registration. Having a college and above educational level (AOR = 4.01, 95% CI: 2.3-8.4), being urban resident (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI: 3.1-7.4) and full exposure to media (AOR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.5-5.7) were associated with knowledge of birth registration. Having primary educational status (AOR = 2.04, 95% CI: 2.96-8.31), being fully exposed to different media (AOR = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.22-11.36) and having four or more antenatal care visits (AOR = 5.10, 95% CI: 1.18-14.35) were associated with favorable attitudes towards birth registration.

Conclusion

Postpartum women had poor knowledge of and attitudes towards birth registration. Increasing educated women at all levels, awareness rising through different media and integration of birth registration with antenatal care is crucial for realizing the registration of all births by 2030.

The translation into Portuguese of the 11th International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-11)

The 11th International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-11) represents an advance in the focus on knowledge and new disease approaches. The ICD is used for different practical purposes, enabling assessment of progress in the global health agenda, resource allocation, patient safety, health care qualification, and health insurance reimbursement. It is entirely digital, with technological resources that allow periodic updating. In early 2022, ICD-11 entered into official force, having been made available in several official ICD languages such as Arabic, Chinese, Spanish, French, and English. The translation process into Brazilian Portuguese, coordinated by the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), with support from the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MS) and PAHO/WHO, is presented here. The work was carried out in three stages between August 2021 and December 2022 by translators with different backgrounds: medical specialists (49), physiotherapists (1), pharmacologists (1), and dentists (1). This methodological article aims to broaden the discussion of perspectives on implementing the ICD-11 in Brazil and build an opportunity for its adaptation and use by other Portuguese-speaking countries.

Associations of Prenatal Agricultural Farm Work with Fetal Overgrowth and Pregnancy Complications in State of Arizona Birth Records

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to examine fetal growth outcomes from agricultural worker households.

METHODS

Using Arizona 2006 to 2013 birth certificates with parental occupation, we identified N = 623,185 live births by agricultural household status. Logistic regression models estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for macrosomia (>4000 g), postterm birth (>41 weeks), low birth weight (<2500 g), preterm birth (<37 weeks), large for GA, small for GA, and 5-minute APGAR (<7).

RESULTS

Newborns of agricultural households (n = 6371) had a higher risk of macrosomia (aOR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.26), large for GA (aOR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22), postterm birth (aOR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.33), and low 5-minute APGAR (aOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.81), whereas low birth weight (aOR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.96) and preterm birth (aOR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.92) were inversely related.

CONCLUSIONS

Having an agriculture working parent increased the likelihood of fetal overgrowth and low APGAR.

Assessment of incompleteness of Mortality Information System records on deaths from external causes in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 2000-2019

OBJECTIVE

to evaluate the incompleteness of Mortality Information System (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade - SIM) data on deaths from external causes (ECs) in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 2000-2019.

METHODS

This was an ecological study, using SIM data on all deaths from external causes and, specifically, from transport accident, homicides, suicides and falls; the analysis of the trend of incompleteness was performed by means of Prais-Winsten regression, with a 5% significance level.

RESULTS

A total of 146,882 deaths were evaluated; sex (0.1%), place of death (0.1%) and age (0.4%) showed the lowest incompleteness in 2019; the proportion of incompleteness showed a decreasing trend for the place of death and schooling, an increasing trend for marital status and a stable trend for age and race/skin color, among all types of death evaluated.

CONCLUSION

the variables analyzed reached a high degree of completion; with the exception of marital status and schooling, for which unsatisfactory scores persisted for deaths from ECs, both total and by subgroups.

[Evolution of the completeness and consistency of the gastroschisis registry in the Brazilian Live Birth Information System, from 2005 to 2020]

This study aimed to evaluate the evolution of the completeness and consistency of the gastroschisis registry in the Brazilian Live Birth Information System (SINASC). It is a time-series study on the completeness of the variable "occurrence of congenital anomaly" and the consistency of gastroschisis diagnosis in SINASC, in biennia from 2005 to 2020, for federative units, region, and Brazil. The consistency was estimated by the ratio between deaths from gastroschisis registered in the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) and the total number of cases recorded in SINASC. Temporal trend was analyzed by joinpoint regression. In the period, 46,574,995 live births and 10,024 cases of gastroschisis were recorded. A total of 5,632 infant deaths due to gastroschisis were identified. The percentage of incompleteness decreased from 6.52% to 1.87%, with an annual percentage variation (APV) of -14.5%, and completeness reached excellence (≤ 5% of incompleteness), except in the Central-West Region. Case/death ratios above 1 were found in the North and Northeast regions and in some federative units in the Central-West, but there was a decrease, approaching the mortality found in studies in the South and Southeast regions. Its reduction was more pronounced until 2009-2010 (APV = -10.7%) and smaller later (APV = -4.4%). The quality of the gastroschisis registry reflects regional differences in the overall quality of SINASC, constituting as a marker for malformations that require complex neonatal care.

Similar geographic distributions of death rates from inflammatory bowel disease and Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

A previous comparative analysis of the time trends of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), multiple sclerosis (MS), Crohn's disease (CD), and ulcerative colitis (UC) suggested that the occurrence of all four diseases was precipitated by exposure to similar environmental risk factors during early lifetime. In the present cross-sectional study, it was hypothesized that besides their resembling temporal variations the four diseases would also show similar geographic distributions.

METHODS

Using the vital statistics of 21 countries from 1951 to 2020, overall and age-specific death rates from the four diseases were calculated for each individual country. The death rates of different countries were compared using linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

The data revealed strikingly similar geographic distributions of all four diseases. Their occurrence was common in Europe and relatively uncommon in countries outside Europe. Further stratification by consecutive age groups showed that for each disease analyzed separately, there were significant correlations amongst each two sequential age groups. In HL and UC, the inter-age correlations started at age 5 years or less. In MS and CD, the inter-age correlations only started at age 15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The similarities in the geographic distributions of death rates from HL, MS, CD, and UC suggest that these four diseases share a set of one or more common environmental risk factors. The data also support the contention that the exposure to such shared risk factors starts during an early period of lifetime.

Current state of cause of death determinations in Japan and the need to list the precise underlying cause of death

When death is caused by a disease, the precise cause of the death must be determined to promote health and contribute to prevention efforts. The circumstances of death should also be clarified so that measures can be taken to prevent the recurrence. Statistics regarding the cause of death must be accurate, and such statistics are shaped by the determination of the cause of death. We examined the annual cause of death rankings and the mortality rate in Japan during the 25-year period 1993-2017. We identified improvements that are needed to provide more precision in the cause of death statistics, with a focus on variations in the rankings, and we describe the peculiar and vulnerable aspects of the Vital Statistics system in Japan; for example, at one time the national government advised physicians to not list "heart failure" as the terminal stage of a condition on a death certificate, and the "heart disease" mortality rate thus tended to decline in that period. The ranking of "heart disease" as a cause of death decreased, but its mortality rate subsequently increased again. In addition, the "pneumonia" mortality rate has remained high over the past few years, but it abruptly decreased in 2017, when "aspiration pneumonia" was separated as a cause from other pneumonias. The "senility" mortality rate has increased annually, and it is a leading cause of death. It is important that physicians understand the underlying causes of death and provide that without being influenced by the reporting customs of the times.

