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Zhu Q, Ye P, Wang Y, Duan L, He G, Er Y, Jin Y, Ji C, Hu J, Deng X, Ma W, Liu T. Heatwaves increase road traffic injury morbidity risk and burden in China and its provinces. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 188:108760. [PMID: 38788419 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2024] [Revised: 05/08/2024] [Accepted: 05/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
Previous studies have demonstrated health impacts of climate change, but evidence on heatwaves' associations with road traffic injury (RTI) is limited. In this study, individual information of RTI cases in May-September during 2006-2021 in China were obtained from the National Injury Surveillance System. Daily maximum temperatures (TMmax) during 2006-2021 were collected from the ERA-5 reanalysis, and the projected daily TMmax during 2020-2099 were obtained from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs). We used a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to investigate the association between short-term exposure (lag01 days) to heatwaves (exceeding the 92.5th percentile of daily TMmax for ≥ three consecutive days) and RTI, and to project heatwave-related RTI until 2099 across China. Finally, a total of 1 031 082 RTI cases were included in the analyses. Compared with non-heatwaves, the risks of RTI increased by 3.61 % during heatwaves. Greater associations were found in people aged 15-64 years, in people with transportation occupation, for non-motor traffic vehicle injuries, for severe RTI cases, and in Western China particularly in Qinghai province. We projected substantial increases in attributable fraction (AF) of heatwave-related RTI in the future, particularly in Western and Southwest China. The national average increase in AF (per decade) during 2020s-2090s was 0.036 % for SSP1-2.6 scenario, and 0.267 % for SSP5-8.5 scenario. This study provided evidence on the associations of heatwaves with RTI, and the heatwave-related RTI will substantially increase in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qijiong Zhu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control, Jinan University, Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Pengpeng Ye
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Yuan Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Leilei Duan
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Guanhao He
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Yuliang Er
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Ye Jin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Cuirong Ji
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Jianxiong Hu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Xiao Deng
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
| | - Tao Liu
- China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control, Jinan University, Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, China.
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Yang T, Kong J, Chen X, Zeng H, Zhou N, Yang X, Miao Q, Liao X, Zhang F, Lan F, Wang H, Li D. Overview of road traffic injuries among migrant workers in Guangzhou, China, from 2017 to 2021. Inj Prev 2024; 30:224-232. [PMID: 38123988 PMCID: PMC11137450 DOI: 10.1136/ip-2023-044986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2023] [Accepted: 11/18/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION There are many migrant workers in China's first-tier cities, but little is known about road safety. This paper systematically analysed road traffic injuries and risk factors among migrant workers in Guangzhou, China. METHODS Road traffic crash data from 2017 to 2021 were obtained from the Guangzhou Public Security Traffic Management Integrated System. We plotted the crash network of road users in road traffic crashes and used logistic regression to analyse the risk factors for migrant workers of motorcycle and four-wheeled vehicle crashes. Moreover, the roles of migrant workers and control individuals as perpetrators in road traffic crashes were also analysed. RESULTS Between 2017 and 2021, 76% of road traffic injuries were migrant workers in Guangzhou. Migrant workers who were motorcyclist drivers most commonly experienced road traffic injuries. Crashes between motorcyclists and car occupants were the most common. The illegal behaviours of migrant worker motorcyclists were closely related to casualties, with driving without a licence only and driving without a licence and drunk driving accounting for the greatest number. Migrant workers were responsible for many injuries of other road users. Motorcycle drivers have a higher proportion of drunk driving. DISCUSSION Migrant workers play an important role in road traffic safety. They were both the leading source of road traffic injuries and the main perpetrators of road traffic crashes. Measures such as strict requirements for migrant workers to drive motorcycles with licences, prohibit drunk driving, greater publicity of road safety regulations, and combining compulsory education with punishment for illegal behaviours.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tengfei Yang
- Department of Forensic Evidence Science, School of Forensic Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jiangwei Kong
