GDF-15 Predicts In-Hospital Mortality of Critically Ill Patients with Acute Kidney Injury Requiring Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy: A Multicenter Prospective Study

Is an MRI-derived anatomical measure of dementia risk also a measure of brain aging?

Machine learning methods have been applied to estimate measures of brain aging from neuroimages. However, only rarely have these measures been examined in the context of biologic age. Here, we investigated associations of an MRI-based measure of dementia risk, the Alzheimer's disease pattern similarity (AD-PS) scores, with measures used to calculate biological age. Participants were those from visit 5 of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study with cognitive status adjudication, proteomic data, and AD-PS scores available. The AD-PS score estimation is based on previously reported machine learning methods. We evaluated associations of the AD-PS score with all-cause mortality. Sensitivity analyses using only cognitively normal (CN) individuals were performed treating CNS-related causes of death as competing risk. AD-PS score was examined in association with 32 proteins measured, using a Somalogic platform, previously reported to be associated with age. Finally, associations with a deficit accumulation index (DAI) based on a count of 38 health conditions were investigated. All analyses were adjusted for age, race, sex, education, smoking, hypertension, and diabetes. The AD-PS score was significantly associated with all-cause mortality and with levels of 9 of the 32 proteins. Growth/differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and pleiotrophin remained significant after accounting for multiple-testing and when restricting the analysis to CN participants. A linear regression model showed a significant association between DAI and AD-PS scores overall. While the AD-PS scores were created as a measure of dementia risk, our analyses suggest that they could also be capturing brain aging.

Machine Learning Prediction Models for Mortality in Intensive Care Unit Patients with Lactic Acidosis

Background: Lactic acidosis is the most common cause of anion gap metabolic acidosis in the intensive care unit (ICU), associated with poor outcomes including mortality. We sought to compare machine learning (ML) approaches versus logistic regression analysis for prediction of mortality in lactic acidosis patients admitted to the ICU. Methods: We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database to identify ICU adult patients with lactic acidosis (serum lactate ≥4 mmol/L). The outcome of interest was hospital mortality. We developed prediction models using four ML approaches consisting of random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), artificial neural network (ANN), and statistical modeling with forward stepwise logistic regression using the testing dataset. We then assessed model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, precision, error rate, Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), F1 score, and assessed model calibration using the Brier score, in the independent testing dataset. Results: Of 1919 lactic acidosis ICU patients, 1535 and 384 were included in the training and testing dataset, respectively. Hospital mortality was 30%. RF had the highest AUROC at 0.83, followed by logistic regression 0.81, XGBoost 0.81, ANN 0.79, and DT 0.71. In addition, RF also had the highest accuracy (0.79), MCC (0.45), F1 score (0.56), and lowest error rate (21.4%). The RF model was the most well-calibrated. The Brier score for RF, DT, XGBoost, ANN, and multivariable logistic regression was 0.15, 0.19, 0.18, 0.19, and 0.16, respectively. The RF model outperformed multivariable logistic regression model, SOFA score (AUROC 0.74), SAP II score (AUROC 0.77), and Charlson score (AUROC 0.69). Conclusion: The ML prediction model using RF algorithm provided the highest predictive performance for hospital mortality among ICU patient with lactic acidosis.