Long-Term Outcomes and Risk Factors of Renal Failure Requiring Dialysis after Heart Transplantation: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Acute Kidney Injury Prognosis Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods: A Systematic Review

Rationale & Objective

Accurate estimation of in-hospital outcomes for patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) is crucial for aiding physicians in making optimal clinical decisions. We aimed to review prediction models constructed by machine learning methods for predicting AKI prognosis using administrative databases.

Study Design

A systematic review following PRISMA guidelines.

Setting & Study Populations

Adult patients diagnosed with AKI who are admitted to either hospitals or intensive care units.

Search Strategy & Sources

We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health for studies published between January 1, 2014 and February 29, 2024. Eligible studies employed machine learning models to predict in-hospital outcomes of AKI based on administrative databases.

Data Extraction

Extracted data included prediction outcomes and population, prediction models with performance, feature selection methods, and predictive features.

Analytical Approach

The included studies were qualitatively synthesized with assessments of quality and bias. We calculated the pooled model discrimination of different AKI prognoses using random-effects models.

Results

Of 3,029 studies, 27 studies were eligible for qualitative review. In-hospital outcomes for patients with AKI included acute kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, renal function recovery or kidney failure, and mortality. Compared with models predicting the mortality of patients with AKI during hospitalization, the prediction performance of models on kidney function recovery was less accurate. Meta-analysis showed that machine learning methods outperformed traditional approaches in mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.831; 95% CI, 0.799-0.859 vs 0.772; 95% CI, 0.744-0.797). The overlapping predictive features for in-hospital mortality identified from ≥6 studies were age, serum creatinine level, serum urea nitrogen level, anion gap, and white blood cell count. Similarly, age, serum creatinine level, AKI stage, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and comorbid conditions were the common predictive features for kidney function recovery.

Limitations

Many studies developed prediction models within specific hospital settings without broad validation, restricting their generalizability and clinical application.

Conclusions

Machine learning models outperformed traditional approaches in predicting mortality for patients with AKI, although they are less accurate in predicting kidney function recovery. Overall, these models demonstrate significant potential to help physicians improve clinical decision making and patient outcomes.

Registration

CRD42024535965.

Severe Acute Kidney Injury Postheart Transplantation: Analysis of Risk Factors

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication postheart transplantation and is associated with significant morbidity and increased mortality.

Methods

We conducted a single-center, retrospective, observational cohort study of 109 consecutive patients undergoing heart transplantation between September 2019 and September 2021 to determine major risk factors for, and the incidence of, severe postoperative AKI as defined by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria in the first 48-h posttransplantation and the impact that this has on mortality and dialysis dependence.

Results

One hundred nine patients were included in our study, 83 of 109 (78%) patients developed AKI, 42 (39%) developed severe AKI, and 37 (35%) required renal replacement therapy in the first-week posttransplantation. We found preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), postoperative noradrenaline dose, and the need for postoperative mechanical circulatory support to be independent risk factors for the development of severe AKI. Patients who developed severe AKI had a 19% 12-mo mortality compared with 1% for those without. Of those who survived to hospital discharge, 20% of patients in the severe AKI group required dialysis at time of hospital discharge compared with 3% in those without severe AKI.

Conclusion

Severe AKI is common after heart transplantation. Preoperative kidney function, postoperative vasoplegia with high requirements for vasoactive drugs, and graft dysfunction with the need for mechanical circulatory supports were independently associated with the development of severe AKI in the first-week following heart transplantation. Severe AKI is associated with a significantly increased mortality and dialysis dependence at time of hospital discharge.

Long-term post-transplantation outcomes in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Single-center 35-year experience

BACKGROUND

Heart transplantation (HT) is the only option for most patients with end-stage heart failure and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) who fail medical therapy. Data on the long-term outcomes post-transplant in HCM individuals remain scarce.

METHODS

We analyzed data of 319 adult patients who underwent HT between 1984 and 2019. Patients were followed for cardiac allograft rejection, cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), death, or re-transplantation.

