Spatiotemporal Epidemiology of Varicella in Chongqing, China, 2014-2018

Cost-Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination for 1-4-Year-Olds in Shanghai, China

INTRODUCTION

Varicella has not yet been included in the National Immunization Program (NIP) in China, and varicella vaccination strategies vary by region. To determine the optimal varicella vaccination strategy in Shanghai, China, the cost-effectiveness and 5-year costs of 5 immunization scenarios were analyzed.

METHODS

A static decision tree-Markov model was developed in 2022 to assess the cost-effectiveness and 5-year costs of voluntary and routine varicella vaccination programs in the 2019 birth cohort in Shanghai from a societal perspective. Parameters were collected in 2022 from the varicella surveillance system, a questionnaire survey of 414 guardians of patients with childhood varicella, and semi-structured interviews with 20 experts on varicella outbreaks from different institutions in Shanghai. The outcomes included varicella cases avoided, quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss, and incremental costs per QALY (ICER). The 5-year costs were compared with local medical expenditures.

RESULTS

Among the 5 scenarios, one dose of routine varicella vaccination was the most cost-saving (USD 70.2) and cost-effective (Dominant) with a 5-year immunization expenditure of USD 9.9 million. Two doses of routine varicella vaccination had the highest QALY (29.9), and its ICER (USD 791.9/QALY) was below the willingness-to-pay threshold (USD 5,203-23,767/QALY). The 5-year immunization expenditure was USD 19.8 million. The effectiveness and price of vaccines, vaccination coverage, and per capita income are the 4 main factors that affect ICERs.

CONCLUSIONS

In Shanghai, the 2 doses of routine varicella vaccination strategy for 1- and 4-year-olds with a 95% coverage rate was found to be the optimal varicella immunization strategy.

Effectiveness of two-dose vs. one-dose varicella vaccine in children in Shanghai, China: a prospective cohort study

Objective

Varicella, a highly contagious viral disease caused by the varicella-zoster virus (VZV), affects millions globally, with a higher prevalence among children. After the initial infection, VZV lies dormant in sensory ganglia and has the potential to reactivate much later, causing herpes zoster (HZ). Vaccination is one of the most effective methods to prevent varicella, and the two-dose varicella vaccine (VarV) regimen is widely used around the world. In China, the VarV has been included in the national immunization programme with a recommended single-dose regimen. This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of the two-dose vs. one-dose VarV regimen in children in Shanghai, China.

Materials and methods

A prospective cohort study was conducted in Shanghai, China, from September 2018 to December 2022. The study enrolled children aged 3-18 years who had received either the one-dose, two-dose, or 0-dose VarV regimen. Vaccination history, varicella infection status, and relevant variables, including demographic information (name, date of birth and sex) and medical history (clinical features of varicella and illness duration) were collected through medical record review and parental interviews.

Results

A total of 3,838 children were included in the study, with 407 in the 0-dose regimen group, 2,107 in the one-dose regimen group and 1,324 in the two-dose regimen group. The corresponding incidence density in these groups was 0.13, 0.05 and 0.03 cases per 1,000 person-days, respectively. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 81.7% (95%CI: 59.3-91.8%) for the two-dose regimen and 60.3% (95%CI: 29.3-77.7%) for the one-dose regimen, compared to the 0-dose regimen. The two-dose VarV regimen showed a protective effectiveness of 47.6% (95%CI: 2.5-71.9%) compared to the one-dose VarV regimen.

Conclusion

This study provides evidence supporting the greater effectiveness of the two-dose VarV regimen in preventing varicella infection compared to the one-dose regimen.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on Incidence of Varicella Under Age 35 - China, 2005-2021

What is already known about this topic?

Varicella is an acute respiratory infectious disease primarily affecting children. However, recent studies have indicated an increasing susceptibility to varicella among older age groups.

What is added by this report?

The findings demonstrate a significant rise in the incidence rate among individuals aged 15-19. Males under 20 years old were found to have a higher risk compared to females, whereas males had a lower risk compared to females aged 20-35 years.

What are the implications for public health practice?

This study is the first comparative analysis using varicella data reported between 2005 and 2021 to examine the contributions of age, period, and birth cohort to varicella incidence in China. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in China and identify high-risk groups. The results of this study will contribute valuable information for the development of varicella prevention policies.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a mild, self-limited disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection. Recently, the disease burden of varicella has been gradually increasing in China; however, the epidemiological characteristics of varicella have not been reported for Anhui Province.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021, which can provide a basis for the future study and formulation of varicella prevention and control policies in the province.