Chronic Diseases Associated With Mortality in British Columbia, Canada During the 2021 Western North America Extreme Heat Event

Western North America experienced an unprecedented extreme heat event (EHE) in 2021, characterized by high temperatures and reduced air quality. There were approximately 740 excess deaths during the EHE in the province of British Columbia, making it one of the deadliest weather events in Canadian history. It is important to understand who is at risk of death during EHEs so that appropriate public health interventions can be developed. This study compares 1,614 deaths from 25 June to 02 July 2021 with 6,524 deaths on the same dates from 2012 to 2020 to examine differences in the prevalence of 26 chronic diseases between the two groups. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) for each chronic disease, adjusted for age, sex, and all other diseases, and conditioned on geographic area. The OR [95% confidence interval] for schizophrenia among all EHE deaths was 3.07 [2.39, 3.94], and was larger than the ORs for other conditions. Chronic kidney disease and ischemic heart disease were also significantly increased among all EHE deaths, with ORs of 1.36 [1.18, 1.56] and 1.18 [1.00, 1.38], respectively. Chronic diseases associated with EHE mortality were somewhat different for deaths attributed to extreme heat, deaths with an unknown/pending cause, and non-heat-related deaths. Schizophrenia was the only condition associated with significantly increased odds of EHE mortality in all three subgroups. These results confirm the role of mental illness in EHE risk and provide further impetus for interventions that target specific groups of high-risk individuals based on underlying chronic conditions.

Analysis of an Association between Preterm Birth and Parental Educational Level in Japan Using National Data

Preterm birth rate depending on parental educational level in recent years has not been surveyed in Japan. In this study, we showed the trend in preterm birth rate depending on parental educational level from 2000 to 2020 by linking data from the Census regarding individuals' educational level and parents in birth data of the vital statistics. Four types of parental educational level, namely junior high school, high school, technical school or junior college, and university or graduate school, were compared. Slope and relative indexes of inequality for preterm birth by educational level were computed by binomial models. Data on 3,148,711 births and 381,129,294 people were used in the analysis, and data on 782,536 singleton births were used after data linkage. The preterm birth rate (%) for junior high school graduate mothers and fathers was 5.09 and 5.20 in 2020, respectively. Contrarily, the preterm birth rate (%) for parents who graduated from a university or graduate school was 4.24 for mothers and 4.39 for fathers, and the rate tended to increase as educational level decreased, irrespective of parental gender. Results of inequality indexes showed that a statistically significant inequality by parental educational level persisted from 2000 to 2020.

Description of the National Mortality Register of Panama

Introduction

The National Mortality Register (NMR) of Panama is a key element in demographic analysis and in acquiring an updated picture of population health in Panama. The main objectives of this study are to characterize the NMR and to enumerate its strengths and weaknesses.

Methods

We describe the history, processes, and structure of the Vital Statistics Section of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (the curator of the NMR database). In addition, we discuss publication punctuality, underregistration of the data, the proportion of registered deaths certified by medical doctors, and the top 5 causes of death according to the 80 groups of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision. We also examine works derived from the register's data, from the first publication on its website (2002) until 2019.

Results

The NMR procedures were described. The web reports of the NMR were performed with a delay of between 1 to 2 years. The underregistration of deaths in 2002-2019 was 14.7%, and the national yearly proportion of deaths certified by medical doctors was always above 90%. Hard-to-reach areas had higher underregistration proportions and fewer deaths certified by medical doctors. Information extracted from the NMR supports several national and international reports, geographic information systems, and studies. The most common causes of death between 2002 and 2019 were noncommunicable diseases.

Conclusions

The NMR is a robust official information system. However, hard-to-reach areas require improvement in terms of the NMR. The NMR is used for publishing official reports, writing studies, and updating reports on the current health status of Panama in a timely fashion following international guidelines.

Impact of endoscopic surveillance on mortality of metachronous esophageal and head and neck cancer after esophageal endoscopic resection

BACKGROUND AND AIM

As more superficial esophageal cancer (EC) patients are being treated with endoscopic resection (ER), it is important to understand the outcomes, including survival data, of patients who develop metachronous EC and head and neck cancer (HNC). We aimed to evaluate the long-term surveillance and survival outcomes of metachronous EC and HNC after esophageal ER.

METHODS

This study included 627 patients who underwent ER of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma from 2008 to 2016 and were generally followed by annual or biannual esophagogastroduodenoscopy up to 2019 at Osaka International Cancer Institute. Data on metachronous cancer development and causes of death were collected from an integrated database of hospital-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics of Japan.

RESULTS

During a median (range) follow-up period of 67.4 (3.8-142.7) months, 230 patients (36.7%) developed 500 metachronous ECs and 126 patients (20.1%) developed 239 metachronous HNCs, post-ER of index EC. The 3-year, 5-year, and 7-year cumulative incidences were 25.8%, 36.0%, and 43.6% for metachronous EC and 10.9%, 16.0%, and 26.9% for metachronous HNC, respectively. No patients died of metachronous EC, and only seven patients (1.1%) died of metachronous HNC. The 3-year, 5-year, and 7-year disease-specific survival rates were 99.8%, 99.6%, and 98.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidences of metachronous EC and HNC increase with time over 5 years after esophageal ER; therefore, surveillance endoscopy should be continued over 5 years. Endoscopic surveillance is useful for survivors after esophageal ER given the high incidence and extremely low mortality of metachronous EC and HNC.

Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Based on Social Distancing in Maryland, USA: A Time-Series Approach

OBJECTIVE

Our objective is to forecast the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of Maryland, United States, using transfer function time series (TS) models based on a Social Distancing Index (SDI) and determine how their parameters relate to the pandemic mechanics.

METHODS

A moving window of 2 mo was used to train the transfer function TS model that was then tested on the next week data. After accounting for a secular trend and weekly cycle of the SDI, a high correlation was documented between it and the daily caseload 9 days later. Similar patterns were also observed on the daily COVID-19 cases and incorporated in our models.

RESULTS

In most cases, the proposed models provide a reasonable performance that was, on average, moderately better than that delivered by TS models based only on previous observations. The model coefficients associated with the SDI were statistically significant for most of the training/test sets.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed models that incorporate SDI can forecast the number of COVID-19 cases in a region. Their parameters have real-life interpretations and, hence, can help understand the inner workings of the epidemic. The methods detailed here can help local health governments and other agencies adjust their response to the epidemic.

Physicians' Perceptions as Predictors of the Future Use of the National Death Information System in Peru: Cross-sectional Study

Background

A computer application called the National Death Information System (SINADEF) was implemented in Peru so that physicians can prepare death certificates in electronic format and the information is available online. In 2018, only half of the estimated deaths in Peru were certified using SINADEF. When a death is certified in paper format, the probability being entered in the mortality database decreases. It is important to know, from the user’s perspective, the factors that can influence the successful implementation of SINADEF. SINADEF can only be successfully implemented if it is known whether physicians believe that it is useful and easy to operate.

Objective

The aim of this study was to identify the perceptions of physicians and other factors as predictors of their behavioral intention to use SINADEF to certify a death.

Methods

This study had an observational, cross-sectional design. A survey was provided to physicians working in Peru, who used SINADEF to certify a death for a period of 12 months, starting in November 2019. A questionnaire was adapted based on the Technology Acceptance Model. The questions measured the dimensions of subjective norm, image, job relevance, output quality, demonstrability of results, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and behavioral intention to use. Chi-square and logistic regression tests were used in the analysis, and a confidence level of 95% was chosen to support a significant association.

Results

In this study, 272 physicians responded to the survey; 184 (67.6%) were men and the average age was 45.3 (SD 10.1) years. The age range was 24 to 73 years. In the bivariate analysis, the intention to use SINADEF was found to be associated with (1) perceived usefulness, expressed as “using SINADEF avoids falsifying a death certificate” (P<.001), “using SINADEF reduces the risk of errors” (P<.001), and “using SINADEF allows for filling out a certificate in less time” (P<.001); and (2) perceived ease of use, expressed as “I think SINADEF is easy to use” (P<.001). In the logistic regression, perceived usefulness (odds ratio [OR] 8.5, 95% CI 2.2-32.3; P=.002), perceived ease of use (OR 10.1, 95% CI 2.4-41.8; P=.001), and training in filling out death certificates (OR 8.3, 95% CI 1.6-42.8; P=.01) were found to be predictors of the behavioral intention to use SINADEF.

