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Alrawas L, Tridane A, Benrhmach G. A novel approach to model the role of mobility suppression and vaccinations in containing epidemics in a network of cities. Infect Dis Model 2024; 9:397-410. [PMID: 38385016 PMCID: PMC10879667 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2023] [Revised: 12/12/2023] [Accepted: 01/14/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
This paper presents a comprehensive agent-based model for the spread of an infection in a network of cities. Directional mobility is defined between each two cities and can take different values. The work examines the role that such mobility levels play in containing the infection with various vaccination coverage and age distributions. The results indicate that mobility reduction is sufficient to control the disease under all circumstances and full lockdowns are not a necessity. It has to be reduced to different ratios depending on the vaccination level and age distribution. A key finding is that increasing vaccination coverage above a certain level does not affect the mobility suppression level required to control the infection anymore for the cases of young population and heterogeneous age distributions. By investigating several migration and commuting patterns, it is found that shutting mobility in a few local places is favored against reducing mobility over the entire country network. In addition, commuting -and not migration-influences the spread level of the infection. The work offers an exclusive combined network-based and agent-based model that makes use of randomly generated mobility matrices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leen Alrawas
- Department of Physics, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Abdessamad Tridane
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- Emirates Center for Mobility Research, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Ghassane Benrhmach
- Department of Statistics and Business Analytics, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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2
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Hu S, Xiong C, Zhao Y, Yuan X, Wang X. Vaccination, human mobility, and COVID-19 health outcomes: Empirical comparison before and during the outbreak of SARS-Cov-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant. Vaccine 2023; 41:5097-5112. [PMID: 37270367 PMCID: PMC10234469 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.05.056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Revised: 04/27/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant surge has raised concerns about the effectiveness of vaccines and the impact of imprudent reopening. Leveraging over two years of county-level COVID-19 data in the US, this study aims to investigate relationships among vaccination, human mobility, and COVID-19 health outcomes (assessed via case rate and case-fatality rate), controlling for socioeconomic, demographic, racial/ethnic, and partisan factors. A set of cross-sectional models was first fitted to empirically compare disparities in COVID-19 health outcomes before and during the Omicron surge. Then, time-varying mediation analyses were employed to delineate how the effects of vaccine and mobility on COVID-19 health outcomes vary over time. Results showed that vaccine effectiveness against case rate lost significance during the Omicron surge, while its effectiveness against case-fatality rate remained significant throughout the pandemic. We also documented salient structural inequalities in COVID-19-related outcomes, with disadvantaged populations consistently bearing a larger brunt of case and death tolls, regardless of high vaccination rates. Last, findings revealed that mobility presented a significantly positive relationship with case rates during each wave of variant outbreak. Mobility substantially mediated the direct effect from vaccination to case rate, leading to a 10.276 % (95 % CI: 6.257, 14.294) decrease in vaccine effectiveness on average. Altogether, our study implies that sole reliance on vaccination to halt COVID-19 needs to be re-examined. Well-resourced and coordinated efforts to enhance vaccine effectiveness, mitigate health disparity and selectively loosen non-pharmaceutical interventions are essential to bringing the pandemic to an end.
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Affiliation(s)
- Songhua Hu
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States.
| | - Chenfeng Xiong
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Villanova University, PA 19085, United States.
