Malaria Transmission and Spillover across the Peru-Ecuador Border: A Spatiotemporal Analysis

Factors associated with contracting border malaria: A systematic and meta-analysis

Vector resistance, human population movement, and cross-border malaria continue to pose a threat to the attainment of malaria elimination goals. Border malaria is prominent in border regions characterised by poor access to health services, remoteness, and vector abundance. Human socio-economic behaviour, vectoral behaviour, access and use of protective methods, age, sex, and occupation have been identified in non-border regions as key predictors for malaria. We conducted a systematic and meta-analysis review to characterise and establish pooled effect sizes of the factors associated with the occurrence of border malaria. An exhaustive search was done in EBSCOHost (Medline Full Text), Health Source, Google Scholar, Regional Office for Africa Library, African Index Medicus, and PubMed databases. A total of 847 articles were identified from the search and after screening for quality and eligibility, twelve (12) articles were included in the review. Pooled odds ratios, inverse variance statistic (I2), Luis Furuya-Kanamori (LFK) index, and forest plot were computed. Findings from this study suggest night outdoor activities (POR 2.87 95% CI, 1.17 7,01), engaging in forestry activities (POR 2.76 95% CI, 2.08 3.67), working in mines (POR 197 95% CI, 175 22171), access to poor housing structure (POR 3.42 95% CI, 2.14 5.46), and cross-border movement (POR 50.86 95% CI, 12.88 200.85) none use of insecticide-treated nets (POR 5.09 95% CI, 2.44 10.63) were all significantly associated with contracting malaria within border regions. The use of insecticide-treated nets (ITN) (POR 0.61 95% CI, 0.50 0.76) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) (POR 0.61 95% CI, 0.47 0.79) were protective. Risk factors for border malaria are comparable to non-border malaria. Effective border malaria control requires an integrated and targeted approach that addresses socio-economic, environmental, and behavioural drivers. Established vector control interventions remain protective and should be sustained to mitigate the border malaria burden effectively. Novel strategies should be developed to address the unique challenge of cross-border human population movement underpinned by robust regional, bilateral, and multi-sectoral collaborative initiatives.

Malaria, relationship with climatic variables and deforestation in Colombia, Latin America and the Caribbean from 2000 to 2020: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

This systematic review investigates the relationship between malaria incidence, climate variables, and deforestation in Colombia, Latin America, and the Caribbean from 2000 to 2020. Malaria, a significant public health issue in these regions, is influenced by ecological factors including climatic conditions and environmental changes, such as deforestation.

METHODS

The review employs a comprehensive search strategy across PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane, and Scielo databases. It applies strict inclusion and exclusion criteria to ensure the relevance and quality of selected studies, focusing on analysing the relationship between climate variables, deforestation, and malaria incidence.

RESULTS

Twenty-four articles were included in this review, fourteen of which assessed the relationship between climatic variables and malaria and ten between deforestation and malaria. The analysis reveals a nuanced understanding of malaria dynamics. A significant finding is the seasonal effect of climatic variables on malaria incidence. The study notes that increased rainfall is positively correlated with malaria incidence. Similarly, warmer temperatures are associated with increased malaria risks, and malaria rates can change by 10% to 80% for every degree of temperature increase, after adjusting for altitude. The impact of deforestation on malaria is complex, with positive and negative correlations observed, depending on the remaining forest cover.

CONCLUSIONS

The review highlights the multifaceted nature of malaria transmission, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches that consider both environmental and health perspectives. It underscores the importance of understanding the complex relationships between malaria incidence, climate variables, and deforestation.

Plasmodium vivax genomic surveillance in the Peruvian Amazon with Pv AmpliSeq assay