Conclusions

The behavioral intention to use SINADEF was related to the perception that it is an easy-to-use system, the belief that it improves the performance of physicians in carrying out the task at hand, and with training in filling out death certificates.

Spatial dynamics of fetal mortality and the relationship with social vulnerability

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of fetal mortality according to its relationship with social vulnerability, identifying priority areas for intervention.

METHODS

Ecological study conducted in the state of Pernambuco, Northeast region of Brazil, from 2011 to 2018. The mean fetal mortality rate per city was calculated for the studied period. A cluster analysis was performed to select cities with homogeneous characteristics regarding fetal mortality and social vulnerability, then the Attribute Weighting Algorithm and Pearson correlation techniques were employed. In the spatial analysis it was used the local empirical Bayesian modeling and global and local Moran statistics.

RESULTS

Twelve thousand nine hundred and twelve thousand fetal deaths were registered. The fetal mortality rate for the period was 11.44 fetal deaths per 1,000 births. The number of groups formed was 7, in which correlation was identified between fetal mortality and dimensions, highlighting the correlations between fetal mortality rate and the Index of Social Vulnerability urban infrastructure for the municipalities in group 1 and 5, the values of the correlations found were 0.478 and 0.674 respectively. The spatial analysis identified areas of higher risk for fetal mortality distributed in regions of medium, high and very high social vulnerability.

CONCLUSIONS

The study allowed observing the existing correlations between fetal mortality and social vulnerability and identifying priority areas for intervention, with a view to reducing fetal mortality in the state.

Prevalence of Congenital Anomaly and Its Relationship with Maternal Education and Age According to Local Development in the Extreme South of Brazil

Congenital anomalies (CA) contribute to disabilities and health conditions throughout life. Furthermore, they can cause emotional distress to the mothers and children, who may also experience limitations in individual and social development. This study investigated the prevalence of CA and the relationship with maternal education and age according to local development in the extreme south of Brazil. This is a retrospective observational study with birth data from the Live Birth Information System from 2000 to 2017. The association between age and maternal education with the presence of CA was verified using multiple Poisson regression for robust variances in models adjusted for those variables with a preliminary significant association. A total of 5131 (1.5%) had some CA identified at birth between 2000 and 2017. Only advanced age (≥36 years) was associated with CA regardless of macro-region development (p ≤ 0.001). The highest risk was observed in regions with medium development (RR = 1.60; 95% CI 1.30−1.97). Maternal education (<8 years of study) was associated with CA only in mothers from macro-regions with very high development (RR = 1.27; 95% CI 1.03−1.54). These analyses confirmed that women of advanced age are at greater risk of having children with a CA regardless of maternal education and local development, but social characteristics can also have an influence, as regions with higher development had lower prevalence of CA.

Improving birth certificate data accuracy in Alabama

Objective

Accurate vital statistics data are critical for monitoring population health and strategizing public health interventions. Previous analyses of statewide birth data have identified several factors that may reduce birth certificate accuracy including systematic errors and limited data review by clinicians. The aim of this initiative was to increase the proportion of hospitals in Alabama reporting accurate birth certificate data from 67% to 87% within 1 year.

Methods

The Alabama Perinatal Quality Collaborative led this statewide collaborative effort. Process measures included monthly monitoring of 11 variables across 5-10 patient birth certificates per month per hospital. Accuracy determination, defined as ≥95% accuracy of the variables analyzed, was performed by health care specialists at each hospital by comparing birth certificate variables from vital statistics with data obtained from original hospital source materials. Three months of retrospective, baseline accuracy data were collected before project initiation from which actionable drivers and change ideas were identified at individual hospitals. Data were analyzed using statistical process control measures.

Results

Thirty-one hospitals entered data throughout the course of the initiative, accounting for 850 chart analyses and 9350 variable assessments. The least accurately reported variables included birth weight, maternal hypertension, and antenatal corticosteroid exposure. At baseline, 67% of hospitals reported birth certificate accuracy rates ≥ 95%, which increased to 90% of hospitals within 2 months and was sustained for the remainder of the initiative.

Conclusion

Statewide, multidisciplinary quality improvement efforts increased birth certificate accuracy vital to public health surveillance.

Is the Rise in Reported Dementia Mortality Real? Analysis of Multiple-Cause-of-Death Data for Australia and the United States

Official statistics in Australia and the United States show large recent increases in dementia mortality rates. In this study, we assessed whether these trends are biased by an increasing tendency of medical certifiers (predominantly physicians) to report on the death certificate that dementia was a direct cause of death. Regression models of multiple-cause-of-death data in Australia (2006-2016) and the United States (2006-2017) were constructed to adjust dementia mortality rates for changes in death certification practices. Compared with official statistics, the recent increase in adjusted age-standardized dementia death rates was less than half as large in Australia and about two-thirds as large in the United States. Further adjustment for changes in reporting of dementia anywhere on the death certificate implied even lower increases in dementia mortality. Declines in reporting of cardiovascular diseases as comorbid conditions also contributed to rises in dementia mortality rates. The increasing likelihood of dementia's being reported as directly leading to death largely explains recent increases in dementia mortality rates in both countries. However, studies have found that reported dementia on death certificates remains low compared with clinical evaluations of its prevalence. Improved guidance and training for certifiers in reporting of dementia on death certificates will help standardize mortality statistics within and between countries.

Differences in Rates of Low Birth Weight among Prefectures in Japan: An Ecological Study Using Government Statistics Data

The differences in the rates and trends of the overall low birth weight and term low birth weight in recent years are unknown for the Japanese prefectures. In this ecological study, we revealed the rates for each prefecture and investigated the factors affecting the regional differences in these outcomes. Aggregated vital statistics data from 2007 to 2019 were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare in Japan. The association between the outcomes and the variables, including the infants’ birth characteristics, medical characteristics, and socioeconomic characteristics of the prefectures, were analyzed. An analysis of repeated-measures data was conducted using the data from 2013 and 2018 for each prefecture. The trend for the rates of overall low birth weight and term low birth weight over the years differed among the prefectures. Moreover, the proportions of multiple births and lean (body mass index <18.5 kg/m2) and obese (body mass index ≥25.0 kg/m2) women had a statistically significant positive association with both the overall low birth weight rate and the term low birth weight rate among the prefectures. It was suggested that to resolve the difference in these outcomes among the prefectures, being obese or underweight needs to be addressed in mothers.

Corrected and Republished from: Socioeconomic Predictors of Trends in Cancer Mortality Among Municipalities in Japan, 2010-2019

Background:

A study investigating associations between various socioeconomic factors and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) of each type of cancer among municipalities in Japan has not been conducted using the data of the past decade. Herein, we investigated the predictors of a recent trend of municipal SMRs of cancer using the Vital Statistics in Japan and revealed the change in the SMRs depending on the identified predictors.

Methods:

Data on cancer mortality for each municipality in 2010 and 2019 were used. We calculated empirical Bayes SMR (EBSMR) for each municipality by type of cancer and sex and then fitted a multiple linear regression model using possible predictors in 2010 as explanatory variables and the EBSMR in 2019 as the outcome variable. We also classified municipalities into quintiles based on the values of an identified predictor in 2010, and SMRs of each type of cancer in 2010 and 2019 were calculated for each quintile.