- Department of Forensic Evidence Science, School of Forensic Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xinzhe Chen
- South China University of Technology School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Guangzhou, China
| | - Haotian Zeng
- Guangzhou Public Security Bureau, Guangzhou, China
| | - Nian Zhou
- Department of Forensic Evidence Science, School of Forensic Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xingan Yang
- Department of Forensic Evidence Science, School of Forensic Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Qifeng Miao
- Guangdong Province Research Center of Traffic Accident Identification Engineering Technology, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xinbiao Liao
- Department of Guangdong Public Security, Forensic Pathology Lab, Guangzhou, China
| | - Fu Zhang
- Department of Guangdong Public Security, Forensic Pathology Lab, Guangzhou, China
| | - Fengchong Lan
- South China University of Technology School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Guangzhou, China
| | - Huijun Wang
- Department of Forensic Evidence Science, School of Forensic Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Dongri Li
- Department of Forensic Evidence Science, School of Forensic Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
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Characteristics of road traffic accident types and casualties in Guangzhou, China, from 2007 to 2020: A retrospective cohort study based on the general population. Heliyon 2023; 9:e12822. [PMID: 36704281 PMCID: PMC9871230 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2022] [Revised: 12/18/2022] [Accepted: 01/03/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction This study aimed to explore the trend and main influencing factors of road traffic accidents in Guangzhou, China, from 2007 to 2020 and to provide a reference and guidance for government decision-making. Methods A retrospective cohort study was used to describe road traffic accidents in Guangzhou. According to the population types, all people with road traffic accidents were divided into migrant workers and the control population. We divided road users, administrative districts, motorcycle types and injury levels into subgroups to investigate the characteristics of road traffic accidents in Guangzhou. The road traffic accident data were derived from the Guangzhou Public Security Traffic Management Integrated System. Results The incidence rate of road traffic accidents per 10,000 vehicles in Guangzhou decreased from 36.55 in 2007 to 10.07 in 2012, remained relatively stable at 9.47 in 2017, and finally rose to 11.12 in 2020. The injury rate showed the same trend as the incidence rate, while the mortality rate gradually decreased from 14.21 in 2007 to 5.19 in 2020. Vulnerable road users such as motorized two-to-three-wheeler drivers and migrant workers were casualties in more than 80% of the cases. The proportion of casualties involving mopeds and electric bicycles increased rapidly after 2018. Motor vehicle drivers frequently caused road traffic accidents and were most often uninjured. Conclusion Road safety in Guangzhou has shown a clear trend of improvement, but casualties are uneven across administrative districts. More attention should be given to motorized two-to-three-wheelers, migrant workers, and road traffic violations by uninjured individuals.
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Towards Sustainable Road Safety in Saudi Arabia: Exploring Traffic Accident Causes Associated with Driving Behavior Using a Bayesian Belief Network. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14106315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the causes and effects of road accidents is critical for developing road and action plans in a country. The causation hypothesis elucidates how accidents occur and may be applied to accident analysis to more precisely anticipate, prevent, and manage road safety programs. Driving behavior is a critical factor to consider when determining the causes of traffic accidents. Inappropriate driving behaviors are a set of acts taken on the roadway that can result in aberrant conditions that may result in road accidents. In this study, using Al-Ahsa city in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province as a case study, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model was established by incorporating an expectation–maximization algorithm. The model examines the relationships between indicator variables with a special focus on driving behavior to measure the uncertainty associated with accident outcomes. The BBN was devised to analyze intentional and unintentional driving behaviors that cause different types of accidents and accident severities. The results showed when considering speeding alone, there is a 26% likelihood that collision will occur; this is a 63% increase over the initial estimate. When brake failure was considered in addition to speeding, the likelihood of a collision jumps from 26% to 33%, more than doubling the chance of a collision when compared to the initial value. These findings demonstrated that the BBN model was capable of efficiently investigating the complex linkages between driver behavior and the accident causes that are inherent in road accidents.
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