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Liu CC, Zhao S, Deng H. A Multi-SCALE Community Network-Based SEIQR Model to Evaluate the Dynamic NPIs of COVID-19. Healthcare (Basel) 2023; 11:healthcare11101467. [PMID: 37239752 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare11101467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2023] [Revised: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Regarding the problem of epidemic outbreak prevention and control, infectious disease dynamics models cannot support urban managers in reducing urban-scale healthcare costs through community-scale control measures, as they usually have difficulty meeting the requirements for simulation at different scales. In this paper, we propose combining contact networks at different spatial scales to study the COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai from March to July 2022, calculate the initial Rt through the number of cases at the beginning of the outbreak, and evaluate the effectiveness of dynamic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) adopted at different time periods in Shanghai using our proposed approach. In particular, our proposed contact network is a three-layer multi-scale network that is used to distinguish social interactions occurring in areas of different sizes, as well as to distinguish between intensive and non-intensive population contacts. This susceptible-exposure-infection-quarantine-recovery (SEIQR) epidemic model constructed based on a multi-scale network can more effectively assess the feasibility of small-scale control measures, such as assessing community quarantine measures and mobility restrictions at different moments and phases of an epidemic. Our experimental results show that this model can meet the simulation needs at different scales, and our further discussion and analysis show that the spread of the epidemic in Shanghai from March to July 2022 can be successfully controlled by implementing a strict long-term dynamic NPI strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng-Chieh Liu
- School of Software Engineering, Tongji University, No. 1239, Siping Road, Shanghai 200092, China
| | - Shengjie Zhao
- School of Software Engineering, Tongji University, No. 1239, Siping Road, Shanghai 200092, China
| | - Hao Deng
- School of Software Engineering, Tongji University, No. 1239, Siping Road, Shanghai 200092, China
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Fernández-Marín H, Bruner-Montero G, Portugal-Loayza A, Miranda V, Villarreal Dominguez AE, Ortega-Barría E, Núñez-Samudio V, Landires I, Mejía LC, López-Vergès S, Wcislo WT, Kosagisharaf JR. Dynamics of Mask Use as a Prevention Strategy against SARS-CoV-2 in Panama. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph182412982. [PMID: 34948592 PMCID: PMC8701989 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182412982] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2021] [Revised: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Early in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many national public health authorities implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate disease outbreaks. Panamá established mandatory mask use two months after its first documented case. Initial compliance was high, but diverse masks were used in public areas. We studied behavioral dynamics of mask use through the first two COVID-19 waves in Panama, to improve the implementation of effective, low-cost public health containment measures when populations are exposed to novel air-borne pathogens. Mask use behavior was recorded from pedestrians in four Panamanian populations (August to December 2020). We recorded facial coverings and if used, the type of mask, and gender and estimated age of the wearer. Our results showed that people were highly compliant (>95%) with mask mandates and demonstrated important population-level behaviors: (1) decreasing use of cloth masks over time, and increasing use of surgical masks; (2) mask use was 3-fold lower in suburban neighborhoods than other public areas and (3) young people were least likely to wear masks. Results help focus on highly effective, low-cost, public health interventions for managing and controlling a pandemic. Considerations of behavioral preferences for different masks, relative to pricing and availability, are essential for optimizing public health policies. Policies to increase the availability of effective masks, and behavioral nudges to increase acceptance, and to facilitate mask usage, during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and for future pandemics of respiratory pathogens, are key tools, especially for nations lagging in access to expensive vaccines and pharmacological approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hermógenes Fernández-Marín
- Centro de Biodiversidad y Descubrimiento de Drogas, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Clayton 0843-01103, Panama; (A.E.V.D.); (L.C.M.); (J.R.K.)
- Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Panamá 0816-02582, Panama; (V.N.-S.); (I.L.); (S.L.-V.)
- Correspondence:
| | | | | | - Virginia Miranda
- Complejo Hospitalario Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social, Panamá 1393, Panama;
| | - Alcibiades Elias Villarreal Dominguez
- Centro de Biodiversidad y Descubrimiento de Drogas, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Clayton 0843-01103, Panama; (A.E.V.D.); (L.C.M.); (J.R.K.)
- Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Panamá 0816-02582, Panama; (V.N.-S.); (I.L.); (S.L.-V.)
| | - Eduardo Ortega-Barría
- Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT), Panamá 0816-02582, Panama;
| | - Virginia Núñez-Samudio
- Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Panamá 0816-02582, Panama; (V.N.-S.); (I.L.); (S.L.-V.)
- Instituto de Ciencias Médicas, Las Tablas 06001, Panama
| | - Iván Landires
- Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Panamá 0816-02582, Panama; (V.N.-S.); (I.L.); (S.L.-V.)
- Instituto de Ciencias Médicas, Las Tablas 06001, Panama
| | - Luis C. Mejía
- Centro de Biodiversidad y Descubrimiento de Drogas, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Clayton 0843-01103, Panama; (A.E.V.D.); (L.C.M.); (J.R.K.)
- Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Panamá 0816-02582, Panama; (V.N.-S.); (I.L.); (S.L.-V.)
| | - Sandra López-Vergès
- Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Panamá 0816-02582, Panama; (V.N.-S.); (I.L.); (S.L.-V.)
- Gorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panamá 0816-02593, Panama
| | | | - Jagannatha Rao Kosagisharaf
- Centro de Biodiversidad y Descubrimiento de Drogas, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Clayton 0843-01103, Panama; (A.E.V.D.); (L.C.M.); (J.R.K.)
- Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Panamá 0816-02582, Panama; (V.N.-S.); (I.L.); (S.L.-V.)
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Effects of Using the Surgical Mask and FFP2 during the 6-Min Walking Test. A Randomized Controlled Trial. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph182312420. [PMID: 34886145 PMCID: PMC8656790 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182312420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2021] [Revised: 11/13/2021] [Accepted: 11/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of masks has been recommended as a containment measure. The mask is a hindrance to normal breathing that causes discomfort. This could put more work on the respiratory accessory muscles, and, consequently, these muscles could see their tone increase. For this reason, during this clinical trial (registered in clincaltrials.gov, number: NCT04789603), it was observed whether the use of the mask produced changes in the distance traveled, in the heart rate, in the oxygenometry, in the self-perceived dyspnea and in the tone of accessory respiratory muscles during a 6-min walk test (6MWT). Fifty healthy volunteers were recruited and carried out the 6MWT on three occasions. They carried out the 6MWT in various situations: using an FFP2/N95 mask, using a surgical mask, and without using a mask. The distance walked, the heart rate, the oxygen therapy, the tone of the accessory respiratory muscles, and the self-perceived dyspnea were recorded in each situation. Significant differences were found between the three situations in terms of self-perceived dyspnea FFP2/N95 > surgical mask > no mask. However, there are no differences between the experimental situations during the 6MWT in terms of distance travelled, heart rate, oxygenometry or respiratory muscle tone.
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