Small Relative Age Effect Appears in Professional Female Italian Team Sports

Relative age effect across the talent identification process of youth female soccer players in the United States: Influence of birth year, position, biological maturation, and skill level

The aims of the study were to examine the relative age effect (RAE) in youth female soccer players in the United States (US) and the influence of birth year, playing position, estimated maturation and skill ratings. The sample consisted of 3,364 youth female soccer players who were active in the 2021-2022 US soccer season across three main stages of the talent identification (TID) process for Youth National Team (YNT) players (i.e., Club, TID Center, and YNT). A prevalent RAE for players born in Q1 was present in the full sample. A significant prevalence for Q1 players were identified for both Club and TID Center, but not YNT. A significant RAE prevalence for Q1 players was identified for most of the age groups from U13-U18 at Club (except U18) and TID Center (except U17). Significant RAEs prevalence for players born in Q1 were found in Goalkeepers, Center Backs, Midfielders, and Center Forwards at Club and TID Center (except Wide Forwards). The data identified a consistent RAE prevalence for Q1 players in early and on-time-maturers across all levels. An even birthdate spread was evident in YNT with a prevalence for Q4 players and a higher percentage of late-maturers than elsewhere in the TID process. Results reinforce evidence indicating RAEs still exist in soccer, yet show for the first time within a youth female soccer TID process, the influence of contextual factors on the prevalence of RAE. This information can be used to advance TID and development across the US soccer landscape.

Relative age effect in male and female elite international amateur boxing

This study aimed to determine whether the Relative Age Effect (RAE) was present in different sexes and age categories in 12 elite-level international amateur boxing competitions. A total of 4813 athletes competing between 2013 and 2022 were analysed. Athletes were split into four quartiles according to their birth date and compared to the expected (equal) birth date distribution using chi-squared goodness of fit. The results revealed greater RAE prevalence in youth compared to the senior group. RAE was more prominent in males compared to females, with the female group showing an inverse RAE trend. Odds ratio (OR) showed an overrepresentation of male boxers born in Q1 compared to Q4 (OR > 1.19-1.33), while senior female boxers presented an inverse trend (OR < 0.95). Odds Ratios for medallists within the youth group were greater than 1.07 (except Q3 × Q4 = 0.93) highlighting an overrepresentation of boxers born earlier in the year. A shift in strategy to reduce the RAE in young boxers whereby coaches focus less on the short-term pursuit of sporting success is encouraged. Organisations and coaches should increase awareness and provide systematic education around RAE, whilst creating equal competitive opportunities for all young boxers to reduce the extent of RAE in boxing.

Mitigating against relative age effects in youth Track & Field: Validating corrective adjustment procedures across multiple events

OBJECTIVES

With the aim to better identify talented Track & Field performance development, this study estimated the relationships between chronological (decimal) age with 60-m sprint, high jump, triple jump, and pole vault performance. Then, to mitigate against expected Relative Age Effects (RAEs), Corrective Adjustment Procedures (CAPs) were applied to an independent sample.

DESIGN

Mixed-longitudinal design examining public data between 2005 and 2019.

METHODS

The performances of 5339 Italian sprinters and jumpers (53.1 %) spanning 11.01-17.99 years of age were examined, with trendlines between chronological age and performance established. Related to an independent sample (N = 40,306; female 45.5 %), trendlines were then utilised to apply CAPs and adjust individual performance. Considering raw and adjusted performance data, RAE distributions were examined for the top 25 % and 10 % performers.

RESULTS

For all male and female events, quadratic models best summarised the relationships between chronological age and performance (R2 = 0.74-0.89). When examining independent athletes in similar event, RAEs were more pronounced in males (Cramer's V = 0.35-0.14) than females (Cramer's V = 0.29-0.07). For both sexes, RAE magnitude decreased with age and increased according to performance level (i.e., Top25%-Top10%). However, following CAP applications, RAEs were reduced or removed within annual age groups and performance levels.

CONCLUSIONS

With RAEs prevalent across Italian youth Track & Field events, findings validate CAPs as a strategy to account for the influence of relative age differences on athletic performance. CAPs help establish a more equitable strategy for performance evaluation and could help improve the efficacy of long-term athlete development programming.

Junior to senior transition pathway in Italian Football: The rocky road to the top is not determined by youth national team's selections

Football is a popular sport, but little is known about the youth-to-senior transition rates in elite players, particularly in large and successful countries. This study aims to investigate the youth-to-senior transition rate in the Italian national football team, both prospectively and retrospectively, and to explore if Relative Age Effects (RAEs) affect this transition. Data from 885 players selected in youth and senior Italian national teams between 2000 and 2021 were included in the study. For each player, the birthdate and the number of selection in Under 16, 17, 19, 21 and senior team was considered. The transition rate was determined by the number of youth players competing in the Senior National team (and vice versa), whilst birth quarter (Q) distributions with a chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Prospectively, the transition rate increased as age increased (i.e., from ~20% in U16 to ~50% in U19). Retrospectively, less than 10-20% of youth players were subsequently selected for the senior team. Data revealed a skewed birth date distribution in all age groups, and the RAEs magnitude decreased when age increased (i.e., ORs for Q1 vs Q4 was ~ 9 in U16 and ~ 1.7 in senior teams). Nevertheless, the RAE magnitude was smaller for successfully transitioned players. In conclusion, most players in the senior team were not previously selected for youth teams suggesting that junior international experience may not be a prerequisite for later success. Moreover, while the birthdate strongly influences the selection of youth national teams, its impact is less evident in the youth-to-senior transition.