| | - Yingrui Zhao
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States
| | - Xin Yuan
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Villanova University, PA 19085, United States
| | - Xuqiu Wang
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Villanova University, PA 19085, United States
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Jiao J, Shi L, Yang M, Yang J, Liu M, Sun G. The impact of containment policy and mobility on COVID-19 cases through structural equation model in Chile, Singapore, South Korea and Israel. PeerJ 2023; 11:e15769. [PMID: 37547719 PMCID: PMC10402700 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.15769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives The study aims to understand the impact of containment policy and mobility on COVID-19 cases in Chile, Singapore, South Korea and Israel. To provide experience in epidemic prevention and control. Methods Structural equation modeling (SEM) of containment policies, mobility, and COVID-19 cases were used to test and analyze the proposed hypotheses. Results Chile, Israel and Singapore adopted containment strategies, focusing on closure measures. South Korea adopted a mitigation strategy with fewer closure measures, focusing on vaccination and severe case management. There was a significant negative relationship among containment policies, mobility, and COVID-19 cases. Conclusion To control the COVID-19 and slow down the increase of COVID-19 cases, countries can increase the stringency of containment policies when COVID-19 epidemic is more severe. Thus, countries can take measures from the following three aspects: strengthen the risk monitoring, and keep abreast of the COVID-19 risk; adjust closure measures in time and reduce mobility; and strengthen public education on COVID-19 prevention to motivate citizen to consciously adhere to preventive measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Jiao
- Department of Health Management, School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
| | - Leiyu Shi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Manfei Yang
- Department of Health Management, School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Junyan Yang
- Department of Health Management, School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Meiheng Liu
- Department of Health Management, School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Gang Sun
- Department of Health Management, School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
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Bei H, Li P, Cai Z, Murcio R. The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on human mobility: The London case. Heliyon 2023; 9:e18769. [PMID: 37636432 PMCID: PMC10447923 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2023] [Revised: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 07/27/2023] [Indexed: 08/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has become a global public health crisis, causing significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. As an early response, different lockdowns were imposed in the UK (and the world) to limit the spread of the disease. Although effective, these measures profoundly impacted mobility patterns across cities, significantly reducing the number of people commuting to work or travelling for leisure. As different governments introduced massive vaccination programs to tackle the pandemic, cities have significantly but slowly increased human mobility, enabling the resumption of travel, work, and social activities. Nevertheless, how much can this return to normal mobility patterns be attributed to vaccines? In this study, we answer this question using a statistical approach, analysing two different open urban mobility datasets to quantify the effect vaccination rollouts have had on increased human activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Honghan Bei
- School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, People's Republic of China
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, People's Republic of China
- School of Management, Shangai University, 149 Yanchang Road, Shanghai, Shanghai Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Peiyan Li
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhi Cai
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, People's Republic of China
| | - Roberto Murcio
- Department of Geography, Birkbeck, London University, Malet Street, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HX, UK
- Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London, W1T 4TJ, UK
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5
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Er S, Yang S, Zhao T. County augmented transformer for COVID-19 state hospitalizations prediction. Sci Rep 2023; 13:9955. [PMID: 37340005 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-36378-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023] Open
Abstract
The prolonged COVID-19 pandemic has tied up significant medical resources, and its management poses a challenge for the public health care decision making. Accurate predictions of the hospitalizations are crucial for the decision makers to make informed decision for the medical resource allocation. This paper proposes a method named County Augmented Transformer (CAT). To generate accurate predictions of four-week-ahead COVID-19 related hospitalizations for every states in the United States. Inspired by the modern deep learning techniques, our method is based on a self-attention model (known as the transformer model) that is actively used in Natural Language Processing. Our transformer based model can capture both short-term and long-term dependencies within the time series while enjoying computational efficiency. Our model is a data based approach that utilizes the publicly available information including the COVID-19 related number of confirmed cases, deaths, hospitalizations data, and the household median income data. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the strength and the usability of our model as a potential tool for assisting the medical resources allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Siawpeng Er
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA
| | - Shihao Yang
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA.
| | - Tuo Zhao
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA.