Results:

The population was positively associated with EMSMRs of multiple cancer types, whereas educational level was negatively associated with EMSMRs of multiple cancer types. In addition, SMRs of municipalities with the lowest educational level deteriorated from 2010 to 2019 for many cancer types among men and women, and the difference between municipalities with the highest and lowest educational level for the SMR of cancer in all sites widened in 2019 for men. On the other hand, the SMR of municipalities with the highest educational level or the largest population tended to be higher than municipalities with lower counterparts in both 2010 and 2019 for women.

Conclusion:

There was a difference in the trend of the SMRs of multiple types of cancer depending on municipal educational level, whereas municipalities with larger population or educational level continued to have higher SMRs of cancer in all sites for women.

Ensemble learning to predict opioid-related overdose using statewide prescription drug monitoring program and hospital discharge data in the state of Tennessee

Objective

To develop and validate algorithms for predicting 30-day fatal and nonfatal opioid-related overdose using statewide data sources including prescription drug monitoring program data, Hospital Discharge Data System data, and Tennessee (TN) vital records. Current overdose prevention efforts in TN rely on descriptive and retrospective analyses without prognostication.

Materials and Methods

Study data included 3 041 668 TN patients with 71 479 191 controlled substance prescriptions from 2012 to 2017. Statewide data and socioeconomic indicators were used to train, ensemble, and calibrate 10 nonparametric “weak learner” models. Validation was performed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), area under the precision recall curve, risk concentration, and Spiegelhalter z-test statistic.

Results

Within 30 days, 2574 fatal overdoses occurred after 4912 prescriptions (0.0069%) and 8455 nonfatal overdoses occurred after 19 460 prescriptions (0.027%). Discrimination and calibration improved after ensembling (AUROC: 0.79–0.83; Spiegelhalter P value: 0–.12). Risk concentration captured 47–52% of cases in the top quantiles of predicted probabilities.

Discussion

Partitioning and ensembling enabled all study data to be used given computational limits and helped mediate case imbalance. Predicting risk at the prescription level can aggregate risk to the patient, provider, pharmacy, county, and regional levels. Implementing these models into Tennessee Department of Health systems might enable more granular risk quantification. Prospective validation with more recent data is needed.

Conclusion

Predicting opioid-related overdose risk at statewide scales remains difficult and models like these, which required a partnership between an academic institution and state health agency to develop, may complement traditional epidemiological methods of risk identification and inform public health decisions.

Geographical Differences and Their Associated Factors in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Mortality in Japan: An Ecological Study Using Nationwide Data

Geographical differences in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality have not been determined using municipal-specific data in Japan. This study determined the geographical differences in COPD mortality in Japan using municipal-specific data and identified associated factors. Data on COPD mortality from 2013 to 2017 for each municipality were obtained from the Vital Statistics of Japan. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of COPD by an empirical Bayes method for each municipality and located the SMRs on a map of Japan. In addition, an ecological study was conducted to identify factors associated with the SMR using demographic, socioeconomic, and medical characteristics of municipalities by a spatial statistics model. Geographical differences in the SMR were different in men and women, and municipalities with a low SMR tended to be more frequent in women. Spatial regression analysis identified that the total population and taxable income per capita were negatively associated with the SMR in men. In women, population density, the proportion of fatherless households, and the number of clinics per capita were positively associated with the SMR, whereas taxable income per capita was negatively associated with the SMR. There were some differences in regional characteristics associated with COPD mortality by sex.

How has COVID-19 impacted the civil registration and vital statistics system in Loreto, Perú? Evidence using process mapping and qualitative analysis

OBJECTIVES

Accurate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems are the primary data source to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality. This study assesses how the pandemic impacted CRVS system processes in Loreto region of Peru, one of the worst affected countries globally.

DESIGN

Qualitative study.

SETTING

Loreto, a remote region, which had the highest reported mortality rate in Peru during the pandemic.

PARTICIPANTS

Semistructured individual interviews and documentary analysis were conducted between September 2020 and May 2021 with 28 key informants from eight institutions involved in death certification. Key informants were identified using a purposive sampling strategy commencing at the Health Directorate of Loreto, and the snowball method was used where a participant suggested another organisation or person. Information from key informants was used to compare business process maps of the CRVS system before and during the pandemic.

RESULTS

During early May 2020, there were seven times more registered deaths than in earlier years, but key informants believed this underestimated mortality by 20%-30%. During the pandemic, families had to interact with more institutions during the death certification process. Several issues disrupted death certification processes, including the burden of increased deaths, the Environmental Health Directorate often removing a body without the family's express agreement, the creation of COVID-19 cemeteries where no death certificate was needed for burial, greater participation of funeral homes that often used outdated paper forms, and closure of civil registry offices. There was increased use of the online National Death System (SINADEF) but many users had problems with access.

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic substantially disrupted CRVS processes in Loreto, making death certification more difficult, placing greater burden on the family and leading to more participation from unregulated organisations such as funeral homes or cemeteries. These disruptions were impacted by limitations of the CRVS system's processes before the pandemic.

International comparison of trends in cancer mortality: Japan has fallen behind in screening-related cancers

While the age-standardized mortality rate in Japan is decreasing for all cancers as a whole, this is not the case for some major site-specific cancers. We descriptively compared trends in all-cancer and site-specific cancer mortality in Japan and selected countries. Data on age-standardized cancer mortality rates in six countries (Japan, the USA, the UK, Canada, Australia and the Republic of Korea) in 1980-2016 were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. While stomach and liver cancer mortality rates in Japan and Korea were initially much higher than those in non-Asian countries, they have rapidly decreased over the long term. By contrast, colorectal, pancreatic and cervical cancer mortality rates in Japan, which were initially lower than those in other countries, have increased such that they are now similar or higher than the rates in non-Asian countries. For male lung cancer, Japan's initially lower mortality rate is now comparable to that in non-Asian countries as a result of slower decline. Meanwhile, the mortality rate of female breast cancer in Japan and Korea has increased and is nearing the rates observed in non-Asian countries, which by contrast have shown a steady decrease. Thus, while Japan has been successful in reducing the burden of stomach and liver cancers, it is falling behind in reducing the mortality rate of screening-related cancers such as colorectal, female breast and cervical cancers. Control measures for these cancers need to be strengthened.

Causes of death in patients with Down syndrome in 2014-2016: A population study in Japan

Despite the higher mortality rates in patients with Down syndrome compared with the general Japanese population, the life span has dramatically increased in Japan and other countries. We aimed to clarify recent causes of death in patients with Down syndrome in Japan. We calculated proportionate mortality and standardized mortality odds ratios (SMORs) among all deaths registered with Down syndrome as the cause of death (ICD‐10 code, Q90) in the Japanese National Death Registry Database in 2014–2016. In the study period, 762 in patients with Down syndrome died. The main causes of death were pneumonia/respiratory infections (20.5%), congenital malformations of the circulatory system (11.2%), other diseases of the circulatory system (9.2%), and aspiration pneumonia (8.4%). The SMORs (95% confidence intervals) were higher for natural death, defined as death of an elderly person with no other cause of death to be mentioned (55.73 [36.92–84.12]), early‐onset Alzheimer's disease, defined as Alzheimer's disease with onset <65 years of age (29.36 [16.44–52.44]), aspiration pneumonia (18.33 [14.03–23.96]), pneumonia/respiratory infections (8.11 [6.76–9.73]), congenital malformations of the circulatory system (8.07 [5.98–10.88]), and leukemia/lymphoma (2.16 [1.55–2.99]) but lower for malignant solid tumors (0.04 [0.02–0.06]) in patients with Down syndrome. Patients with Down syndrome had the greatest relative risk of dying from natural death, early‐onset Alzheimer's disease, and respiratory illnesses, highlighting the need for appropriate medical, health, and welfare services.