Relative age effect reversal on the junior-to-senior transition in world-class athletics

The relative age effect (RAE) is a selection bias resulting from the interaction between the selected dates and birthdates. Nevertheless, the impact of birthdate on the junior-to-senior transition in international track and field is unclear. This study aimed to quantify the RAE's magnitude and test if birthdate affects the junior-to-senior transition rate. The birthdate and performances of 5,766 sprinters (female: 51.0%) and 5,863 jumpers (female: 45.9%) were collected. Elite athletes (operationally defined as the World's all-time Top 200, 100 and 50 athletes) were identified according to Under 18 and Senior categories. Skewed quartile distributions were observed in the Under 18 (effect size ranged = 0.15-0.10) but not in the Senior category. RAE magnitude increased according to performance level (i.e., from Top 200 to Top 50) and was higher in males than females. Relatively younger athletes showed significantly higher transition rates with a higher chance of maintaining top level in the senior category (odds ratio (OR) ~ 1.64). The probability of maintaining success was lower for sprinters than jumpers (OR ~ 0.70), influenced by decade of birth and continental place but similar for male and female athletes. Data corroborate that relatively younger athletes are disadvantaged in the junior category but advantaged when transitioning to the senior category.

Youth-to-senior transition in women's and girls' football: Towards a better understanding of relative age effects and gender-specific considerations

This study aimed to evaluate youth-to-senior transition and the relative age effect in Italian female football national teams. Birthdate data of 774 female players selected for Under 17 (N = 416), 19 (N = 265) and National Senior team (N = 93) were analysed. The youth-to-senior transition rate was determined by the number of youth players competing in the Senior National team (and vice versa), whilst birth quarter (Q) distributions with a chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Only 17.4% of youth players were able to be selected for the Senior National team, whereas 31.2% of the players reached the high-senior level without being selected for youth age groups. Data revealed a skewed birth date distribution in Under 17 and 19 teams (on average, Q1 = 35.6% vs Q4 = 18.5%) but not in the Senior National team. Youth players born in Q1 were two times more likely to be selected than in Q4. In Under 17, goalkeepers, defenders, and midfielders of Q1 players were overrepresented. However, Q4 players recorded higher conversion rates than Q1 (Q1 = 16.4% vs. Q4 = 25.0%). National youth experience may not be a prerequisite for being selected at the senior level. Moreover, this confers a higher probability of playing in the National Senior team than players not selected in youth rosters.

The Influence of Contextual Factors on the Relative Age Effect in Male International Rugby Union: The Impact of Sociocultural Influences and Playing Position

The purpose of this study is not only to establish whether the relative age effect (RAE) exists in male international rugby union players, but also to investigate the impact of sociocultural influences (i.e., northern and southern hemispheres) and playing position (i.e., backs, forwards, and scrum-halves). The birth date and the playing position of 7144 senior male professional rugby players included in the rosters of the season 2020−2021 were collected from the top 10 nations of the World Rugby rankings (i.e., Argentina, Australia, England, France, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Scotland, South Africa, and Wales). Data were analyzed using a chi-square goodness-of-fit test to compare the observed and expected birth quarter (Q) distributions. Results showed that relatively older players were overrepresented in all the sample (p < 0.001; Q1 = 28.8% vs. Q4 = 20.3%). In players competing in both hemispheres, the RAE was weak despite a more pronounced RAE emerging for southern players. In addition, the RAE was present in backs and forwards, but inconsistent for scrum-halves. In general, the data suggest that relatively older players may be more likely to reach expertise at senior levels than their later-born peers, and that the effect was consistent in different sociocultural contexts as well as in backs and forwards.

The relative age effect in top 100 elite female tennis players in 2007-2016

The Relative Age Effect (RAE) has been the subject of many studies, but few have focused on professional athletes in individual sports. The aim of this study was to verify the existence of the RAE among elite senior female tennis players (top 100 players) in the WTA Rankings (n = 1000) in the years 2007-2016. The analysis was performed among top 100, resp. top 10 female tennis players, among players in 4 age subgroups and among left-handed (LH) and right-handed (RH) players. The existence of the RAE was assessed with the use of chi-square test (goodness of fit). More than half of top 100 players were born in first semester: both in individual years (53.0-63.0%) and in the whole observed period (58.4%). Significant RAE (ES medium) was observed in top 100 female players only in 2012 and 2016; significant RAE (ES small) was detected in the period of 2007-2016. Among the top 10 players, significant RAE (ES medium) was demonstrated during the whole period. No significant RAE (ES medium) was detected in the 17-18y subgroups, significant in 19-24y and 25-30y (ES small) as well as in 31-36y (ES medium). Although significant RAE was observed in the subgroups of LH and RH female players, ES was large only in the LH. The results contribute to the expansion of the knowledge about the reduction of the RAE existence in adulthood among coaches, athletes and tennis officials.