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Albassam D, Nouh M, Hosoi A. The Effectiveness of Mobility Restrictions on Controlling the Spread of COVID-19 in a Resistant Population. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:5343. [PMID: 37047958 PMCID: PMC10094504 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20075343] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2022] [Revised: 03/05/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Human mobility plays an important role in the spread of COVID-19. Given this knowledge, countries implemented mobility-restricting policies. Concomitantly, as the pandemic progressed, population resistance to the virus increased via natural immunity and vaccination. We address the question: "What is the impact of mobility-restricting measures on a resistant population?" We consider two factors: different types of points of interest (POIs)-including transit stations, groceries and pharmacies, retail and recreation, workplaces, and parks-and the emergence of the Delta variant. We studied a group of 14 countries and estimated COVID-19 transmission based on the type of POI, the fraction of population resistance, and the presence of the Delta variant using a Pearson correlation between mobility and the growth rate of cases. We find that retail and recreation venues, transit stations, and workplaces are the POIs that benefit the most from mobility restrictions, mainly if the fraction of the population with resistance is below 25-30%. Groceries and pharmacies may benefit from mobility restrictions when the population resistance fraction is low, whereas in parks, there is little advantage to mobility-restricting measures. These results are consistent for both the original strain and the Delta variant; Omicron data were not included in this work.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dina Albassam
- King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST), Riyadh 11442, Saudi Arabia;
| | - Mariam Nouh
- King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST), Riyadh 11442, Saudi Arabia;
| | - Anette Hosoi
- Institute for Data, System and Society (IDSS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;
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7
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Bilgel F, Karahasan BC. Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: A Unified Causal Framework. COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS 2023; 63:1-41. [PMID: 36844967 PMCID: PMC9942069 DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10359-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
This paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fırat Bilgel
- Department of Economics, MEF University, 34396 Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Burhan Can Karahasan
- Department of Economics and Finance, Piri Reis University, 34940 Istanbul, Turkey
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8
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Zhang N, Jiang T, Zhang Y, Zhao G. Residential mobility predicts COVID-19 and seasonal flu vaccination behaviors in the United States. Front Public Health 2023; 10:1064962. [PMID: 36777774 PMCID: PMC9911524 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1064962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/31/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Aim Vaccination is one of the most effective strategies to contain the transmission of infectious diseases; however, people's intentions and behavior for vaccination vary across different regions and countries around the world. It is not clear how socioecological factors such as residential mobility influence people's vaccination behaviors for infectious diseases. Methods We analyzed public data on residential mobility and vaccination rates for COVID-19 and seasonal flu in the United States and explored how residential mobility in the previous year influenced vaccination rates for COVID-19 and seasonal flu (2011-2018) across 50 states of the US. The data were accessed and analyzed in 2021. Results Study 1 demonstrated that collective-level residential mobility predicted COVID-19 vaccination rates across the United States (B = -168.162, 95% CI [-307.097, -29.227], adjusted R 2 = 0.091, p = 0.019). Study 2 corroborated this finding by documenting that collective-level residential mobility predicted vaccination rates for seasonal flu from 2011 to 2018 across the United States (B = -0.789, 95% CI = [-1.018, -0.56], adjusted R 2 = 0.222, p < 0.001). The link between residential mobility and vaccination behavior was robust after controlling relevant variables, including collectivism, cultural tightness-looseness, and sociodemographic variables. Conclusions Our research demonstrated that residential mobility is an important socioecological factor that influences people's vaccination behaviors for COVID-19 and seasonal flu. The results enrich our understanding of the socioecological factors that influence vaccination behaviors and have implications for developing tailored interventions to promote vaccination during pandemics of infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ning Zhang
- Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health and Center for Clinical Big Data Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Tao Jiang
- Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States
| | - Ying Zhang
- Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health and Center for Clinical Big Data Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Gang Zhao
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Hangzhou, Hangzhou, China,*Correspondence: Gang Zhao ✉
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9