RESULTS

Outcomes of 24 patients with HCM, 160 with ischemic, and 135 with dilated cardiomyopathy were compared. During a mean follow-up of 11.6 ± 7.2 (max 27.8), 16.7 ± 8.2 (max 32.7), and 16.1 ± 9.7 (max 34.6) years after HT in hypertrophic, ischemic, and dilated cardiomyopathy groups, respectively: 10-year survival rate was 67%, 62%, 69%, respectively (p = .04). Post-transplantation, HCM individuals more often than the other two studied groups required prolonged inotropic support (37%, 12%, 17%, respectively, p = .02), temporary mechanical circulatory support (45%, 13%, 14%, respectively, p < .01), and renal replacement therapy immediately post-HT (55%, 19%, 24%, respectively, p < .01). No significant inter-group differences were noted in the 10-year freedom from acute allograft rejection (38%, 46%, 43%, respectively, p = .38) or 10-year freedom from CAV (88%, 78%, 81%, respectively, p = .57).

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term post-transplant prognosis of adult patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is favorable despite more challenging immediate post-HT course.

Angiotensin II type 1 receptor antibodies and native kidney function in pediatric liver and intestinal transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Angiotensin II type-1 receptor antibody (AT1R-Ab) has been associated with vascular injury and kidney dysfunction in pediatric kidney transplant recipients. The role of AT1R-Ab in the development of chronic kidney disease in pediatric liver and intestinal transplant recipients has not been explored.

METHODS

Twenty-five pediatric intestinal transplant recipients and 79 pediatric liver transplant recipients had AT1R-Ab levels measured at varying time points in the post-transplant period. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was determined using creatinine based CKiD U25 equation and measured at time of AT1R-Ab measurement, at 1 year post-AT1R-Ab measurement, at 5 years post-AT1R-Ab measurement, and at the most recent routine clinic visit. The prevalence of hypertension and antihypertensive medication use were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Younger age at time of AT1R-Ab measurement was associated with AT1R-Ab positivity in liver transplant recipients. There was no association between AT1R-Ab status and change in eGFR, prevalence of hypertension, or use of antihypertensive medications at the described time points.

CONCLUSIONS

AT1R-Ab positivity was not associated with a decline in eGFR or hypertension in pediatric liver and intestinal transplant recipients. Further studies are needed using other markers of kidney function, such as cystatin C, to validate this finding. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Clinical trends, risk factors, and temporal effects of post-transplant dialysis on outcomes following orthotopic heart transplantation in the 2018 United States heart allocation system

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the current clinical trends, risk factors, and temporal effects of post-transplant dialysis on outcomes following orthotopic heart transplantation after the 2018 United States adult heart allocation policy change.

METHODS

The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) registry was queried to analyze adult orthotopic heart transplant recipients after the October 18, 2018 heart allocation policy change. The cohort was stratified according to the need for post-transplant de novo dialysis. The primary outcome was survival. Propensity score-matching was performed to compare the outcomes between 2 similar cohorts with and without post-transplant de novo dialysis. The impact of post-transplant dialysis chronicity was evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify risk factors for post-transplant dialysis.

RESULTS

A total of 7,223 patients were included in this study. Out of these, 968 patients (13.4%) developed post-transplant renal failure requiring de novo dialysis. Both 1-year (73.2% vs 94.8%) and 2-year (66.3% vs 90.6%) survival rates were lower in the dialysis cohort (p < 0.001), and the lower survival rates persisted in a propensity-matched comparison. Recipients requiring only temporary post-transplant dialysis had significantly improved 1-year (92.5% vs 71.6%) and 2-year (86.6 % vs 52.2%) survival rates compared to the chronic post-transplant dialysis group (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis demonstrated low pretransplant estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) and bridge with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) were strong predictors of post-transplant dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that post-transplant dialysis is associated with significantly increased morbidity and mortality in the new allocation system. Post-transplant survival is affected by the chronicity of post-transplant dialysis. Low pretransplant eGFR and ECMO are strong risk factors for post-transplant dialysis.

