Modelling Voluntary General Population Vaccination Strategies during COVID-19 Outbreak: Influence of Disease Prevalence

Incorporating endogenous human behavior in models of COVID-19 transmission: A systematic scoping review

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic there was a plethora of dynamical forecasting models created, but their ability to effectively describe future trajectories of disease was mixed. A major challenge in evaluating future case trends was forecasting the behavior of individuals. When behavior was incorporated into models, it was primarily incorporated exogenously (e.g., fitting to cellphone mobility data). Fewer models incorporated behavior endogenously (e.g., dynamically changing a model parameter throughout the simulation).

Methods

This review aimed to qualitatively characterize models that included an adaptive (endogenous) behavioral element in the context of COVID-19 transmission. We categorized studies into three approaches: 1) feedback loops, 2) game theory/utility theory, and 3) information/opinion spread.

Findings

Of the 92 included studies, 72% employed a feedback loop, 27% used game/utility theory, and 9% used a model if information/opinion spread. Among all studies, 89% used a compartmental model alone or in combination with other model types. Similarly, 15% used a network model, 11% used an agent-based model, 7% used a system dynamics model, and 1% used a Markov chain model. Descriptors of behavior change included mask-wearing, social distancing, vaccination, and others. Sixty-eight percent of studies calibrated their model to observed data and 25% compared simulated forecasts to observed data. Forty-one percent of studies compared versions of their model with and without endogenous behavior. Models with endogenous behavior tended to show a smaller and delayed initial peak with subsequent periodic waves.

Interpretation

While many COVID-19 models incorporated behavior exogenously, these approaches may fail to capture future adaptations in human behavior, resulting in under- or overestimates of disease burden. By incorporating behavior endogenously, the next generation of infectious disease models could more effectively predict outcomes so that decision makers can better prepare for and respond to epidemics.

Funding

This study was funded in-part by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) MInD-Healthcare Program (1U01CK000536), the National Science Foundation (NSF) Modeling Dynamic Disease-Behavior Feedbacks for Improved Epidemic Prediction and Response grant (2229996), and the NSF PIPP Phase I: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Messaging and Modeling during Pandemics grant (2200256).

Literature review of digital twin in healthcare

This article aims to make a bibliometric literature review using systematic scientific mapping and content analysis of digital twins in healthcare to know the evolution, domain, keywords, content type, and kind and purpose of digital twin's implementation in healthcare, so a consolidation and future improvement of existing knowledge can be made and gaps for new studies can be identified. The increase in publications of digital twins in healthcare is quite recent and it is still concentrated in the domain of technology sources. The subject is majorly concentrated in patient's digital twin group and in precision medicine and aspects, issues and/or policies subgroups, although the publications keywords mirror it only at the group side. Digital twins in healthcare are probably stepping out of the infancy phase. On the other hand, digital twins in hospital group and the device and facilities management subgroups are more mature with all knowledge gathered from the manufacturing sector. There is an absence of some publication's types in general, device and care subgroup and no whole body or hospital digital twin was reported. Based on the presented arguments, guidelines for future research were presented: advance in the creation of general frameworks, in subgroups not as much explored, and in groups and subgroups already explored, but that need more advancement to achieve the main goals of a whole human or hospital digital twin with the main issues resolved.

Applications of Social Media and Digital Technologies in COVID-19 Vaccination: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Social media and digital technologies have played essential roles in disseminating information and promoting vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a need to summarize the applications and analytical techniques of social media and digital technologies in monitoring vaccine attitudes and administering COVID-19 vaccines.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to synthesize the global evidence on the applications of social media and digital technologies in COVID-19 vaccination and to explore their avenues to promote COVID-19 vaccination.

METHODS

We searched 6 databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, EBSCO, and IEEE Xplore) for English-language articles from December 2019 to August 2022. The search terms covered keywords relating to social media, digital technology, and COVID-19 vaccines. Articles were included if they provided original descriptions of applications of social media or digital health technologies/solutions in COVID-19 vaccination. Conference abstracts, editorials, letters, commentaries, correspondence articles, study protocols, and reviews were excluded. A modified version of the Appraisal Tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS tool) was used to evaluate the quality of social media-related studies. The review was undertaken with the guidance of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews.

RESULTS

A total of 178 articles were included in our review, including 114 social media articles and 64 digital technology articles. Social media has been applied for sentiment/emotion analysis, topic analysis, behavioral analysis, dissemination and engagement analysis, and information quality analysis around COVID-19 vaccination. Of these, sentiment analysis and topic analysis were the most common, with social media data being primarily analyzed by lexicon-based and machine learning techniques. The accuracy and reliability of information on social media can seriously affect public attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines, and misinformation often leads to vaccine hesitancy. Digital technologies have been applied to determine the COVID-19 vaccination strategy, predict the vaccination process, optimize vaccine distribution and delivery, provide safe and transparent vaccination certificates, and perform postvaccination surveillance. The applied digital technologies included algorithms, blockchain, mobile health, the Internet of Things, and other technologies, although with some barriers to their popularization.

CONCLUSIONS

The applications of social media and digital technologies in addressing COVID-19 vaccination-related issues represent an irreversible trend. Attention should be paid to the ethical issues and health inequities arising from the digital divide while applying and promoting these technologies.

Digital Twins for Managing Health Care Systems: Rapid Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Although most digital twin (DT) applications for health care have emerged in precision medicine, DTs can potentially support the overall health care process. DTs (twinned systems, processes, and products) can be used to optimize flows, improve performance, improve health outcomes, and improve the experiences of patients, doctors, and other stakeholders with minimal risk.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to review applications of DT systems, products, and processes as well as analyze the potential of these applications for improving health care management and the challenges associated with this emerging technology.

METHODS

We performed a rapid review of the literature and reported available studies on DTs and their applications in health care management. We searched 5 databases for studies published between January 2002 and January 2022 and included peer-reviewed studies written in English. We excluded studies reporting DT usage to support health care practice (organ transplant, precision medicine, etc). Studies were analyzed based on their contribution toward DT technology to improve user experience in health care from human factors and systems engineering perspectives, accounting for the type of impact (product, process, or performance/system level). Challenges related to the adoption of DTs were also summarized.

RESULTS

The DT-related studies aimed at managing health care systems have been growing over time from 0 studies in 2002 to 17 in 2022, with 7 published in 2021 (N=17 studies). The findings reported on applications categorized by DT type (system: n=8; process: n=5; product: n=4) and their contributions or functions. We identified 4 main functions of DTs in health care management including safety management (n=3), information management (n=2), health management and well-being promotion (n=3), and operational control (n=9). DTs used in health care systems management have the potential to avoid unintended or unexpected harm to people during the provision of health care processes. They also can help identify crisis-related threats to a system and control the impacts. In addition, DTs ensure privacy, security, and real-time information access to all stakeholders. Furthermore, they are beneficial in empowering self-care abilities by enabling health management practices and providing high system efficiency levels by ensuring that health care facilities run smoothly and offer high-quality care to every patient.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of DTs for health care systems management is an emerging topic. This can be seen in the limited literature supporting this technology. However, DTs are increasingly being used to ensure patient safety and well-being in an organized system. Thus, further studies aiming to address the challenges of health care systems challenges and improve their performance should investigate the potential of DT technology. In addition, such technologies should embed human factors and ergonomics principles to ensure better design and more successful impact on patient and doctor experiences.