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Sung H. Non-pharmaceutical interventions and urban vehicle mobility in Seoul during the COVID-19 pandemic. CITIES (LONDON, ENGLAND) 2022; 131:103911. [PMID: 35966967 PMCID: PMC9359518 DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.103911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Revised: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions to control human mobility are important in preventing COVID-19 transmission. These interventions must also help effectively control the urban mobility of vehicles, which can be a safer travel mode during the pandemic, at any time and place. However, few studies have identified the effectiveness of vehicle mobility in terms of time and place. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions at both local and national levels on intra- and inter-urban vehicle mobility by time of day in Seoul, South Korea, by applying the autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables. The study found that social distancing measures at the national level were effective for intra-urban vehicle mobility, especially at night-time, but not for inter-urban mobility. Information provision with emergency text messages by cell phone was effective in reducing vehicle mobility in daytime and night-time, but not during morning peak hours. At the local level, both restrictions on late-night transit operations and stricter social distancing measures were mostly significant in reducing night-time mobility only in intra-urban areas. The study also indicates when (what time of the day), where (which area within the city), and which combination strategy could be more effective in containing urban vehicle mobility. This study recommends that restrictions on human mobility should also be extended to vehicle mobility, especially in inter-urban areas and during morning peak hours, by systematically designing diverse non-pharmaceutical interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyungun Sung
- School of Urban Studies, Hanyang University, 222, Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, South Korea
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10
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Stanimirovic D, Tepej Jocic L. Accelerated Digitalization of the Epidemiological Measures: Overcoming the Technological and Process Complexities of Establishing the EU Digital COVID Certificate in Slovenia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:14322. [PMID: 36361204 PMCID: PMC9653873 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192114322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Revised: 10/28/2022] [Accepted: 10/31/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE In order to facilitate free movement of EU citizens during the COVID-19 pandemic, in early 2021 the European Commission proposed the establishment of an EU Digital COVID Certificate. By 1 July 2021, all EU Member States have successfully implemented the EU Digital COVID Certificate. The technological and procedural complexities encountered while establishing the EU Digital COVID Certificate in Slovenia are reviewed in this article. METHODS This research employs a case study methodology. Controlled focus group sessions comprising eighteen eminent experts (not including medical and other expert groups involved in the epidemiological measures) in charge of the EU Digital COVID Certificate and other national eHealth services in Slovenia were used as the primary data collection technique. Focus group discussions were preceded by an all-encompassing review of the literature and the examination of numerous materials covering the EU Digital COVID Certificate-related content. RESULTS The study findings reveal that the technological and process complexities are associated with the fragmented data sources and complicated and abundant business rules used for the generation and verification of the EU Digital COVID Certificate. However, despite the technological, process and other impediments that arose during the establishment of the EU Digital COVID Certificate in Slovenia, it can be argued that the approach used and stakeholder commitment, especially in critical pandemic conditions, offered the much-desired harmonisation and application of this digital service at the EU level. CONCLUSIONS The study highlights the importance of a sound and coherent model for the impending establishment of cross-border eHealth services and suggests that the ad hoc implementation of such challenging and delicate digital solutions in the future will only be feasible with the prior construction of robust and interoperable digital health infrastructures across the EU Member States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dalibor Stanimirovic
- Faculty of Public Administration, University of Ljubljana, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
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Brackx F, Vanongeval F, Natalia YA, Molenberghs G, Steenberghen T. The Effect of Transborder Mobility on COVID-19 Incidences in Belgium. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:9968. [PMID: 36011602 PMCID: PMC9408231 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19169968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2022] [Revised: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 08/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Belgium is a geographically small country bordered by The Netherlands, France, Germany, and Luxembourg, with intense transborder mobility, defined as mobility in the border regions with neighboring countries. It is therefore of interest to examine how the 14-day COVID-19 confirmed case incidence in the border regions is influenced by that of the adjacent regions in the neighboring countries and thus, whether and how it differs from that in the adjacent non-border regions within Belgium. To this end, the 14-day COVID-19 confirmed case incidence is studied at the level of Belgian provinces, well-defined border areas within Belgium, and adjacent regions in the neighboring countries. Auxiliary information encompasses work-related border traffic, travel rates, the proportion of people with a different nationality, the stringency index of the non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the degree of urbanization at the level of the municipality. Especially in transnational urbanized areas such as between the Belgian and Dutch provinces of Limburg and between the Belgian province of Antwerp and the Dutch province of North Brabant, the impact on incidence is visible, at least at some points in time, especially when the national incidences differ between neighboring countries. In contrast, the intra-Belgian language border regions show very little transborder impact on the incidence curves, except around the Brussels capital region, leading to various periods where the incidences are very different in the Dutch-speaking north and the French-speaking south of Belgium. Our findings suggest that while travel restrictions may be needed at some points during a pandemic, a more fine-grained approach than merely closing national borders may be considered. At the same time, in border regions with considerable transborder mobility, it is recommended to coordinate the non-pharmaceutical interventions between the authorities of the various countries overlapping with the border region. While this seems logical, there are clear counterexamples, e.g., where non-essential shops, restaurants, and bars are closed in one country but not in the neighboring country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Febe Brackx