Combined Heart-Kidney Transplantation: Indications, Outcomes, and Controversies

Renal dysfunction, a prevalent comorbidity in advanced heart failure, is associated with significant morbidity and mortality after heart transplantation. In the recent era, the field of combined heart-kidney transplantation has experienced great success in the treatment of both renal and cardiac dysfunction in end-stage disease states, and the number of transplants has increased dramatically. In this review, we discuss appropriate indications and selection criteria, overall and organ-specific outcomes, and future perspectives in the field of combined heart-kidney transplantation.

Risk factors of renal replacement therapy after heart transplantation: a retrospective single-center study

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) and renal replacement therapy (RRT) are common after heart transplantation (HT). The need for RRT has been reported to be one of the most important predictors of a poor prognosis after HT. Therefore, it is important to early identify risk factors of RRT after HT. However, in the heart transplantation setting, the risk factors are less well studied, and some of the conclusions are controversial. This study aimed to identify the clinical predictors of RRT after HT.

METHODS

This single-center, retrospective study from January 2010 to June 2021 analyzed risk factors (pre-, intra-, and postoperative characteristics) of 163 patients who underwent HT. The endpoint of the study was RRT within 7 days of HT. Risk factors were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Fifty-five (33.74%) recipients required RRT within 7 days of HT. Factors independently associated with RRT after HT were as follows: a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min per 1.73 m² [odds ratio (OR) =3.123; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.183-8.244; P=0.022], a dose of intraoperative methylprednisolone >10 mg/kg (OR =3.197; 95% CI: 1.290-7.923; P=0.012), the use of mechanical circulatory support (MCS) during surgery (OR =4.903; 95% CI: 1.628-14.766; P=0.005), a cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time ≥5 hours (OR =3.929; 95% CI: 1.222-12.634; P=0.022), and postoperative serum total bilirubin (TBIL) ≥60 umol/L (OR =5.105; 95% CI: 1.868-13.952; P=0.001). Protective factors were higher postoperative serum albumin (OR =0.907; 95% CI: 0.837-0.983; P=0.017) and higher postoperative left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (OR =0.908; 95% CI: 0.838-0.985; P=0.020).

CONCLUSIONS

A low preoperative eGFR, a high intraoperative dose of methylprednisolone, a long CPB time, the use of mechanical circulatory support, and a high postoperative TBIL were risk factors for RRT after HT. While a high postoperative serum albumin level and a high left ventricular ejection fraction were protective factors. Understanding these risk factors may help us identify high-risk patients and intervene early.

Incidence and long-term outcome of heart transplantation patients who develop postoperative renal failure requiring dialysis

BACKGROUND

Acute renal failure requiring dialysis after heart transplantation remains a significant clinical issue because of its increasing incidence. We aimed to investigate its time trends, clinical predictors, and long-term outcomes.

METHODS

Adult heart transplantation recipients registered in the United Network for Organ Sharing registry between 2009 and 2020 were identified. The patients were grouped according to the requirement for dialysis in the postoperative heart transplantation period. The independent risk predictors were identified, and the association between post-heart transplantation renal failure requiring dialysis and long-term mortality accounting for re-transplantation was investigated.

RESULTS

A total of 28,170 patients were included in the study, of which 3,371 (12%) required dialysis immediately post-heart transplantation. The incidence increased from 7.9% to 13.9% during the study period. Longer ischemic time, serum creatinine at transplantation >1.2 mg/dL, prior cardiac surgery, higher recipient body mass index, support of mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and history of congenital heart disease or restrictive/hypertrophic cardiomyopathy were its predictors (all p < 0.05). Patients on posttransplant dialysis had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 5.2, 95% CI: 4.7-5.7, p < 0.001), 30 day mortality (aHR: 7.7, 95% CI: 6.3-9.6, p < 0.001) and 1 year mortality (aHR: 7.5, 95% CI: 6.6-8.6, p < 0.001). Post-transplant dialysis was associated with a risk of treated rejection at 1 year.