METHODS

Surveillance data were used to characterize the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021 in terms of population, time, and space. Spatial autocorrelation of varicella was explored using the Moran index (Moran I). The Kulldorff space-time scan statistic was used to analyze the spatiotemporal aggregation of varicella.

RESULTS

A total of 276,115 cases of varicella were reported from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui, with an average annual incidence of 44.8 per 100,000, and the highest incidence was 81.2 per 100,000 in 2019. The male-to-female ratio of cases was approximately 1.26, which has been gradually decreasing in recent years. The population aged 5-14 years comprised the high-incidence group, although the incidence in the population 30 years and older has gradually increased. Students accounted for the majority of cases, and the proportion of cases in both home-reared children (aged 0-7 years who are not sent to nurseries, daycare centers, or school) and kindergarten children (aged 3-6 years) has changed slightly in recent years. There were two peaks of varicella incidence annually, except for 2020, and the incidence was typically higher in the winter peak than in summer. The incidence of varicella in southern Anhui was higher than that in northern Anhui. The average annual incidence at the county level ranged from 6.61 to 152.14 per 100,000, and the varicella epidemics in 2018-2021 were relatively severe. The spatial and temporal distribution of varicella in Anhui was not random, with a positive spatial autocorrelation found at the county level (Moran I=0.412). There were 11 districts or counties with high-high clusters, mainly distributed in the south of Anhui, and 3 districts or counties with high-low or low-high clusters. Space-time scan analysis identified five possible clusters of areas, and the most likely cluster was distributed in the southeastern region of Anhui.

CONCLUSIONS

This study comprehensively describes the epidemiology and changing trend of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021. In the future, preventive and control measures should be strengthened for the key populations and regions of varicella.

Spatiotemporal distribution of varicella in the Republic of Korea

Varicella is a highly contagious disease caused by the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Given its tendency to cluster geographically, spatial analyses may provide a better understanding of the pattern of varicella transmission. We investigated the spatial characteristics of varicella in Korea and the risk factors for varicella at a national level. Using national surveillance and demographic data, we examined the spatial distribution of incidence rates and their spatial autocorrelation and calculated Moran's index. Spatial regression analysis was used to identify sociodemographic predictors of varicella incidence at the district level. An increasing tendency in the annual incidence of varicella was observed over a 12-year period (2006-2018), with a surge in 2017. There was a clear positive spatial autocorrelation of the varicella incidence rate during the surveillance period. During 2006-2014, High-High (HH) clusters were mostly confined to the northeast region and neighboring districts. The spatial error model showed that population density had a negative coefficient and childhood percentage, percentage of children under 12 years of age among the total population, had positive coefficient, whereas vaccine coverage was insignificant. The varicella incidence according to geographic region varied with population density, childhood percentage, suggesting the importance of community-level surveillance and monitoring strategies.

Epidemiology of varicella and effectiveness of varicella vaccine in Hangzhou, China, 2019

Background: The varicella vaccine (VarV) is not included in the national childhood immunization schedules in China, although 2-dose VarV (VarV2) were recommended for children at 1 and 4 years of age in Hangzhou since 2014. However, the reported incremental vaccine effectiveness (VE) of VarV2 varies widely among studies. We described the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Hangzhou, assessed the VE of VarV, so as to provide scientific evidence on optimization and adjustment of immunization strategies for varicella prevention in China. Methods: All varicella cases diagnosed in a hospital in Hangzhou are reported to China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The demographic information of reported varicella cases onset from January 1 to December 31, 2019 was extracted from CISDCP on Jan 31, 2020. The demographic information was obtained from the information system of the National Center for Disease Prevention and Control. We conducted a 1:1 matched case-control study to assess the effectiveness of VarV. Participant data were collected with standardized questionnaires. VarV vaccination status was checked by using Hangzhou Immunization Information System (HZIIS). Results: A total of 11,813 varicella cases were reported in Hangzhou, China, 2019, without any death. Annual estimated incidence of varicella was 120 cases per 100,000 populations in 2019. The overall estimated incidence rate of varicella was high, especially for persons aged 10-19 years old and in suburb areas. The seasonal pattern was apparent, mostly due to the cases among students and children in kindergarten. In total, 218 varicella cases and 218 matched controls were included for evaluating the VE of VarV. VarV vaccination produced a high level of protection against varicella, while VE of VarV2 was even better. VE of VarV1 was 91.0% (95%CI: 81.6%-95.8%), and VE was 98.0% (95.5%-99.2%) for VarV2. Conclusion: Continuous monitoring and management of varicella cases is necessary, especially in those endemic areas, high-risk populations, and peak periods; a 2-dose VarV strategy is highly recommended, and relevant health institutions should consider the inclusion of VarV in the national immunization program to better control varicella epidemic and reduce the burden of varicella.