Estimation of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Japan using national census-linked longitudinal mortality data

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop census-linked longitudinal mortality data for Japan and assess its validity as a new resource for estimating socioeconomic inequalities in health.

METHODS

Using deterministic linkage, we identified, from national censuses for 2000 and 2010 and national death records, persons and deceased persons who had unique personal identifiers (generated using sex, birth year/month, address, and marital status). For the period 2010-2015, 1 537 337 Japanese men and women aged 30-79 years (1.9% in national census) were extracted to represent the sample population. This population was weighted to adjust for confounding factors. We estimated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) by education level and occupational class. The slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index inequality (RII) by educational level were calculated as inequality measures.

RESULTS

The reweighted sample population's mortality rates were somewhat higher than those of the complete registry, especially in younger age-groups and for external causes. All-cause ASMRs (per 100 000 person-years) for individuals aged 40-79 years with high, middle, and low education levels were 1078 (95% confidence interval: 1051-1105), 1299 (1279-1320), and 1670 (1634-1707) for men, and 561 (536-587), 601 (589-613), and 777 (745-808) for women, respectively, during 2010-2015. SII and RII by educational level increased among both sexes between 2000-2005 and 2010-2015, which indicates mortality inequalities increased.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed census-linked longitudinal mortality data provide new estimates of socioeconomic inequalities in Japan that can be triangulated with estimates obtained with other methods.

Trends in hepatitis C virus-associated mortality rates in Japan, 1998-2017

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The current prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection and hepatitis C virus-associated mortality in Japan falls short of the World Health Organization goal of viral hepatitis elimination by 2030. We aimed to evaluate the trends in hepatitis C virus-associated mortality in Japan.

METHODS

This nationwide observational study used the Japanese Vital Statistics from 1998 to 2017 and included all Japanese hepatitis C virus-associated deaths (84 936) of adults aged ≥ 40 years. We calculated the crude and age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 persons by age and sex. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changing points in trends and to estimate the annual percentage changes and the average annual percentage changes for the entire study period.

RESULTS

The crude mortality rate per 100 000 persons (annual death number) increased from 5.5 (3548) in 1998 to 7.0 (4843) in 2005 and decreased to 4.0 (3095) in 2017. By 2017, the crude mortality rates per 100 000 persons among men and women had dropped to 3.6 and 4.3, respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate was higher in women than in men. The average annual percentage change was -3.8% (95% confidence interval: -5.0 to -2.5). The declining trend was more rapid in men (-4.5%, 95% confidence interval: -5.3 to -3.6) than in women (-2.7%, 95% confidence interval: -3.8 to -1.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Trends in hepatitis C virus-associated mortality rates have declined in an accelerating manner in Japan, especially among men.

An Association between Maternal Occupations and Low Birth Weight Infants in Japan from 1995 to 2015

Differences in low birth weight rate depending on maternal socioeconomic characteristics have not yet been demonstrated using the Vital Statistics in Japan; therefore, this study aimed to investigate these differences according to maternal occupations. “Report of Vital Statistics: Occupational and Industrial Aspects” and the Vital Statistics in Japan were used every five years from 1995 to 2015. Nine types of occupations were compared. The low birth weight rate was calculated according to maternal occupations and year. Also, the standardized low birth weight ratio was obtained by dividing the number of low-birth-weight infants for each maternal occupation by an expected number of low birth weight infants. The standardized low birth weight ratio for manual workers was the highest among all occupations from 2000 to 2015, and it was significantly higher than one throughout the years. The ratio for clerical workers was also significantly higher than one from 1995 to 2010. Whereas, the ratio for farmers was significantly lower than one in most of the years. It was suggested that health guidance and prenatal care are particularly needed for manual workers, and a study investigating the differences in prenatal characteristics among maternal occupations is necessary for finding a reason for disparity.

Short interpregnancy interval and pregnancy outcomes: How important is the timing of confounding variable ascertainment?

BACKGROUND

Estimation of causal effects of short interpregnancy interval on pregnancy outcomes may be confounded by time-varying factors. These confounders should be ascertained at or before delivery of the first ("index") pregnancy, but are often only measured at the subsequent pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify bias induced by adjusting for time-varying confounders ascertained at the subsequent (rather than the index) pregnancy in estimated effects of short interpregnancy interval on pregnancy outcomes.

METHODS

We analysed linked records for births in British Columbia, Canada, 2004-2014, to women with ≥2 singleton pregnancies (n = 121 151). We used log binomial regression to compare short (<6, 6-11, 12-17 months) to 18-23-month reference intervals for 5 outcomes: perinatal mortality (stillbirth and neonatal death); small for gestational age (SGA) birth and preterm delivery (all, early, spontaneous). We calculated per cent differences between adjusted risk ratios (aRR) from two models with maternal age, low socio-economic status, body mass index, and smoking ascertained in the index pregnancy and the subsequent pregnancy. We considered relative per cent differences <5% minimal, 5%-9% modest, and ≥10% substantial.

RESULTS

Adjustment for confounders measured at the subsequent pregnancy introduced modest bias towards the null for perinatal mortality aRRs for <6-month interpregnancy intervals [-9.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -15.3, -6.2). SGA aRRs were minimally biased towards the null (-1.1%, 95% CI -2.6, 0.8) for <6-month intervals. While early preterm delivery aRRs were substantially biased towards the null (-10.4%, 95% CI -14.0, -6.6) for <6-month interpregnancy intervals, bias was minimal for <6-month intervals for all preterm deliveries (-0.6%, 95% CI -2.0, 0.8) and spontaneous preterm deliveries (-1.3%, 95% CI -3.1, 0.1). For all outcomes, bias was attenuated and minimal for 6-11-month and 12-17-month interpregnancy intervals.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that maternally linked pregnancy data may not be needed for appropriate confounder adjustment when studying the effects of short interpregnancy interval on pregnancy outcomes.

Lessons Learnt and Pathways forward for National Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems after the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on government services in many areas, including Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS). However, the pandemic has also highlighted the importance of recording of mortality and causes of death, with some potentially positive impacts for longer term CRVS strengthening, including: (1) increasing online provision of registration services (2) reporting of mortality statistics from settings which had not previously done so (3) improved intersectoral cooperation, particularly with the health sector, improving the ability to record deaths and (4) increased awareness among governments and public of the importance of mortality statistics. Now, it is pressing for national governments, and international organizations working to strengthen CRVS systems, to evaluate the effectiveness of strategies adopted over the last year, and use lessons learnt to catalyse broader sustainable CRVS improvement strategies, providing governments with essential data on mortality and causes of death into the future.

Synthetic minority oversampling of vital statistics data with generative adversarial networks

Objective

Minority oversampling is a standard approach used for adjusting the ratio between the classes on imbalanced data. However, established methods often provide modest improvements in classification performance when applied to data with extremely imbalanced class distribution and to mixed-type data. This is usual for vital statistics data, in which the outcome incidence dictates the amount of positive observations. In this article, we developed a novel neural network-based oversampling method called actGAN (activation-specific generative adversarial network) that can derive useful synthetic observations in terms of increasing prediction performance in this context.

Materials and Methods

From vital statistics data, the outcome of early stillbirth was chosen to be predicted based on demographics, pregnancy history, and infections. The data contained 363 560 live births and 139 early stillbirths, resulting in class imbalance of 99.96% and 0.04%. The hyperparameters of actGAN and a baseline method SMOTE-NC (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique-Nominal Continuous) were tuned with Bayesian optimization, and both were compared against a cost-sensitive learning-only approach.