CONCLUSION

Acute renal failure requiring dialysis after heart transplantation is associated with significantly worse 30 day and long-term mortalities, and thus, early identification of high-risk patients is crucial to prevent severe renal complications.

Risk Factors for Acute Kidney Injury Requiring Renal Replacement Therapy after Orthotopic Heart Transplantation in Patients with Preserved Renal Function

Acute kidney injury (AKI), requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT). is a serious complication after orthotopic heart transplantation (HTX). In patients with preexisting impaired renal function, postoperative AKI is unsurprising. However, even in patients with preserved renal function, AKI requiring RRT is frequent. Therefore, this study aimed to identify risk factors associated with postoperative AKI requiring RRT after HTX in this sub-cohort. This retrospective cohort study included patients ≥ 18 years of age with preserved renal function (defined as preoperative glomerular filtration rate ≥ 60 mL/min) who underwent HTX between 2010 and 2021. In total, 107 patients were included in the analysis (mean age 52 ± 12 years, 78.5% male, 45.8% AKI requiring RRT). Based on univariate logistic regression, use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, postoperative infection, levosimendan therapy, duration of norepinephrine (NE) therapy and maximum daily increase in tacrolimus plasma levels were chosen to be included into multivariate analysis. Duration of NE therapy and maximum daily increase in tacrolimus plasma levels remained as independent significant risk factors (NE: OR 1.01, 95%CI: 1.00–1.02, p = 0.005; increase in tacrolimus plasma level: OR 1.18, 95%CI: 1.01–1.37, p = 0.036). In conclusion, this study identified long NE therapy and maximum daily increase in tacrolimus plasma levels as risk factors for AKI requiring RRT in HTX patients with preserved renal function.

Determinants of Outcomes of Acute Kidney Injury: Clinical Predictors and Beyond

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common clinical syndrome characterized by rapid impairment of kidney function. The incidence of AKI and its severe form AKI requiring dialysis (AKI-D) has been increasing over the years. AKI etiology may be multifactorial and is substantially associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The outcome of AKI-D can vary from partial or complete recovery to transitioning to chronic kidney disease, end stage kidney disease, or even death. Predicting outcomes of patients with AKI is crucial as it may allow clinicians to guide policy regarding adequate management of this problem and offer the best long-term options to their patients in advance. In this manuscript, we will review the current evidence regarding the determinants of AKI outcomes, focusing on AKI-D.

Acute Kidney Injury After Heart Transplant: The Importance of Pulmonary Hypertension

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether relative pulmonary hypertension (PH), defined as the ratio of mean arterial pressure to mean pulmonary artery pressure, is associated with severe acute kidney injury (AKI) after heart transplant (HT).

DESIGN

An institutional review board-approved retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Tertiary care university hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 184 consecutive adult patients who underwent HT between January 2009 and December 2017 were included, and were followed up through December 2019. Using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes classification, recipients were categorized into two groups: patients who developed stage 3 AKI (severe AKI) and those with minor or without AKI (nonsevere AKI) within seven days after transplant.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Of the included patients, 83.2% developed AKI, in whom 40.8%, 19.6%, and 22.8% were stage 1, 2, and 3, respectively. With use of the multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent risk factors for stage 3 AKI post-HT included preoperative relative PH (odds ratio [OR]: 1.62, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.05-2.49, p = 0.028), central venous-to-pulmonary capillary wedge pressure ratio ≥0.86 (OR: 3.59, 95% CI: 1.13-11.43, p = 0.030), and postoperative right ventricular dysfunction (OR: 3.63, 95% CI: 1.50-8.75, p = 0.004). Conversely, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.97-1.00, p = 0.143) was not related to the development of stage 3 AKI post-HT.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative relative PH, central venous-to-pulmonary capillary wedge pressure ratio, and postoperative right ventricular failure by echocardiographic assessment were associated with severe AKI post-HT.