- Spatial Applications Division, KU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
| | - Fien Vanongeval
- Spatial Applications Division, KU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
| | | | - Geert Molenberghs
- Spatial Applications Division, KU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
- I-Biostat, Data Science Institute, Universiteit Hasselt, 3500 Hasselt, Belgium
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12
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Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of STDs in China: based on the GM (1,1) model. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:519. [PMID: 35659579 PMCID: PMC9166241 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07496-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background COVID-19 and Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) are two very important diseases. However, relevant researches about how COVID-19 pandemic has impacted on the epidemiological trend of STDs are limited in China. This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on STDs in China and proposed relevant recommendations to be used in bettering health. Methods The incidence of HIV infection, syphilis and gonorrhea in China from 2008 to 2020 were collected. Grey Model (1,1) were established to predict the incidence of STDs with the incidence data of these three STDs from 2013 to 2018 considering the impact of policies in China, respectively. We then calculated the predictive incidence of each STD in 2019, 2020 and 2021 by the established Model. And we estimated the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemiological changes of STDs by analyzing the difference between the absolute percentage error (APE) of the predictive incidence and actual rate in 2019 and 2020. Results The incidence of HIV infection and syphilis showed a trend of increase from 2008 to 2019 in China, but that for gonorrhea was fluctuant. Of note, the incidence of these three STDs decreased significantly in 2020 compared with that in 2019. The APE of HIV infection, syphilis and gonorrhea in 2020 (20.54%, 15.45% and 60.88%) were about 7 times, 4 times and 2 times of that in 2019 (2.94%, 4.07% and 30.41%). The incidence of HIV infection, syphilis and gonorrhea would be 5.77/100,000, 39.64/100,000 and 13.19/100,000 in 2021 based on our model. Conclusions The epidemiological trend of STDs in China was significant influenced by COVID-19 pandemic. It is important to balance the control of COVID-19 and timely management of STDs during the COVID-19 epidemic to prevent or reduce the poor outcome among COVID-19 patients with STDs. New management strategies on STDs, such as leveraging social media, online medical care, rapid self-testing, timely diagnosis and treatment guarantee and balance of medical resources for STDs management should be adapted in the context of the long-term effects of COVID-19. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07496-y.
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Hartsock JA, Head KJ, Kasting ML, Sturm L, Zimet G. Perceptions of the ethical permissibility of strict travel restrictions to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INTERDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVES 2022; 14:100577. [PMID: 35252841 PMCID: PMC8885284 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2022.100577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2021] [Revised: 02/21/2022] [Accepted: 02/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Although there has been extensive exploration of public opinion surrounding many non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at mitigating transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (e.g. mask-wearing and social distancing), there has been less discussion of the public's perception of the ethical appropriateness other NPIs. This paper presents the results of a survey of U.S. adults' opinions of the ethical permissibility of both state-to-state and international travel restrictions to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Our research revealed overall high agreement with the ethical permissibility of both state-to-state and international travel restrictions, though we saw significant difference across political party affiliation and conservative/liberal ideologies. Other factors associated with agreement with state-to-state travel restrictions included increasing education, increasing income, and both high and low commitment altruism. When considering international travel restrictions, income, education, and low commitment altruism were associated with increased agreement with the ethical permissibility of international travel restrictions. Ethical analysis and implications are explored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane A Hartsock
- Clinical and Organizational Ethics - Indiana University Health Adjunct Assistant Professor, Medical Humanities and Health Studies - Indiana University School of Liberal Arts 1800 N. Capital Ave. Suite E644 Indianapolis IN 46202, United States
| | - Katharine J Head
- Department of Communication Studies, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis 450 University Blvd. Indianapolis, IN 46202, United States
| | - Monica L Kasting
- Department of Public Health Purdue University 812 W. State Street, Room 216 West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States
| | - Lynne Sturm
- Associate Professor of Clinical Pediatrics Indiana University School of Medicine 1002 Wishard Boulevard, Suite 3120 Indianapolis IN 46202, United States
| | - Gregory Zimet
- Professor of Pediatrics & Psychiatry Indiana University School of Medicine 410 W. 10 Street, Suite 1001 Indianapolis, IN 46202, United States
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