Results

While SMOTE-NC provided mixed results, actGAN was able to improve true positive rate at a clinically significant false positive rate and area under the curve from the receiver-operating characteristic curve consistently.

Discussion

Including an activation-specific output layer to a generator network of actGAN enables the addition of information about the underlying data structure, which overperforms the nominal mechanism of SMOTE-NC.

Conclusions

actGAN provides an improvement to the prediction performance for our learning task. Our developed method could be applied to other mixed-type data prediction tasks that are known to be afflicted by class imbalance and limited data availability.

Death registration in Nigeria: a systematic literature review of its performance and challenges

Background

Death registration provides an opportunity for the legal documentation of death of persons. Documentation of deaths has several implications including its use in the recovery of inheritance and insurance benefits. It is also an important input for construction of life tables which are crucial for national planning. However, the registration of deaths is poor in several countries including Nigeria.

Objective

This paper describes the performance of death registration in Nigeria and factors that may affect its performance.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review of death registration completeness in Nigeria to identify, characterize issues as well as challenges associated with realizing completeness in death registration.

Results

Only 13.5% of deaths in Nigeria were registered in 2007 which regressed to 10% in 2017. There was no data reported for Nigeria in the World Health Organization database between 2008 and 2017. The country scored less than 0.1 (out of a maximum of 1) on the Vital Statistics Performance Index. There are multiple institutions with parallel constitutional and legal responsibilities for death registration in Nigeria including the National Population Commission, National Identity Management Commission and Local Government Authorities, which may be contributing to its overall poor performance.

Conclusions

We offer proposals to substantially improve death registration completeness in Nigeria including the streamlining and merger of the National Population Commission and the National Identity Management Commission into one commission, the revision of the legal mandate of the new agency to mainly coordination and establishment of standards. We recommend that Local Government authorities maintain the local registries given their proximity to households. This arrangement will be enhanced by increased utilization of information and communications technology in Civil Registration and Vital Statistics processes that ensure records are properly archived.

Updated Trends in Cancer in Japan: Incidence in 1985-2015 and Mortality in 1958-2018-A Sign of Decrease in Cancer Incidence

Background

Unlike many North American and European countries, Japan has observed a continuous increase in cancer incidence over the last few decades. We examined the most recent trends in population-based cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.

Methods

National cancer mortality data between 1958 and 2018 were obtained from published vital statistics. Cancer incidence data between 1985 and 2015 were obtained from high-quality population-based cancer registries maintained by three prefectures (Yamagata, Fukui, and Nagasaki). Trends in age-standardized rates (ASR) were examined using Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

For males, all-cancer incidence increased between 1985 and 1996 (annual percent change [APC] +1.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7–1.5%), increased again in 2000–2010 (+1.3%; 95% CI, 0.9–1.8%), and then decreased until 2015 (−1.4%; 95% CI, −2.5 to −0.3%). For females, all-cancer incidence increased until 2010 (+0.8%; 95% CI, 0.6–0.9% in 1985–2004 and +2.4%; 95% CI, 1.3–3.4% in 2004–2010), and stabilized thereafter until 2015. The post-2000 increase was mainly attributable to prostate in males and breast in females, which slowed or levelled during the first decade of the 2000s. After a sustained increase, all-cancer mortality for males decreased in 1996–2013 (−1.6%; 95% CI, −1.6 to −1.5%) and accelerated thereafter until 2018 (−2.5%; 95% CI, −2.9 to −2.0%). All-cancer mortality for females decreased intermittently throughout the observation period, with the most recent APC of −1.0% (95% CI, −1.1 to −0.9%) in 2003–2018. The recent decreases in mortality in both sexes, and in incidence in males, were mainly attributable to stomach, liver, and male lung cancers.

Conclusion

The ASR of all-cancer incidence began decreasing significantly in males and levelled off in females in 2010.

Socioeconomic Predictors of Trends in Cancer Mortality among Municipalities in Japan, 2010-2019

Background:

A study investigating associations between various socioeconomic factors and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) of each type of cancer among municipalities in Japan has not been conducted using the data of the past decade. Herein, we investigated the predictors of a recent trend of municipal SMRs of cancer using the Vital Statistics in Japan and revealed the change in the SMRs depending on the identified predictors.

Methods:

Data on cancer mortality for each municipality in 2010 and 2019 were used. We calculated empirical Bayes SMR (EBSMR) for each municipality by type of cancer and sex and then fitted a multiple linear regression model using possible predictors in 2010 as explanatory variables and the EBSMR in 2019 as the outcome variable. We also classified municipalities into quintiles based on the values of an identified predictor in 2010, and SMRs of each type of cancer in 2010 and 2019 were calculated for each quintile.

Results:

The total population was positively associated with EMSMRs of multiple cancer types, whereas educational level was negatively associated with EMSMRs of multiple cancer types. In addition, SMRs of municipalities with the lowest educational level deteriorated from 2010 to 2019 for many cancer types among men and women, and the difference between municipalities with the highest and lowest educational level for the SMR of cancer in all sites widened in 2019 for men. On the other hand, the SMR of municipalities with the highest educational level or the largest total population tended to be higher than municipalities with lower counterparts in both 2010 and 2019 for women.

Conclusion:

There was a difference in the trend of the SMRs of multiple types of cancer depending on municipal educational level, whereas municipalities with larger population or educational level continued to have higher SMRs of cancer in all sites for women.

Trends in premature mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran: probability of dying between ages 30 and 70 years

Background

The burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is a major challenge facing the whole world. Around 15 million premature deaths due to NCDs occur in people aged 30-70 years annually.

Aims

Mortality data based on death registration systems and population data were used to estimate proposed mortality statistics in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Methods

Various criteria and methods were used to assess the quality of mortality data. The probability of dying among those aged 30-70 years for all causes and for NCDs was calculated using the life table method.

Results

The mortality rate in the population aged 30-69 years was 343.12 (per 100 000 persons) in 2006 and decreased to 240.62 in 2016 in both sexes. The probability of dying due to NCDs was 21.36% in 2006 and declined to 14.95% in 2016 for both sexes.

Conclusions

The number of premature deaths due to NCDs have decreased over the last decade. We predict that this reduction will continue and the country will meet the targets of the WHO NCD action plan by 2025 and also the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals for reducing premature deaths by 2030. However, the morbidity and burden of NCDs are still public health concerns in the country. Due to advancements in health care technologies and also the aging population, these concerns will impose greater costs on the health system. Hence, prevention programmes for NCDs should be an urgent priority for Iranian health policy.

Secular trends in longevity among people with Down syndrome in Japan, 1995-2016

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy in Japan has increased dramatically and is one of the longest in the world. However, the changes in lifespan in Japanese individuals with congenital diseases remain unknown. We investigated secular changes in the lifespan of people with Down syndrome over the last 20 years.

METHODS

We observed secular trends in the number of stillbirths, deaths and the mortality rates at ages 20, 40, and 60 among all deaths registered with Down syndrome as the cause of death (ICD10 code: Q90) in the Japan national death registry database between 1995 and 2016. Changes in the median age at death between 1995-2005 and 2006-2016 were investigated based on sex and history of surgery.

RESULTS

We identified 240 stillbirths and 1,099 deaths in this period. The annual number of stillbirths and deaths above the age of 1 year increased, whereas the number of deaths below 1 year did not change. The proportional mortality indicator at ages 20, 40, and 60 increased from 21.7%, 11.7%, and 1.7% in 1995 to 69.9%, 66.7%, and 36.6% in 2016, respectively. The median age at death was higher in females, individuals without a surgical history, and deaths occurring in 2006-2016. The median age at death increased over the period in those without a surgical history.

