Predicting Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Dangassa, Mali: A Novel Approach Using Functional Generalized Additive Models

Prognostics of multiple malaria episodes and nutritional status in children aged 6 to 59 months from 2013 to 2017 in Dangassa, Koulikoro region, Mali

BACKGROUND

In Africa, the relationship between childhood nutritional status and malaria remains complex and difficult to interpret. Understanding it is important in the improvement of malaria control strategies. This study aimed to assess the influence of nutritional status on the occurrence of multiple malaria episodes in children aged 6 to 59 months between 2013 and 2017 living in the village of Dangassa, Mali.

METHODS

A community-based longitudinal study was conducted using cross-sectional surveys (CSSs) at the beginning (June) and end (November) of the malaria transmission season associated with passive case detection (PCD) at the Dangassa Community Health Centre. Children with asymptomatic malaria infection during cross-sectional surveys were selected and their malaria episodes followed by PCD. Malaria indicators in person-months were estimated using an ordinal-logistic model repeated on subjects during follow-up periods.

RESULTS

The incidence rate (IR) during the period of high transmission (June to October), for 1 episode and for 2 + episodes peaked in 2013 with 65 children (IR = 95.73 per 1000 person-months) and 24 cases (IR = 35.35 per 1000 person-months), respectively. As expected, the risk of multiple episodes occurring during the period of high transmission was 3.23 compared to the period of low transmission after adjusting for other model parameters (95% CI [2.45-4.26], p = 0.000). Children with anaemia were at high risk of having multiple episodes (OR = 1.6, 95% CI [1.12-2.30], p = 0.011). However, the risk of having 2 + episodes for anemic children was higher during the period of low transmission (RR = 1.67, 95% CI [1.15-2.42], p = 0.007) compared to the period of high transmission (RR = 1.58, 95% CI [1.09-2.29], p = 0.016). The trend indicated that anemic and underweight children were significantly associated with multiple malaria episodes during the period of low transmission (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Results show that multiple episodes of malaria are significantly related to the nutritional status (anaemia and underweight) of the child during the two transmission seasons and more pronounced during the dry season (period of low transmission). Further research including other malnutrition parameters will be needed to confirm these findings.

The synergistic effect of climatic factors on malaria transmission: a predictive approach for northeastern states of India

The northeast region of India is highlighted as the most vulnerable region for malaria. This study attempts to explore the epidemiological profile and quantify the climate-induced influence on malaria cases in the context of tropical states, taking Meghalaya and Tripura as study areas. Monthly malaria cases and meteorological data from 2011 to 2018 and 2013 to 2019 were collected from the states of Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively. The nonlinear associations between individual and synergistic effect of meteorological factors and malaria cases were assessed, and climate-based malaria prediction models were developed using the generalized additive model (GAM) with Gaussian distribution. During the study period, a total of 216,943 and 125,926 cases were recorded in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively, and majority of the cases occurred due to the infection of Plasmodium falciparum in both the states. The temperature and relative humidity in Meghalaya and temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and soil moisture in Tripura showed a significant nonlinear effect on malaria; moreover, the synergistic effects of temperature and relative humidity (SI=2.37, RERI=0.58, AP=0.29) and temperature and rainfall (SI=6.09, RERI=2.25, AP=0.61) were found to be the key determinants of malaria transmission in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively. The developed climate-based malaria prediction models are able to predict the malaria cases accurately in both Meghalaya (RMSE: 0.0889; R²: 0.944) and Tripura (RMSE: 0.0451; R²: 0.884). The study found that not only the individual climatic factors can significantly increase the risk of malaria transmission but also the synergistic effects of climatic factors can drive the malaria transmission multifold. This reminds the policymakers to pay attention to the control of malaria in situations with high temperature and relative humidity and high temperature and rainfall in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively.

Projecting Malaria Incidence Based on Climate Change Modeling Approach: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: Climate change will affect the transmission of malaria by shifting the geographical space of the vector. AIM: The review aims to examine the climate change modeling approach and climatic variables used for malaria projection. METHODS: Articles were systematically searched from four databases, Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and SAGE. The PICO concept was used for formulation search and PRISMA approach to identify the final articles. RESULTS: A total of 27 articles were retrieved and reviewed. There were six climate factors identified in this review: Temperature, rainfall/precipitation, humidity, wind, solar radiation, and climate change scenarios. Modeling approaches used to project future malarial trend includes mathematical and computational approach. CONCLUSION: This review provides robust evidence of an association between the impact of climate change and malaria incidence. Prediction on seasonal patterns would be useful for malaria surveillance in public health prevention and mitigation strategies.

The West Africa ICEMR Partnerships for Guiding Policy to Improve the Malaria Prevention and Control

The Mali National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) recently established a phased set of goals for eliminating malaria in Mali by 2030. Over the past decade, the scale-up of NMCP-led malaria control interventions has led to considerable progress, as evidenced by multiple malariometric indicators. The West Africa International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research (WA-ICEMR) is a multidisciplinary research program that works closely with the NMCP and its partners to address critical research needs for malaria control. This coordinated effort includes assessing the effectiveness of control interventions based on key malaria research topics, including immune status, parasite genetic diversity, insecticide and drug resistance, diagnostic accuracy, malaria vector populations and biting behaviors, and vectorial capacity. Several signature accomplishments of the WA-ICEMR include identifying changing malaria age demographic profiles, testing innovative approaches to improve control strategies, and providing regular reporting on drug and insecticide resistance status. The NMCP and WA-ICEMR partnership between the WA-ICEMR and the NMCP offers a comprehensive research platform that informs the design and implementation of malaria prevention and control research programs. These efforts build local expertise and capacity for the next generation of malaria researchers and guide local policy, which is crucial in sustaining efforts toward eliminating malaria in West Africa.

