A Comprehensive Analysis of Clinical Trials in the COVID-19 Pandemic Era

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the conduct of clinical trials: a quantitative analysis

BACKGROUND

Globally, healthcare has shouldered much of the socioeconomic brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic leading to numerous clinical trials suspended or discontinued.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the COVID-19 impact on the number of clinical trials worldwide.

METHODS

Data deposited by 219 countries in the ClinicalTrials.gov database (2007-2020) were interrogated using targeted queries. A time series model was fitted to the data for studies ongoing, initiated, or ended between 2007 Quarter (Q) 1 and 2019 Q4 to predict the expected trials number in 2020 in the COVID-19 absence. The predicted values were compared with the actual 2020 data to quantify the pandemic impact.

RESULTS

The ongoing registered trials number grew from 2007 Q1 (33,739) to 2019 Q4 (80,319). By contrast, there were markedly fewer ongoing trials in all four quarters of 2020 compared with forecasted values (1.6%-2.8% decrease). When excluding COVID-19-related studies, this disparity grew further (3.4%-5.8% decrease), to a peak of almost 5,000 fewer ongoing trials than estimated for 2020 Q2. The initiated non-COVID-19 trials number was higher than predicted in 2020 Q4 (9.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

This pandemic has impacted clinical trials. Provided that current trends persist, clinical trial activities may soon recover to at least pre-COVID-19 levels.

Uses of equipoise in discussions of the ethics of randomized controlled trials of COVID-19 therapies

Background

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the urgent need to discover effective therapies for COVID-19 prompted questions about the ethical problem of randomization along with its widely accepted solution: equipoise. In this scoping review, uses of equipoise in discussions of randomized controlled trials (RCT) of COVID-19 therapies are evaluated to answer three questions. First, how has equipoise been applied to COVID-19 research? Second, has equipoise been employed accurately? And third, do concerns about equipoise pose a barrier to the ethical conduct of COVID-19 RCTs?

Methods

Google Scholar and Pubmed were searched for articles containing substantial discussion about equipoise and COVID-19 RCTs. 347 article titles were screened, 91 full text articles were assessed, and 48 articles were included. Uses of equipoise were analyzed and abstracted into seven categories.

Results and discussion

Approximately two-thirds of articles (33/48 articles) used equipoise in a way that is consistent with the concept. They invoked equipoise to support (1) RCTs of specific therapies, (2) RCTs in general, and (3) the early termination of RCTs after achieving the primary outcome. Approximately one-third of articles (15/48 articles) used equipoise in a manner that is inconsistent with the concept. These articles argued that physician preference, widespread use of unproven therapies, patient preference, or expectation of therapeutic benefit may undermine equipoise and render RCTs unethical. In each case, the purported ethical problem can be resolved by correcting the use of equipoise.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the continued relevance of equipoise as it supports the conduct of well-conceived RCTs and provides moral guidance to physicians and researchers as they search for effective therapies for COVID-19.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12910-021-00712-5.

COVID-19: a user's guide, status of the art and an original proposal to terminate viral recurrence

The world is now entering its 9^th month of combat against a pandemic of deadly pneumonia. Started out from China in December 2019, the disease has been declared as caused by infection with a so far unknown RNA Coronavirus of the respiratory family, then named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In the absence of a vaccine, and with scientists still struggling for an effective therapy, COVID-19 (the SARS-dependent syndrome) carries up to now, a death toll of more than 590,000 (July 18,2020) undermining jobs and finance of contemporary society in all continents. Social distancing, the only measure hitherto shown to restrain virus spread, has been progressively loosened from May 2020 in some countries, leaving us in the fear of repeat attacks from the unchecked virus. We discuss the problem and propose to tentatively boost the antivirus cell machinery by using lab-made viral mimics to engage cell receptors.