CONCLUSIONS

The age at death among people with Down syndrome has increased over the last 20 years, with currently 1 in 3 persons living over 60 years, necessitating adequate social welfare services in this aging population.

Decentralization of birth registration to Local Government in Tanzania: the association with completeness of birth registration and certification

BACKGROUND

In Tanzania only an estimated one-quarter of births are registered and certified. Birth registration uses a centralized system with geographic and cost barriers for families. A pilot decentralized birth registration system has been trialled in 11 of 26 regions, substantially increasing registration points, and enabling notification, registration and certification to occur in one step.

OBJECTIVE

This study compares completeness of birth registration and certification and achievement of key birth registration milestones in two districts where the birth registration system decentralized and two districts with the existing centralized system.

METHODS

Registration, notification, census and survey data were used to estimate birth registration completeness and quantify achievement of key registration milestones for births in 2012-16. These were compared between districts of Mbozi (decentralized in 2013) and Iringa (decentralized in 2016) and districts of Dodoma and Kibaha which remained centralized.

RESULTS

For births that occurred from 2012 to 2016, completeness of birth registration/certification (by early 2017) was higher in districts that decentralized (Iringa 60%; Mbozi 52%) than remained centralized (Kibaha 36%; Dodoma 20%). Introduction of the decentralized system saw completeness for births registered within 12 months of occurrence increase in Iringa from 1% in 2014 to 67% in 2016, and in Mbozi from 15% in 2012 to 36% in 2013 before falling and subsequently increasing to 53% in 2016. In contrast, completeness in centralized districts did not increase. Although a higher proportion of births are notified in centralized than decentralized districts, registration and certification occurs for all notified births in decentralized districts but only one-third in centralized districts.

CONCLUSIONS

Benefits of a decentralized system are more proximate registration points and the merging of notification, registration and certification steps. The findings, while demonstrating the immediate impact of the decentralized system on completeness, also show that continued efforts are necessary to sustain these improvements.

Differences in Cancer Mortality Trends between Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Areas in Japan, 1999-2018

Background:

Although socioeconomic statuses affect cancer mortality rates, the specific difference between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas in Japan has not been evaluated. This study analyzed differences in cancer mortality between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas in Japan, using an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.

Methods:

Data on cancer mortality from 1999 to 2018 for metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas in Japan were used. Here metropolitan areas were defined as government ordinance-designated municipalities in 1999 and special wards of Tokyo. In addition to general mortality data for all cancer sites, data on mortality for stomach, colorectal, liver, gallbladder, pancreatic, lung, prostate, and breast cancers were used for analysis. A Bayesian APC analysis was administered to the data for each type of cancer for area and for sex-distinguished data. Additionally, the ratios for estimated mortality rate by periods and cohorts between the two areas were calculated.

Results:

The age-standardized mortality rate for cancer in all sites in non-metropolitan areas was lower than that in metropolitan areas throughout the analyzed years for both men and women, but the mortality difference decreased during the periods for men. The rates of decrease in mortality rate in cohorts differed for some cancers between the two area types, and the mortality rate ratios of metropolitan compared with non-metropolitan areas decreased for cancer in all sites over the analyzed cohorts for men. Also, the rate of decrease in mortality rate over the cohorts was completely different between the areas for stomach cancer in men and for liver cancer for women.

Conclusion:

Mortality rates for cancer in all sites tended to diverge between the two area types in younger cohorts for men, and people in younger cohorts in non-metropolitan areas should take more extensive preventive measures against cancer than their counterparts in metropolitan areas.

Maternal mortality in the United States: research gaps, opportunities, and priorities

Maternal mortality and severe maternal morbidity are urgent issues in the United States. It is important to establish priority areas to address these public health crises. On April 8, 2019, and May 2 to 3, 2019, the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development organized and invited experts with varied perspectives to 2 meetings, a community engagement forum and a scientific workshop, to discuss underlying themes involved in the rising incidence of maternal mortality in the United States. Experts from diverse disciplines reviewed current data, ongoing activities, and identified research gaps focused on data measurement and reporting, obstetrical and health system factors, social determinants and disparities, and the community perspective and engagement. Key scientific opportunities to reduce maternal mortality and severe maternal morbidity include improved data quality and measurement, understanding the populations affected as well as the numerous etiologies, clinical research to confirm preventive and interventional strategies, and engagement of community participation in research that will lead to the reduction of maternal mortality in the United States. This article provides a summary of the workshop presentations and discussions.

Potential pregnancy days lost: an innovative measure of gestational age

In Brazil, the excess of interventions that anticipate childbirth, such as cesarean sections and labor inductions, has resulted in the shortening of pregnancy, with negative consequences on maternal-infant outcomes. This commentary presents a novel way to measure gestational age: the continuous variable "Potential pregnancy days lost." Using data from the Live Birth Information System (SINASC), we counted the missing days between the period until childbirth and the average duration of pregnancy (280 days), or the lost weeks. This measure can be used as an outcome variable (socioeconomic-demographic characteristics of the mother, type of childbirth, financing, etc.) or exposure variable (for neonatal, infant, and maternal outcomes). The indicator can be used in municipal and national cohorts and intervention studies to analyze hospitals and regions. We discuss the limits and scope of gestational age measures and, given their inaccuracies, the importance of studying their trends.

[Recalculation of trends in mortality from accidents, suicides, and homicides in Argentina, 1997-2018Recálculo das tendências de mortalidade por acidentes, suicídios e homicídios na Argentina, 1997-2018]

Objetivo.

Este estudio se propuso describir el impacto del registro deficiente de la causa de muerte en las tendencias de mortalidad por suicidios y homicidios mediante la imputación de información faltante.

Métodos.

Estudio observacional y descriptivo de la tendencia temporal de la mortalidad por causas externas registradas en Argentina en el período 1997-2018. Para la imputación de la intencionalidad, se ajustaron modelos logísticos a partir de variables predictoras provenientes del Informe Estadístico de Defunción. Se utilizaron estadísticas vitales y proyecciones de población como fuentes secundarias.

Resultados.

Medida con los datos originales, la mortalidad por causas externas descendió en homicidios y accidentes. Dichos descensos se hicieron más marcados con la información corregida, ya que la imputación impactó con mayor fuerza al principio del período. La mortalidad por suicidios registró un aumento de 8,0%, que luego de la corrección ascendió a 12,9%.

Conclusiones.

La corrección no modifica de manera sustantiva la tendencia de la mortalidad por causas externas, aunque tiene mayor impacto en la mortalidad por homicidios y suicidios, elevándola.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of the Sex Differences in Cancer Mortality Rates in Japan from 1995 to 2015

BACKGROUND

The current study aimed to analyze the sex differences in cancer mortality rates in Japan via an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.

METHODS

We used data about cancer mortality rates from 1995 to 2015 in Japan based on the Vital Statistics survey. In addition to the data about mortality from all sites of cancer, we specifically used data about stomach, lung, colorectal, and liver cancers. A Bayesian APC analysis was performed to identify changes in mortality rates based on three effects, which were as follows: age, period, and cohort. Then, we finally calculated the mortality rate ratios for each effect between men and women.