A Decade of Progress Accelerating Malaria Control in Mali: Evidence from the West Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research

This article highlights over a decade of signature achievements by the West Africa International Centers for Excellence in Malaria Research (WA-ICEMR) and its partners toward guiding malaria prevention and control strategies. Since 2010, the WA-ICEMR has performed longitudinal studies to monitor and assess malaria control interventions with respect to space-time patterns, vector transmission indicators, and drug resistance markers. These activities were facilitated and supported by the Mali National Malaria Control Program. Research activities included large-scale active and passive surveillance and expanded coverage of universal long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). The findings revealed substantial declines in malaria occurrence after the scale-up of control interventions in WA-ICEMR study sites. WA-ICEMR studies showed that SMC using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine was highly effective in preventing malaria among children under 5 years of age. An alternative SMC regimen (dihydroartemisinin plus piperaquine) was shown to be potentially more effective and provided advantages for acceptability and compliance over the standard SMC regimen. Other findings discussed in this article include higher observed multiplicity of infection rates for malaria in historically high-endemic areas, continued antimalarial drug sensitivity to Plasmodium falciparum, high outdoor malaria transmission rates, and increased insecticide resistance over the past decade. The progress achieved by the WA-ICEMR and its partners highlights the critical need for maintaining current malaria control interventions while developing novel strategies to disrupt malaria transmission. Enhanced evaluation of these strategies through research partnerships is particularly needed in the wake of reported artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia and East Africa.

Collaboration between meteorology and public health: Predicting the dengue epidemic in Guangzhou, China, by meteorological parameters

Background

Dengue has become an increasing public health threat around the world, and climate conditions have been identified as important factors affecting the transmission of dengue, so this study was aimed to establish a prediction model of dengue epidemic by meteorological methods.

Methods

The dengue case information and meteorological data were collected from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control and Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, respectively. We used spatio-temporal analysis to characterize dengue epidemics. Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between lagged meteorological factors and dengue fever cases and determine the maximum lagged correlation coefficient of different meteorological factors. Then, Generalized Additive Models were used to analyze the non-linear influence of lagged meteorological factors on local dengue cases and to predict the number of local dengue cases under different weather conditions.

Results

We described the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of dengue fever cases and found that sporadic single or a small number of imported cases had a very slight influence on the dengue epidemic around. We further created a forecast model based on the comprehensive consideration of influence of lagged 42-day meteorological factors on local dengue cases, and the results showed that the forecast model has a forecast effect of 98.8%, which was verified by the actual incidence of dengue from 2005 to 2016 in Guangzhou.

Conclusion

A forecast model for dengue epidemic was established with good forecast effects and may have a potential application in global dengue endemic areas after modification according to local meteorological conditions. High attention should be paid on sites with concentrated patients for the control of a dengue epidemic.

Trends in malaria epidemiological factors following the implementation of current control strategies in Dangassa, Mali

BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, three strategies have reduced severe malaria cases and deaths in endemic regions of Africa, Asia and the Americas, specifically: (1) artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT); (2) insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs); and, (3) intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in pregnancy (IPTp). The rationale for this study was to examine communities in Dangassa, Mali where, in 2015, two additional control strategies were implemented: ITN universal coverage and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) among children under 5 years old.

METHODS

This was a prospective study based on a rolling longitudinal cohort of 1401 subjects participating in bi-annual smear surveys for the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection and continuous surveillance for the incidence of human disease (uncomplicated malaria), performed in the years from 2012 to 2020. Entomological collections were performed to examine the intensity of transmission based on pyrethroid spray catches, human landing catches and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing for circumsporozoite antigen.

RESULTS

A total of 1401 participants of all ages were enrolled in the study in 2012 after random sampling of households from the community census list. Prevalence of infection was extremely high in Dangassa, varying from 9.5 to 62.8% at the start of the rainy season and from 15.1 to 66.7% at the end of the rainy season. Likewise, the number of vectors per house, biting rates, sporozoites rates, and entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) were substantially greater in Dangassa.

DISCUSSION

The findings for this study are consistent with the progressive implementation of effective malaria control strategies in Dangassa. At baseline (2012-2014), prevalence of P. falciparum was above 60% followed by a significant year-to-year decease starting in 2015. Incidence of uncomplicated infection was greater among children  < 5 years old, while asymptomatic infection was more frequent among the 5-14 years old. A significant decrease in EIR was also observed from 2015 to 2020. Likewise, vector density, sporozoite rates, and EIRs decreased substantially during the study period.

CONCLUSION

Efficient implementation of two main malaria prevention strategies in Dangassa substantially contribute to a reduction of both asymptomatic and symptomatic malaria from 2015 to 2020.