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Navas-Martín MÁ, Cuerdo-Vilches T, López-Bueno JA, Díaz J, Linares C, Sánchez-Martínez G. Human adaptation to heat in the context of climate change: A conceptual framework. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 252:118803. [PMID: 38565417 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118803] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2023] [Revised: 03/21/2024] [Accepted: 03/25/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is causing serious damage to natural and social systems, as well as having an impact on human health. Among the direct effects of climate change is the rise in global surface temperatures and the increase in the frequency, duration, intensity and severity of heat waves. In addition, understanding of the adaptation process of the exposed population remains limited, posing a challenge in accurately estimating heat-related morbidity and mortality. In this context, this study seeks to establish a conceptual framework that would make it easier to understand and organise knowledge about human adaptation to heat and the factors that may influence this process. An inductive approach based on grounded theory was used, through the analysis of case studies connecting concepts. The proposed conceptual framework is made up of five components (climate change, vulnerability, health risks of heat, axes of inequality and health outcomes), three heat-adaptation domains (physiological, cultural and political), two levels (individual and social), and the pre-existing before a heat event. The application of this conceptual framework facilitates the assistance of decision-makers in planning and implementing effective adaptation measures. Recognizing the importance of addressing heat adaptation as a health problem that calls for political solutions and social changes. Accordingly, this requires a multidisciplinary approach that would foster the participation and collaboration of multiple actors for the purpose of proposing effective measures to address the health impact of the rise in temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín
- Programme in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education (UNED), Madrid, Spain; National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain.
| | - Teresa Cuerdo-Vilches
- Eduardo Torroja Construction Sciences Institute (IETCC), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Julio Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
| | - Cristina Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
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Lloyd SJ, Striessnig E, Achebak H, Hajat S, Muttarak R, Quijal-Zamorano M, Rizzi S, Vielma C, Ballester J. Remeasuring the influence of ageing on heat-related mortality in Spain, 1980 to 2018. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 248:118408. [PMID: 38311205 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2023] [Revised: 01/19/2024] [Accepted: 02/01/2024] [Indexed: 02/10/2024]
Abstract
Climate change and population ageing are converging challenges that are expected to significantly worsen the health impacts of high temperatures. We aimed to remeasure the implications of ageing for heat-related mortality by comparing time trends based on chronological age (number of years already lived) with those derived from the application of state-of-the-art demographic methodology which better captures the dynamics of evolving longevity: prospective age (number of years still to be lived). We conducted a nationwide time-series analysis of 13 regions in Spain over 1980-2018 using all-cause mortality microdata for people aged 65+ and annual life tables from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics, and daily mean temperatures from E-OBS. Based on confounder-adjusted quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate meta-analysis in moving 15-year timeslices, we assessed sex-specific changes in absolute risk and impacts for heat-related mortality at extreme and moderate temperatures, for chronological and prospective age groups. In the conventional chronological age analysis, absolute risk fell over the study period (e.g. females, extreme heat: -54%; moderate heat: -23%); after accounting for rising longevity, the prospective age analysis, however, found a smaller decline in risk for extreme heat (-15%) and a rise for moderate heat (+46%). Additionally, while the chronological age analysis suggested a shift in mortality towards higher ages, the prospective age analysis showed that over the study period, people of largely the same (prospective) age were impacted. Further, the prospective age analysis revealed excess risk in females (compared to males) rose from 20% to 27% for extreme heat, and from 40% to 70% for moderate heat. Assessing the implications of ageing using a prospective age perspective showed the urgency of re-doubling risk reduction efforts, including accelerating healthy ageing programs that incorporate climate considerations. The age patterns of impacts suggested that such actions have the potential to mitigate ageing-related heat-health threats to generate climate change-ready, healthy societies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Erich Striessnig
- Department of Demography, University of Vienna, Vienna, 1010, Austria.
| | - Hicham Achebak
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, 08003, Spain; National Institute of Health and Medical Research (Inserm), Paris, 75013, UK
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Raya Muttarak
- Department of Statistical Sciences "Paolo Fortunati", University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy, 40126
| | | | - Silvia Rizzi
- The Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, DK-5320, Denmark
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Navas-Martín MÁ, Ovalle-Perandones MA, López-Bueno JA, Díaz J, Linares C, Sánchez-Martínez G. Population adaptation to heat as seen through the temperature-mortality relationship, in the context of the impact of global warming on health: A scoping review. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 908:168441. [PMID: 37949135 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Revised: 11/07/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is the greatest threat to human health, with one of its direct effects being global warming and its impact on health. Currently, the world is experiencing an increase in the mean global temperature, but this increase affects different populations to different degrees. This is due to the fact that individual, demographic, geographical and social factors influence vulnerability and the capacity to adapt. Adaptation is the process of adjusting to the current or envisaged climate and its effects, with the aim of mitigating harm and taking advantage of the beneficial opportunities. There are different ways of measuring the effectiveness of adaptation, and the most representative indicator is via the time trend in the temperature-mortality relationship. Despite the rise in the number of studies that have examined the temperature-mortality relationship in recent years, there are very few that have analysed whether a particular population has or has not adapted to heat. We conducted a scoping review that met the following criteria, namely: including all persons; considering the heat adaptation concept; and covering the context of the impact of global warming on health and mortality. A total of 23 studies were selected. This review found very few studies targeting adaptation to heat in the human population and a limited number of countries carrying out research in this field, something that highlights the lack of research in this area. It is therefore crucial for political decision-makers to support studies that serve to enhance our comprehension of long-term adaptation to heat and its impact on the health of the human population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín
- Doctorate Programme in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education (UNED), Madrid, Spain; National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain.
| | | | | | - Julio Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
| | - Cristina Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
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Navas-Martín MÁ, López-Bueno JA, Ascaso-Sánchez MS, Follos F, Vellón JM, Mirón IJ, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J, Linares C. Territory Differences in Adaptation to Heat among Persons Aged 65 Years and Over in Spain (1983-2018). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4168. [PMID: 36901177 PMCID: PMC10002076 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20054168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is currently regarded as the greatest global threat to human health, and its health-related consequences take different forms according to age, sex, socioeconomic level, and type of territory. The aim of this study is to ascertain the differences in vulnerability and the heat-adaptation process through the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) among the Spanish population aged ≥65 years by territorial classification. A retrospective, longitudinal, ecological time-series study, using provincial data on daily mortality and maximum daily temperature across the period 1983-2018, was performed, differentiating between urban and nonurban populations. The MMTs in the study period were higher for the ≥65-year age group in urban provinces, with a mean value of 29.6 °C (95%CI 29.2-30.0) versus 28.1 °C (95%CI 27.7-28.5) in nonurban provinces. This difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In terms of adaptation levels, higher average values were obtained for nonurban areas, with values of 0.12 (95%CI -0.13-0.37), than for urban areas, with values of 0.09 (95%CI -0.27-0.45), though this difference was not statistically significant (p < 0.05). These findings may contribute to better planning by making it possible to implement more specific public health prevention plans. Lastly, they highlight the need to conduct studies on heat-adaptation processes, taking into account various differential factors, such as age and territory.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Doctorate Program in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education, 28015 Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Fernando Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol, 15401 A Coruña, Spain
| | | | - Isidro Juan Mirón
- Regional Health Authority of Castile La Mancha, 45500 Torrijos, Spain
| | | | | | - Julio Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Cristina Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
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