RESULTS

The sex differences in age-adjusted mortality rates for all-sites cancer, lung cancer, and liver cancer were decreasing from 1995 to 2015, and the mortality rate ratios in terms of sex decreased from 2.17 in 1995 to 1.93 in 2015. Based on the results of the APC analyses, only minimal changes were observed in the mortality rate ratios for all types of cancer between men and women during the analyzed periods. The cohort effects began to decrease from the early 20th century in all types of cancer in both men and women, and the mortality rate ratios for all types of cancer between men and women began to increase in the cohorts born from 1926 to 1935. For all-sites cancer, the ratio increased from 0.49 (0.44, 0.57) in the cohort born from 1926 to 1930 to 0.81 (0.60, 1.03) in the cohort born from 1971 to 1975.

CONCLUSION

The sex differences in cancer mortality rates were decreasing in the more recent born generations in Japan. If this trend continues, there will be a minimal difference in the morality rates in the following generations.<br />.

Accuracy in Reporting of Kentucky Certified Nurse-Midwives as Attendants in Birth Registration Data

INTRODUCTION

Birth certificate data are used nationally to determine health care policy and health care reimbursement and to demonstrate the legitimacy and value of certified nurse-midwives (CNMs) and certified midwives (CMs) in perinatal and neonatal outcomes. However, the validity of birth certificate data is questionable, in part because of the data collection process. These data are particularly crucial for midwife-attended births because the correct birth attendant is not always accurately identified on the birth certificate. The purpose of this project was to examine the actual number of CNM-reported births compared with those recorded by the Kentucky Office of Vital Statistics and to examine the process used by birth registrars to complete the birth certificate.

METHODS

CNMs attending births in hospitals in Kentucky in 2017 logged their birth statistics. These numbers were compared with the 2017 Kentucky Vital Statistics Birth Certificate data of CNM-attended births. Kentucky birth registrars (50%) who work in facilities where CNMs attend births completed a 32-question survey to describe their process of collecting birth certificate data.

RESULTS

The comparison data revealed that CNM-attended births in Kentucky are underrepresented in the state vital statistics by as much as 19.2%. Birth registrars identified barriers to collecting accurate data including lack of training, multiple sources of data, incomplete prenatal records, and absence of systems to help ensure accuracy.

DISCUSSION

CNMs/CMs should keep personal and practice birth logs and routinely compare these with hospital data kept by the birth registrar. The state office of vital statistics and hospitals should target training to specific facilities that have the most inaccurate data. The Improving Midwifery Birth Numbers Initiative through the American College of Nurse-Midwives Division of Research Data Management Section should continue to encourage midwifery students to complete this research in all 50 states.

The weathering hypothesis and stillbirth: racial disparities across the life span

Objective: Given that studies have consistently demonstrated increased risk of stillbirth with increasing maternal age as well as race-ethnic disparities in stillbirth, the primary research question is how stillbirth risks within and between race-ethnic groups change with age.Design: Using fetal death (stillbirth) and live birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics 2007-2014. We calculated crude stillbirth rates (per 1,000 deliveries). Using multivariable logistic regression, we calculated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for stillbirth across age groups to examine disparities in stillbirth among non-Hispanic blacks (blacks) and non-Hispanic whites (whites).Results: Rates and risks of stillbirth increased as maternal age increased; however, the magnitude of risk varies by race-ethnicity. Compared to women less than 20, black women age 40+ had a risk of almost 3.5 times (aOR = 3.47, 95% CI = 3.24-3.70) whereas among white women age 40+, the risk was more than 2.5 times (aOR = 2.68, 95% CI = 2.55-2.82). The risk of stillbirth among blacks compared to whites increased, peaking at ages 30-34 (aOR = 2.64, 95% CI = 2.56-2.73). At age 35 and beyond, the disparity in risks declined.Conclusion: As age increased, the risk of stillbirth increased for both blacks and whites. Because the disparity in risk between blacks and whites did not continue to increase with age, stillbirth does not seem to reflect the weathering hypothesis as other perinatal outcomes do.

Smoking counts: experience of implementing questions on smoking on official death certification systems

We describe our experience in several settings, following a suggestion in 1983 to add questions on the smoking status of the deceased on the UK death certificate as an effective way to monitor the evolution of the smoking epidemic. In South Africa in 1997 and in Tianjin Municipality, China, in 2010, questions about the smoking habits of the deceased were inserted on the official death certificates. In both places a system now exists to routinely collect information on smoking status in relation to causes of death. Results from two million South African and 300 000 Chinese deceased individuals have been reported, and the sample size in both places continues to grow. An unsuccessful attempt was made in 2008 to insert smoking questions on the Australian death notification forms but comments and concerns from the registrars of births, marriages and deaths have international applicability. In both China and South Africa, inserting questions on smoking on the death notification forms was not a trivial task-in each it required, as a minimum, significant commitment from several government agencies. Benefits, however, include a better local understanding of the smoking epidemic and allowing for planning and monitoring of tobacco control programmes. Documenting the varied experiences of collecting information on smoking on death notification forms is useful to those wishing to introduce such questions in their own settings. This is pertinent especially at a time when vital registration systems are being improved, with an aim to monitoring sustainable development goals.

An assessment of infant mortality rates in Colombia, 1980-2009

PURPOSE

The infant mortality rate is a key indicator of human welfare and development. However, in Colombia, the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística has set the registered rate for 2009 as 13.69 per 1,000 live births, while the estimated rate is 20.13, suggesting the presence of inconsistencies in the data, as in many other transitional economies. Objective: To set the record straight on Colombia's Infant mortality rate reporting since 1980 by using all available data that have recently become public.

METHODS

. The study analyzes 8,636,510 records of live births (1998-2009) and 443,338 records of deaths (1979-2009), and considers information from all available sources: births and death registries, census data, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, and Profamilia surveys. First, following a descriptive analysis, an exponential function is used to estimate the Infant mortality rates in Colombia for 1980-2009 while resolving internal inconsistencies in the data from all sources. The objective is to evaluate the infant mortality rate in Colombia, 1980-2009.

RESULTS

The analysis demonstrates that the registered and the estimated rates for 2009 are incompatible since they follow inconsistent long-term rates of decline in Infant mortality rate. While the registered rate underestimates the real situation, the estimated rate appears to grossly overestimate it. Analyses, based on other sources, put the Infant mortality rate between 15.81 and 17.58 in 2009, with rates of decline between 3.0 and 5.0 percent for the period 1980-2009.

CONCLUSIONS

The study concludes that during the period 1980-2009, the Infant mortality rate for Colombia on average fell from about 54 to about 17, suggesting a long-term annual rate of decline of about 4.0 percent.

Assessment of the quality of cause-of-death data in Greenland, 2006-2015

Background: While the system of registration of mortality and cause of death (COD) in Greenland was established several decades ago, reporting procedures follow a complicated administrative process. Timely and reliable reporting on mortality and COD is of high importance for the usability of the collected data for research, health planning and decision making. Methods: COD data collected by the Chief Medical Office in Greenland from 2006 to 2015 (4490 registered deaths) were analysed with the software Analysis of National Causes of Death for Action (ANACONDA) v4.0. Unusable or insufficiently specified ICD codes are identified. The Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)) is estimated for the overall quality conclusions of the register's usability. Results: Sixty-eight per cent of the input data for Greenland was coded with a usable underlying COD, 24% with an unusable cause and 8% of deaths with an insufficiently specified cause. Almost 700 deaths were coded to an unusable code of 'very high impact'. The most prevalent unusable underlying causes were other ill-defined and unspecified causes, including no death certificate available, followed by senility, heart failure, sepsis and shock and cardiac arrest. The VSPI(Q) score was 66%, representing medium quality. Conclusions: In the 10 years' worth of data analysed, the true underlying COD in many cases was unknown. Several likely explanations for this include lack of systematic COD training for physicians, logistic and capacity challenges in Greenland that potentially could reduce the quality of the collected data and its usability in providing essential information about the true pattern of mortality in Greenland.