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium vivax is the most predominant malaria species in Latin America, constituting 71.5% of malaria cases in 2021. With several countries aiming for malaria elimination, it is crucial to prioritize effectiveness of national control programs by optimizing the utilization of available resources and strategically implementing necessary changes. To support this, there is a need for innovative approaches such as genomic surveillance tools that can investigate changes in transmission intensity, imported cases and sources of reintroduction, and can detect molecular markers associated with drug resistance.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Here, we apply a modified highly-multiplexed deep sequencing assay: Pv AmpliSeq v2 Peru. The tool targets a newly developed 41-SNP Peru barcode for parasite population analysis within Peru, the 33-SNP vivaxGEN-geo panel for country-level classification, and 11 putative drug resistance genes. It was applied to 230 samples from the Peruvian Amazon (2007-2020), generating baseline surveillance data. We observed a heterogenous P. vivax population with high diversity and gene flow in peri-urban areas of Maynas province (Loreto region) with a temporal drift using all SNPs detected by the assay (nSNP = 2909). In comparison, in an indigenous isolated area, the parasite population was genetically differentiated (FST = 0.07-0.09) with moderate diversity and high relatedness between isolates in the community. In a remote border community, a clonal P. vivax cluster was identified, with distinct haplotypes in drug resistant genes and ama1, more similar to Brazilian isolates, likely representing an introduction of P. vivax from Brazil at that time. To test its applicability for Latin America, we evaluated the SNP Peru barcode in P. vivax genomes from the region and demonstrated the capacity to capture local population clustering at within-country level.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Together this data shows that P. vivax transmission is heterogeneous in different settings within the Peruvian Amazon. Genetic analysis is a key component for regional malaria control, offering valuable insights that should be incorporated into routine surveillance.

Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador's Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on Plasmodium vivax (null) and Plasmodium falciparum (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.

Study protocol: improving response to malaria in the Amazon through identification of inter-community networks and human mobility in border regions of Ecuador, Peru and Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Understanding human mobility's role in malaria transmission is critical to successful control and elimination. However, common approaches to measuring mobility are ill-equipped for remote regions such as the Amazon. This study develops a network survey to quantify the effect of community connectivity and mobility on malaria transmission.

METHODS

We measure community connectivity across the study area using a respondent driven sampling design among key informants who are at least 18 years of age. 45 initial communities will be selected: 10 in Brazil, 10 in Ecuador and 25 in Peru. Participants will be recruited in each initial node and administered a survey to obtain data on each community's mobility patterns. Survey responses will be ranked and the 2-3 most connected communities will then be selected and surveyed. This process will be repeated for a third round of data collection. Community network matrices will be linked with each country's malaria surveillance system to test the effects of mobility on disease risk.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study protocol has been approved by the institutional review boards of Duke University (USA), Universidad San Francisco de Quito (Ecuador), Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Peru) and Universidade Federal Minas Gerais (Brazil). Results will be disseminated in communities by the end of the study.

Network Profile: Improving Response to Malaria in the Amazon through Identification of Inter-Community Networks and Human Mobility in Border Regions of Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil

Objectives

Understanding human mobility's role on malaria transmission is critical to successful control and elimination. However, common approaches to measuring mobility are ill-equipped for remote regions such as the Amazon. This study develops a network survey to quantify the effect of community connectivity and mobility on malaria transmission.

Design

A community-level network survey.

Setting

We collect data on community connectivity along three river systems in the Amazon basin: the Pastaza river corridor spanning the Ecuador-Peru border; and the Amazon and Javari river corridors spanning the Brazil-Peru border.

Participants

We interviewed key informants in Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru, including from indigenous communities: Shuar, Achuar, Shiwiar, Kichwa, Ticuna, and Yagua. Key informants are at least 18 years of age and are considered community leaders.

Primary outcome

Weekly, community-level malaria incidence during the study period.

Methods

We measure community connectivity across the study area using a respondent driven sampling design. Forty-five communities were initially selected: 10 in Brazil, 10 in Ecuador, and 25 in Peru. Participants were recruited in each initial node and administered a survey to obtain data on each community's mobility patterns. Survey responses were ranked and the 2-3 most connected communities were then selected and surveyed. This process was repeated for a third round of data collection. Community network matrices will be linked with eadch country's malaria surveillance system to test the effects of mobility on disease risk.

Findings

To date, 586 key informants were surveyed from 126 communities along the Pastaza river corridor. Data collection along the Amazon and Javari river corridors is ongoing. Initial results indicate that network sampling is a superior method to delineate migration flows between communities.

Conclusions

Our study provides measures of mobility and connectivity in rural settings where traditional approaches are insufficient, and will allow us to understand mobility's effect on malaria transmission.

