Kalra A, Bachina P, Shou BL, Hwang J, Barshay M, Kulkarni S, Sears I, Eickhoff C, Bermudez CA, Brodie D, Ventetuolo CE, Kim BS, Whitman GJR, Abbasi A, Cho SM. Predicting Acute Brain Injury in Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Patients with Tree-Based Machine Learning: Analysis of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry.
RESEARCH SQUARE 2024:rs.3.rs-3848514. [PMID:
38260374 PMCID:
PMC10802703 DOI:
10.21203/rs.3.rs-3848514/v1]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
Objective
To determine if machine learning (ML) can predict acute brain injury (ABI) and identify modifiable risk factors for ABI in venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) patients.
Design
Retrospective cohort study of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) Registry (2009-2021).
Setting
International, multicenter registry study of 676 ECMO centers.
Patients
Adults (≥18 years) supported with VA-ECMO or extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR).
Interventions
None.
Measurements and Main Results
Our primary outcome was ABI: central nervous system (CNS) ischemia, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), brain death, and seizures. We utilized Random Forest, CatBoost, LightGBM and XGBoost ML algorithms (10-fold leave-one-out cross-validation) to predict and identify features most important for ABI. We extracted 65 total features: demographics, pre-ECMO/on-ECMO laboratory values, and pre-ECMO/on-ECMO settings.Of 35,855 VA-ECMO (non-ECPR) patients (median age=57.8 years, 66% male), 7.7% (n=2,769) experienced ABI. In VA-ECMO (non-ECPR), the area under the receiver-operator characteristics curves (AUC-ROC) to predict ABI, CNS ischemia, and ICH was 0.67, 0.67, and 0.62, respectively. The true positive, true negative, false positive, false negative, positive, and negative predictive values were 33%, 88%, 12%, 67%, 18%, and 94%, respectively for ABI. Longer ECMO duration, higher 24h ECMO pump flow, and higher on-ECMO PaO2 were associated with ABI.Of 10,775 ECPR patients (median age=57.1 years, 68% male), 16.5% (n=1,787) experienced ABI. The AUC-ROC for ABI, CNS ischemia, and ICH was 0.72, 0.73, and 0.69, respectively. The true positive, true negative, false positive, false negative, positive, and negative predictive values were 61%, 70%, 30%, 39%, 29% and 90%, respectively, for ABI. Longer ECMO duration, younger age, and higher 24h ECMO pump flow were associated with ABI.
Conclusions
This is the largest study predicting neurological complications on sufficiently powered international ECMO cohorts. Longer ECMO duration and higher 24h pump flow were associated with ABI in both non-ECPR and ECPR VA-ECMO.
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