Exploring the impact of Ecuador's policies on the right to health of Venezuelan migrants during the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review

Venezuela's ongoing economic and political crisis has forced >6 million people to emigrate from the country since 2014. In the Andean region, Ecuador is one of the main host countries for Venezuelan migrants and refugees. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, specific measures were implemented in the country to control the spread of the disease and its associated impacts. In this context, we conducted a scoping review to understand how policies implemented by the Ecuadorian government during the pandemic impacted Venezuelan migrants' right to health. The literature search focused on scientific and grey publications between 2018 and 2022 in electronic databases and institutional websites, complemented by snowball sampling and expert advice. Our thematic analysis revealed discrepancies between the rights granted to migrants in Ecuador's legal framework and their practical implementation during the pandemic, with several instances of policy and programmatic infringement. The disruption of services further complicated migrant's options for regularization. Some measures, like border closures, negatively impacted migrants' health, including increased exposure to abuse and violence. While migrants were included in the country's COVID-19 vaccination plan, they were excluded from other national aid programmes. There are indications of an increase in xenophobia and discrimination stigmatizing migrants as 'disease carriers' and 'resource takers', resulting in a prioritization of services for the Ecuadorian population. We found limited research on the emergent topic of migrants' vulnerability and related health system challenges. Future research should include working in border zones, consider socioeconomic factors and further explore the poor implementation of Ecuador's legal framework towards upholding migrants' right to health.

Genetic basis and spatial distribution of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in ecuadorian ethnic groups: a malaria perspective

BACKGROUND

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) is an X-linked disorder affecting over 400 million people worldwide. Individuals with molecular variants associated with reduced enzymatic activity are susceptible to oxidative stress in red blood cells, thereby increasing the risk of pathophysiological conditions and toxicity to anti-malarial treatments. Globally, the prevalence of G6PDd varies among populations. Accordingly, this study aims to characterize G6PDd distribution within the Ecuadorian population and to describe the spatial distribution of reported malaria cases.

METHODS

Molecular variants associated with G6PDd were genotyped in 581 individuals from Afro-Ecuadorian, Indigenous, Mestizo, and Montubio ethnic groups. Additionally, spatial analysis was conducted to identify significant malaria clusters with high incidence rates across Ecuador, using data collected from 2010 to 2021.

RESULTS

The A- c.202G > A and A- c.968T > C variants underpin the genetic basis of G6PDd in the studied population. The overall prevalence of G6PDd was 4.6% in the entire population. However, this frequency increased to 19.2% among Afro-Ecuadorian people. Spatial analysis revealed 12 malaria clusters, primarily located in the north of the country and its Amazon region, with relative risks of infection of 2.02 to 87.88.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study hold significant implications for public health interventions, treatment strategies, and targeted efforts to mitigate the burden of malaria in Ecuador. The high prevalence of G6PDd among Afro-Ecuadorian groups in the northern endemic areas necessitates the development of comprehensive malaria eradication strategies tailored to this geographical region.

The impact of sustained malaria control in the Loreto region of Peru: a retrospective, observational, spatially-varying interrupted time series analysis of the PAMAFRO program

Background

Although malaria control investments worldwide have resulted in dramatic declines in transmission since 2000, progress has stalled. In the Amazon, malaria resurgence has followed withdrawal of Global Fund support of the Project for Malaria Control in Andean Border Areas (PAMAFRO). We estimate intervention-specific and spatially-explicit effects of the PAMAFRO program on malaria incidence across the Loreto region of Peru, and consider the influence of the environmental risk factors in the presence of interventions.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective, observational, spatial interrupted time series analysis of malaria incidence rates among people reporting to health posts across Loreto, Peru between the first epidemiological week of January 2001 and the last epidemiological week of December 2016. Model inference is at the smallest administrative unit (district), where the weekly number of diagnosed cases of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum were determined by microscopy. Census data provided population at risk. We include as covariates weekly estimates of minimum temperature and cumulative precipitation in each district, as well as spatially- and temporally-lagged malaria incidence rates. Environmental data were derived from a hydrometeorological model designed for the Amazon. We used Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling techniques to estimate the impact of the PAMAFRO program, variability in environmental effects, and the role of climate anomalies on transmission after PAMAFRO withdrawal.

Findings

During the PAMAFRO program, incidence of P. vivax declined from 42.8 to 10.1 cases/1000 people/year. Incidence for P. falciparum declined from 14.3 to 2.5 cases/1000 people/year over this same period. The effects of PAMAFRO-supported interventions varied both by geography and species of malaria. Interventions were only effective in districts where interventions were also deployed in surrounding districts. Further, interventions diminished the effects of other prevailing demographic and environmental risk factors. Withdrawal of the program led to a resurgence in transmission. Increasing minimum temperatures and variability and intensity of rainfall events from 2011 onward and accompanying population displacements contributed to this resurgence.

Interpretation

Malaria control programs must consider the climate and environmental scope of interventions to maximize effectiveness. They must also ensure financial sustainability to maintain local progress and commitment to malaria prevention and elimination efforts, as well as to offset the effects of environmental change that increase transmission risk.

Funding

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Institutes of Health, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The public health response to an outbreak of border-spill malaria along China-Myanmar border

INTRODUCTION

Malaria importation can be caused by cross-border movement either of both people and anopheline mosquitoes. However, there still lacks robust evidence of imported malaria caused by Plasmodium spp. infected anopheles along international border areas (border-spill malaria). The objectives of this study were to confirm whether an outbreak of Plasmodium vivax malaria is border-spill malaria and assess the effects of China's public health response along China-Myanmar border.

METHODS

Epidemiological, parasitological and entomological investigations were conducted to investigate the outbreak of border-spill malaria. Meanwhile, comprehensive interventions were carried out to prevent further transmission and reintroduction of malaria.

RESULTS

Rapid diagnostic testing, microscopy and polymerase chain reaction were performed and the infections were confirmed as P. vivax. A total of 22 (9.21%) of 239 workers contracted P. vivax during the outbreak. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the distance of worker shelters in China within 300 meters to the internally displaced person (IDP) camps in Myanmar was a risk factors associated with malaria infection (adjusted odds ratio 7.5920; 95% confidence interval, 2.6079-22.1013; P = 0.0002). After comprehensive interventions, malaria transmission was successfully interpreted and prevented at the project site till the completion of project on 14 January 2020, and recurrence of P. vivax malaria was not detected by the end of 2020.

CONCLUSION

This study provided robust evidence of border-spill malaria along China-Myanmar border. Malaria parasite reservoir and distance travelled by female anopheline mosquitoes are two determinants for border-spill malaria. The public health response to the outbreak indicates that the malaria surveillance and response system works well in preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, prevention of border-spill malaria is still a major challenge in the Yunnan border area, China.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices about malaria in travelers to risk areas in Peru

BACKGROUND

Travelers from international airports who travel to endemic countries know the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) about malaria; however, it is still unknown to interprovincial travelers who go to the endemic regions of Peru. The objective is to determine the level of KAP about malaria among Peruvian travelers to risk areas.

METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

This are an analytical cross-sectional study of 277 passengers from a bus station in a low-risk area of malaria in Peru, whose destination was an intermediate/high-risk area during February-March 2018. Absolute and relative frequencies of personal variables associated with the trip and KAP were estimated.

RESULTS

Less than 50% know the main symptoms of malaria and at what time of day there is a greater risk of becoming infected. Five out of ten people knew which practices were preventive against contagion, and four out of ten answered that the treatment can be given in a health establishment, pharmacy, or by some healer.

CONCLUSIONS

Travelers to malaria endemic areas have a low level of knowledge and practice (39.7%) as well as an inadequate preventive attitude (35.4%) against malaria.

Advancing climate change health adaptation through implementation science

To date, there are few examples of implementation science studies that help guide climate-related health adaptation. Implementation science is the study of methods to promote the adoption and integration of evidence-based tools, interventions, and policies into practice to improve population health. These studies can provide the needed empirical evidence to prioritise and inform implementation of health adaptation efforts. This Personal View discusses five case studies that deployed disease early warning systems around the world. These cases studies illustrate challenges to deploying early warning systems and guide recommendations for implementation science approaches to enhance future research. We propose theory-informed approaches to understand multilevel barriers, design strategies to overcome those barriers, and analyse the ability of those strategies to advance the uptake and scale-up of climate-related health interventions. These findings build upon previous theoretical work by grounding implementation science recommendations and guidance in the context of real-world practice, as detailed in the case studies.

Quantifying the effect of human population mobility on malaria risk in the Peruvian Amazon

The impact of human population movement (HPM) on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, has been described. However, there are limited data on the use of new technologies for the study of HPM in endemic areas with difficult access such as the Amazon. In this study conducted in rural Peruvian Amazon, we used self-reported travel surveys and GPS trackers coupled with a Bayesian spatial model to quantify the role of HPM on malaria risk. By using a densely sampled population cohort, this study highlighted the elevated malaria transmission in a riverine community of the Peruvian Amazon. We also found that the high connectivity between Amazon communities for reasons such as work, trading or family plausibly sustains such transmission levels. Finally, by using multiple human mobility metrics including GPS trackers, and adapted causal inference methods we identified for the first time the effect of human mobility patterns on malaria risk in rural Peruvian Amazon. This study provides evidence of the causal effect of HPM on malaria that may help to adapt current malaria control programmes in the Amazon.

Cross-border malaria drivers and risk factors on the Brazil–Venezuela border between 2016 and 2018

Globally, cross-border importation of malaria has become a challenge to malaria elimination. The border areas between Brazil and Venezuela have experienced high numbers of imported cases due to increased population movement and migration out of Venezuela. This study aimed to identify risk factors for imported malaria and delineate imported malaria hotspots in Roraima, Brazil and Bolivar, Venezuela between 2016 and 2018. Data on malaria surveillance cases from Roraima, Brazil and Bolivar, Venezuela from 2016 to 2018 were obtained from national surveillance systems: the Brazilian Malaria Epidemiology Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Malaria), the Venezuelan Ministry of Health and other non-government organizations. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify the risk factors for imported malaria. Spatial autocorrelation in malaria incidence was explored using Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistics. During the study period, there were 11,270 (24.3%) and 4072 (0.7%) imported malaria cases in Roraima, Brazil and Bolivar, Venezuela, respectively. In the multivariable logistic regression for Roraima, men were 28% less likely to be an imported case compared to women (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.665, 0.781). Ages 20–29 and 30–39 were 90% (AOR = 1.90; 95% CI 1.649, 2.181) and 54% (AOR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.331, 1.782) more likely to be an imported case compared to the 0–9 year age group, respectively. Imported cases were 197 times (AOR = 197.03; 95% CI 175.094, 221.712) more likely to occur in miners than those working in agriculture and domestic work. In Bolivar, cases aged 10–19 (AOR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.389, 2.192), 20–29 (AOR = 2.48; 95% CI 1.957, 3.144), and 30–39 (AOR = 2.29; 95% CI 1.803, 2.913) were at higher risk of being an imported case than those in the 0–9 year old group, with older age groups having a slightly higher risk compared to Roraima. Compared to agriculture and domestic workers, tourism, timber and fishing workers (AOR = 6.38; 95% CI 4.393, 9.254) and miners (AOR = 7.03; 95% CI 4.903, 10.092) were between six and seven times more likely to be an imported case. Spatial analysis showed the risk was higher along the international border in the municipalities of Roraima, Brazil. To achieve malaria elimination, cross-border populations in the hotspot municipalities will need targeted intervention strategies tailored to occupation, age and mobility status. Furthermore, all stakeholders, including implementers, policymakers, and donors, should support and explore the introduction of novel approaches to address these hard-to-reach populations with the most cost-effective interventions.

Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions

Spatial connectivity plays an important role in mosquito-borne disease transmission. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared environments, vector ecology and human movement. This systematic review synthesizes the spatial methods used to model mosquito-borne diseases, their spatial connectivity assumptions and the data used to inform spatial model components. We identified 248 papers eligible for inclusion. Most used statistical models (84.2%), although mechanistic are increasingly used. We identified 17 spatial models which used one of four methods (spatial covariates, local regression, random effects/fields and movement matrices). Over 80% of studies assumed that connectivity was distance-based despite this approach ignoring distant connections and potentially oversimplifying the process of transmission. Studies were more likely to assume connectivity was driven by human movement if the disease was transmitted by an Aedes mosquito. Connectivity arising from human movement was more commonly assumed in studies using a mechanistic model, likely influenced by a lack of statistical models able to account for these connections. Although models have been increasing in complexity, it is important to select the most appropriate, parsimonious model available based on the research question, disease transmission process, the spatial scale and availability of data, and the way spatial connectivity is assumed to occur.

Satellite Observations and Malaria: New Opportunities for Research and Applications

Satellite remote sensing provides a wealth of information about environmental factors that influence malaria transmission cycles and human populations at risk. Long-term observations facilitate analysis of climate–malaria relationships, and high-resolution data can be used to assess the effects of agriculture, urbanization, deforestation, and water management on malaria. New sources of very-high-resolution satellite imagery and synthetic aperture radar data will increase the precision and frequency of observations. Cloud computing platforms for remote sensing data combined with analysis-ready datasets and high-level data products have made satellite remote sensing more accessible to nonspecialists. Further collaboration between the malaria and remote sensing communities is needed to develop and implement useful geospatial data products that will support global efforts toward malaria control, elimination, and eradication.